New car sales collapse 20% in UK

Atlantic Dawn

Interesting times, between emissions, Brexit and general economic worries it's bound to put plenty of cheap unwanted motors our way...

New car sales in the UK plunged in September, figures show, while a major carmaker has warned of the effects of a no-deal Brexit.


The number of total vehicles registered was down 20.5% on the same period in 2017 at 338,834, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said.


Carmakers had struggled with "a raft of upheavals" including adjusting to stricter emissions standards, it added.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45743771

italodisco

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Interesting times, between emissions, Brexit and general economic worries it's bound to put plenty of cheap unwanted motors our way...





https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45743771

Happy days, might make that range rover on my wish list more of a reality!!!

screamer

Unwanted yes... Cheap hell no, vrt will see to that.

Twenty Grand

That's a hell of a hit!

In the same week car manufacturers are talking of shutting plants and moving production.

colm_mcm

Less new cars sold usually means prices of used cars firm up.

homingbird

screamer wrote: »

Unwanted yes... Cheap hell no, vrt will see to that.

All you need is an address in the uk for 6 months then bring it in as your car.

wexie

homingbird wrote: »

All you need is an address in the uk for 6 months then bring it in as your car.

I don't know about that, I seem to recall a thread on here a while ago where someone needed utility bills, bank statements and the whole lot to prove they had actually lived there during that time.

colm_mcm

wexie wrote: »

I don't know about that, I seem to recall a thread on here a while ago where someone needed utility bills, bank statements and the whole lot to prove they had actually lived there during that time.

You are correct. If it was that easy we’d all be doing it.

Marcusm

homingbird wrote: »

All you need is an address in the uk for 6 months then bring it in as your car.

Plus varied proofs of living and working there plus evidence of taking up employment and acquiring property here. I submitted approx 100 pages of documents.

Leonard Hofstadter

Having done it at the start of the year they want just about everything - bank statements, a utility bill, ferry tickets, proof that you own the car for at least six months etc. Then you've the whole hassle of getting it insure while it's on UK plates.

Sales were up 23% in August compared to the same period last year. The main reason for the decline is because of the WLTP, it's only just come in and September is when the '68' plate is introduced in the UK so not all manufacturers have everything ready yet, several makes have trimmed down their lineup, BMW for example no longer sells petrol 7 series (bar the hybrid) anywhere in the EU.

A more interesting statistic is that diesels now represent less than 30% of UK sales, only last year they were on something like 45% or thereabouts so the decline is very stark, it's definitely falling out of fashion as a fuel over there now.

Akrasia

PCP finance accounts for the majority of new car sales. People and car dealerships aren't prepared to sign up to a long term commitment when the future is so uncertain.

Car dealers underwrite some of the cost of PCP finance by guaranteeing the resale value of a used car. Their finance companies know that a no deal Brexit would lead to a mass default on car loans and a collapse in used car values.

PCPs have already milked the Sub prime market but that only works when repossessed cars are holding their value. When Sterling has lost 20% of its value in the last 2 years and the best possible result from Brexit is only a small recession while the worst case of a generation defining depression is becoming the likely outcome.. Would you lend or borrow money to fund a new car?

screamer

Akrasia wrote: »

PCP finance accounts for the majority of new car sales. People and car dealerships aren't prepared to sign up to a long term commitment when the future is so uncertain.

Car dealers underwrite some of the cost of PCP finance by guaranteeing the resale value of a used car. Their finance companies know that a no deal Brexit would lead to a mass default on car loans and a collapse in used car values.

PCPs have already milked the Sub prime market but that only works when repossessed cars are holding their value. When Sterling has lost 20% of its value in the last 2 years and the best possible result from Brexit is only a small recession while the worst case of a generation defining depression is becoming the likely outcome.. Would you lend or borrow money to fund a new car?

No but over the water in Ireland the good times are rolling the boom is back and begrudging Betty wants her 191 to best jealous Jane's 182...... They'll find ejits here to buy them, full price and all

Akrasia

screamer wrote: »

No but over the water in Ireland the good times are rolling the boom is back and begrudging Betty wants her 191 to best jealous Jane's 182...... They'll find ejits here to buy them, full price and all

Not when there is a WTO mandated import duty on top of the VRT.

