Property Market 2019

Mic 1972

Sloppy_Joe wrote: »

Says the figures that building numbers have dropped.

you stated that builders are literally walking away, that's just drama LOL

There was a 2% drop in asking price in Dublin which means nothing to the potential profit of building new homes. If builders were able to make a profit 2-3 years ago when prices were lower, sure they are making a profit now.
From the Irish Time below, builders are not at all walking away, they are finding it difficult to get funding for additional building until those unsold inventories are reduced, Mr O’Leary said

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/housing-policy-under-fresh-scrutiny-as-home-building-stalls-in-dublin-1.4075676

if you look at the November data which was publish a couple of days ago you can see that sales volumes from October are higher than September and the PPR price was also slightly higher. Demand is clearly there, people can't pay crazy prices due to lending rule, so builders will continue to build and sell at current prices.
No need for drama

Mic 1972

Sheeps wrote: »

If builders can't turn a profit on houses during a housing crisis, they shouldn't be building. It's very simple. Lending rules stay, build for demand, profit.

But there is no crising, prices are stable as per recent reprots, asking prices are coming down to allow for quicker sale.
Builders have plenty of room for profit, they have been making a profit for the last few years when prices were lower than now

Sloppy_Joe

JJJackal wrote: »

Yes, I am saying they wont take your house of you here; and if they do it takes many many years. There is lots of evidence in the newspapers and repossession rates to support this.

Banks are a business - they have to protect themselves. Do you think the banks should give everyone who comes in whatever amount of money they want? And yes banks should only lend to a person what they think the person can pay back

In that case why not allow 5 x salary then?

JJJackal

Sloppy_Joe wrote: »

In that case why not allow 5 x salary then?

Because when you cannot pay back your house, I dont want to pay your debts

Sloppy_Joe

JJJackal wrote: »

Because when you cannot pay back your house, I dont want to pay your debts

So you agree they are only protecting banks and that renters can go **** themselves?

JJJackal

Sloppy_Joe wrote: »

So you agree they are only protecting banks and that renters can go **** themselves?

I said I dont want to pay back your debt.

I actually didnt actually mention the banks.

Btw do you think banks shouldnt be protected?

I am beginning to think you are just making random statements to be controversial; with nothing to back them up

riclad

There,s no easy solution to increasing supply and also stopping the banks from reckless lending,
maybe loosen up the rules for first time buyers who buy a new house.
This should not have a major effect on most transactions,
eg most people buy a house thats more than 10 years old .
It might increase supply but it might just enable the builders to increase house prices .
rules might be loosened for certain workers,
nurse,s ,gardai, emergency service workers .
The banks have shown they have zero sense of responsiblity or caution,
they will lend as much as they can to increase profits ,even if it leads to a boom ,bust cycle in the future .
they need to be regulated .

OwlsZat

The chairman of the Irish Home Builders Association was on the radio spelling out that sales are slowing across the country and there is a volume of available stock in most new developments. He calls out that prudent lending restrictions are making the properties too expensive for new buyers.

The inputs are land, materials and wages. Leaving wages alone the Government is the biggest land hoarder in the country and it can release significant amounts of land to build on at anytime. Material costs are also partially under Government control. David McW has called out that there is a duopoly in the sales of building materials here. He uses concrete as an example cited as twice as expensive as the UK. Obviously, Government should setup a task-force to review/investigate/correct this. Further to this, given the housing crisis it could also choose to temporarily reduce the VAT paid on building materials. Much like was done in the tourism sector.

When you consider the list of available options the housing minister has, it's not surprising his performance almost collapsed the Government. Don't think they will be so lucky next time around.

riclad

The government could give large sites to developers free with one condition, 20 per cent of units must be avaidable for social housing.
I presume buying a site in dublin or other citys is a large part of the cost of a house .

Bluefoam

riclad wrote: »

The government could give large sites to developers free with one condition, 20 per cent of units must be avaidable for social housing.
I presume buying a site in dublin or other citys is a large part of the cost of a house .

or... just allow houses to go to the free market and encourage people to buy or rent houses themselves...

THe government competing with home buyers can't work. They will just pay whatever is needed for the houses they want and drive up the cost for the average buyer...

The socialist housing policy isn't working.

JJJackal

Should social housing be built on very expensive sites to begin with? Or perhaps there are less expensive areas in Ireland where they could be built. Potentially facilitating rural expansion in some areas, smaller schools staying open, local shops...

Interested Observer

Sloppy_Joe wrote: »

Says the figures that building numbers have dropped.

Is this not because of unsold stock out there? If so, a price increase doesn't seem like the best way of shifting it.

Wanderer78

Bluefoam wrote:

The socialist housing policy isn't working.

