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-14C night temp (Dublin) predicted by Accuweather for Jan 31st 2019

  • 17-01-2019 3:19pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,628 klaaaz


    I was browsing the usual long range forecast for cold places like Moscow and did a double take on this for Dublin for Jan 31st :). It's far off and probably inaccurate but if true, it's a record in a very long time perhaps decades? Don't think it reached -14C in Dublin in 2009/2010 back then either.

    470647.jpg


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 981 ✭✭✭ Lucreto


    A site glitch most likely but it is inAccuweather so may be not.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    I like the way they sum up the 17degree drop in temperature overnight as "colder".


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Glitch or not, AccuWeather is rubbish.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Itll be minus 17.7c in Markree (at least thats what I predicted in that min temp competition):P


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,083 ✭✭✭ stevek93


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    Glitch or not, AccuWeather is rubbish.

    What app do you use for weather?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 375 ✭✭ oLoonatic


    2 degree either side of that, surely a mistake.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,313 ✭✭✭✭ lawred2


    I like the way they sum up the 17degree drop in temperature overnight as "colder".

    And a shower..

    Is that even possible at minus 14?


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,140 ✭✭✭✭ Larbre34


    In-accuweather. An algorithm with no nuance. I tell everyone who mentions it to bin it and either use the local state met office or failing that, look out the window


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,796 ✭✭✭✭ hatrickpatrick


    stevek93 wrote: »
    What app do you use for weather?

    I don't know if they have an app, but I have yr.no's hourly forecast for Dun Laoghaire and Dublin City bookmarked on my phone's Safari. Only very rarely do they get it wrong in terms of short-term rainfall over the following three days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,360 ✭✭✭ highdef


    Saw that temp forecast earlier as well. The fact it says "mostly cloudy" AND "-14c" very much points to it being an error/glitch.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 33,549 ✭✭✭✭ RobertKK


    Based on the movie: The day after tomorrow.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,472 EdgeCase


    Definitely a glitch!
    -14ºC in Dublin is way outside normal values even in an extreme cold snap.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    stevek93 wrote: »
    What app do you use for weather?

    I don't use any weather apps, I just read MT and ME's forecast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,189 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    From the time the OP saw this forecast, I think that it would be based on the 06z GFS run. Having a look at that, it matches the forecast if you forgot about the fact that Dublin is in Ireland and not, say, Wisconsin. There is a very cold feed from the northwest on the relevant chart (not so much on the later 12z chart) and I might predict -5 C temperatures in Ireland from that chart (thicknesses reach lower than 516 dm) with snow showers.

    Perhaps the problem with the accu-weather app is that it has automated some forecast responses to charts without a complete study of the local climatology. As I said, this weather pattern would be good for -14 C in a continental climate where the arctic air was colder and not coming over a long fetch of the Atlantic.

    As to what sort of temperatures to expect in reality, various model runs continue to advertise intervals of severe cold -- in Ireland, a northerly won't get you much lower than -8 C but an arctic high of any origin sitting over the country with snow cover, or a deep easterly feed, might get below -12 C as we saw in Dec 2010. This is possible this winter and it could happen on the 29th but not with the weather sequence currently shown on the 12z GFS (the Euro only goes to the 27th at the moment).

    I think the bottom line is this -- when you're looking at your accu-weather app, at longer time frames, just assume it is a reading of the GFS model for that time frame and that it might not be calibrated precisely for the Irish climate, perhaps it also goes too warm in summer in given situations.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,785 ✭✭✭ piuswal


    klaaaz wrote: »
    I was browsing the usual long range forecast for cold places like Moscow and did a double take on this for Dublin for Jan 31st :). It's far off and probably inaccurate but if true, it's a record in a very long time perhaps decades? Don't think it reached -14C in Dublin in 2009/2010 back then either.

    470647.jpg

    see https://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Leinster/kilkenny/long.html out to 27th getting down to -3 ; -14 most unlikely, some glitch ; as someone mentioned more central continental temp


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,195 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Casement got down to -15.7 °C on Christmas morning, 2010.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    stevek93 wrote: »
    What app do you use for weather?

    No app, they’re all rubbish and a perfect waste of your time.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    this was Foxford on 22 Dec 2010

    470857.JPG


  • Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭ sigmundv


    I don't know if they have an app, but I have yr.no's hourly forecast for Dun Laoghaire and Dublin City bookmarked on my phone's Safari. Only very rarely do they get it wrong in terms of short-term rainfall over the following three days.

    Yr.no do indeed have an app. I find it to be very accurate in the short term. Having grown up in the Faroe Islands I have learned that long-term forecasts are not of much worth in an Atlantic island climate, so I'm happy with a short-term forecast, which yr.no provide me with through their app.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,939 ✭✭✭ goat2


    From the time the OP saw this forecast, I think that it would be based on the 06z GFS run. Having a look at that, it matches the forecast if you forgot about the fact that Dublin is in Ireland and not, say, Wisconsin. There is a very cold feed from the northwest on the relevant chart (not so much on the later 12z chart) and I might predict -5 C temperatures in Ireland from that chart (thicknesses reach lower than 516 dm) with snow showers.

    Perhaps the problem with the accu-weather app is that it has automated some forecast responses to charts without a complete study of the local climatology. As I said, this weather pattern would be good for -14 C in a continental climate where the arctic air was colder and not coming over a long fetch of the Atlantic.

    As to what sort of temperatures to expect in reality, various model runs continue to advertise intervals of severe cold -- in Ireland, a northerly won't get you much lower than -8 C but an arctic high of any origin sitting over the country with snow cover, or a deep easterly feed, might get below -12 C as we saw in Dec 2010. This is possible this winter and it could happen on the 29th but not with the weather sequence currently shown on the 12z GFS (the Euro only goes to the 27th at the moment).

    I think the bottom line is this -- when you're looking at your accu-weather app, at longer time frames, just assume it is a reading of the GFS model for that time frame and that it might not be calibrated precisely for the Irish climate, perhaps it also goes too warm in summer in given situations.

    no more, accu weather, for me then


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  • Registered Users Posts: 30 mrsnrub2.0


    Accuweather plays an interesting part of Michael Lewis' latest book The Fifth Risk about how disorganised Trump's transition teams were and how some companies are looking out for their best interests.

    You'd stay well clear of Accuweather after reading it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,195 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    I think maybe they got the decimal point in the wrong point and -1.4 might be more ACCUrate.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,189 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Possibly but don't forget this was based on a GFS run two weeks ago and there was that brutal cold spell being advertised with the 510 dm thickness moving down from the northeast. I think it derailed somewhere near Murmansk in the meantime.


  • Registered Users Posts: 97 ✭✭ 10fathoms


    That'll solve some of the homeless problem for our fine government.


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