Inside Dublin’s Housing Crisis

AndrewJRenko

The Student wrote: »

Bed spaces on the rental market decrease. So supply is reduced and demand has increased for a smaller number of bed spaces. Great logic.

Quite a few assumptions tied into your logic here. If a family moves into the house, then demand for space also decreases, as that family are no longer looking for rental space. If they move in and rent out a room or two via rent-a-room, then capacity on the market increases.



If a fresh landlord buys the property and rents it out, then capacity on the market stays the same.


So what's the problem?

Old diesel

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Quite a few assumptions tied into your logic here. If a family moves into the house, then demand for space also decreases, as that family are no longer looking for rental space. If they move in and rent out a room or two via rent-a-room, then capacity on the market increases.



If a fresh landlord buys the property and rents it out, then capacity on the market stays the same.


So what's the problem?

1) it's harder for people to get mortgages

2) so many will stay in rentals for longer.

3) more properties are leaving the rental market rather then entering it.

4) a 3 bed simi D might be rented to a family or 3 people each rented a room - when said property was rented out. However it could be sold to someone who will live alone in it.

What’s the difference between a bedsit and a studio apartment? I was reading this and thought that they were illegal in Ireland. https://www.dailyedge.ie/grimmest-properties-on-the-dublin-rental-market-january-2019-4420005-Jan2019/

Eric Cartman

Idbatterim wrote: »

hard right?! Are you talking about FG and the world class welfare rates, marginal tax rates from E35,000 taken from the working poor as if you were the wolf of wall street, virtually free housing, free gp visits for all the wasters?

FG attitude to housing and seeing it as a cash cow for themselves and their mates and many of their voters is disgusting. to call FG even centre is laughable in my opinion, centre left...

+1 Ireland has no right, there is no party that is anything even vaugely resembling the right here.

stateofflux

Deleted User wrote: »

What’s the difference between a bedsit and a studio apartment? I was reading this and thought that they were illegal in Ireland. https://www.dailyedge.ie/grimmest-properties-on-the-dublin-rental-market-january-2019-4420005-Jan2019/

i think (but i might be wrong) the difference is in self containment.

ie toilet / bathroom & cooking facilities are within the one living space. & not shared.

AndrewJRenko

Old diesel wrote: »

4) a 3 bed simi D might be rented to a family or 3 people each rented a room - when said property was rented out. However it could be sold to someone who will live alone in it.

Or it could be sold to a family of 6, with two people going into each room.


Who knows?

Eric Cartman

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Or it could be sold to a family of 6, with two people going into each room.


Who knows?

I know a load of couples currently childless living in 3 bed semi-s where they only use one room.

I have personally gone looking to rent 5 bed properties with 4 other professionals and we have been beaten out by childless couples or groups of 3 people or a family with 2 kids every time.

There is a massive disparity between the amount of bedrooms rented out in Ireland and the number of people occupying them.

In dublin you have the brazilians putting 6-9 people into 1 bed apartments which swings the other way completely though.

LotharIngum

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Or it could be sold to a family of 6, with two people going into each room.


Who knows?

I think we all know which is the more likely though.

I think that if a rented house goes on sale now it will only be bought by owner occupiers and definitely not investors these days.

And if it is a small family, its also unlikely that a family would be doing rent a room for any spare rooms.

LotharIngum

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I know a load of couples currently childless living in 3 bed semi-s where they only use one room.

I have personally gone looking to rent 5 bed properties with 4 other professionals and we have been beaten out by childless couples or groups of 3 people or a family with 2 kids every time.

There is a massive disparity between the amount of bedrooms rented out in Ireland and the number of people occupying them.

In dublin you have the brazilians putting 6-9 people into 1 bed apartments which swings the other way completely though.

Hands up here. Two children, living in a 5 bed house.
We did live in a 1 bed apartment for years though.

ToBeFrank123

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

So what happens if they end up selling? The property doesn't disappear off the face of the earth. Someone else buys it, and either lives in it or rents it out, or a bit of both.

50-50 chance of it staying as a rental property I would say. The problem with the housing crisis is most people can't afford to buy a house and need to rent. So if the rental stock declines it pushes up rents elsewhere. We need a large supply of rental properties.

BBFAN

Deleted User wrote: »

What’s the difference between a bedsit and a studio apartment? I was reading this and thought that they were illegal in Ireland. https://www.dailyedge.ie/grimmest-properties-on-the-dublin-rental-market-january-2019-4420005-Jan2019/

Bathrooms were shared in bedsits. Studios have their own bathrooms.

MSVforever

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

This mindset about wanting to live in a cool city centre location is exactly why we have a Dublin housing crisis.

And Silicon Valley is outside of nearby cities. Its not a city centre location. Most American IT workers live in suburbs and work in the Suburbs where the IT companies are based.

For all their faults Americans at least know how to plan cities. Unlike our planners or rather non existant planners. Making an Irish Silicon Valley out of Dublin 2 was always going to end in disaster. I think even the IT hipsters who work there get that now. They are working to live and thats about it.

Rents in San Francisco are insane in comparison to Dublin. Never mind Silicon Valley. The whole Bay area is super expensive.

