Why the north outside EU changes everything for the island

riffmongous

Going to be a lot of 'community workers' losing their EU funding, wonder what they'll do in the aftermath

steddyeddy

riffmongous wrote: »

Going to be a lot of 'community workers' losing their EU funding, wonder what they'll do in the aftermath

Going to be a lot of farmers in the north loosing their subsidies. They'll look to their friends over the border with EU grants.

Grayson

steddyeddy wrote: »

Going to be a lot of farmers in the north loosing their subsidies. They'll look to their friends over the border with EU grants.

The norths economy will be fecked if there's a hard brexit. As far as westminister is concerned it's the least important part of the UK. It's something they have to deal with rather than something they want.

If there's a hard Brexit the UK will be the only country in the world that had no trading agreements.

Berserker

steddyeddy wrote: »

Going to be a lot of farmers in the north loosing their subsidies. They'll look to their friends over the border with EU grants.

No they won't. The food industry here is one of the most exposed sectors of the economy to Brexit. Ireland's agrifood sector is predicted to reduce by 10%-20% with a soft Brexit. A hard Brexit will be worse. That sector will be looking to the government and the EU for help. The IFA has been very open about it's Brexit concerns. Take a read of the Brexit impact report that Humphreys released earlier this year.

Peregrinus

Taytoland wrote: »

The detail was put to the Scottish people in 2014 and the Scottish Independence argument on the economy didn't stand up and it got destroyed in the poll. It wasn't even close. Leaving the EU will not change the fundamental issues on Scottish Independence and how they would be able to do it without implementing huge austerity measures and currency issues by leaving the pound. 

At the time I remember someone saying it would take years and years for any transforming from the Act of Union to Scottish Independence. Economically it's just not there. I think this talk of Scottish Independence is lalaland.

Except that Brexit does change the calculation materially. As Beserker points out, one of the arguments against Scottish independence back in 2014 was that it would take Scotland out of the EU, but of course the calculation there has changed completely; it's now the link with England that is taking Scotland out of the EU, while independence would open up the possibility of return.

As for the economic argument, the balance there has shifted also. Brexit does significant damage to the UK economy and to the pound sterling; the relative advantage to Scotland of the link is therefore damaged. And if there's a crash-out Brexit this will be true in spades.

Plus, of course, there's the political factor. Scottish devolution has already been materially diminished through the Brexit process. The Sewell Convention prevents the UK parliament from dealing with devolved matters without the consent of the devolved parliaments, but we now learn that the Sewell Convention doesn't apply to UK referendums, even advisory ones, or to legislation that the UK parliaments decides to enact in light of a referendum. Nobody in Westminster, or in the London media, has even noticed this, but you can be sure the Scots have.

So, much has changed since the Scottish independence referendum, and nearly all of it in a way which makes independence look more advantageous than it did in 2014, and the continued link with England more disadvantageous. I wouldn't be making any assumptions about the outcome of the next Indyref.

steddyeddy

Berserker wrote: »

No they won't. The food industry here is one of the most exposed sectors of the economy to Brexit. Ireland's agrifood sector is predicted to reduce by 10%-20% with a soft Brexit. A hard Brexit will be worse. That sector will be looking to the government and the EU for help. The IFA has been very open about it's Brexit concerns. Take a read of the Brexit impact report that Humphreys released earlier this year.

Are you saying that the farmers in the single market i.e Ireland, will be worse of than those in Northern Ireland?

NIMAN

steddyeddy wrote: »

Are you saying that the farmers in the single market i.e Ireland, will be worse of than those in Northern Ireland?

I'd guess that

- NI farmers sell their goods mainly to mainland UK and Ireland
- Irish farmers sell their goods mainly to NI and UK.

So if there is any obstacle put in place between Ireland and NI/UK then I'm guessing both sets of farmers are going to lose out. No?

riffmongous

NIMAN wrote: »

I'd guess that

- NI farmers sell their goods mainly to mainland UK and Ireland
- Irish farmers sell their goods mainly to NI and UK.

So if there is any obstacle put in place between Ireland and NI/UK then I'm guessing both sets of farmers are going to lose out. No?

NI farmers will also lose their EU payments though, and perhaps be in more competition thanks to the new trade agreements the UK will make with less developed economies

Taytoland

Peregrinus wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

The detail was put to the Scottish people in 2014 and the Scottish Independence argument on the economy didn't stand up and it got destroyed in the poll. It wasn't even close. Leaving the EU will not change the fundamental issues on Scottish Independence and how they would be able to do it without implementing huge austerity measures and currency issues by leaving the pound. 

At the time I remember someone saying it would take years and years for any transforming from the Act of Union to Scottish Independence. Economically it's just not there. I think this talk of Scottish Independence is lalaland.

Except that Brexit does change the calculation materially.  As Beserker points out, one of the arguments against Scottish independence back in 2014 was that it would take Scotland out of the EU, but of course the calculation there has changed completely; it's now the link with England that is taking Scotland out of the EU, while independence would open up the possibility of return.

