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Would online bookies prevent "sure thing" bets?

  • 08-07-2018 11:58am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,571 ✭✭✭✭ mrcheez


    Say I lost €10, but I wanted to get it back gradually by betting on lots of small odd "sure things" with €50 (like say a football match score is 2-0 with 2 minutes left, and I bet that the team with 2 goals win) and I get back €2 or something on a €50 bet.

    Would online bookies eventually step in if I kept on winning these small bets?


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,589 ✭✭✭✭ ShaneU


    You wouldn't get €2 back from that bet, 20 cent maybe.

    And to answer your question, they wouldn't care about €10, but if your betting pattern is staking hundreds on heavily odds on bets they would soon limit or close your account


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,571 ✭✭✭✭ mrcheez


    ShaneU wrote: »
    You wouldn't get €2 back from that bet, 20 cent maybe.

    Well like I've been doing really well on Wimbledon recently betting on matches when they are 1.1 despite it being clear who the winner will be.

    So for 1.1 I get back €1 for every €10 I bet and I've been able to claw back losses in a few hours.

    Doesn't take more than 5 mins over the course of a day to get back my losses when I check in on occasion.
    ShaneU wrote: »
    And to answer your question, they wouldn't care about €10, but if your betting pattern is staking hundreds on heavily odds on bets they would soon limit or close your account

    Grand.. I wouldn't be betting huge amounts, just nice to get back anything I lose and end up breaking even.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,853 ✭✭✭ duffman13


    mrcheez wrote: »
    Well like I've been doing really well on Wimbledon recently betting on matches when they are 1.1 despite it being clear who the winner will be.

    So for 1.1 I get back €1 for every €10 I bet and I've been able to claw back losses in a few hours.

    Doesn't take more than 5 mins over the course of a day to get back my losses when I check in on occasion.



    Grand.. I wouldn't be betting huge amounts, just nice to get back anything I lose and end up breaking even.

    I traded Betfair a few years ago specifically around Tennis. Those 1.1s your getting now are nowhere near a sure thing as much as you may think. Tennis is a volatile enough sport at times and although you might think its clear it's not. Granted my trading pattern was a lot different to what your doing now but I've seen more than enough 1.1s blow up in every tournament.

    Keep going while it works by all means but don't get tempted to up the stakes. Discipline is important


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,571 ✭✭✭✭ mrcheez


    duffman13 wrote: »
    Keep going while it works by all means but don't get tempted to up the stakes. Discipline is important

    Absolutely, I'm not going to make this a regular thing, once Wimbledon / World Cup is over I'm out until next year (or next World Cup)

    If I end up with a profit to buy some PC games I'll be happy, but would prefer to break even if not.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,464 ✭✭✭ Ultimate Seduction


    My account was limited to 10r maximum stake after only 2 big accumlater wins


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭ Glenbhoy


    duffman13 wrote: »
    I traded Betfair a few years ago specifically around Tennis. Those 1.1s your getting now are nowhere near a sure thing as much as you may think. Tennis is a volatile enough sport at times and although you might think its clear it's not. Granted my trading pattern was a lot different to what your doing now but I've seen more than enough 1.1s blow up in every tournament.

    Keep going while it works by all means but don't get tempted to up the stakes. Discipline is important

    Indeed, the one thing you can be sure of, the bookie price will not be anything like the implied percentage, that's how they make money.
    If you want to give yourself a chance on this type of thing, you have to be on Betfair. Price will be as close to reality as it's possible to get. That 1/10 shot, you'll quickly see is trading at 1/5 or similar on Betfair.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,480 ✭✭✭ Peintre Celebre


    ShaneU wrote: »
    You wouldn't get €2 back from that bet, 20 cent maybe.

    And to answer your question, they wouldn't care about €10, but if your betting pattern is staking hundreds on heavily odds on bets they would soon limit or close your account

    Are you saying that tongue in cheek or seriously?

