Unexpected consequences of Brexit

When Brexit is sorted ( I am an optimist ).

Ireland will be the only English speaking country in Europe with free movement of people will this lead to all the eastern Europeans who want to go to the UK but cant coming to Ireland instead and putting further pressure on the housing market.

There are probably lots of other unexpected or even unknowable consequences.

Be nice if this thread didn't attract a lot of racists.

Donald Trump

mariaalice wrote: »

When Brexit is sorted ( I am an optimist ).

Ireland will be the only English speaking country in Europe with free movement of people will this lead to all the eastern Europeans who want to go to the UK but cant coming to Ireland instead and putting further pressure on the housing market.

There are probably lots of other unexpected or even unknowable consequences.

Be nice if this thread didn't attract a lot of racists.

Your first point about being an English speaking country is not unexpected. Apparently even Dominic Raab was aware of that one. (Malta? Plus the UK will still be in Europe. Just not the European Union)


Eastern Europeans tend to come to work. More coming is a good sign. Maybe they'll build a few houses for us

Donald Trump

Donald Trump wrote: »

Your first point about being an English speaking country is not unexpected (Malta?)


Eastern Europeans tend to come to work. More coming is a good sign. Maybe they'll build a few houses for us

It's not about working or skilled builder it's about where they will reside, will it have any effect on the property market. It was talking to a person who rents out a room in their house they told me about being almost inundated with enquires from eastern Europe and South Africa.

Donald Trump

mariaalice wrote: »

It's not about working or skilled builder it's about where they will reside, will it have any effect on the property market. It was talking to a person who rents out a room in their house they told me about being almost inundated with enquires from eastern Europe and South Africa.

The feckers. Wanting to have somewhere to rent to sleep. Taking good centrally located rooms out of the hands of dole-scrounging wasters who would have gotten them for "free" otherwise




I'm with Patrick Guinness on the Syrians

ancapailldorcha

Donald Trump wrote: »

The feckers. Wanting to have somewhere to rent to sleep. Taking good centrally located rooms out of the hands of dole-scrounging wasters who would have gotten them for "free" otherwise

I'm with Patrick Guinness on the Syrians

This is a forum for serious discussion. Please read the charter before posting again and dial back on the sarcastic quips.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump wrote: »

The feckers. Wanting to have somewhere to rent to sleep. Taking good centrally located rooms out of the hands of dole-scrounging wasters who would have gotten them for "free" otherwise




I'm with Patrick Guinness on the Syrians

Again you are extrapolating from my post something that is not there, it is simply a fact.

Donald Trump

mariaalice wrote: »

Again you are extrapolating from my post something that is not there, it is simply a fact.

mariaalice wrote: »

Again you are extrapolating from my post something that is not there, it is simply a fact.

What is fact from your posts other than anecdotal evidence that a person you know received a lot of inquiries from Easter Europeans and South Africans about renting a room?



A lot of the "problems", in Dublin at least, are from people coming in to work in finance or tech. High paying jobs and people with money to spend pushing up prices, and having a knock on effect on surrounding areas. Those people are coming from all over the world. Ironically, plenty will be driven over from London by Brexit as financial companies relocate and build up operations in Dublin. The problem is not the people coming, it's the lack of housing stock.


If Brexit causes more people to move here, it will not be confined, or maybe even dominated by Easter Europeans so there is no reason to single them out and highlight them alone


As I said, Eastern Europeans come to work. They will come if they have jobs. which is a good thing. The building labourer, coming over to build houses and wanting to rent a room for somewhere to live while here cannot be scapegoated.

I got warned for that, so I had better leave this thread because I don't know how else to respond to the underlying current implied in your post. I didn't consider your opening post to be a "serious" post and so I responded in kind. But apparently it was serious and not satire or a pisstake. It was not my intention to offend. But I will leave the thread now

ArmaniJeanss

mariaalice wrote: »

When Brexit is sorted ( I am an optimist ).

Ireland will be the only English speaking country in Europe with free movement of people will this lead to all the eastern Europeans who want to go to the UK but cant coming to Ireland instead and putting further pressure on the housing market.