Cee-Jay-Cee

Akrasia wrote: »

Not when there is a WTO mandated import duty on top of the VRT.

But surely that will only be on cars registered after the Brexit date. Cars registered/sold in the Uk prior to that date would have had EU vat already paid so should be exempt.

coylemj

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

But surely that will only be on cars registered after the Brexit date. Cars registered/sold in the Uk prior to that date would have had EU vat already paid so should be exempt.

I'm not sure if the original sale date will count for much.

Post Brexit, the word is that 23% VAT will apply to UK imports.

Leonard Hofstadter

Is VAT applied when you import something from outside the EU? If it is not, I don't see why it would be any different for UK imports. If there is no deal then there is a 10% tariff on cars under WTO rules so they would have to apply that alright.

Akrasia

coylemj wrote: »

I'm not sure if the original sale date will count for much.

Post Brexit, the word is that 23% VAT will apply to UK imports.

Vat is not the same as import duty

hi5

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

But surely that will only be on cars registered after the Brexit date. Cars registered/sold in the Uk prior to that date would have had EU vat already paid so should be exempt.

No, that won't happen, it's the inverse but the same principal as a new country joining the EU, new rules apply from the date you join.
Poland joined the EU in 2004, I can import a 2002 car from Poland VAT free without any EU VAT having ever being paid.

Cee-Jay-Cee

hi5 wrote: »

No, that won't happen, it's the inverse but the same principal as a new country joining the EU, new rules apply from the date you join.
Poland joined the EU in 2004, I can import a 2002 car from Poland VAT free without any EU VAT having ever being paid.

Ok, didn't know that.

I was talking to a person who is importing 10-20 cars a week from the Uk and asking him about post Brexit and he reckons that used car prices in the Uk will drop so severely that it will still be worth importing them for at least another 5 or 6 years but that it'll eventually balance itself out and the import market here will gradually slow and die off.

ednwireland

ive been looking for a hybrid and to be honest im not seeing much difference in prices if anything they would be slightly more from uk.

certainly looks like second hand diesel prices have fallen off a cliff

suspect manufacturers have been caught with the wrong stock as much as anything

ELM327

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

Is VAT applied when you import something from outside the EU? If it is not, I don't see why it would be any different for UK imports. If there is no deal then there is a 10% tariff on cars under WTO rules so they would have to apply that alright.

It is applied, and is applied regardless of taxation in the country of sale before import.


We don't have a precedent for this scenario as no one has been silly enough to leave the EU so who knows what will happen.


The one thing for sure is that it's going to be more expensive to import from the UK as it stands unless a deal is done. Now whether the additional expense is offset by a weaker sterling as they've ruined their economy, who knows.

road_high

colm_mcm wrote: »

Less new cars sold usually means prices of used cars firm up.

Absolutely. This will increase used prices. Our own new car sales have been somewhat sluggish and if they’re scarecer, more expensive (because of Brexit) in the U.K. then prices will rise here.

terrydel

screamer wrote: »

No but over the water in Ireland the good times are rolling the boom is back and begrudging Betty wants her 191 to best jealous Jane's 182...... They'll find ejits here to buy them, full price and all

Thats Irish people to a tee.
Must be the most materialistic, shallow nation around.

terrydel

ednwireland wrote: »

ive been looking for a hybrid and to be honest im not seeing much difference in prices if anything they would be slightly more from uk.

certainly looks like second hand diesel prices have fallen off a cliff

suspect manufacturers have been caught with the wrong stock as much as anything

Please point me to these off a cliff prices?!

road_high

terrydel wrote: »

Thats Irish people to a tee.
Must be the most materialistic, shallow nation around.

How so? By car sales Our proportion of exotic, high end car sales is tiny by comparison to most European nations. I definitely wouldnt call our car fleet particularly flash or shallow. It’s in the main very conservative and modest.
I wish it were otherwise but the tax regime prohibits for most of us

cnocbui

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Interesting times, between emissions, Brexit and general economic worries it's bound to put plenty of cheap unwanted motors our way...

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45743771

Cheap? Have you not heard of VRT?

