Recession predictions

Wanderer78

Arthur Daley wrote:

Ok so basically a massive social housing programme, and make work schemes on top of the €240bn in existing debt. At least we know where we stand anyway.

Not just social housing, but all kinds of housing and accommodation, which would be primarily done by the private sector, but with public money, as our over reliance on private sector financing to do so via credit creation, has largely failed. Again deficits are not as bad as made out to be, particularly by more conservative ideologies, they're simply the public entity of the money supply. The previous boom, and subsequent bust has proven that an over reliance on private sector financing to carry out this critical need is in fact dangerous, as it causes an over inflation of land and property prices, and dramatic rise in private debt which was unsustainable, and the rest is history.....

KyussB

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Ok so basically a massive social housing programme, and make work schemes on top of the €240bn in existing debt. At least we know where we stand anyway.

I didn't say social housing. It's a bit odd to consider the challenges of climate changing emissions reduction retrofitting, public transport and internet infrastructure to be 'make work' .

It's ok to just directly express an ideological objection to governments employing people, rather than misstating what was said to try and make it look disfavourable.
The latter wastes time/space, as we'll just end up debating what was and was not said, rather than discussing actual economics.

Can't understand what inflation mean at the moment
Inflation is when people has money at the same time when shelves in shops empty.At the time we have full shelves in shops and no money because no jobs.
Hiperinflation is when I will pay my 25 years mortgage from 4 weeks wages.But I think bank will not happy about it and will bring rates up.
The government said clearly about rates increasing on lending market.
The bigger bills unemployed people will has to pay the less money they will spend in shop.
The less money they will be spend in shop the more prices will falling what mean deflation not inflation.
People not getting wages and PUP ,they getting PUP which replacing them wages so we getting steady ammount comming into packets or even less then people was getting in wages.
Deflation that what comming but not inflation.

Growing ammount of savings will move economy forward !? Or it show that people getting wealty !?Or maybe it is recession prediction because people has memory from 2008 and getting ready for bad days !?
My savings rising because I try be ready for day when I will lose my job not because I have nowere to spend them.

Geuze

Anybody calling for more State expenditure on housing needs to explain how the supply-side issues will be dealt with.

A quick browse of Boards or AAM shows huge increases in construction costs.

There simply aren't enough skilled construction staff.

I want more housing supply, just like everybody else.

I agree that the market isn't solving the housing problem.

I agree with more State intervention, specifically to boost supply and cut costs.

However, simply calling for more expenditure / demand ignores the lack of inputs / sites / workers.

KyussB

There's no part of housing/accommodation construction where the government can't resolve a supply shortage - including workers and skills.

Wanderer78

Geuze wrote:

However, simply calling for more expenditure / demand ignores the lack of inputs / sites / workers.

Yup, our housing issues have become extremely serious, the finances alone will not solve the problem, we need to get cracking with training people, and fast. The state is the largest land owner, so there shouldn't be issues there, but there does seem to be issues regarding new regs since the crash, increasing reluctance to build, so that must also be addressed. We 're very quickly running out of time with this one, the longer this goes on, the more serious it's becoming, and the more serious long term effects it's creating, both economically and socially

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Yup, our housing issues have become extremely serious, the finances alone will not solve the problem, we need to get cracking with training people, and fast. The state is the largest land owner, so there shouldn't be issues there, but there does seem to be issues regarding new regs since the crash, increasing reluctance to build, so that must also be addressed. We 're very quickly running out of time with this one, the longer this goes on, the more serious it's becoming, and the more serious long term effects it's creating, both economically and socially

What builders lobby do is putting huge pressure on government using media trying make government buy houses from builders and pay builders for built houses because due with unemployment economy downturn and buyers shortage builders does'nt want end the same as in 2008.
The ECB printing money to move economy of EU forward lending those money with zero per cent and lobby groups in many countries are fighting for them because there will be money shortage due with economy downturn.
If we will look to how many governments in history was fighting against economy downturns we will see how much money been invested in infrastructure how many people been employed and how many people made billions.Same here again.
At the moment we not just see how builders try grab big piece of cake we also see different fantasies from groups of " green energy supporters" etc,etc,etc
What is another predictions of recession comming.
All this noises about supply shortage / demand on media is paid preasure to government from lobby groups and zombi propaganda for tax payers which will have pay debs of government.

