Galway Plate Max Value

longshotvalue

Galway Plate

Lord Scoundrel is a bet in waiting for me for a long time now. He was one of my main hopes for Cheltenham but then didn’t run. He caught my eye behind Bellshill at Fairyhouse, and then clearly didn’t stay in the silly ground at the Irish National. He arrives here to the scene of his biggest win in this race 2 years ago, on a 1 pound lower mark. What really sticks out though is his run last year in what looks much better race. He was getting ready to challenge but got almost brought down at the second last and ended up finishing 8th, behind a couple of Grade 1 horses, after he ran wide all the way and was on a 12lbs higher mark. I don’t really see anything in this race that could end up winning grade 1s on a decent mark (Saturnes, Sub Lieutenant & Don’t Touch It seem the dangers). He has had a break and then a nice looking run over hurdles lately, surely with this race in mind. To my eye he looks one of the more likely winners, and I think he will go off about 12/1. 33/1 Ante Post is of course risky but he is surly going to go here with his history in the race.

3 Points EW 33/1 Generally

@33-1

Followed you on this.

Hes still 33-1. I was on at 33-1 antepost with 4 places. I just cashed out and backed it again @ 33-1 but 5 places 1/4 odds with 365 (also without risk of antepost).

Sky are 6 places 1/5 odds @33-1

carq

Better to get 4 places 1/4 odds or 5 places 1/5 odds ?

longshotvalue

TheTorment wrote: »

Followed you on this.

Hes still 33-1. I was on at 33-1 antepost with 4 places. I just cashed out and backed it again @ 33-1 but 5 places 1/4 odds with 365 (also without risk of antepost).

Sky are 6 places 1/5 odds @33-1

I'll be going in again with 365. I didn't go totally mad antepost .

Bitconfused

Was it 4 places with powers antepost? They are paying out 5 now. Does this not change if you took it antepost?

kiers47

Bitconfused wrote: »

Was it 4 places with powers antepost? They are paying out 5 now. Does this not change if you took it antepost?

Antepost would have been 4 places with everyone id imagine. No antepost bets you get exactly the terms you bet at regardless of the amount of runners that show up. No rule 4's the same place terms etc...

You could check in the off chance your horse came 5th. Sometimes the traders settle them incorrectly.
But with PP in particular if you are in the first 4 ensure you get 1/4 odds and not 1/5 that PP give when they enhance the places.

Cherry_Cola

40s on Paddy now.

00benski

Would you go back in at 40s Aidan and why the big drift? Can't see it coming down to 16s even. What's your thoughts boss.

longshotvalue

00benski wrote: »

Would you go back in at 40s Aidan and why the big drift? Can't see it coming down to 16s even. What's your thoughts boss.

I wouldn't worry at all if there isn't a penny for it in this race . He's no 40/1 shot. I'll probably top but I'm not a big punter . The drift is because of jockey booking and all the letters in his form . If he is on form he has all positives .

sdoc13

The more I look at the race the more I come back to lord scoundrel. The 40s with 5 places is insane value. Best value bet I have seen in quite a while

00benski

aidankkk wrote: »

00benski wrote: »

Would you go back in at 40s Aidan and why the big drift? Can't see it coming down to 16s even. What's your thoughts boss.

I wouldn't worry at all if there isn't a penny for it in this race . He's no 40/1 shot. I'll probably top but I'm not a big punter . The drift is because of jockey booking and all the letters in his form . If he is on form he has all positives .

Thank you for the answer. I was actually just being curious as I don't bet much myself but always follow your tips with a few euro as I find it Interesting. Hopefully he does the business tomorrow either way.

djPSB

From Gordon Elliotts preview article:

'Lord Scoundrel won this race back in 2016. He hasn't won since but he is back to his lowest mark (144) since he won here and a run over hurdles at Down Royal a few weeks ago should have done his confidence plenty of good. He was running well in this race last year only to be hampered at the final fence so hopefully a return to Galway will bring out the best in him again. Also he would have run very well behind Bellshill in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse in February only to unseat at the final fence. Like Clarcam he is a big price but I wouldn't be shocked to see him go well.'