Lord Nikon

If some of the manufacturers are worried, would they possible relocate their production plants to Ireland?

Harry Palmr

Lord Nikon wrote: »

If some of the manufacturers are worried, would they possible relocate their production plants to Ireland?

Why would you move your production of heavy expensive machinery to a small island with shoddy infrastructure even further away from the main markets?

terrydel

road_high wrote: »

How so? By car sales Our proportion of exotic, high end car sales is tiny by comparison to most European nations. I definitely wouldnt call our car fleet particularly flash or shallow. It’s in the main very conservative and modest.
I wish it were otherwise but the tax regime prohibits for most of us

You answered your own question. The tax is why the fleet is as you say. However we are addicted to buying with credit (pcp etc - essentially money people dont have) I dont have the figures but anecdotally speaking we must have a massive ratio of our sales bought 'on tick'. That can only be down to a few factors, one of which is people's materialism and obsession with having the best car on their street to impress the neighbours.

Lord Nikon

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Why would you move your production of heavy expensive machinery to a small island with shoddy infrastructure even further away from the main markets?

Machinery/tooling in English.
Main markets, if right hand drive, England and Ireland.

road_high

terrydel wrote: »

You answered your own question. The tax is why the fleet is as you say. However we are addicted to buying with credit (pcp etc - essentially money people dont have) I dont have the figures but anecdotally speaking we must have a massive ratio of our sales bought 'on tick'. That can only be down to a few factors, one of which is people's materialism and obsession with having the best car on their street to impress the neighbours.

Yes but if we’re keeping up with the Jones then why is our car fleet relatively modest in make up?
I think we’re not overly ostentatious re cars. Houses are worse

GarIT

Lord Nikon wrote: »

If some of the manufacturers are worried, would they possible relocate their production plants to Ireland?

I'm not sure how many companies actually produce cars in the UK. I know of some big manufacturing companies considering moves to The Netherlands.

It's not production but Jaguar Land Rover has moved some of its R&D to Shannon.

ednwireland

GarIT wrote: »

I'm not sure how many companies actually produce cars in the UK. I know of some big manufacturing companies considering moves to The Netherlands.

It's not production but Jaguar Land Rover has moved some of its R&D to Shannon.

jaguar landrover speke, nissan sunderland, honda burnaston, vauxhall luton, mini - somewhere. thats the big ones i can think of

Heres Johnny

The only reason I can see for asking prices in the UK to drop is if they suffer a deep recession, which is possible, but not certain. Nothing about brexit is certain. Or economic modelling. They could potentially have a boom! But I doubt it.

VAT we are not sure of yet.
VRT will continue to exist.
Import duty and taxes we are not sure of yet.
If there's VAT, VRT and import duty that's 3 separate taxes. Hard to see all of them together to be honest.

STG v Euro exchange rate we just don't know yet. Is the FX rate at the moment priced to include a no deal? Not sure if it will go further or not it's already moved a lot. Or if a deal is struck will it move back the other way?

Overall if VAT at 23% and import duty At 10% become payable, will this be offset by cheaper STG and cheaper asking prices? I would doubt it but we don't know the particulars. I personally think we are heading for a no deal brexit but that's only my opinion.

From afar, I can't see brexit making it any easier or cheaper to buy a used car from UK. The opposite probably but so much still to be clarified.

Overall I think brexit will be an absolute mess for these 2 islands, the rest of Europe will be fine.

ELM327

Heres Johnny wrote: »

The only reason I can see for asking prices in the UK to drop is if they suffer a deep recession, which is possible, but not certain. Nothing about brexit is certain. Or economic modelling. They could potentially have a boom! But I doubt it.

VAT we are not sure of yet.
VRT will continue to exist.
Import duty and taxes we are not sure of yet.
If there's VAT, VRT and import duty that's 3 separate taxes. Hard to see all of them together to be honest.

STG v Euro exchange rate we just don't know yet. Is the FX rate at the moment priced to include a no deal? Not sure if it will go further or not it's already moved a lot. Or if a deal is struck will it move back the other way?

Overall if VAT at 23% and import duty At 10% become payable, will this be offset by cheaper STG and cheaper asking prices? I would doubt it but we don't know the particulars. I personally think we are heading for a no deal brexit but that's only my opinion.