Wanderer78

^^^Jesus, how do even try unpack that one

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

^^^Jesus, how do even try unpack that one

Inflation and unemployment will be very interesting combination

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote: »

Inflation and unemployment will be very interesting combination

ah we ll figure it out, theres loads of ideas around the place, and a shed load of work needing to be done, we ll be fine

Geuze

If anybody can suggest ways to increase the numbers of plumbers/carpenters/electricians/builders within 12 months, I'd love to know.

We have hundreds of thousands unemployed today, yet we struggle to get these workers.

Geuze

Geuze wrote: »

If anybody can suggest ways to increase the numbers of plumbers/carpenters/electricians/builders within 12 months, I'd love to know.

We have hundreds of thousands unemployed today, yet we struggle to get these workers.

Population of Brazil 214 millions,many of them working on sites already.
The next way will be company Seatek which getting paid by government for employing unemployed people.If unemployed refuse job offer his job seeker allowance will be reduced by 50 per cent,if he will refuse again his allowance will be canceled.That how Ireland came to full employment in 2019.
No problem at all !

KyussB

Geuze wrote: »

If anybody can suggest ways to increase the numbers of plumbers/carpenters/electricians/builders within 12 months, I'd love to know.

We have hundreds of thousands unemployed today, yet we struggle to get these workers.

We've had almost a decade of housing/accommodation crisis in one degree or another, and chances are we'll have another decade of a housing/accommodation crisis - with a very large number of those years having sizeable unemployment.

Are you suggesting that, given a crisis likely to last ~20 years from start to finish, that the government can't hire people and train them into all of those roles, within any of that timeframe?

The housing crisis isn't going to fix itself while we're busy not training anyone into the roles needed to fix it, so we've got plenty of time to do that...

Wanderer78

Geuze wrote: »

If anybody can suggest ways to increase the numbers of plumbers/carpenters/electricians/builders within 12 months, I'd love to know.

We have hundreds of thousands unemployed today, yet we struggle to get these workers.

obviously covid has had a dreadful affect with employment markets, but there will be a slow return as soon as it moves on, if you re talking about the long term unemployed, thats a much different kettle of fish, as thats generally due to extremely complex social issues, which certainly wont be solved as quickly unfortunately

To be honest I more worry about were we will get property buyers with 25 per cent unemployment when PUP and other supports will be ended.Because at the moment we don't have problems with supply we have problem with buyers without money which can't afford buy property at existing price and apply for social housing

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote: »

To be honest I more worry about were we will get property buyers with 25 per cent unemployment when PUP and other supports will be ended.Because at the moment we don't have problems with supply we have problem with buyers without money which can't afford buy property at existing price and apply for social housing

this is incorrect, we re still experiencing a major supply issue, and by the looks of it, this will remain to be for a very long time, apparently most houses on the market are complete dirt, and prices are off walls for them. looks like theres still some out there that have access to the funds to buy, also sounds like many sales are falling through

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

this is incorrect, we re still experiencing a major supply issue, and by the looks of it, this will remain to be for a very long time, apparently most houses on the market are complete dirt, and prices are off walls for them. looks like theres still some out there that have access to the funds to buy, also sounds like many sales are falling through

2 guys from different shoes companies went to warm country for market research
One guy sent letter to his boss later
Boss,totally wrong invest here because they doesn't wear shoes
The other guy sent letter to his boss
Boss,we need invest here! Huge money on way ! Nobody doesn't have shoes here !