Earendil

djPSB wrote: »

From Gordon Elliotts preview article:

'Lord Scoundrel won this race back in 2016. He hasn't won since but he is back to his lowest mark (144) since he won here and a run over hurdles at Down Royal a few weeks ago should have done his confidence plenty of good. He was running well in this race last year only to be hampered at the final fence so hopefully a return to Galway will bring out the best in him again. Also he would have run very well behind Bellshill in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse in February only to unseat at the final fence. Like Clarcam he is a big price but I wouldn't be shocked to see him go well.'

He'll do for me. 50s with Sky paying 6 places.

akelly02

Anyone know how the rain will affect Lord Scoundrels chances?

longshotvalue

akelly02 wrote: »

Anyone know how the rain will affect Lord Scoundrels chances?

Ran well here on good ground , but has good form on soft as well, and if anything it will slow down a few of the favs i think. Neither a plus or negative i think. He will stay for sure.

akelly02

good man thanks.

40s looks serious value so

Cherry_Cola

Went 250 e/w on this so needless to say I'll owe you a few pints if all goes well Aidan

Massimo Tara

I think we're all on the same train here!

lab man

Is that 2.50 or e250

Bitconfused

Does best price not go for antepost? Got it at 33s. if it starts at 40s will I get paid for 33s if there is a return?

Cherry_Cola

lab man wrote: »

Is that 2.50 or e250

€250.

akelly02

Cherry_Cola wrote: »

€250.

wow ill be cheering him on even more now

lab man

Cherry_Cola wrote:

€250.

Christ great to have money

Earendil

Bitconfused wrote: »

Does best price not go for antepost? Got it at 33s. if it starts at 40s will I get paid for 33s if there is a return?

It won't though....95% of the time there is a contraction of the market in the final few minutes before the race. Even more so in Irish racing I find. I'd be surprised if he doesn't go off 25s or less.

carq

On this too at 33’s and topped up at 40’s each way 5 places.

Hopefully does the business, seems like this race is jam packed of horses i have backed in the past (peregrine run one i have not seen in a while!)

sham69

A few quid e/w at 33s , only 4 places as I am with quinnbet
Best of luck all!!

sdoc13

Have doubled ew lord scoundrel with plinth at 40s on the hurdle. Think he is over priced as well.

akelly02

sdoc13 wrote: »

Have doubled ew lord scoundrel with plinth at 40s on the hurdle. Think he is over priced as well.

I think plinth is a hound but best of luck all the same

sdoc13

akelly02 wrote:

I think plinth is a hound but best of luck all the same

He is but the sun shines on a dogs h#le every once n a while. 😂
Think it's over priced a tad and think the place terms decent with the extra place on both races

Joe_ Public

Cant not back Slowmotion here. Think it has an outstanding chance, Joseph has always thought so highly of this horse. Neverushacon for a bit of ew.

JustJoe7240

Earendil wrote: »

He'll do for me. 50s with Sky paying 6 places.

Congrats!!

stretchaq

Earendil wrote: »

He'll do for me. 50s with Sky paying 6 places.

Nice

Earendil

Earendil wrote: »

He'll do for me. 50s with Sky paying 6 places.

Well done you!!!

meath4sam

Was he not 7th??

shaneward2004

He was 7th

kippy

Earendil wrote: »

He'll do for me. 50s with Sky paying 6 places.

Great work! However you managed it!

kippy

meath4sam wrote: »

Was he not 7th??

shaneward2004 wrote: »

He was 7th

The poster had bolded Clarcam in the previous post suggesting he had gone for Clarcam!
A great bit of work! Would love to hear the logic, if any.

Earendil

Thanks lads.

CH3OH

Earendil wrote: »

Thanks lads.

Well done . Nice to see someone get a winner.

Looking at the finish, there didn't seem to be many in the grandstand on the winner-they all looked stunned

akelly02

Lord scoundrel ran well lads , boxing on for 7th

i felt he had a much better position had he let them go the first time , might have snuck into the top 5