ToBeFrank123

MSVforever wrote: »

Rents in San Francisco are insane in comparison to Dublin. Never mind Silicon Valley. The whole Bay area is super expensive.

Yes, no issue with that. Many of the causes are similar to Dublin. Rapid increase in jobs, not matched by an increase in housing supply.

Silicon Valley has a severe housing shortage, caused by the market imbalance between jobs created and housing units built: from 2010 to 2015, many more jobs have been created than housing units built. (400,000 jobs, 60,000 housing units)[56] This shortage has driven home prices extremely high, far out of the range of production workers.[57] As of 2016 a two-bedroom apartment rented for about $2,500 while the median home price was about $1 million.[56] The Financial Post called Silicon Valley the most expensive U.S. housing region.[58] Homelessness is a problem with housing beyond the reach of middle-income residents; there is little shelter space other than in San Jose which, as of 2015, was making an effort to develop shelters by renovating old hotels.[59]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicon_Valley

GGTrek

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Yes, no issue with that. Many of the causes are similar to Dublin. Rapid increase in jobs, not matched by an increase in housing supply.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicon_Valley

Let's not forget that San Francisco is run by nimby champagne socialists and they implemented rent control a long time ago with wonderful effects studied by a recent Stanford University research paper: https://web.stanford.edu/~diamondr/DMQ.pdf


I shall just put their abstract here, since I am really tired of the socialists idiot suggestions in this thread:
"Using a 1994 law change, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in the assignment of rent control in San Francisco to study its impacts on tenants and landlords. Leveraging new data tracking individuals’ migration, we find rent control limits renters’ mobility by 20% and lowers displacement from San Francisco. Landlords treated by rent control reduce rental housing supplies by 15% by selling to owner-occupants and redeveloping buildings. Thus, while rent control prevents displacement of incumbent renters in the short run, the lost rental housing supply likely drove up market rents in the long run, ultimately undermining the goals of the law."


Ireland is just at the beginning of a vicious cycle of massive overregulation (in San Franscisco they have been going on since 1994) of the rental market. Owners occupiers will be allright in the medium term (after all they are the ones who really vote) while renters will probably be screwed.

ToBeFrank123

Sometimes governments actually encourage the very thing they are trying to prevent.

For years landlords have been treated like the enemy. No doubt they are some rogue landlords out there, but why tar all of them the same?

From what I can see, the decent landlord who tries his or her best for the tenant, fixes and replaces everything promptly, keeps the rent low, is in the end screwed by the taxman and eventually thinks its all too much trouble.
When these type landlords are forced out, you are usually left with the gouger landlord who charges through the roof, sticks 10 or 20 immigrants in a property, evicts at short notice so they can get someone else in, doesn't bother with repairs.

We need more of the former and less of the latter.

The market usually corrects itself with a little government intervention.

And lets face it, Dublin will never ever be able to provide the kind of supply needed in the short or medium term. Only demand can be tackled in the short term.

ToBeFrank123

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

.............

For years landlords have been treated like the enemy..............

And now any company investing or building a block of apartments that they'll manage going forward and not sell off is referred to as a vulture fund

ToBeFrank123

Augeo wrote: »

And now any company investing or building a block of apartments that they'll manage going forward and not sell off is referred to as a vulture fund

My understanding is such companies often pay a pittance in tax, sometimes only a couple hundred euro per year. Clever accountants and all that.

The average landlord with one property often pays more tax than them.

It really isn't a level playing field.

ToBeFrank123

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

My understanding is such companies often pay a pittance in tax, sometimes only a couple hundred euro per year. Clever accountants and all that.

The average landlord with one property often pays more tax than them.

It really isn't a level playing field.

No doubt (well I am doubtful that the couple of hundred a year is true in too many cases, they'd pay that in employer's PRSI alone I expect)........... but as the game is no longer attractive for so many of the traditional for want of a better word Irish landlord the new breed have swooped
Someone has to do it.

ToBeFrank123

Its well documented.

https://www.thejournal.ie/vulture-funds-2-3176030-Jan2017/

https://www.thejournal.ie/vulture-funds-loophole-3009381-Oct2016/

Very difficult for the average landlord to compete with that. The profit from many after tax would be minimal. Some are in it as a long term investment but you can understand when some decide its no longer worth the hassle.

However its probably a good thing to encourage some vulture/rental funds to build large apartment blocks as they have the money. Bit unfair though that a 1 or 2 property landlord pays more tax.

overkill602

All Landlords are being vilified by a number of elected left wing TDs and sinn fein they collectively have no answer to where the money will come from for free houses for all, their audience don’t care so it’s a vote catcher but with weak governance its an easy sector to target.
I experienced the “I hate all landlords” from a low life sinn fein supporter recently.
It take a lot longer for a landlord to invest and rent out units than it does to exit and the decent ones leave first and the new landlord will charge more.

This seems to have gone under the radar. http://www.echo.ie/tallaght/article/24-rapid-build-houses-allocated-to-families-before-christmas
Better late than never.

