Northern Hemisphere Snow/Ice Winter 2018/19

Kermit.de.frog

Current situation




It's about to begin :cool:

Snow cover in to a good chunk of central Siberia within the next 72 hours and central northern and western Canada within the next 120 hours as the first cold incursions occur.

Keep an eye over the next couple of days...



I'll keep the thread and imagery updated.

Pa ElGrande

Farmers’ Almanac Winter Outlook At A Glance: (For the continental US)
27 Aug 2018

• Colder-than-normal conditions are predicted from the Continental Divide east through the Appalachians.
• Above-normal snowfall predicted for Great Lakes, Midwest, New England, Pacific Northwest
• Frigid weather is expected in mid-February, which may also bring blustery and bitter winds, widespread snow showers, especially in zones 1, 2, and 3.
• Winter will hang on with stormy conditions up through the official start of spring, especially for the East Coast.

The Almanac also forecasts an unusually snowy and/or wet winter across the Pacific Northwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic States; in these regions, the thermometer will be hovering just above or just below the freezing mark, which means some of the precipitation may fall as either ice or rain/freezing rain.

<snip>

A Late Start to Spring?

Mid-March could be stormy virtually coast to coast, bringing snow, sleet, and/or rain as well as strong and gusty winds to many areas. In particular, we are red-flagging March 20–23 for a potent East Coast storm that could deliver a wide variety of wintry precipitation just as we are making the transition from winter to spring. So, no matter what the groundhog says in February, you’ll know winter isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

(Sounds like last spring, doesn’t it? Speaking of which, find out how the Farmers’ Almanac forecast fared last year.)

Kermit.de.frog

Can boardsies see the images? Not working for me occasionally.

Lucreto

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Can boardsies see the images? Not working for me occasionally.

I can't see them but I did when the thread just started.

Kermit.de.frog

Ok, thanks. Well, here are the links. These update automatically each day.

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif


https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif


Not much to write home about just yet.

fritzelly

Are you saying this will be the winter to beat all winters?
Bring it on (but maybe a bit too early to be speculating, feck lets enjoy the last bits of summer first)

sryanbruen

Mhmmmmm.....

Missymoohaa

sryanbruen wrote:

Mhmmmmm.....

OK Syran I give up what are we looking at here? The next ice age? Lol

Kermit.de.frog

There has been an increase in snow cover over parts of northern Siberia overnight. Nothing unusual so far but there will be rapid buildup between now and the end of the month as cold incursions become more frequent and start to pool.

I'd like to see the start of a build back west of the snow pack toward Europe by the middle/end of October and into November and Scandanavia will have it's first snowfields by the end of the month which is standard.

There should be snow into the northwest territories and Nunavut in Canada over the next few days too with the season's first real incursion there.

sryanbruen

Missymoohaa wrote: »

OK Syran I give up what are we looking at here? The next ice age? Lol

Ice age.... no way :pac:. You're looking at snow cover gradually increasing over Siberia which will continue to do so during the Autumn and I expect it to be a fast season of snow cover extent into Eurasia via a strong Siberian High. I talk about these sorts of things in the Winter discussion thread if you'd like to see what it means for Winter.

Artane2002

Siberian snow cover as of yesterday. An increase from last week (but less snow cover than there was 2 days ago)

RebelButtMunch

Artane2002 wrote: »

Siberian snow cover as of yesterday. An increase from last week (but less snow cover than there was 2 days ago)

What's the significance of that?

Artane2002

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

What's the significance of that?

In October, we like to see the snow cover expanding westwards. Winter is more likely to be cold if there is significant Siberian snow cover. I'm not sure if the snow itself has any significance but the westwards progress of the snow is supported by the Siberian High, a key player in winter. A strong Siberian High can bring cold conditions from the east here (although if it isn't aligned properly it could bring mild and wet weather)

Artane2002

There has been a notable increase in snow in the extreme east of Russia as of yesterday. There's a slight decrease in the south of Siberia but nothing to lose sleep over. Post #11 has the image (the image updates itself everyday).

This is less important for Ireland but since this is a NH snow/ice thread, there has been a massive increase in snow cover in the far northwest of Canada.