I don't follow your logic, which seems to be that East Europeans denied access to the UK will instead come to Ireland because we are English speaking?
But seeing as English isn't their first language and probably not even their second language (probably German or Russian depending on which EU country they are from) so presumably the attraction of the UK was something other than the language.
Which is not to say they won't be attracted here, I just don't see the language as a factor.

mariaalice

mariaalice wrote: »

When Brexit is sorted ( I am an optimist ).

Ireland will be the only English speaking country in Europe with free movement of people will this lead to all the eastern Europeans who want to go to the UK but cant coming to Ireland instead and putting further pressure on the housing market.

There are probably lots of other unexpected or even unknowable consequences.

Be nice if this thread didn't attract a lot of racists.

I think you strike an alarmist tone, what about the influx of Poles and other eastern Europeans in the mid-2000s? Can't picture another significant wave like this materialising again.

Alright it was badley put, and yes it was an anecdote. Could Brexit have consequence for the irish property market.

Alright it was badley put, and yes it was an anecdote. Could Brexit have consequence for the irish property market.

theguzman

What might be the situation re: Duty Free? Could a lad take a €9.99 flight from Dublin to Liverpool and bring back 200 cigs and a bottle of Whiskey. Could there be Duty Free for crossing the NI border or even a booze cruise across the Irish Sea with the carferry companies.

An Ciarraioch

To be honest, I didn't expect the impact on Northern Ireland to be so rancorous - before the referendum, Peter Robinson appeared to be fairly moderate in his tone, as was Martin McGuinness, but as the Claire Byrne polls showed on Monday, nationalist confidence in the institutions has completely collapsed due to Brexit, and the communities seem more polarised than at any point in the last 20 years.

fxotoole

mariaalice wrote: »

It's not about working or skilled builder it's about where they will reside, will it have any effect on the property market. It was talking to a person who rents out a room in their house they told me about being almost inundated with enquires from eastern Europe and South Africa.

Maybe all these highly skilled Eastern European builders could build their own houses?

An Ciarraioch

theguzman wrote: »

What might be the situation re: Duty Free? Could a lad take a €9.99 flight from Dublin to Liverpool and bring back 200 cigs and a bottle of Whiskey. Could there be Duty Free for crossing the NI border or even a booze cruise across the Irish Sea with the carferry companies.

If the WA is approved, they'll still be in a CU for goods.

theguzman

Eastern Europeans or Irish or Brazilians etc. they are all getting screwed as the property market and price of housing to rent and buy is inflated by the corrupt elite.

Seth Brundle

theguzman wrote: »

Eastern Europeans or Irish or Brazilians etc. they are all getting screwed as the property market and price of housing to rent and buy is inflated by the corrupt elite.

Who are the corrupt elite and how are they inflating the market?

theguzman

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Who are the corrupt elite and how are they inflating the market?

Foreign companies buying up housing stock, TD's owning dozens of houses and Auctioneers and Solicitors. I think that until the housing crisis is solved there should be a ban on foreigners buying property across the country as New Zealand has recently implemented and Sydney is implementing also. There should be a complete ban on foreign ownership of farmland.

James Brown

theguzman wrote: »

Foreign companies buying up housing stock, TD's owning dozens of houses and Auctioneers and Solicitors. I think that until the housing crisis is solved there should be a ban on foreigners buying property across the country as New Zealand has recently implemented and Sydney is implementing also. There should be a complete ban on foreign ownership of farmland.

Enabled by FG/FF government with low tax rates and being their customer for rentals and buying.


Well part of the no houses propaganda is not enough builders, so we should welcome any from anywhere. Also some years ago Irish Ferries docked, (still dock?) in England to avail of cheaper eastern European cleaning staff, (major deal at the time) so it's nothing new. Except now they'll need pay them a salary on par with Ireland.
I think business will prosper here and a United Ireland will be closer.

demfad

mariaalice wrote: »

When Brexit is sorted ( I am an optimist ).