    Lumping on long odds on shots is a sure fire way to get your stakes increased not restricted


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,249 ✭✭✭ JustJoe7240


    mrcheez wrote: »
    Well like I've been doing really well on Wimbledon recently betting on matches when they are 1.1 despite it being clear who the winner will be.

    So for 1.1 I get back €1 for every €10 I bet and I've been able to claw back losses in a few hours.

    Doesn't take more than 5 mins over the course of a day to get back my losses when I check in on occasion.



    Grand.. I wouldn't be betting huge amounts, just nice to get back anything I lose and end up breaking even.


    You've been very lucky up until now, a 1.1 shot in tennis is not a sure thing, and swings in tennis are very very frequent. I've seen 1.01 shots lose on several occasions, especially considering tennis is such a psychological game. Short answer is over a large sample size, You will lose money. It only takes one bet to undo weeks of work.Bookies will be more than happy to let you put on as much as you want, and will more than likely up your stake factor rather than restrict you.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,571 ✭✭✭✭ mrcheez


    What does "up your stake factor" mean?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,249 ✭✭✭ JustJoe7240


    mrcheez wrote: »
    What does "up your stake factor" mean?

    So bookies have a maximum stake on every market, based on what they're willing to lose on that market. A new customer would have a stake factor of 1, basically it's a multiplier. Say the max stake on a market is 500 quid, A new customer would be allowed bet 1x500. Now say over time, a bookie looks at your bets, and sees what you're betting on, and is happy with the prices you're taking, he might up your stake factor to 2. Taking the example above, You'd be allowed bet 2x500 or 1K. Inversely, If the bookie isn't happy with what you're backing, be it prices that are better than what you should be getting or are arbs with other bookies, they may decide to cut your stake factor, Say to 0.2, Again using the above example. You'd be allow bet 0.2 x 500= 100


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,571 ✭✭✭✭ mrcheez


    Ah ok.. I thought it might be that my odds were worse than others.

    I don't think I've anything to worry about as I won't be betting more than €20 or so as that seems to get back a few euros each time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,249 ✭✭✭ JustJoe7240


    mrcheez wrote: »
    Ah ok.. I thought it might be that my odds were worse than others.

    I don't think I've anything to worry about as I won't be betting more than €20 or so as that seems to get back a few euros each time.

    No, It wouldn't affect your odds. I'm not sure what bookmakers you're using, but have a look at setting up a betfair exchange account, You'll get better prices than the sportsbook, Best of luck.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,571 ✭✭✭✭ mrcheez


    No, It wouldn't affect your odds. I'm not sure what bookmakers you're using, but have a look at setting up a betfair exchange account, You'll get better prices than the sportsbook, Best of luck.

    ah as soon as World Cup / Wimbledon is over I'm out :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 677 ✭✭✭ slimshady007


    mrcheez wrote: »
    ah as soon as World Cup / Wimbledon is over I'm out :D

    Hope you weren't on Federer there - 2 sets up and match point in the 3rd about as close to a sure thing as you're gonna get.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,571 ✭✭✭✭ mrcheez


    Was just about to put €10 on Anderson when it was 2.3 butit dropped to 1.06 a second later...gotta be fast


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭ Glenbhoy


    Hope you weren't on Federer there - 2 sets up and match point in the 3rd about as close to a sure thing as you're gonna get.

    What price did federer trade at, 1.02?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 610 Sprinter Sacre


    Glenbhoy wrote: »
    What price did federer trade at, 1.02?

    1.01. 60k matched at 1.01 when he was on match point. Well over 5 million matched on Federer from 1.10 down to 1.01.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,006 ✭✭✭ the whole year inn


    1.01. 60k matched at 1.01 when he was on match point. Well over 5 million matched on Federer from 1.10 down to 1.01.

