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Northern Hemisphere Snow/Ice Winter 2018/19

  • 04-09-2018 6:56am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 21,821 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Current situation

    cursnow.gif


    It's about to begin :cool:

    Snow cover in to a good chunk of central Siberia within the next 72 hours and central northern and western Canada within the next 120 hours as the first cold incursions occur.

    Keep an eye over the next couple of days...

    cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

    I'll keep the thread and imagery updated.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,848 ✭✭✭ Pa ElGrande


    Farmers’ Almanac Winter Outlook At A Glance: (For the continental US)
    27 Aug 2018

    • Colder-than-normal conditions are predicted from the Continental Divide east through the Appalachians.
    • Above-normal snowfall predicted for Great Lakes, Midwest, New England, Pacific Northwest
    • Frigid weather is expected in mid-February, which may also bring blustery and bitter winds, widespread snow showers, especially in zones 1, 2, and 3.
    • Winter will hang on with stormy conditions up through the official start of spring, especially for the East Coast.

    The Almanac also forecasts an unusually snowy and/or wet winter across the Pacific Northwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic States; in these regions, the thermometer will be hovering just above or just below the freezing mark, which means some of the precipitation may fall as either ice or rain/freezing rain.

    <snip>

    A Late Start to Spring?

    Mid-March could be stormy virtually coast to coast, bringing snow, sleet, and/or rain as well as strong and gusty winds to many areas. In particular, we are red-flagging March 20–23 for a potent East Coast storm that could deliver a wide variety of wintry precipitation just as we are making the transition from winter to spring. So, no matter what the groundhog says in February, you’ll know winter isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

    (Sounds like last spring, doesn’t it? Speaking of which, find out how the Farmers’ Almanac forecast fared last year.)


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,821 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Can boardsies see the images? Not working for me occasionally.


  • Registered Users Posts: 981 ✭✭✭ Lucreto


    Can boardsies see the images? Not working for me occasionally.

    I can't see them but I did when the thread just started.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,821 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Ok, thanks. Well, here are the links. These update automatically each day.

    https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif


    https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif


    Not much to write home about just yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,388 ✭✭✭✭ fritzelly


    Are you saying this will be the winter to beat all winters?
    Bring it on (but maybe a bit too early to be speculating, feck lets enjoy the last bits of summer first)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Mhmmmmm.....

    RcN69sd.gif

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,737 Missymoohaa


    sryanbruen wrote:
    Mhmmmmm.....

    OK Syran I give up what are we looking at here? The next ice age? Lol


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,821 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    There has been an increase in snow cover over parts of northern Siberia overnight. Nothing unusual so far but there will be rapid buildup between now and the end of the month as cold incursions become more frequent and start to pool.

    I'd like to see the start of a build back west of the snow pack toward Europe by the middle/end of October and into November and Scandanavia will have it's first snowfields by the end of the month which is standard.

    There should be snow into the northwest territories and Nunavut in Canada over the next few days too with the season's first real incursion there.

    tempresult_frs6.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    OK Syran I give up what are we looking at here? The next ice age? Lol

    Ice age.... no way :pac:. You're looking at snow cover gradually increasing over Siberia which will continue to do so during the Autumn and I expect it to be a fast season of snow cover extent into Eurasia via a strong Siberian High. I talk about these sorts of things in the Winter discussion thread if you'd like to see what it means for Winter.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Siberian snow cover as of yesterday. An increase from last week (but less snow cover than there was 2 days ago)
    cursnow_asiaeurope.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭ RebelButtMunch


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    Siberian snow cover as of yesterday. An increase from last week (but less snow cover than there was 2 days ago)
    cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

    What's the significance of that?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    What's the significance of that?

    In October, we like to see the snow cover expanding westwards. Winter is more likely to be cold if there is significant Siberian snow cover. I'm not sure if the snow itself has any significance but the westwards progress of the snow is supported by the Siberian High, a key player in winter. A strong Siberian High can bring cold conditions from the east here (although if it isn't aligned properly it could bring mild and wet weather)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    There has been a notable increase in snow in the extreme east of Russia as of yesterday. There's a slight decrease in the south of Siberia but nothing to lose sleep over. Post #11 has the image (the image updates itself everyday).

    This is less important for Ireland but since this is a NH snow/ice thread, there has been a massive increase in snow cover in the far northwest of Canada.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Slight increase in the snow cover in Siberia. Post #11 has the picture (for some reason the picture won't load on the touch site..).


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    Slight increase in the snow cover in Siberia. Post #11 has the picture (for some reason the picture won't load on the touch site..).

    The picture doesn't load for me either (PC). I usually save the pic and post it on an image hosting site like Imgur.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    This should be working now.