Ireland will be the only English speaking country in Europe with free movement of people will this lead to all the eastern Europeans who want to go to the UK but cant coming to Ireland instead and putting further pressure on the housing market.

There are probably lots of other unexpected or even unknowable consequences.

Be nice if this thread didn't attract a lot of racists.

The amount of Eastern people moving to the UK for work has been dropping significantly since the early days of enlargement. Can you supply any substantiation as to why you think many numbers will now come here?
Otherwise we are discussing something that may or may not be real.

An Ciarraioch

demfad wrote: »

mariaalice wrote: »

When Brexit is sorted ( I am an optimist ).

Ireland will be the only English speaking country in Europe with free movement of people will this lead to all the eastern Europeans who want to go to the UK but cant coming to Ireland instead and putting further pressure on the housing market.

There are probably lots of other unexpected or even unknowable consequences.

Be nice if this thread didn't attract a lot of racists.

The amount of Eastern people moving to the UK for work has been dropping significantly since the early days of enlargement. Can you supply any substantiation as to why you think many numbers will now come here?
Otherwise we are discussing something that may or may not be real.

Apparently, unemployment in Poland is now only 3%, according to recent figures:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/268830/unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/#0

Seth Brundle

theguzman wrote: »

Foreign companies buying up housing stock, TD's owning dozens of houses and Auctioneers and Solicitors. I think that until the housing crisis is solved there should be a ban on foreigners buying property across the country as New Zealand has recently implemented and Sydney is implementing also. There should be a complete ban on foreign ownership of farmland.

How is "Foreign companies buying up housing stock, TD's owning dozens of houses and Auctioneers and Solicitors." driving up prices?
Surely the ownership of a property is irrelevant if it still accommodates x number of people?
Would it not be better to stop interfereing with the market and simply increase supply in a sustainable manner?

Anyhow, what makes them a corrupt elite?

murphaph

The huge waves of Poles were because only 3 EU countries allowed them access to the labour market after Poland's accession. Nowadays notwithstanding the fact that the Polish economy is performing well Poles can go to any country in the EU to live and work. I have several Polish colleagues in my Berlin office.

CelticRambler

British recruiters of Eastern Europeans have been complaining for the last few years that they can't get them to come to Britain because - apart from Brexit-related xenophobia - their potential workforce can get better-paid work elsewhere in continental Europe (Germany and Poland feature regularly as good payers). Why would they decide to come to Ireland instead of the UK unless we can offer them better opportunities than Poland?

James Brown

Seth Brundle wrote: »

How is "Foreign companies buying up housing stock, TD's owning dozens of houses and Auctioneers and Solicitors." driving up prices?
Surely the ownership of a property is irrelevant if it still accommodates x number of people?
Would it not be better to stop interfereing with the market and simply increase supply in a sustainable manner?

Anyhow, what makes them a corrupt elite?

The going rate for rent or purchase is no longer set by the customer but the corporation/consortium.
If wealthy people hold on to or purchase property for investment, this is very relevant and keeps the market heated.
Due to lack of social and affordable housing the state and LA's are renting and buying off of these property companies, thus maintaining their interest in our market and keeping prices from dropping to a level most can comfortably afford.
The corruption is more willful poor governing IMO. It comes when the state sets low taxes for vulture funds making buying up homes attractive and the LA's/state buying and renting back off them, the tax payer footing the bill. It's not corruption just piss poor governing. The corruption is debatable as to how much inappropriate behaviour may be going on and why they continue to use the housing crisis in such a manner, that being to drive the profits of private concerns.

Kermit.de.frog

Most unexpected consequence for me is seeing institutions like the Irish Times, for example, which historically had a pro British slant now resembling almost a daily version of the old "Republican War News" from the 70s or something.

Seth Brundle

Matt Barrett wrote: »

The going rate for rent or purchase is no longer set by the customer but the corporation/consortium.
If wealthy people hold on to or purchase property for investment, this is very relevant and keeps the market heated.

I would say that the going rate is set by the market (excluding government interference).
If you want to include government interference then you would have to look at the numbers of small landlords (which were heavily dependent on) who got fed up with the stupid legislation and have moved to the likes of AirBnB.
Is there any evidence that "wealthy" people owning investment property has heated the market?

