Antepost football betting 2018/19

callaway92

jobeenfitz wrote: »

Hi all? Most of my bets nowadays are EPL. I want to keep a few spreadsheets of info this season with general info and my own observations. Just wondering is there a best source for certain info, like player ratings ?

Any pointers on best type of bets and/or best info to record?? I'm just looking for ideas from any willing posters. Want to take as much off the bookie as possible, if I don't succeed then I'd like to keep losses to a minimum.
Thanks.

WhoScored is prob the best for this because it's statistic based and not naked-eye based like a newspaper every week etc.

jobeenfitz

Thank you Callaway, I'll check that out.

Trimm Trabb

Mane, Firmino, Alli, Lacazette, Ramsey to score 8+ premier league goals 14/1 (BV)

Liverpool to finish top 2, Newcastle bottom half, Huddersfield relegated 8/1 (W Hill)

Mane to score 10+ league goals 4/5 (BV) - has done it 4 seasons in a row and could be on penalties this year too

Trimm Trabb

Trimm Trabb wrote: »

Mane, Firmino, Alli, Lacazette, Ramsey to score 8+ premier league goals 14/1 (BV)

Just to give a bit more detail on this one:

Mane's scored 10, 13, 11, 11 in last 4 seasons - he has had injuries in last 2 seasons which means he has a good goals to games ratio but is susceptible to missing parts of the season.

Firmino scored 15, 11, 10 in his 3 seasons in England wit last season his best year.

Alli got 10, 18 and 9 in his 3 years at Spurs. I'd expect him to leep up similar form but after Ramsey he'd be my biggest doubt.

Lacazette was very prolific in France and got 14 league goals last season for Arsenal.

Ramsey is the big risk - his goal record over the last 5 seasons reads 7,1,6,5,10. Obviously has missed large chunks due to injury but played quite a bit last year and Emery is said to want to give him a more central role this season. I think if he can play as many minutes as he did last season he has a pretty decent chance of 8 goals..

I'm quite confident in the other 4 if they are fit but I suppose with 5 players there is every chance someone gets injured and misses a lot of games but have to say I think the odds of 14/1 are pretty decent.

Loafing Oaf

Trimm Trabb wrote: »

Mane to score 10+ league goals 4/5 (BV) - has done it 4 seasons in a row and could be on penalties this year too

I'm thinking of backing him @ 8/1 to be Liverpool top scorer, would love to know for sure he will be taking pens...

Trimm Trabb

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I'm thinking of backing him @ 8/1 to be Liverpool top scorer, would love to know for sure he will be taking pens...

Yeah when originally heard he might be on pens I thought he might have a 20 goal season - but Liverpool only got 3 pens last year. 5 seems about the norm for top team while Palace got 9 last year.

Personally think Salah will score 30+ goals again as long as he’s fit.

spurshero

Trimm Trabb wrote: »

Mane, Firmino, Alli, Lacazette, Ramsey to score 8+ premier league goals 14/1 (BV)

Liverpool to finish top 2, Newcastle bottom half, Huddersfield relegated 8/1 (W Hill)

Mane to score 10+ league goals 4/5 (BV) - has done it 4 seasons in a row and could be on penalties this year too

Think the 8 to 1 bet has a great chance . I expect Liverpool to be second at worst . First 8 spots or so are gone in league so Newcastle basically need to come top 2 in what I would call the 12 teams in danger of going down . And Huddersfield could well suffer second season syndrome and struggle big time

Gavin "shels"

West Ham Top Half
Middlesborough Top 6
Portsmouth Top 6
MK Dons Top 7
Salford Promotion
Juve Champions
Atletico Madrid Top 4
Celtic Champions
56/1 on Bet365.... any opinions?

Loafing Oaf

Gavin shels wrote: »

West Ham Top Half
Middlesborough Top 6
Portsmouth Top 6
MK Dons Top 7
Salford Promotion
Juve Champions
Atletico Madrid Top 4
Celtic Champions
56/1 on Bet365.... any opinions?