Geuze

KyussB wrote: »

Are you suggesting that, given a crisis likely to last ~20 years from start to finish, that the government can't hire people and train them into all of those roles, within any of that timeframe?

The housing crisis isn't going to fix itself while we're busy not training anyone into the roles needed to fix it, so we've got plenty of time to do that...

I am suggesting the following:

it seems young people don't want to join these occupations
there are shortages
clearly there are skills mis-matches between unemployed and vacancies


Here are my policy proposals

(1) maybe give temporary income tax relief to returning Irish, who commit to work in these trades [that may be legally difficult?]

(2) attempt to change the mindset of parents, to convince them that these occupations are good

(3) boost the "status" of apprenticeships / lower fees / give grants / any other suggestions?

(4) reduce the numbers going to uni / 300 points courses

What I mean is - do anything, and everything to increase the supply of these workers


I suggest the Housing Agency / LDA / councils enter into long-term 10yr contracts with building contractors, this would help bring certainty.

Geuze

Deleted User wrote: »

To be honest I more worry about were we will get property buyers with 25 per cent unemployment when PUP and other supports will be ended.Because at the moment we don't have problems with supply we have problem with buyers without money which can't afford buy property at existing price and apply for social housing

This is false.

There is serious under-supply of houses for sale in Ireland.

There is way too little new construction.

Wanderer78

Geuze wrote: »

I am suggesting the following:

it seems young people don't want to join these occupations
there are shortages
clearly there are skills mis-matches between unemployed and vacancies


Here are my policy proposals

(1) maybe give temporary income tax relief to returning Irish, who commit to work in these trades [that may be legally difficult?]

(2) attempt to change the mindset of parents, to convince them that these occupations are good

(3) boost the "status" of apprenticeships / lower fees / give grants / any other suggestions?

(4) reduce the numbers going to uni / 300 points courses

What I mean is - do anything, and everything to increase the supply of these workers


I suggest the Housing Agency / LDA / councils enter into long-term 10yr contracts with building contractors, this would help bring certainty.

some good points, but i wouldnt necessarily penalize third level entrants, increasing points would do just that, theres not a hope in hell i would have gotten into third level with such a proposal, and i suspect many of my fellow class mates would have been the same. many have since gone on and created very successful careers, all playing vital roles in society. opening up our third level to more has significantly changed our society and economy for the better, it has brought us to this exact point, with major success stories, and failures of course, but that doesnt mean we should implement barriers towards access for some

but i will agree in regards dramatically changing how we present trades, what we have is beyond diabolical. our educational system, particularly at the earlier stages, secondary, effectively dont represent the trades at all, our system is in fact academically biased. as we re now finding out, and painfully, society actually needs a multitude of differently skilled and trained people, all working in some sort of unison, in order to provide us with all of our needs, this of course includes academically trained, but also trades, alternatives, lowly educated, even none educated individuals etc etc. i maybe wrong in regards the country, but i think Switzerland has a dedicated educational and training system for its trades, it is on a similar level of respect as its academic counter parts, this is where we truly need to go with the trades, its a critical function of a society.

KyussB

Geuze wrote: »

I am suggesting the following:

it seems young people don't want to join these occupations
there are shortages
clearly there are skills mis-matches between unemployed and vacancies


Here are my policy proposals

(1) maybe give temporary income tax relief to returning Irish, who commit to work in these trades [that may be legally difficult?]

(2) attempt to change the mindset of parents, to convince them that these occupations are good

(3) boost the "status" of apprenticeships / lower fees / give grants / any other suggestions?

(4) reduce the numbers going to uni / 300 points courses

What I mean is - do anything, and everything to increase the supply of these workers


I suggest the Housing Agency / LDA / councils enter into long-term 10yr contracts with building contractors, this would help bring certainty.

I highly doubt that people would desire to remain long-term-unemployed rather than take a construction job. The entire construction/development sector and accommodation market is manipulated to the point that it works nothing like a regular market - so in such a warped set of markets, the very last place I'd lean for explaining that, is "people don't want that type of work".