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Due to lack of social and affordable housing the state and LA's are renting and buying off of these property companies, thus maintaining their interest in our market and keeping prices from dropping to a level most can comfortably afford.

My understanding is that they're both building (which takes time) and buying whatever they can.
In terms of buying from "these property companies" do you mean estate agents or REITs? If the latter, how many properties have we purchased from them and what alternative source could we have gotten that number from?
What is the percentage of state purchased properties were REIT and what were from private landlords?

Matt Barrett wrote: »

The corruption is more willful poor governing IMO. It comes when the state sets low taxes for vulture funds making buying up homes attractive and the LA's/state buying and renting back off them, the tax payer footing the bill. It's not corruption just piss poor governing. The corruption is debatable as to how much inappropriate behaviour may be going on and why they continue to use the housing crisis in such a manner, that being to drive the profits of private concerns.

So no corruption then, just some potential tinfoil hat thinking (at a extreme stretch)?


Either way, none of this has anything to do with Brexit as was suggested by the OP

Rhineshark

Somewhat unexpected consequence - the wave of British immigration to Ireland, both in terms of passports (which may not prove moving over) but also citizenships and buying up property, particularly in more rural areas or older "strongholds" like west Cork.

10000maniacs

Donald Trump wrote: »

What is fact from your posts other than anecdotal evidence that a person you know received a lot of inquiries from Easter Europeans and South Africans about renting a room?



A lot of the "problems", in Dublin at least, are from people coming in to work in finance or tech. High paying jobs and people with money to spend pushing up prices, and having a knock on effect on surrounding areas. Those people are coming from all over the world. Ironically, plenty will be driven over from London by Brexit as financial companies relocate and build up operations in Dublin. The problem is not the people coming, it's the lack of housing stock.


If Brexit causes more people to move here, it will not be confined, or maybe even dominated by Easter Europeans so there is no reason to single them out and highlight them alone


As I said, Eastern Europeans come to work. They will come if they have jobs. which is a good thing. The building labourer, coming over to build houses and wanting to rent a room for somewhere to live while here cannot be scapegoated.

I got warned for that, so I had better leave this thread because I don't know how else to respond to the underlying current implied in your post. I didn't consider your opening post to be a "serious" post and so I responded in kind. But apparently it was serious and not satire or a pisstake. It was not my intention to offend. But I will leave the thread now

If it pushes house prices up even further in the capital, they will factor that into their decision to come or not.
€2000 pm for a half decent two bedroom in Dublin is the current norm. that's a €24,000 cut out of your net wage. I would factor that into a decision to move here.

Peregrinus

CelticRambler wrote: »

British recruiters of Eastern Europeans have been complaining for the last few years that they can't get them to come to Britain because - apart from Brexit-related xenophobia - their potential workforce can get better-paid work elsewhere in continental Europe (Germany and Poland feature regularly as good payers). Why would they decide to come to Ireland instead of the UK unless we can offer them better opportunities than Poland?

". . . unless we can offer them better opportunities than Germany, Austria, Italy, France, etc", I think you mean.

mrbrianj

Anecdotal chats with Eastern European construction workers in the UK last year/ 18 months - many were leaving the London/SE region and heading to mainland Europe. Explaining that the rents were so high, and that jobs elsewhere in Europe while paying less but required less rent which left them better off.

I dont think anybody will come to Ireland for an average salary just to be fleeced for rent. High skilled jobs yes - but that was ever the way

Franz Von Peppercorn

Donald Trump wrote: »

The feckers. Wanting to have somewhere to rent to sleep. Taking good centrally located rooms out of the hands of dole-scrounging wasters who would have gotten them for "free" otherwise




I'm with Patrick Guinness on the Syrians

These are stupid strawman sneers, not reasonable arguments.

It could well be a problem for Irish infrastructure and housing if a lot of Eastern European (or Southern European) immigrants who would have gone to the U.K. come to Ireland.

