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Absolute Drought conditions to end by Sunday, remaining warm, mostly dry

  • 10-07-2018 11:32pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 21,809 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    So we are on the cusp of an interruption to the very warm or hot and dry cactus growing conditions that have prevailed for the last few weeks at least for a few days.

    Many places won't see absolute drought conditions end until the second half of the weekend (some tomorrow) when a band of persistent, allbeit, light to moderate rain moves across the country from the Atlantic.

    While technically the absolute drought will end, though welcome, there is unlikely to be any significant rainfall and certainly not enough to remotely replenish lost resources either in the soil or in reservoirs and rivers.

    The soil moisture deficits in the east and southeast are approaching nearly 100mm at this stage. That is a lot to make up and we certainly won't be making much inroads there.


    Between now and Sunday:

    Wednesday:

    Patchy light to moderate rainfall in the north and east, mainly dry elsewhere, some showers further south. Warm, top temperatures 22 - 23c in the south where there will be pleasant sunshine. 16 - 19c elsewhere, coolest on coasts.

    Thursday:

    Mainly dry, isolated patchy rain and drizzle. Some sunshine. Top temperatures 22 - 24c.

    Friday:

    Dry day. Warm and mostly sunny. 22 - 24c max temperatures. Warmest in the east and south. 17 - 20c elsewhere.

    Saturday:

    Warm or very warm. Dry. Top temperatures in the south and east. 22 - 25c.

    Rainfall extent

    Still it's uncertain the actual extent of rainfall over the weekend. Right now it looks light or moderate intensity but patchy (widespread and more persistent for Sunday). Most models would appear to indicate 5 - 15 mm for most over the next 10 days which is small amounts.

    Some signs too that things will settle down again for the following week.

    Still good by the standards of your average Irish summer and the temperatures remaining good.


    Possible warnings/hazards:

    Drought conditions, Level: Yellow


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Comments

  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,246 ✭✭✭ judeboy101


    Praying for snow at this stage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,343 ✭✭✭ Speak Now


    Sounds like a continuation of great summer weather in the south and east :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,511 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Already in progress since last evening here in West Mayo, offshore island. A good shower then, and drizzle and mist now starting the healing . Lovely to feel the
    softness of rain. Happy!

    But really .. a drop in the ocean to what is desperately needed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,317 ✭✭✭✭ lawred2


    Sounds fairly benign to me. Was expecting a cataclysmic breakdown with a full reversal to persistent rain and 15 degrees..

    With flash flooding obviously as the land is near impermeable at this stage..


  • Registered Users Posts: 540 ✭✭✭ sunnyday1234


    Met eireanns most recent forecast has almost zero rain for at least another week

    I can’t see us getting anything in the south


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,837 Edward M


    There's a light soft mizzle falling here in south Cavan this morning, it feels warm as its falling.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,511 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Edward M wrote: »
    There's a light soft mizzle falling here in south Cavan this morning, it feels warm as its falling.

    Delicious! ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    0.9mm of rain here in 24hrs

    7mm a day for 14 days is needed to end the drought

    In 2007 this was no bother but now if we get 10mm even for a day it seems to be dry for a month after

    Also Atlantic very quiet so any breakdowns are only going to bring cool drizzle


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    Needless thread, a few bits of the country where it's always raining might get some rain, the rest of us will carry on regardless :p


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,709 Cantona's Collars


    Needless thread, a few bits of the country where it's always raining might get some rain, the rest of us will carry on regardless :p

    I posted a picture yesterday looking across from Hook Head towards Waterford,it could have been taken in any Mediterranean country. The fields in the distance burnt yellow and a beautiful blue sea in between with crystal clear water lapping up around the coast.
    I've travelled before from clear skies and heat to the West of Ireland into gloom,mist and rain.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    Brave call with that thread title! I would be so sure of rainfall in all areas by Sunday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,709 Cantona's Collars


    Villain wrote: »
    Brave call with that thread title! I would be so sure of rainfall in all areas by Sunday.