From afar, I can't see brexit making it any easier or cheaper to buy a used car from UK. The opposite probably but so much still to be clarified.

Overall I think brexit will be an absolute mess for these 2 islands, the rest of Europe will be fine.

Have you ever imported a car from outside the EU before?
I have.


You get charged VAT, Customs+ Excise, and VRT.
The first two are charged not only on the price of the car, but the price of the car + sales tax in original country + shipping cost to get the car here.
It's a ripoff if you import a car from outside the EU.

hi5

Also import duty on goods vehicles is 22% if over 2.5 litres and less than 5 tonnes.

ELM327

hi5 wrote: »

Also import duty on goods vehicles is 22% if over 2.5 litres and less than 5 tonnes.

Think I got stung with that too.
7.4 litres and 3.2 tonnes unladen, 5 tonne DGVW (from memory)

Guy:Incognito

terrydel wrote: »

Thats Irish people to a tee.
Must be the most materialistic, shallow nation around.

Except we buy new cars at pretty much the same rate per capita as the UK..........



But this "people in Ireland buying new cars to be like the neighbours / the cheap tax" horse**** never let's up.

Heres Johnny

ELM327 wrote: »

Heres Johnny wrote: »

The only reason I can see for asking prices in the UK to drop is if they suffer a deep recession, which is possible, but not certain. Nothing about brexit is certain. Or economic modelling. They could potentially have a boom! But I doubt it.

VAT we are not sure of yet.
VRT will continue to exist.
Import duty and taxes we are not sure of yet.
If there's VAT, VRT and import duty that's 3 separate taxes. Hard to see all of them together to be honest.

STG v Euro exchange rate we just don't know yet. Is the FX rate at the moment priced to include a no deal? Not sure if it will go further or not it's already moved a lot. Or if a deal is struck will it move back the other way?

Overall if VAT at 23% and import duty At 10% become payable, will this be offset by cheaper STG and cheaper asking prices? I would doubt it but we don't know the particulars. I personally think we are heading for a no deal brexit but that's only my opinion.

From afar, I can't see brexit making it any easier or cheaper to buy a used car from UK. The opposite probably but so much still to be clarified.

Overall I think brexit will be an absolute mess for these 2 islands, the rest of Europe will be fine.

Have you ever imported a car from outside the EU before?
I have.


You get charged VAT, Customs+ Excise, and VRT.
The first two are charged not only on the price of the car, but the price of the car + sales tax in original country + shipping cost to get the car here.
It's a ripoff if you import a car from outside the EU.

I haven't to be honest. I suppose the EU is a protectionist trading bloc really so all 3 might well be imposed like from outside now.

nim1bdeh38l2cw

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

it's bound to put plenty of cheap unwanted motors our way...

I'm failing to see the correlation between this and a 20% collapse in new car sales in the UK.

Once the UK exits the customs union, that'll be the end of used car exports to ourselves as they will be subject to VAT @ 23% and Customs Duty @ 10% (WTO rate for the import of cars into the EU in the absence of a different agreement) - both of those are levied on the gross value, including UK VAT and the cost of transport - now of course, you may be able to claim the UK VAT (20%) back, but I'm not certain on that.

Heres Johnny wrote: »

I haven't to be honest. I suppose the EU is a protectionist trading bloc really so all 3 might well be imposed like from outside now.

All 3 _will_ be imposed.

Heres Johnny

Mariah Better Snobbishness wrote: »

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

it's bound to put plenty of cheap unwanted motors our way...

I'm failing to see the correlation between this and a 20% collapse in new car sales in the UK.

Once the UK exits the customs union, that'll be the end of used car exports to ourselves as they will be subject to VAT @ 23% and Customs Duty @ 10% (WTO rate for the import of cars into the EU in the absence of a different agreement) - both of those are levied on the gross value, including UK VAT and the cost of transport - now of course, you may be able to claim the UK VAT (20%) back, but I'm not certain on that.

Heres Johnny wrote: »

I haven't to be honest. I suppose the EU is a protectionist trading bloc really so all 3 might well be imposed like from outside now.

