Property Market 2019

AlmightyCushion

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Were there really a load of people who bought at the bottom of the market? Very few houses sold at that point so that would disagree with what you are saying. Then you have economics of mortgage deals along with the renting while waiting for prices to drop.
Give you an example a guy I knew decided that he wouldn't buy as he felt prices were too high. Meanwhile another friend bought. Friend A waited 15 years to buy and rented during this time. So when he got his mortgage there was no trackers about but the usual high rates.
5 years later Friend B has 5 years left on his mortgage friend B has 20 at a higher rate of interest. Friend A had paid 100k in rent over the 15 years and his now partner had also rented but only for 8 years or 57k. The house he bought was about 80k off the peak value so he didn't save anything really but could have bought similar 15 years earlier and his mortgage is more expensive along with the 20 years he has left. So who are the people who made massive savings? Right now rent is much more expensive and you need to save more in order to get a mortgage. Lots of people ignore the rent they paid while waiting for price drops. It is simply an expense on your purchase to be considered.

When people talk about waiting for prices to drop, they more than likely are talking about waiting a few years, not 15. Waiting a few years could realistically save you money even taking into account rent paid over that period. Of course, it also might not. If you wait 15 years I can't see how you'd save any money unless the price drop is huge.

Ray Palmer

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

When people talk about waiting for prices to drop, they more than likely are talking about waiting a few years, not 15. Waiting a few years could realistically save you money even taking into account rent paid over that period. Of course, it also might not. If you wait 15 years I can't see how you'd save any money unless the price drop is huge.

He didn't plan on waiting 15 years it was how it panned out. He reckoned the prices in late 90s were going to drop so he waited. They kept going up so after 5 years he decides they are still going to crash so hold off and they kept going up until the crash. So prices were still high but going down so he waited. Then he went to buy and the banks wouldn't give him the money so he waited more. All in all 15 years. Same can happen again easily. Then there were the people who waited and then aged out of being able to get a mortgage. Past 40 without a large amount of money/investment the banks won't give you a mortgage.

He hesitated and ended up costing more money and longer to get a house. Everything is a gamble but knowing the risks is important.

beauf

I know people who sold at the height of the last bubble. Then rented for 2-4yrs then bought back in.

Them again I know others who bought buy to let at almost peak prices and only recently got out of negative equity. But they aren't selling it's a business to them. In it for the long haul.

kippy

beauf wrote: »

I know people who sold at the height of the last bubble. Then rented for 2-4yrs then bought back in.

Them again I know others who bought buy to let at almost peak prices and only recently got out of negative equity. But they aren't selling it's a business to them. In it for the long haul.

Timing and luck are big factors in those scenarios.
There's a massive amount of risk involved also.

Again, it all depends on your situation and variables involved for you personally but if you can afford the mortgage repayments (+headroom) for a property that you see as fitting your needs over the medium/long term then it can be a no brainer to buy property.

I am seeing many people near myself who want to buy a property in the locality as they are currently renting with young kids. Their mortgage repayments would be less than their rent repayments and in many cases they have approval for mortgages, however there simply aren't enough properties on the market and those that come to market are either bought by the council and/or slightly out of their price range. Planning is getting turned down for estates in the locality.
These people are working and trying their best but extremely frustrated that they cannot get a property of their own to take them outside of the high risk rental sector - which is even more messy for them as they have kids attending local schools.

I'm not sure what my point is here - but for these people I am talking about - they want to buy now and can afford to buy now but there simply aren't enough houses being built in the locality or coming onto the market.

JJJackal

beauf wrote: »

I know people who sold at the height of the last bubble. Then rented for 2-4yrs then bought back in.

Them again I know others who bought buy to let at almost peak prices and only recently got out of negative equity. But they aren't selling it's a business to them. In it for the long haul.

Negative equity really only applies if you plan to sell or can’t make your repayments.

JohnCleary

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Were there really a load of people who bought at the bottom of the market?

Yes, there were. Although these were mainly investment properties.

Let's just say "I know of someone" who bought units at the first Allsop (think it was 2013), sold the units off individually in 2018. On average, the units were sold for 3.3 times what they were bought for. You also have the rental income during the period.

Timing, cash, luck.... and balls.

Ray Palmer

JohnCleary wrote: »

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Were there really a load of people who bought at the bottom of the market?

Yes, there were. Although these were mainly investment properties.

Let's just say "I know of someone" who bought units at the first Allsop (think it was 2013), sold the units off individually in 2018. On average, the units were sold for 3.3 times what they were bought for. You also have the rental income during the period.

Timing, cash, luck.... and balls.

You know one person but claiming there is much more. There would clearly be evidence of this given the claim it was a large amount of people. Where is the evidence other than claim of knowing a single person?

Before I brought up this subject here because there were so many people claiming they would do similar. I don't recall a single person coming back to say they did it. There were people complaining they couldn't get mortgages though. Are you also saying the bottom of the market was 2012 ?
The claim was also mostly about personal purchases as it is again here so again doesn't match up.

beauf

JohnCleary wrote: »

Y...Timing, cash, luck.... and balls.

Educated guessing though.

Ray Palmer wrote: »

...
The claim was also mostly about personal purchases as it is again here so again doesn't match up.

People don't tend to give away how they make money though. Especially if they think its a good time to get out before the herd.

beauf

That said unless demand disappears overnight and supply explodes, the market is unlikely to change much in the short term.

MayoSalmon

In the 30 years the only thing to dramatically crash house prices in Dublin was a global recession.

Dublin property market will always be a very good investment.

Ray Palmer

beauf wrote: »

JohnCleary wrote: »

Y...Timing, cash, luck.... and balls.