Most of it looks pretty bulletproof to me, might 'borrow' a chunk of it for my acca.:P West Ham possibly the weakest link?

yabadabado

Atletico top 4 ,1/5 Is it ?
I'd probably go winner without Barca/Real at 2/5.They have bought extremely well and are a really settled club.
I think they will push both teams all the way and may win the league, have a few quid on them to win at 10s.

Gavin "shels"

yabadabado wrote: »

Atletico top 4 ,1/5 Is it ?
I'd probably go winner without Barca/Real at 2/5.They have bought extremely well and are a really settled club.
I think they will push both teams all the way and may win the league, have a few quid on them to win at 10s.

Much better shout - will swap out for your idea.

I was getting 1/8 on Bet365, 3/10 with you idea. Cheers.

Up to 65/1 now.

Gavin "shels"

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

West Ham possibly the weakest link?

Manuel Pellegrini should have them top 10 imo

ShamoBuc

My guesses for interest ...

West Ham top half
Boro top 6
Portsmouth top 6
Juve winner
Rangers-without Celtic
MK Dons top 7
Bayern winner
Lyon top 3
Huesca to be relegated.

At 99/1 on bet365

Added Salford to win for 400/1

Loafing Oaf

ShamoBuc wrote: »

My guesses for interest ...

West Ham top half
Boro top 6
Portsmouth top 6
Juve winner
Rangers-without Celtic
MK Dons top 7
Bayern winner
Lyon top 3
Huesca to be relegated.

At 99/1 on bet365

Added Salford to win for 400/1

My big acca, slightly less ambitious
1 Everton
England Premier League 2018/19
(To Finish in Top Half)
19/05/2019 None
4/11
To Run
2 Stoke
England Championship 2018/19
(To Finish in Top 6)
05/05/2019 None
4/7
To Run
3 Portsmouth
England League 1 2018/19
(To Finish in Top 6)
04/05/2019 None
11/8
To Run
4 Notts County
England League 2 2018/19
(To Finish in Top 7)
04/05/2019 None
4/6
To Run
5 Juventus
Italy Serie A 2018/19
(To Win Outright)
26/05/2019 None
2/5
To Run
6 Atletico Madrid
Spain Primera Liga 2018/19 Without Barcelona & Real Madrid
(To Win Outright)
18/05/2019 None
3/10
To Run
7 Borussia Dortmund
Germany Bundesliga I 2018/19 Without Bayern Munich
(To Win Outright)
18/05/2019 None
5/6
To Run
8 PSG
France Ligue 1 2018/19
(To Win Outright)
10/05/2019 None
1/10
To Run
Multiples
Bet Type No.of Bets Unit Stake Total Stake To Return Return
8 Folds 1 10.00 10.00 311.32 Not Available

Other season bets:

1. Man City 2. Liverpool
1. City. 2. Man United. 3. Liverpool

City win the title, Cardiff and Huddersfield relegated

Relegation trebles:
Cardiff, Newcastle & Watford
Bournemouth, Brighton & Huddersfield

Double: Southampton relegated. West Ham top half

Burnley bottom at Christmas

Vardy top scorer e/w (good start there:)

Doubles on Liverpool title, Salah and Firmino top scorer

Mane top Liverpool scorer

Top team scorer acca: Alireza Jahanbakhsh, Aleksandar Mitrovic, Cenk Tosun.
Marko Arnautovic

POTY: KDB, Van Dijk, Jorginho
YPOTY: Sane, Sessegnon

Garcia first manager to leave

Might leave it there:P

Gavin "shels"

Salford off to a great start...

Gavin "shels"

Gavin shels wrote: »

West Ham Top Half
Middlesborough Top 6
Portsmouth Top 6
MK Dons Top 7
Salford Promotion
Juve Champions
Atletico Madrid Top 4
Celtic Champions
56/1 on Bet365.... any opinions?

Atletico W/O Madrid/Barca brought this up to 65/1 as per my previous post.

All going OK bar West Ham and Atletico - early doors yet but hopefully get a run for my money!

magherakid

Rangers 6/1 to win league outright

Loafing Oaf

Gavin shels wrote: »

Manuel Pellegrini should have them top 10 imo

Still standing by this?:P

Same man is apparently 12/1 with PP for the sack race. If I had an account with them I'd say I'd be lumping right now...