As for the economic argument, the balance there has shifted also.  Brexit does significant damage to the UK economy and to the pound sterling; the relative advantage to Scotland of the link is therefore damaged.  And if there's a crash-out Brexit this will be true in spades.

Plus, of course, there's the political factor.  Scottish devolution has already been materially diminished through the Brexit process.  The Sewell Convention prevents the UK parliament from dealing with devolved matters without the consent of the devolved parliaments, but we now learn that the Sewell Convention doesn't apply to UK referendums, even advisory ones, or to legislation that the UK parliaments decides to enact in light of a referendum.  Nobody in Westminster, or in the London media, has even noticed this, but you can be sure the Scots have.

So, much has changed since the Scottish independence referendum, and nearly all of it in a way which makes independence look more advantageous than it did in 2014, and the continued link with England more disadvantageous.  I wouldn't be making any assumptions about the outcome of the next Indyref.

Scotland leaving the Union would also be leaving the EU. They have no guarantees they would get back in relatively soon whatsoever. They would also be changing from the pound to the Euro. In 2014 what they argued was for leaving the UK and keeping the pound but they would have in reality left the UK, lost the pound and also out of the EU. 

The idea that Scotland would be allowed to leave the UK and use the pound and still be in the EU is fantasy. It's why they got smashed in the referendum, they didn't have the arguments to persuade people, they still wouldn't win another referendum. The Scottish people had a choice and if you are from a Independence point of view you would just say they "shat it". 

One of the key foundations of the Scottish Independence movement in 2014 was North sea oil. What they didn't tell you is it is rapidly disappearing. By 2030s -2050s it will be finished. They put a lot of emphasis on something which in a few generations time won't matter a jot as it will be gone.

steddyeddy

32% of companies in Northern Ireland believe that Brexit is having a negative effect on business.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45034012

NIMAN

steddyeddy wrote: »

32% of companies in Northern Ireland believe that Brexit is having a negative effect on business.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45034012

So 68% think it isn't having any effect?;)

Peregrinus

Taytoland wrote: »

Scotland leaving the Union would also be leaving the EU.

Scotland leaving the UK would already have left the EU. Leaving the UK would open up the possibility of rejoining the EU. And, while there's no guarantees, in the circumstances there would be a very favourable wind blowing from Brussels.

Taytoland wrote: »

They would also be changing from the pound to the Euro . . . The idea that Scotland would be allowed to leave the UK and use the pound and still be in the EU is fantasy.

I'm not sure that it is. How, exactly, would the UK stop an independent Scotland from linking its currency to sterling? Why, indeed, would they want to? True, adopting the euro is a requirement for joining the EU, but in the circumstances the EU might be surprisingly flexible about making an exception. There's a point to be made about the difference between accommodating a country that wants to leave, and a country that wants to join.

Besides, a link to sterling after a crash-out Brexit may not be all that great. If they did adopt the euro, what exactly would they be losing out on? Either way, they get a currency over which they have little control. Given that, why choose sterling?

steddyeddy

NIMAN wrote: »

So 68% think it isn't having any effect?;)

I know right. Try explaining that to Brexiters though. If 32% of all business in a country are having a down turn it's not a good thing. I think Brexiter's idea of economics is that a country is doing great unless 100% of companies are having a down turn. Even then it's fingers in the ears and rule Brittania all the way.

NIMAN

I think most Brexiters think they still have an empire.

blinding

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

A hard brexit means it's inevitable Scotland will quit the UK within a couple of years, leaving NI even more isolated.

Then the Tory right will start questioning why they are spending £10bn a year on "ungrateful Paddies".

Unionists might even fancy the idea of a union with Scotland, back inside the EU...

One Third of SNP Voters voted for Brexit . A big spanner in the Works for Scottish Independence .

steddyeddy

NIMAN wrote: »

I think most Brexiters think they still have an empire.

Well the vote came about as a result of nationalistic falsehoods about the country's ability to go it alone. A misplaced sense of superiority was involved. We shouldn't forget though that the majority of voters in Northern Ireland voted to remain.

blinding

NIMAN wrote: »

I think most Brexiters think they still have an empire.

They still have the 6 Counties for now .

steddyeddy

blinding wrote: »

One Third of SNP Voters voted for Brexit . A big spanner in the Works for Scottish Independence .

And a lot of former Scottish unionists voted against it. When Scotland is pulled out against its will then it won't be a case of in the UK or out, it will be a case of do you want to be in the EU or not?

Atlantic Dawn

blinding wrote: »

They still have the 6 Counties for now .

The passport controls at the border will be pure entertainment gold.

blinding

steddyeddy wrote: »

And a lot of former Scottish unionists voted against it. When Scotland is pulled out against its will then it won't be a case of in the UK or out, it will be a case of do you want to be in the EU or not?

If all or most of the Oil and Gas was not gone then I think the Scots would have gone but unless they find a heap of something like that I don’t think they have the confidence to go it alone . The Eu didn’t exactly go out on a limb for Catalonia ; Ok , Spain and Catalonia are in the Eu so there was the upsetting of the Spanish applecart ( in the Eu) to consider .

blinding

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

The passport controls at the border will be pure entertainment gold.