    Wonder what's swings like at betting on them markets.Surely it's bad and hard to make cash on it.One loss would put us in the red big time.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 610 Sprinter Sacre


    Wonder what's swings like at betting on them markets.Surely it's bad and hard to make cash on it.One loss would put us in the red big time.

    I know a lad who trades tennis full time, he told me it was ages of pain and variance but he said once you know what you're doing you can make crazy returns. He says women's tennis is where it is at, understandably so given how often breaks are, how often top ranked opponents get beat and even fly up and down the rankings and how the serve is less influential than the men's game.

    I traded a few quid just to get up the live stream for Nadal/Djokovic on BF but watched the markets and price movements were substantial for nearly every point even there. Up to the last set Nadal was at like 1.8, Djokovic 2.2 but when Djokovic was about to win his service game that was reversed, with Djokovic going to 1.75 usually. Then when Nadal would win his service it would go back to Nadal being odds on.

    I'd say you could have made a fortune on Isner/Anderson just by backing the server before each game and trading out...now that's a strategy that long term is 99% likely going to be a losing strategy but on occasions like yesterday you could have made a killing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,571 ✭✭✭✭ mrcheez


    I got a 44/1 on Anderson/Isner based on total number of games.

    Only put 50c on it but a nice €22.

    But normally I bet on tennis during the match or towards end as no real benefit in betting beforehand.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,571 ✭✭✭✭ mrcheez


    I know a lad who trades tennis full time, he told me it was ages of pain and variance but he said once you know what you're doing you can make crazy returns. He says women's tennis is where it is at, understandably so given how often breaks are, how often top ranked opponents get beat and even fly up and down the rankings and how the serve is less influential than the men's game.

    I traded a few quid just to get up the live stream for Nadal/Djokovic on BF but watched the markets and price movements were substantial for nearly every point even there. Up to the last set Nadal was at like 1.8, Djokovic 2.2 but when Djokovic was about to win his service game that was reversed, with Djokovic going to 1.75 usually. Then when Nadal would win his service it would go back to Nadal being odds on.

    I'd say you could have made a fortune on Isner/Anderson just by backing the server before each game and trading out...now that's a strategy that long term is 99% likely going to be a losing strategy but on occasions like yesterday you could have made a killing.

    I've been betting a lot on tennis lately and perhaps I'm jinxing myself here, but 9/10 I've been winning.

    The formula I've been using is:

    - NEVER bet before the match
    - Wait for a match to go to 1 set all
    - Identify a match where the lowest odds are 1.4
    - Click into the match and check the stats. If one player is obviously dominating in the stats at this stage then 9/10 times they are going to win. Even if they are currently down 2 games. Sometimes the odds on these players are actually HIGHER than the other player if they are currently losing the set.
    - If there is no obvious dominant player, skip the match and wait for a different one.
    - BET SMALL AMOUNTS, just for the 1/10 times it doesn't work!

    There seem to be matches non-stop at the moment with all the opens on, and I've been scraping up some nice spare change during lunchtime.


    OH and my top tip: Ignore the world rankings, it means nothing as a great player can have a bad day and I've often won on players that are ranked a few hundred points below the loser.

    The best thing about tennis is that there's no DRAW. It's either win or lose. It's the reason I'm hesitant about betting on football.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,532 ✭✭✭ paddyg91


    If you're doing this you'd get better prices on an exchange. There is no such thing as a sure thing in betting.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,571 ✭✭✭✭ mrcheez


    paddyg91 wrote: »
    If you're doing this you'd get better prices on an exchange. There is no such thing as a sure thing in betting.

    Perhaps not a "sure thing" but an "extremely likely" 95% success rate thing comes up often.

    I'm not bothered about expanding further than the system I'm using at present as once I get enough cash for a particular PC game I want at the moment I'm out :)

    I could buy it with my own cash of course, but it's so much more rewarding knowing I won it :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 641 ✭✭✭ cichlid child


    Can i ask were you get the in match stats thanks.
    Also thanks for sharing your system its interesting.
    mrcheez wrote: »
    I've been betting a lot on tennis lately and perhaps I'm jinxing myself here, but 9/10 I've been winning.