All 3 _will_ be imposed.

If so get your cars soon folks especially if you want a decent priced machine the savings are significant, ridiculous in some cases. I just got my next 5 years car from UK anyway so I'm well sorted thank god.

newmember2

Heres Johnny wrote: »

...I just got my next 5 years car from UK anyway so I'm well sorted thank god.

...spill the beans...

Heres Johnny

newmember? wrote: »

Heres Johnny wrote: »

...I just got my next 5 years car from UK anyway so I'm well sorted thank god.

...spill the beans...

2014 530d msport

newmember2

Heres Johnny wrote: »

2014 530d msport

enjoy

elperello

coylemj wrote: »

I'm not sure if the original sale date will count for much.

Post Brexit, the word is that 23% VAT will apply to UK imports.

Nobody knows for sure.

Would exporters possibly get a refund of UK VAT?

Casati

road_high wrote: »

Absolutely. This will increase used prices. Our own new car sales have been somewhat sluggish and if they’re scarecer, more expensive (because of Brexit) in the U.K. then prices will rise here.

The best thing that can happen us is that UK imports are prohibitively expensive either via duty or vat added in addition to vrt.

You will see then see used cars increase in value which in turn will reduce cost to change into a new car.

This will be a net benefit to Irish consumers, and not just new car buyers as older secondhand cars will also increase in value so the cost to change up will be less for everybody- (except the punter with nothing to trade)

At the moment folks are buying dear but on cheap credit and selling cheap, or buying cheap (ex UK secondhand) and selling even cheaper. A car 10 years old should be worth 20% or 30% of its new value but it’s worth maybe 5% or 10%

CJhaughey

The flip side is that anything nice or slightly unusual won't be arriving here at all.
Abarth? Forget it. High spec stuff will be unusual as most cars here are not the same as the UK. Look at the kind of VW's being imported mostly high spec stuff that is not available here or never imported due to the VRT being high on extras.
We will go back to being largely consumers of econoboxes like Dacia et al.

Bass Reeves

Casati wrote: »

The best thing that can happen us is that UK imports are prohibitively expensive either via duty or vat added in addition to vrt.

You will see then see used cars increase in value which in turn will reduce cost to change into a new car.

This will be a net benefit to Irish consumers, and not just new car buyers as older secondhand cars will also increase in value so the cost to change up will be less for everybody- (except the punter with nothing to trade)

At the moment folks are buying dear but on cheap credit and selling cheap, or buying cheap (ex UK secondhand) and selling even cheaper. A car 10 years old should be worth 20% or 30% of its new value but it’s worth maybe 5% or 10%

Used cars in Ireland are overpriced anyway at present. Was looking at. Hyundai I-35 lately for the better half. It was the business spec car alloys, leather seats parking sensors etc. 151 car 100km. They are about 31k list new AFAIK. Garage main dealer was looking for 18k for one. This car is 4 years old in a few months time. If I bought it at that price or even near it I reckon that I would suffer more depreciation over the next 4 years(and higher maintenance costs) than the person that had it from new.

PCP finance is keeping an artificial floor under car price's in Ireland at present. I have only been in 2-3 forecourts at present and amount of stock in two of them was frightening. They have no room to park new cars when they come in. It reminds me of 2008 before car price's crashed. The other thing I notice is the difference in price that garages are trying to maintain on between standard spec and high spec cars. It is often not far off the first day difference in cost.

Del2005

terrydel wrote: »

I dont have the figures but anecdotally speaking we must have a massive ratio of our sales bought 'on tick'. That can only be down to a few factors, one of which is people's materialism and obsession with having the best car on their street to impress the neighbours.

If you look at TV ads from the USA or the UK none have the price of the car they are all monthly repayments. We buy cars most other countries lease them, which is why we mostly have low spec because they are cheaper to buy whereas in countries where they lease they can lease better specs.

elperello

The most important spec. item in this country would appear to be the number plate.
This seems to suit the motor trade.

Widdensushi

elperello wrote: »

The most important spec. item in this country would appear to be the number plate.
This seems to suit the motor trade.

It shouldnt but it irritates me to see people pay thousands to change the number plate,each to their own i suppose