What socialist housing policy? We live in a typical, so called free market society!

OwlsZat

JJJackal wrote: »

Should social housing be built on very expensive sites to begin with? Or perhaps there are less expensive areas in Ireland where they could be built. Potentially facilitating rural expansion in some areas, smaller schools staying open, local shops...

Wow slow down with your progressive lefty socialist thoughts. Your common sense has no place here.

Sloppy_Joe

Interested Observer wrote: »

Is this not because of unsold stock out there? If so, a price increase doesn't seem like the best way of shifting it.

What unsold stock?

Why would there be unsold stock when everyone is doing as best they can to buy.

JJJackal

Sloppy_Joe wrote: »

What unsold stock?

Why would there be unsold stock when everyone is doing as best they can to buy.

You need to read more about the topic - a lot of your opinions do not reflect the actual situation

SozBbz

JJJackal wrote: »

Should social housing be built on very expensive sites to begin with? Or perhaps there are less expensive areas in Ireland where they could be built. Potentially facilitating rural expansion in some areas, smaller schools staying open, local shops...

Local authorities up and down the country have tonnes of appropriate land already in their ownership. That includes Dublin.

They are just inable to build for whatevre reason. Seems all the competency is gone and no one is doing anything to change that.

We need to copy the model of housing associations or similar from the UK or other countries that still build social housing.

ZX7R

SozBbz wrote: »

Local authorities up and down the country have tonnes of appropriate land already in their ownership. That includes Dublin.

They are just inable to build for whatevre reason. Seems all the competency is gone and no one is doing anything to change that.

We need to copy the model of housing associations or similar from the UK or other countries that still build social housing.

Biggest reason county councils are not building at the moment,is because many tenders were given to northern and British building companies cheaper labour,all these tenders have been withdrawn due to Brit exit ,
All have been put to tender again , that will be at least another year delay.
The same reason so much council housing is sitting idle renevations that were to be carried out haven't.

ZX7R

Sloppy_Joe wrote: »

Builders are literally walking away from jobs because they can't make profit on it...

The cost of building a house isn't a scale related to the cost of purchasing a house.

Bull ,the only reason a builder would walk away from a job is because they would have another job lined up worth more even more

Interested Observer

Sloppy_Joe wrote: »

What unsold stock?

Why would there be unsold stock when everyone is doing as best they can to buy.

There is plenty of information out there, for example.

in the four quarters to the first three months of this year, there were 2,500 more units built than sold nationwide. Most of this occurred in Dublin, where new supply was 6,905 and purchases were 5,093.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/despite-shortage-houses-being-left-unsold-1.3928592

Why? I'm not exactly sure, the market is slowing, people feel property is too expensive, but there IS unsold stock. It's simple a fact.

ZX7R

OwlsZat wrote: »

The chairman of the Irish Home Builders Association was on the radio spelling out that sales are slowing across the country and there is a volume of available stock in most new developments. He calls out that prudent lending restrictions are making the properties too expensive for new buyers.

The inputs are land, materials and wages. Leaving wages alone the Government is the biggest land hoarder in the country and it can release significant amounts of land to build on at anytime. Material costs are also partially under Government control. David McW has called out that there is a duopoly in the sales of building materials here. He uses concrete as an example cited as twice as expensive as the UK. Obviously, Government should setup a task-force to review/investigate/correct this. Further to this, given the housing crisis it could also choose to temporarily reduce the VAT paid on building materials. Much like was done in the tourism sector.

When you consider the list of available options the housing minister has, it's not surprising his performance almost collapsed the Government. Don't think they will be so lucky next time around.

I would love to see there stats on the volume of unsold stock,the greater Kildare area most sites especially computer blelt have planning in for second third developments,these developments are not been sought if things are not selling.
A good example is planning in for 800 houses in maynooth

ZX7R

Interested Observer wrote: »

There is plenty of information out there, for example.



https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/despite-shortage-houses-being-left-unsold-1.3928592

Why? I'm not exactly sure, the market is slowing, people feel property is too expensive, but there IS unsold stock. It's simple a fact.

Unsold stock is mainly a Dublin problem,as with most things it does not really represent the county as a hole .
That is down to price and price only

SozBbz

ZX7R wrote: »

Unsold stock is mainly a Dublin problem,as with most things it does not really represent the county as a hole .
That is down to price and price only

You said it.

snotboogie

ZX7R wrote: »

I would love to see there stats on the volume of unsold stock,the greater Kildare area most sites especially computer blelt have planning in for second third developments,these developments are not been sought if things are not selling.
A good example is planning in for 800 houses in maynooth

Most of the SHD planning applications are not being built. Sites covering 66% of the homes on the scheme have seen no construction. Because of the 100 home minimum, these applications are exclusive to high demand areas; Dublin, the commuter counties, Cork and a handful in Galway.