ToBeFrank123

Deleted User wrote: »

This seems to have gone under the radar. http://www.echo.ie/tallaght/article/24-rapid-build-houses-allocated-to-families-before-christmas
Better late than never.

That's great. But you'd wonder why the rest of us mugs work hard and pay our taxes. Seems like you can jump to the top of the queue and have a house provided by doing Sweet FA. Meanwhile the squeezed middle classes who seem to have no representation in this country pay for it. Political parties in this country seem to represent the very rich or the very poor and very few in between, particularly when it comes to housing.

hmmm

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Meanwhile the squeezed middle classes who seem to have no representation in this country pay for it.

The problem is they don't make noise. Politicians get phone calls daily from the feckless demanding to know when they will be handed their free houses. The media are quite left wing, and when politicians appear on the news they know they will be asked about the "disadvantaged".

Varadkar came out recently and said his focus would be increasing the point at which workers have to pay higher rate tax, and he was roundly vilified for it by the usual suspects. Meanwhile there wasn't much mention of support for it, even though it would help the middle class. A proposal to increase social housing to 20% in new developments sails through the Dail, even though it will mean the cost is put on people actually paying for the houses.

I don't know what the answer is unfortunately.

syndrome777

From reddit

How Singapore Fixed Its Housing Problem


Singapore has an area that's about 12% less than county Dublin and now has a population of around 5.6 million, around 1 million more than the Republic and around 1 million less than the entire island of Ireland. Their GDP per capita is just over €15,000 higher than the UK's.

syndrome777

syndrome777 wrote: »

From reddit

How Singapore Fixed Its Housing Problem


Singapore has an area that's about 12% less than county Dublin and now has a population of around 5.6 million, around 1 million more than the Republic and around 1 million less than the entire island of Ireland. Their GDP per capita is just over €15,000 higher than the UK's.

It seems that we could learn a lot from Singapore. This is how they deal with drug dealers. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6608935/Ex-Westminster-public-schoolboy-strapped-naked-frame-caned-24-times.html

The_Conductor

syndrome777 wrote: »

From reddit

How Singapore Fixed Its Housing Problem


Singapore has an area that's about 12% less than county Dublin and now has a population of around 5.6 million, around 1 million more than the Republic and around 1 million less than the entire island of Ireland. Their GDP per capita is just over €15,000 higher than the UK's.

Singapore?
They got a housing agency to build 30,000 public housing units- to rehome a portion of the population who were living in slums- back in the 1950s. No-one wanted to live in them. In 1961-62- a mysterious fire in the slums made over 16,000 families homeless- but luckily only killed 3-4 people and hospitalised another 20. Quite remarkable. The government used the happenchance to declare the slums a special development zone for high density housing- and commenced building immediately. Meanwhile- they had enough vacant social housing units to rehome all those made homeless through the great fire. Within 4 years- they rebuilt the entire slums with high density housing units- which they offered for sale back to the original people they had cleared from the slums- on multigenerational mortgages- which are still being repaid 60 years later..........

Have I missed anything?

Singapore is a remarkable country- but by God, I'd not be holding them up as a model that anyone else should aspire to. The 'accidental' fire that successfully cleared their slums- and the miracle of so few deaths or casualties- alongside an ability to immediately house everyone- as their mad building project had a glut of vacant homes? Lots of very very convenient happenings...........

AndrewJRenko

hmmm wrote: »

The problem is they don't make noise. Politicians get phone calls daily from the feckless demanding to know when they will be handed their free houses. The media are quite left wing, and when politicians appear on the news they know they will be asked about the "disadvantaged".

Should I take it that you haven't read the Irish Independent, Sunday Independent, the Times in Ireland, the Sunday Business Post, the Irish Mail, the Sun or listened to Newstalk or Classic Hits or Red FM for quite a while?

Klonker

AndrewJRenko wrote:

Should I take it that you haven't read the Irish Independent, Sunday Independent, the Times in Ireland, the Sunday Business Post, the Irish Mail, the Sun or listened to Newstalk or Classic Hits or Red FM for quite a while?

Are you actually trying to claim our media is not left wing apart from a tiny proportion?

The fact almost no one in the media discussed the merits of Peter Casey's comments, instead just labelling him and his supporters racist shows how left wing the media here is. That's just one example.

AndrewJRenko

Klonker wrote: »

Are you actually trying to claim our media is not left wing apart from a tiny proportion?

The fact almost no one in the media discussed the merits of Peter Casey's comments, instead just labelling him and his supporters racist shows how left wing the media here is. That's just one example.

Maybe you're right - maybe there was barely any coverage of Casey's remarks (made originally in an interview with the Independent):


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dragon-peter-casey-takes-his-incendiary-style-on-road-after-traveller-comments-pd0b89sqx



https://www.thesun.ie/news/3311098/irish-presidential-election-2018-peter-casey/


https://www.joe.ie/politics/peter-casey-traveller-comments-644643

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBJ1mx5jAhM

Maybe it was a different Peter Casey who got rewarded for his stirring with a regular spot on national radio station Newstalk?


He's nearly as 'silenced' as the Iona Institute lads.

CatFromHue

When did Casey get a regular slot on Newstalk?