Artane2002

Slight increase in the snow cover in Siberia. Post #11 has the picture (for some reason the picture won't load on the touch site..).

sryanbruen

Artane2002 wrote: »

Slight increase in the snow cover in Siberia. Post #11 has the picture (for some reason the picture won't load on the touch site..).

The picture doesn't load for me either (PC). I usually save the pic and post it on an image hosting site like Imgur.

Artane2002

This should be working now.

Gaoth Laidir

Arctic sea ice extent is nearing its annual minimum now. Currently the around the same as last year and up on 2016, 15 and 12.

Pa ElGrande

Weather Warning Issued Across Iceland — High Winds and Heavy Snow Expected

Meteorologists at the Iceland Met Office likened the expected snowfall to that in 2012, when a state of emergency was declared in the north of the country.

At that time, the storm unfolded before Iceland’s famous sheep roundups had been completed, and many sheep died from being buried in the snow for days on end.

All across the country, farmers have begun rounding up their sheep, gathering them in from the mountains to the north, where the most severe weather is expected during the next few days.

ZX7R

I would expect to see a large increase in snow cover next week ,as the first artic outbreak is due to take place eastern Europe to feel the cold .
To put in context 30c where my wife lives in Poland today next week day time temperature will be a max of 4c

Kermit.de.frog

First snow flurries of the season in Barrow, Alaska. It's the most northerly town in the United States. The sea there will be forming ice soon.

http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam

Looking healthy over the northern latitudes temperature wise for the time of year, colder than average generally at the moment.

Pa ElGrande

Snow is falling in Alberta, the biggest round is still ahead

Friday, September 21, 2018, 11:33 AM - September snow records have already been broken in Alberta as rounds of snow put an end to the summer season. More shovel-able snow is forecast through Saturday with warnings to drivers for deteriorating road conditions. More on the snowfall amounts and timing, below

source

Alberta farmers fret over recent snowfalls that delayed harvest, damaged crops

Some Alberta farmers are concerned about their crops after a late-summer snowfall blanketed parts of the province, with more flurries expected in the forecast.

Early season snow can squash crops that grow upright, like wheat and barley, make them harder to harvest and decimate their quality, leaving farmers with a less valuable product.

source

Side effects of last Winter . . .


Erie hospital sees ‘baby boom’ after last winter’s record-breaking snowfall

nacho libre

It seems when we get cold and snowy weather, places like Alberta often get milder weather. Let's hope this September snow is not a sign of things to come this winter!

Artane2002

There has been a good build of snow over Eastern Siberia recently. I'll upload an image later when I get on my laptop.

sryanbruen

I think this should be noted.

The snow cover over Norway on Saturday just gone is quite a lot for September 29th. Back to 1998, I could only find three close examples; 2012, 2010 and 2003.



2003



2010



2012

Tabnabs

Winter has arrived in the mountains of Norway.

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1046724663915745280

Artane2002

Less Siberian snow cover now than there has been on this day in previous years. The closest comparisons to this are 2011 (most similar) and 2012. 2009 is fairly similar but not really as close as the other two.

I still think it's a bit early to worry about this though. 2009 had even less snow than this but we all know how the winter turned out. Must mention that there was a very rapid expansion of snow cover by Halloween 2009 which further proves the point that it's too early to be worrying for now.

Artane2002

Big increase in snow over Northern Sweden/Finland. Some increases in Siberia too.

sryanbruen

Artane2002 wrote: »

Big increase in snow over Northern Sweden/Finland. Some increases in Siberia too.

Whilst Siberian snow cover is lacking so far compared to previous years (especially 2017 for instance), Scandinavian snow cover continues to increase dramatically. In fact in the archive, I could not find as much snow cover over Scandinavia back to 1998 as 2018 on 5 October. Closest matches being 2003 and 2009. Notice 2003 and 2009 didn't have large extents of snow cover over Siberia either (especially 2009) on 5th October.

Artane2002

sryanbruen wrote: »

Whilst Siberian snow cover is lacking so far compared to previous years (especially 2017 for instance), Scandinavian snow cover continues to increase dramatically. In fact in the archive, I could not find as much snow cover over Scandinavia back to 1998 as 2018 on 5 October. Closest matches being 2003 and 2009. Notice 2003 and 2009 didn't have large extents of snow cover over Siberia either (especially 2009) on 5th October.