The South East of Englanders ( the money suppliers ) will get out of Dodge if it even looks like getting messy ; Wouldn’t You ?

steddyeddy

blinding wrote: »

If all or most of the Oil and Gas was not gone then I think the Scots would have gone but unless they find a heap of something like that I don’t think they have the confidence to go it alone . The Eu didn’t exactly go out on a limb for Catalonia ; Ok , Spain and Catalonia are in the Eu so there was the upsetting of the Spanish applecart ( in the Eu) to consider .

But what will the UK have out of the single market?

blinding

steddyeddy wrote: »

But what will the UK have out of the single market?

We will have to wait perhaps 3 years to see what is going to happen especially if the Brits leave without a deal . I’d say this is very unlikely especially if the Eu has Ireland’s interests at heart .

Folkstonian

steddyeddy wrote: »

NIMAN wrote: »

I think most Brexiters think they still have an empire.

Well the vote came about as a result of nationalistic falsehoods about the country's ability to go it alone. A misplaced sense of superiority was involved. We shouldn't forget though that the majority of voters in Northern Ireland voted to remain.

I voted to remain and a Brexit of any kind that involves leaving the single market may present a bit of difficulty for me in my job, but in the interest of balance I’m not sure I heard many people cite the argument that Britain was inherently better than this country or any other.

It was more that, rightly or wrongly, they didn’t think the EU was working for them and wanted to go in a different direction to people in other European countries vis a vis closer political union, neoliberal economic policy etc

Maybe it’s just me but it comes across as a disingenuous sneer when you agree with posters who say Brits believe they are still an imperial power. I don’t think anyone fails to recognise that the age of European empires has ended.

For what it’s worth, in theory it was probably very possible for Britain (or anyone) to go it alone outside the EU. It was in practice with the conservatives at the helm that the wheels fell off.

The knee jerk declaration of Article 50 of Lisbon without any level of analysis and planning is what is unforgivable to me, not the ambition to leave the EU in itself.

I’m not sure where it goes from here. I don’t have any particular passion for politics normally and nor do most people I know and associate with, but I don’t get the feeling that there is a particular appetite for a re-run of the referendum. I’m desensitised and largely apathetic, as, probably, are most people in the part of England I’m from originally!

Taytoland

Peregrinus wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

Scotland leaving the Union would also be leaving the EU.

Scotland leaving the UK would already have left the EU.  Leaving the UK would open up the possibility of rejoining the EU. And, while there's no guarantees, in the circumstances there would be a very favourable wind blowing from Brussels.  

Taytoland wrote: »

They would also be changing from the pound to the Euro . . . The idea that Scotland would be allowed to leave the UK and use the pound and still be in the EU is fantasy.

I'm not sure that it is.  How, exactly, would the UK stop an independent Scotland from linking its currency to sterling?  Why, indeed, would they want to?  True, adopting the euro is a requirement for joining the EU, but in the circumstances the EU might be surprisingly flexible about making an exception.  There's a point to be made about the difference between accommodating a country that wants to leave, and a country that wants to join.

Besides, a link to sterling after a crash-out Brexit may not be all that great.  If they did adopt the euro, what exactly would they be losing out on?  Either way, they get a currency over which they have little control.  Given that, why choose sterling?

The EU is notoriously inflexible. They have clear lines on many issues and rarely if ever budge on them. So absolutely no guarantees on Scotland joining the EU.

bear1

What I'm curious about is that the north gets What, 10 billion a year to stay afloat?
How much does the UK in general receive from the eu?
Once they leave I'm struggling to see how they will manage to keep pumping that kind of money into the place without causing serious upset with their books.

blinding

bear1 wrote: »

What I'm curious about is that the north gets What, 10 billion a year to stay afloat?
How much does the UK in general receive from the eu?
Once they leave I'm struggling to see how they will manage to keep pumping that kind of money into the place without causing serious upset with their books.

The Uk has always given more money to the Eu than it receives . There never has been any Eu money spent in the UK . In any case the Eu has absolutely no Money .

Taytoland

blinding wrote: »

bear1 wrote: »

What I'm curious about is that the north gets What, 10 billion a year to stay afloat?
How much does the UK in general receive from the eu?
Once they leave I'm struggling to see how they will manage to keep pumping that kind of money into the place without causing serious upset with their books.

The Uk has always given more money to the Eu than it receives . There never has been any Eu money spent in the UK . In any case the Eu has absolutely no Money .

The EU "money" is British money. It's British tax payers pumping money into it.

blinding

Taytoland wrote: »

The EU "money" is British money. It's British tax payers pumping money into it.

Agreed . The Eu has absolutely no Money . Where would it get its own Money .

Junkyard Tom

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Unionists might even fancy the idea of a union with Scotland, back inside the EU...

Strabanimal wrote: »

You overrated the Scottish-NI unionist relationship.

Unionists are a minority with no veto to prevent a United Ireland and no mandate for union with Scotland. There's nothing unionists can do to reverse a pro-UI vote and they know it.