    Js9xcHD.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,202 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Arctic sea ice extent is nearing its annual minimum now. Currently the around the same as last year and up on 2016, 15 and 12.

    461525.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,848 ✭✭✭ Pa ElGrande


    Weather Warning Issued Across Iceland — High Winds and Heavy Snow Expected
    Meteorologists at the Iceland Met Office likened the expected snowfall to that in 2012, when a state of emergency was declared in the north of the country.

    At that time, the storm unfolded before Iceland’s famous sheep roundups had been completed, and many sheep died from being buried in the snow for days on end.

    All across the country, farmers have begun rounding up their sheep, gathering them in from the mountains to the north, where the most severe weather is expected during the next few days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,317 ✭✭✭ ZX7R


    I would expect to see a large increase in snow cover next week ,as the first artic outbreak is due to take place eastern Europe to feel the cold .
    To put in context 30c where my wife lives in Poland today next week day time temperature will be a max of 4c


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,821 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    First snow flurries of the season in Barrow, Alaska. It's the most northerly town in the United States. The sea there will be forming ice soon.

    http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam

    Looking healthy over the northern latitudes temperature wise for the time of year, colder than average generally at the moment.

    gfsnh-1-6.png?0


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,848 ✭✭✭ Pa ElGrande


    Snow is falling in Alberta, the biggest round is still ahead
    Friday, September 21, 2018, 11:33 AM - September snow records have already been broken in Alberta as rounds of snow put an end to the summer season. More shovel-able snow is forecast through Saturday with warnings to drivers for deteriorating road conditions. More on the snowfall amounts and timing, below

    source

    Alberta farmers fret over recent snowfalls that delayed harvest, damaged crops
    Some Alberta farmers are concerned about their crops after a late-summer snowfall blanketed parts of the province, with more flurries expected in the forecast.

    Early season snow can squash crops that grow upright, like wheat and barley, make them harder to harvest and decimate their quality, leaving farmers with a less valuable product.

    source


    Side effects of last Winter . . .


    Erie hospital sees ‘baby boom’ after last winter’s record-breaking snowfall


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    It seems when we get cold and snowy weather, places like Alberta often get milder weather. Let's hope this September snow is not a sign of things to come this winter!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    There has been a good build of snow over Eastern Siberia recently. I'll upload an image later when I get on my laptop.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    I think this should be noted.

    The snow cover over Norway on Saturday just gone is quite a lot for September 29th. Back to 1998, I could only find three close examples; 2012, 2010 and 2003.

    fQKfpoR.gif

    2003

    YcCTidJ.gif

    2010

    4lCs3rZ.gif

    2012

    fMaR6l5.gif

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,441 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Tabnabs


    Winter has arrived in the mountains of Norway.

    kamera?id=1608508

    kamera?id=2037148


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Less Siberian snow cover now than there has been on this day in previous years. The closest comparisons to this are 2011 (most similar) and 2012. 2009 is fairly similar but not really as close as the other two.

    I still think it's a bit early to worry about this though. 2009 had even less snow than this but we all know how the winter turned out. Must mention that there was a very rapid expansion of snow cover by Halloween 2009 which further proves the point that it's too early to be worrying for now.

    zu73PBk.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Big increase in snow over Northern Sweden/Finland. Some increases in Siberia too.

    aQ93wHP.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    Big increase in snow over Northern Sweden/Finland. Some increases in Siberia too.

    Whilst Siberian snow cover is lacking so far compared to previous years (especially 2017 for instance), Scandinavian snow cover continues to increase dramatically. In fact in the archive, I could not find as much snow cover over Scandinavia back to 1998 as 2018 on 5 October. Closest matches being 2003 and 2009. Notice 2003 and 2009 didn't have large extents of snow cover over Siberia either (especially 2009) on 5th October.

    ZW2PuHj.gif

    nVXesiY.gif

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Whilst Siberian snow cover is lacking so far compared to previous years (especially 2017 for instance), Scandinavian snow cover continues to increase dramatically. In fact in the archive, I could not find as much snow cover over Scandinavia back to 1998 as 2018 on 5 October. Closest matches being 2003 and 2009. Notice 2003 and 2009 didn't have large extents of snow cover over Siberia either (especially 2009) on 5th October.

    I would guess 2009 is going to be one of the years in the final analogues for winter. If that Eastern European High being shown by the models comes off, I'd expect lots more increase in snow over Siberia because of northerlies coming down there. The warm air being sucked up by that high would displace the cold to Siberia. Caveat is I'm no expert.

    Here is a chart to illustrate what I'm saying

    LXmirTH.png?1


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