I would guess 2009 is going to be one of the years in the final analogues for winter. If that Eastern European High being shown by the models comes off, I'd expect lots more increase in snow over Siberia because of northerlies coming down there. The warm air being sucked up by that high would displace the cold to Siberia. Caveat is I'm no expert.

Here is a chart to illustrate what I'm saying

Artane2002

Sryan kindly found this tweet yesterday which shows the extreme Warm Air Advection (WAA) going into the Arctic.

https://twitter.com/TerliWetter/status/1048658496240189440

sryanbruen

EPS show a massive increase in Siberian snow cover in the next week, an implication for a negative AO.

https://twitter.com/longrangesnow/status/1049233376475938816?s=21

GeneHunt

Artane2002 wrote: »

Sryan kindly found this tweet yesterday which shows the extreme Warm Air Advection (WAA) going into the Arctic.

https://twitter.com/TerliWetter/status/1048658496240189440

Again a massive blocking over Europe, especially over Scandinavia (have some kind of deja vu) - same Situation with the Jet over the Atlantic like in Summer. This is 500hPa anomaly graphic.

Could we (here in the British Isles) be lucky enough to get a mild winter (2018/2019), if there's a blocking over Europe? My own thinking is we will get a blocking over Europe but it would cause extreme cold, not too much snow just extreme cold (-10 to -15ish frost) for long periods.

Artane2002

GeneHunt wrote: »

Could we (here in the British Isles) be lucky enough to get a mild winter (2018/2019), if there's a blocking over Europe? My own thinking is we will get a blocking over Europe but it would cause extreme cold, not too much snow just extreme cold (-10 to -15ish frost) for long periods.

Depends on where exactly in Europe the blocking is. If it's over Scandinavia then that would generally result in cold weather. If it's over Central Europe it would bring us mild southerlies. If it's over France/Spain then we would get mild, often wet weather.

sryanbruen

Siberian snow cover still very slowly advancing, among the lowest in the record (back to 1998) for this point in time.



Meanwhile, on the other side, this was North Dakota, US on 10th October with farmers harvesting wheat......

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1051047444325257216

Gaoth Laidir

Whatever the long-term trend, it's good to see that the most recent 12 years of annual minimum Arctic sea ice extent have shown a flattening or even a very slight upward trend of ~0.1% per year.

Artane2002

Some nice advances west over the weekend!

sryanbruen

Siberian snow cover has significantly increased in the past few days. Scandinavia too.

Artane2002

sryanbruen wrote: »

Siberian snow cover has significantly increased in the past few days. Scandinavia too.

I think the slow start may have been a good thing. The rate of increase is the thing that matters the most, not the extent of snow cover. Hopefully the rate of increase is sufficient for a negative AO. The charts are showing the main part of the PV over Siberia so that should help.

Artane2002

Artane2002 wrote: »

I think the slow start may have been a good thing. The rate of increase is the thing that matters the most, not the extent of snow cover. Hopefully the rate of increase is sufficient for a negative AO. The charts are showing the main part of the PV over Siberia so that should help.

The sea ice is also looking supportive of a -AO and Scandi blocking. I'm going to guess that this winter will have a negative AO and a near neutral NAO, with some spells of -NAO while also some +NAO periods.

sryanbruen

Not a bad finish.



https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1058049690703421440

q85dw7osi4lebg

Any update to this snow cover? Or a link to the snow cover map ?

Please

Artane2002

Amaris Gentle Prize wrote: »

Any update to this snow cover? Or a link to the snow cover map ?

Please

I might upload later because I'm busy at the moment but we finished in a favourable position for a cold winter.

konman

Amaris Gentle Prize wrote: »

Any update to this snow cover? Or a link to the snow cover map ?

Please

link is on page 1, post 5 of this thread.

sryanbruen

The Eurasian snow cover extent for October 2018 was slightly above average.

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1059809845589741570

North American snow cover is still going at record high levels whilst the snow cover is nothing amazing for Eurasia.