Educated guessing though.

Ray Palmer wrote: »

...
The claim was also mostly about personal purchases as it is again here so again doesn't match up.

People don't tend to give away how they make money though. Especially if they think its a good time to get out before the herd.

True but you see evidence of their actions which they can't hide. The reality was houses weren't for sale to buy to make it a viable thing to do. Supply and demand, there was no supply at the low prices of houses around me. People just weren't selling so nobody could buy cheap and sell later. There are more houses for sale in the last 6 months around where I live than there were between 2008 and 2014.
Some people are pointing to that as an indication of an impending crash. It isn't it is an indication people will supply at current prices. You couldn't buy a house near me at the crash prices so the price meant very little.

beauf

Depends on locations.


https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-2009

Ballpark figures, based on the 2006 Census and daft.ie listings, suggest that as much as 10% of properties are for sale in counties like Roscommon, Cavan and Leitrim, compared to less than 5% elsewhere. It won't be impossible to sell properties in these counties in coming years, but sellers must be realistic about the value of their property in a flooded market.

Ray Palmer

Home vacancy rates run at about 10% in Ireland. Less means a housing shortage. Using 2006 figures makes the calculation vastly inaccurate.

beauf

But vastly more inaccurate than anecdotal stories?

... I know in my area there was negligible supply of new or old property for many years. However there was property in other areas.
We had Ghosts estates and Apartments. But not where people wanted to be. But also the ability to borrow was vastly reduced.

Sheeps

Paddy Cosgrave pointing towards a potential downturn in the coming months.

https://twitter.com/paddycosgrave/status/1133763589058248704

Twenty Grand

https://twitter.com/paddycosgrave/status/1133763590786310144

Wingman2010

Sheeps wrote: »

Paddy Cosgrave pointing towards a potential downturn in the coming months.

https://twitter.com/paddycosgrave/status/1133763589058248704

I saw that tweet earlier. But can we take this fella serious? He is just trying to spread some negativity and fear in Ireland. He would get great joy to see a crash here and then he would shout from the rooftops that he predicted it zzzzz

Lumen

Whatever about his prediction, the complete obscurity of his method is disappointing.

cameramonkey

Wingman2010 wrote: »

I saw that tweet earlier. But can we take this fella serious? He is just trying to spread some negativity and fear in Ireland. He would get great joy to see a crash here and then he would shout from the rooftops that he predicted it zzzzz

i think his tweets are very positive. It means if true that housing will be more affordable for more people. If multi year declines are kicking in then it would get even more affordable. I say this as someone who has stopped trying to predict the property market and as someone who has bought in at exactly the time he says may be the height of the market in Dublin. Did he mention a crash?

awec

Paddy Cosgrave is a bluffer. Not just on property.

"Fancy AI". Ha. :pac:

lawred2

He's a total prat

There's one trait that I can't stomach in anyone and that's the smugness of self satisfaction.

He has it in abundance.

Sheeps

Wingman2010 wrote: »

I saw that tweet earlier. But can we take this fella serious? He is just trying to spread some negativity and fear in Ireland. He would get great joy to see a crash here and then he would shout from the rooftops that he predicted it zzzzz

Leaving aside what you think of him as a person, you can take what he says seriously. They're big on big data in Web Summit and he's been quite acurately picking up on micro crashes in the market that usually take a good month or two to make it to mainstream news. His trackrecord has been fairly impecable for a crude non-hedonic analysis of the property market.

lawred2

Sheeps wrote: »

Leaving aside what you think of him as a person, you can take what he says seriously. They're big on big data in Web Summit and he's been quite acurately picking up on micro crashes in the market that usually take a good month or two to make it to mainstream news. His trackrecord has been fairly impecable for a crude non-hedonic analysis of the property market.

where is it?

Lumen

WTF is a "micro crash"?

Twenty Grand

awec wrote: »

Paddy Cosgrave is a bluffer. Not just on property.

"Fancy AI". Ha. :pac:

If he releases his sources we can verify it.

Doubt that'll happen.

Sheeps

lawred2 wrote: »

where is it?

He's been posting a lot of the results on twitter.

Lumen wrote: »

WTF is a "micro crash"?

A micro crash is a crash in a particular sub-market, for example 4/5 bed semi-detached homes in certain parts of South Dublin. It's a specific market for a specific subset of people of the overall market who have a different set of economic variables and make different purcahasing choices to thes rest of the market.

Amirani

Sheeps wrote: »

He's been posting a lot of the results on twitter.



A micro crash is a crash in a particular sub-market, for example 4/5 bed semi-detached homes in certain parts of South Dublin. It's a specific market for a specific subset of people of the overall market who have a different set of economic variables and make different purcahasing choices to thes rest of the market.

Anyone with half a brain could look at CSO demography statistics and realise that demand for 4/5 bed houses is likely to be declining.

riddles

Has supply not increased and also increasing which I guess impacts price?

hmmm

Sheeps wrote: »

His trackrecord has been fairly impecable for a crude non-hedonic analysis of the property market.

This is the first I've ever heard from him on property prices, would be interested to know more. It doesn't look like anything earth shattering in terms of an observation, we can all read the CSO data.

Of all the commentators on the Irish property market, Ronan Lyons is probably the only one I personally really listen to as he seems to draw good sensible conclusions from his data, and I remember he produced really good stuff before the crash. All the rest of the usual commentators have been right some times, wrong other times, and very wrong at particular times, and like the sound of their own voices a bit too much.

Reversal

There is one thing that this time has in common with 2007? The aggression displayed by invested parties towards "naysayers"...