Peregrinus

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

It could well be a problem for Irish infrastructure and housing if a lot of Eastern European (or Southern European) immigrants who would have gone to the U.K. come to Ireland.

But there's no reason to expect this. If they can go to anywhere in Europe; why would they all pick Ireland? Presumably, the ones who want to come to Ireland are already here. The ones who want to come to the UK will now have to go to their second-choice country, but there is no reason to suppose that this will be Ireland.

James Brown

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I would say that the going rate is set by the market (excluding government interference).
If you want to include government interference then you would have to look at the numbers of small landlords (which were heavily dependent on) who got fed up with the stupid legislation and have moved to the likes of AirBnB.
Is there any evidence that "wealthy" people owning investment property has heated the market?

It's a business, nothing wrong with that, but the state/LA's shouldn't be assisting private business to the detriment of the public during a crisis IMO. If landlords aren't making enough, how does it go, stop whinging, get a better job etc. etc.
By wealthy I mean people/entities who can afford to speculate in the property market for profit.

Seth Brundle wrote: »

My understanding is that they're both building (which takes time) and buying whatever they can.
In terms of buying from "these property companies" do you mean estate agents or REITs? If the latter, how many properties have we purchased from them and what alternative source could we have gotten that number from?
What is the percentage of state purchased properties were REIT and what were from private landlords?

'Building takes time'. I've not heard that one since the early days of the Kenny government.
That's not my understanding. They are using the private market. Except now it's the only option and they can sell business as usual as time sensitive reliance. Surely they noticed the worsening crisis year on year? I don't buy that they woke up recently and decided to rely on the private market as a stop gap. We've been here before as I recall a few years back. Recycling the excuse.

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So no corruption then, just some potential tinfoil hat thinking (at a extreme stretch)?

There's conscious efforts to carry out bad policy. That's not corruption. If you follow the quality of FF/FG politicians, not so much of a stretch. If there is any it may come out or it may not.

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Either way, none of this has anything to do with Brexit as was suggested by the OP

Well it's a good lesson, even in a crisis the right people can make money while the public go mad/party. The same will be so regardless of how Brexit turns out.

demfad

https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2018/11/16/why-britain-needs-its-own-mueller/

After reading this I have little doubt that Aaron Banks is a full Russian asset as is Farage. Unknown to him Banks married a Russian agent and was compromised.

Britain and America, Brexit and Trump, are inextricably entwined. By Nigel Farage. By Cambridge Analytica. By Steve Bannon. By the Russian ambassador to London, Alexander Yakovenko, who has been identified by Special Counsel Robert Mueller as a conduit between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin. The same questions that dog the US election dog ours, too.

Banks met the Russian Ambassador several times including he day of the Leave.EU launch with Cambridge Analytica andthe day of Bannon being appointed campaign manager for Trump.
Banks, Bannon and Cambridge Analytica were in discussions as early as 2015.
The day of the LeaveEU launch Banks was offered deals in Gold mines. A few days after the Brexit result one of these offerred companies was privatised just like Rosneft in the Steele dossier. Gold mines are notorious for money laundering. Was Banks laundering money for Russians? Was this where the £8 million came from.
Read yourselves for Farage. He has more connections still.

The article states the Government is deliberately looking the other way. Its worse than that: Just before the referendum Theresa May pulled an investigation into Aaron Banks. She was asked in the Commons the day of the EU deal. She did not deny.

The UK government must know. What is going on?

Donald Trump

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

These are stupid strawman sneers, not reasonable arguments.

It could well be a problem for Irish infrastructure and housing if a lot of Eastern European (or Southern European) immigrants who would have gone to the U.K. come to Ireland.

1) Why would an Eastern (or Southern) European person coming cause more housing difficulties/problems than an Western (or Northern) European one? Or even American/Australian/Asian that might be shipped across from London to set up or expand an office in Dublin post-Brexit?



2) Given that it is generally expected that all EU citizens living in the UK on withdrawal date will be allowed to leave, surely you'll have an accelerated migration to there to get in before the door closes? Why then have the invading caravan of EU immigrants slowed since to vote over there