    The title never specified which Sunday. ;)

    Bets being hedged methinks. :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭ Franz Von Peppercorn


    Drizzle or low intensity rain might be what is needed now to all some growth to happen.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,629 ✭✭✭ Elmer Blooker


    Headline: Mostly dry and warm. Some weak weather fronts will affect the country at times over the period, but amounts of rain will be small, so the drought conditions will persist.
    Some light rain in the north and west, nothing elsewhere.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 14,138 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Zzippy


    Level 1 Weather Alert? Really?


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    Zzippy wrote: »
    Level 1 Weather Alert? Really?

    Yep as per
    Status Yellow - Weather Advisory for Ireland

    Update to drought advisory:

    There will be some alleviation in drought conditions in places this week. However there will be little initial reduction in soil moisture deficits as evapotranspiration rates will remain high.

    Next update Friday 13-07-2018.

    Issued: Saturday 30 June 2018 18:00

    Updated: Monday 09 July 2018 14:00

    Valid from Monday 09 July 2018 14:00 to Friday 13 July 2018 12:00


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    LEVEL 1 NOT RAINING OR ANYTHING MUCH ELSE ALERT. One of the more pointless ones issued by Met Eireann


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    LEVEL 1 NOT RAINING OR ANYTHING MUCH ELSE ALERT. One of the more pointless ones issued by Met Eireann

    Not at all pointless if it helps people realise the water crisis that is coming down the line. The same people joking about rain coming will be the very people moaning about water shortages if they hit.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 14,138 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Zzippy


    Villain wrote: »
    Not at all pointless if it helps people realise the water crisis that is coming down the line. The same people joking about rain coming will be the very people moaning about water shortages if they hit.

    Well calling it a "Level 1... Absolute Drought To End" alert isn't going to persuade people of that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭ hinault


    Villain wrote: »
    Not at all pointless if it helps people realise the water crisis that is coming down the line. The same people joking about rain coming will be the very people moaning about water shortages if they hit.

    Not to mention the knock on adverse effect which will see food prices increase during autumn and winter 2018.

    While rain for it's own sake is essential, it is essential too for crops (spuds, grain etc) to grow and to be harvested.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    Villain wrote: »
    Not at all pointless if it helps people realise the water crisis that is coming down the line. The same people joking about rain coming will be the very people moaning about water shortages if they hit.
    Zzippy wrote: »
    Well calling it a "Level 1... Absolute Drought To End" alert isn't going to persuade people of that.

    QFT, they are fools for mentioning an end to drought even at the technical level. An own goal.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    ECMWF shows very little rainfall now for Eastern areas for next 7-10 days. Just hit and miss showers really.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,992 ✭✭✭ giveitholly


    Villain wrote: »
    ECMWF shows very little rainfall now for Eastern areas for next 7-10 days. Just hit and miss showers really.

    When you say Eastern areas Villain how far east do you think it will be for the showers that are hit and miss,how do you think south tipp will fair out


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,343 ✭✭✭ Speak Now


    When you say Eastern areas Villain how far east do you think it will be for the showers that are hit and miss,how do you think south tipp will fair out

    Very little for South Tipp, sunny south east.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,751 ✭✭✭ mirrorwall14


    North kildare, we got one "shower". I put it in inverted commas because my little lads paintings were all out drying on the grass, it was so light that they barely even got damp!


  • Registered Users Posts: 576 ✭✭✭ Jeju


    judeboy101 wrote:
    Praying for snow at this stage.

    Think I have some in the freezer, must set it free see what happens


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    North kildare, we got one "shower". I put it in inverted commas because my little lads paintings were all out drying on the grass, it was so light that they barely even got damp!

    So not even a light impressionist overlay?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,759 ✭✭✭ Calibos


    Drizzle in Bray at 11pm tonight. Nothing showing on Radar. Roads and paths getting a little damp


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Drizzle skirting the Atlantic too after a clear sunny evening here in Sligo. Tomorrow morning might be a bit wetter than this mornings meagre effort. Itl die out quick enough though.

    However I see the rainfall situation gradually improving in the coming weeks. But as has been said we need loads and there isnt loads coming just showery rain at best


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    A small little 'drizzle blizzard' passed over here yesterday afternoon. Drops were so fine that they barely dampened the ground, yet vis went down to less than 100m. The whole affair lasted about 5 mins.

    New Moon



This discussion has been closed.
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