There is more than enough direct evidence of systemically warped/manipulated markets in that sector, to make that explanation basically an insult to the unemployed.

You are presenting more market-based solutions, after almost a decade of market failure and endless failed attempts at market-based solutions due to that.

A Job Guarantee, which necessarily is combined with training for the work being done, can solve this tomorrow pretty much - getting a huge number of people training into these exact roles, and directly building accommodation.

If the private sector wants those newly trained workers bad enough, then they would be available: They just have to outbid the JG wage and provide job conditions that are better than the JG, to entice workers out of the JG.

You would have us wait another decade using destined-to-fail solutions with no timeline for success.

Direct government employment can instead start solving this pretty much immediately (as well as meeting the bigger primary goal of permanent Full Output/Employment), and shortly after the program ramps up it can deliver fairly direct/credible targets and timelines for meeting them.

Geuze

Geuze wrote: »

This is false.

There is serious under-supply of houses for sale in Ireland.

There is way too little new construction.

I am not the one who believe that.
Media getting paid by builders and lobby groups for singing those songs.

Geuze

KyussB wrote: »

I highly doubt that people would desire to remain long-term-unemployed rather than take a construction job. The entire construction/development sector and accommodation market is manipulated to the point that it works nothing like a regular market - so in such a warped set of markets, the very last place I'd lean for explaining that, is "people don't want that type of work".

Existing builders and parents specifically tell me that there aren't enough young people entering the trades.

(Regarding plumbing, I can sort of understand it, down on knees in water/wet)

Builders from NI travel south to work.

My own cousin left plumbing during the 2009/2010 crash, AFAIK, and works for a MNC in medical devices.

He tells me there are other ex-trades people in the MNC.

We need to made the construction sector more steady, less boom and bust, to convince workers to join this sector.

Geuze

KyussB wrote: »

Direct government employment can instead start solving this pretty much immediately (as well as meeting the bigger primary goal of permanent Full Output/Employment), and shortly after the program ramps up it can deliver fairly direct/credible targets and timelines for meeting them.

Nobody is suggesting the local governments directly hire plumbers/carpenters/block-layers, etc.

(Maybe the extreme-left suggest this??)

That would lead to further inefficiency, like the HSE.

As they say about the hospitals: it's run by the unions and the doctors.

We don't want to spread that inefficiency / excessive costs / low productivity from the HSE to construction.


We do need more large scale building firms, with a steady flow of new construction.

KyussB

The Job Guarantee precisely does make the construction sector more steady - when the private sector goes tits up, the Job Guarantee is there for all construction workers to shift into - there's endless infrastructural work that needs doing (particularly given the housing crisis, the need for mass climate change emissions retrofitting, simple public transport and general transport infrastructure expansion needs etc. etc., even getting a proper national broadband network done).

As I said to another poster earlier, you appear to just have an ideological objection to the government ever hiring anyone directly - and would rather leave people unemployed and leave the economy far below Full Output/Employment - simply for reasons of ideological purity.

The most inefficient thing of all is idle workers, when there is urgent/useful work to do, and the resources available to do it.

There is nothing more inefficient than a gigantic Output Gap - being below Full Output/Employment - by definition, because it is a permanent loss to GDP. GDP (not GDP Growth, raw GDP) will forever remain lower than it could have potentially risen to, every single day there's an Output Gap with necessary work left undone - that is a permanent irrecoverable loss to the economy, that is impossible to restore (closing the Output Gap only restores GDP Growth, it can never restore the loss to raw GDP).

Wanderer78

Revolution 1917 wrote:

I am not the one who believe that. Media getting paid by builders and lobby groups for singing those songs.

I'd class this as a your problem, because the facts are, we ve been suffering from chronic under supply since the previous crash, and this still is the case

Geuze wrote:

That would lead to further inefficiency, like the HSE.