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Still standing by this?:P

Same man is apparently 12/1 with PP for the sack race. If I had an account with them I'd say I'd be lumping right now...

5/1 now. I wonder would you actually have got it at 12/1?

splashuum

splashuum wrote: »

Ched Evans top league one goalscorer @ 28/1

Ched sitting tight with 5 in his last 5

Gavin "shels"

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Still standing by this?:P

Nope :pac: but hindsight is a wonderful thing

Loafing Oaf

My Nations League group winners acca: Scotland, Belgium, Serbia, Macedonia, Belarus, Georgia.
Can't bear a whole weekend of sport without any financial interest.:p

Loafing Oaf

Anyone doing anything with the Champions League (or Europa)?

You'd think the CL top scorer field might be more open this year, looking at Lewandowski or Bale, but I've a sinking feeling it'll be CR7 or Leo again...

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Well I've signed up with Sky Bet (to give them their proper name) to back another Jose special: to be the first to lose his job and United to finish outside the top 4 @ 12/1.

Have just stuck a few bob on Benitez (also @ 12s) for the sack race in case the Mourinho frenzy turns out to be unfounded. If anyone else was managing Necastle I'd say he'd be gone already, or half out the door. Don't see any other sacking as any way imminent...

mailburner

been thinking about backing derby for the past two weeks since they hammered west brom away and almost beat boro
they were 10/1 before todays match, went behind and came back to win by two


they are now 15/2

I really fancy them

sheff utd will fall away, wouldn't back boro with stolen money, fancy leeds will fall away also...not sure bout norwich tbh
there's only 7pts between top and tenth also and every week or two a different team is top

villa at home is next for them and that price of 11/10 at home to a team in dire form away from home looks good to me


anyone have any thoughts or about any other team in any other league so maybe we could get rich together

Trimm Trabb

Trimm Trabb wrote: »

Mane, Firmino, Alli, Lacazette, Ramsey to score 8+ premier league goals 14/1 (BV)

Liverpool to finish top 2, Newcastle bottom half, Huddersfield relegated 8/1 (W Hill)

Mane to score 10+ league goals 4/5 (BV) - has done it 4 seasons in a row and could be on penalties this year too

Little update on these:

Mane - 6 goals
Lacazette- 5 goals
Firmino - 2 goals
Alli - 1 goal
Ramsey - 1 goal

First 2 almost there and would still expect Firmino and Alli to hit purple patches and get near double figures. Ramsey’s contract issue and subsequent loss of his starting place has pretty much killed this one though which is annoying as he started the season in a really central high role and was looking very dangerous.

Second bet is looking on course with Liverpool 2nd, Newcastle 14th and 8 points off top 10 and Huddersfield 19th. Liverpool and Huddersfield will be touch and go for those positions all season I would imagine.

Mane to score 10+ is looking very safe unless he get injured so only regret is not getting on heavier than I did - that said you never know with injuries etc

Loafing Oaf

Just put a fiver on wolves to go down @ 50/1. Come the end of the season this post will make me look like either a visionary or a tool...

eh i dunno

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Just put a fiver on wolves to go down @ 50/1. Come the end of the season this post will make me look like either a visionary or a tool...

Was thinking the same last night watching them. Very ordinary team with a lot of championship players

Gavin "shels"

Gavin shels wrote: »

West Ham Top Half
Middlesborough Top 6
Portsmouth Top 6
MK Dons Top 7
Salford Promotion
Juve Champions
Atletico Madrid Top 4
Celtic Champions
56/1 on Bet365.... any opinions?

Bet as of one of the previous pages ended up being:
West Ham Top Half
Middlesborough Top 6
Portsmouth Top 6
MK Dons Top 7
Salford Promotion
Juve Champions
Atletico W/O Madrid/Barca
Celtic Champions
65/1

Odds down to around single figures now! West Ham the cause for concern...

Loafing Oaf

eh i dunno wrote: »

Was thinking the same last night watching them. Very ordinary team with a lot of championship players

It was their not liking it up em that struck me. Guys like Jota evidently can't do it on a wet Friday night in Cardiff.:P