Cuddlesworth

Mic 1972 wrote: »

There was a 2% drop in asking price in Dublin which means nothing to the potential profit of building new homes. If builders were able to make a profit 2-3 years ago when prices were lower, sure they are making a profit now.
From the Irish Time below, builders are not at all walking away, they are finding it difficult to get funding for additional building until those unsold inventories are reduced, Mr O’Leary said

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/housing-policy-under-fresh-scrutiny-as-home-building-stalls-in-dublin-1.4075676

A 2% drop means everything because of the risk of it turning into a greater number. If an investor wants to create a couple of hundred houses, it plowing money into something that will be sold 2-3 years down the line at best. It could mean profit or it could mean significant loss(see 2008 for reference). 2% can easily turn into a greater number, demand or no demand. Consumer confidence can make or break this market.

If we see a stall, with stagnant or inflation led pricing then we are looking good. But if that 2% turns into 5% which leads to another market crash, your going to see builders and investors bailing out as quickly as they can.

ZX7R

snotboogie wrote: »

Most of the SHD planning applications are not being built. Sites covering 66% of the homes on the scheme have seen no construction. Because of the 100 home minimum, these applications are exclusive to high demand areas; Dublin, the commuter counties, Cork and a handful in Galway.

Where did you get the figure of 66% of planning not been started yet.
Does this % include those sights that have ground prep started but no actual houses under construction yet

Mic 1972

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

A 2% drop means everything because of the risk of it turning into a greater number. If an investor wants to create a couple of hundred houses, it plowing money into something that will be sold 2-3 years down the line at best. It could mean profit or it could mean significant loss(see 2008 for reference). 2% can easily turn into a greater number, demand or no demand. Consumer confidence can make or break this market.

If we see a stall, with stagnant or inflation led pricing then we are looking good. But if that 2% turns into 5% which leads to another market crash, your going to see builders and investors bailing out as quickly as they can.

House prices are at their peak, builders aren't going anywhere just because asking prices are adjusting to real sale prices. If prices dropped to 2015-16 levels, which is about 20% less than today, builders would still make a profit
They aren't going to stop building. As stated in the article, they are having problems getting funding at the pace they were before because money comes from selling the current stock and things have slowed down. The 2% drop in asking price is meant to speed up sales, if you look at the latest PPR sales for Oct and Sep, there is no real sale price decline

Cuddlesworth

Mic 1972 wrote: »

House prices are at their peak, builders aren't going anywhere just because asking prices are adjusting to real sale prices. If prices dropped to 2015-16 levels, which is about 20% less than today, builders would still make a profit
They aren't going to stop building. As stated in the article, they are having problems getting funding at the pace they were before because money comes from selling the current stock and things have slowed down. The 2% drop in asking price is meant to speed up sales, if you look at the latest PPR sales for Oct and Sep, there is no real sale price decline

while prices in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, typically seen as a bellwether for the rest of the country, saw a decline of 6.3 per cent.

Might just be a blip but it can easily snowball into something larger.

SozBbz

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

while prices in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, typically seen as a bellwether for the rest of the country, saw a decline of 6.3 per cent.

Might just be a blip but it can easily snowball into something larger.

Meh, I don't think so.

Also, I'd argue that DLR is NOT a belweather, its the ultimate outlier. Its the most affluent LA region in the country. Its where things happen first, not an indicator of whats happening nationally. Sure, the national trend tends to follow, but often many years later. Just because something is happening in DLR now, doesnt mean its a microcasm of the national picture. If anything, DLR is probably buffered from price falls as there was always be some demand to live in the area.

Anyhow, while I'm not someone who denies that prices have peaked or indeed care much if they fall, the fundamentals underpinning the economy have not shifted.

Strong employment
Strong population growth
And provided you build them in the right places, people are still big on the idea of home ownership

Finally I really think affordability is the major factor. Yes there are some new builds that have been slow to shift, but IMO that was bound to happen as the prices of said new builds go beyond the help to buy threshold. Wages growth has also been slower than houseprice inflation in the past few years, so this was bound to catch up on itself at somepoint.

ZX7R

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

while prices in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, typically seen as a bellwether for the rest of the country, saw a decline of 6.3 per cent.

Might just be a blip but it can easily snowball into something larger.

So according to the article layman's terms
Dublin has Dropped slightly , nationally it's increased excluding Dublin.
Fun laoghaire /ratdown down 6% but it's never the cheapest to buy either ways.
Plus it will be interesting to see what happens the end of December seen as there Data is only up till July or do we have to wait till July next year for the next update.
6 months of data July till present I'd saw there has been a further increase nationally