We need to stop with this inefficiency talk, it's bloody childish at this stage, this stems from the Thatcher era, in which the primary goal was to thrash the public sector, and promote the private sector. It's glaringly obvious the failures of this thinking, yes there are indeed inefficiencies in the public sector, but so to there is in the private sector, one of the main inefficiencies of the private sector being rent seeking or wealth extraction. It is in fact these activities why our construction industry is completely wrecked, and why we 're now in an extremely serious situation regarding housing and accommodation, so much so, that this is now having extremely serious implications for all citizens futures

Geuze

Geuze wrote: »

Existing builders and parents specifically tell me that there aren't enough young people entering the trades.

(Regarding plumbing, I can sort of understand it, down on knees in water/wet)

Builders from NI travel south to work.

My own cousin left plumbing during the 2009/2010 crash, AFAIK, and works for a MNC in medical devices.

He tells me there are other ex-trades people in the MNC.

We need to made the construction sector more steady, less boom and bust, to convince workers to join this sector.

There is plenty young Brazilians making timber frame houses at 11.50 per hour and more on way after because economic situation in Brazil will be worse.The one thing what builders worry about is back to bussines asap get money made before recession will come.Nobody care about shortage of anything they all care built house asap and get rid of it getting best price.Because all they know that recession on way.

Voltex

Geuze wrote: »

I am suggesting the following:

it seems young people don't want to join these occupations
there are shortages
clearly there are skills mis-matches between unemployed and vacancies


Here are my policy proposals

(1) maybe give temporary income tax relief to returning Irish, who commit to work in these trades [that may be legally difficult?]

(2) attempt to change the mindset of parents, to convince them that these occupations are good

(3) boost the "status" of apprenticeships / lower fees / give grants / any other suggestions?

(4) reduce the numbers going to uni / 300 points courses

What I mean is - do anything, and everything to increase the supply of these workers


I suggest the Housing Agency / LDA / councils enter into long-term 10yr contracts with building contractors, this would help bring certainty.

Good grief! To me, that's the precepts of a planned economy, irrespective of any meritorious sentiments.

Geuze

Voltex wrote: »

Good grief! To me, that's the precepts of a planned economy, irrespective of any meritorious sentiments.

Yes.

Believe me, I would prefer if the market delivered tens of thousands of houses each year.

It hasn't, since 2010, and it isn't, and there isn't any sign that it will.

So State action is required.

That action might be: remove all barriers to further increases in supply.

By that I mean, create the conditions to allow the supply-side to increase.

Specifically, I mean that at any selling price €x today, the market will supply 20,000 houses, then change the conditions, so that costs fall, so that at the same price €x, the market will supply 40,000 houses.


Specifically, change the supply conditions, so that there is much more supply at any and all prices.


I do not want the State to boost the demand-side of the market.

KyussB

Geuze wrote: »

Yes.

Believe me, I would prefer if the market delivered tens of thousands of houses each year.

It hasn't, since 2010, and it isn't, and there isn't any sign that it will.

So State action is required.

That action might be: remove all barriers to further increases in supply.

By that I mean, create the conditions to allow the supply-side to increase.

Specifically, I mean that at any selling price €x today, the market will supply 20,000 houses, then change the conditions, so that costs fall, so that at the same price €x, the market will supply 40,000 houses.


Specifically, change the supply conditions, so that there is much more supply at any and all prices.


I do not want the State to boost the demand-side of the market.

That's still a market-based solution, to a sector suffering severe market failure. That means continuing to wait another decade to see if the market-fairies fix things.

We have all of a large amount of idle labour, idle skills/training capacity, and idle resources - all ready for combining for the purpose of building accommodation.

If the markets don't want to do all of that, the only option left is for the state to do all of that - with economic conditions making this the perfect time for doing that, training up workers while the pandemic is still going on, and then getting building as soon as restrictions ease enough for that.

It is inherently inefficient to leave workers idle, when there is useful work to do and the resources available to do it.