    The formula I've been using is:

    - NEVER bet before the match
    - Wait for a match to go to 1 set all
    - Identify a match where the lowest odds are 1.4
    - Click into the match and check the stats. If one player is obviously dominating in the stats at this stage then 9/10 times they are going to win. Even if they are currently down 2 games. Sometimes the odds on these players are actually HIGHER than the other player if they are currently losing the set.
    - If there is no obvious dominant player, skip the match and wait for a different one.
    - BET SMALL AMOUNTS, just for the 1/10 times it doesn't work!

    There seem to be matches non-stop at the moment with all the opens on, and I've been scraping up some nice spare change during lunchtime.


    OH and my top tip: Ignore the world rankings, it means nothing as a great player can have a bad day and I've often won on players that are ranked a few hundred points below the loser.

    The best thing about tennis is that there's no DRAW. It's either win or lose. It's the reason I'm hesitant about betting on football.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,571 ✭✭✭✭ mrcheez


    Can i ask were you get the in match stats thanks.
    Also thanks for sharing your system its interesting.

    Just using the stats on various betting websites like this:

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/tennis/tennis/prague-challenger/guilherme-clezar-v-tim-van-rijthoven/227197623/


    e.g. in this game you can get Guilherme Clezar at 1.14

    I wouldn't be interested in this match, I'd wait till it went up to 1.3 at least, but it seems clear from the stats who is doing well at this stage.

    Personally I prefer to wait until games reach a 3rd set.


    I just bet €1.85 before popping out to lunch, and came back to €3.79 winnings ... generally make about €10 a day.

    Could probably go higher if I put down larger stakes of course, but I'm gradually gaining the profits by betting small and safe.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,571 ✭✭✭✭ mrcheez


    ... and as predicted Guilherme won ... odds went up to 1.5 at one stage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,380 ✭✭✭ mayoman1973


    What exactly is a "Sure thing"?  Approaching 21,000 ( Yes twenty one thousand selections ) on horse racing and the stats I could give you on the profits (Or losses to be more exact) of nags whos odds are < 1.10  would have you, the wife and kids eating Christmas dinner in the local soup kitchen. My advice to you would be that if you think there is such as a "100% cert" in betting and its odds in > 1.00 then ask yourself the question,  why would PP or any other bookmaker for that matter give away free money?   But on the other hand if you do know that an outcome is 100% certain and Mr Bookie is offering odds > 1.00 on this predetermined result then put the house + wife + kids on it cause it is money in the bank.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,249 ✭✭✭ JustJoe7240


    mrcheez wrote: »
    Just using the stats on various betting websites like this:

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/tennis/tennis/prague-challenger/guilherme-clezar-v-tim-van-rijthoven/227197623/


    e.g. in this game you can get Guilherme Clezar at 1.14

    I wouldn't be interested in this match, I'd wait till it went up to 1.3 at least, but it seems clear from the stats who is doing well at this stage.

    Personally I prefer to wait until games reach a 3rd set.


    I just bet €1.85 before popping out to lunch, and came back to €3.79 winnings ... generally make about €10 a day.

    Could probably go higher if I put down larger stakes of course, but I'm gradually gaining the profits by betting small and safe.

    So much for once Wimledon/World Cup is over, I'm out!! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,571 ✭✭✭✭ mrcheez


    So much for once Wimledon/World Cup is over, I'm out!! :D

    hehe ... when I'm onto a winning formula there's no going back.

    As long as it isn't costing me anything (I won back my losses a while ago so all these bets are costing me nothing)

    If I lose THIS amount, then I'm out. No more deposits.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,380 ✭✭✭ mayoman1973


    Interesting thread..... but don't be falling into the loser trap of saying "This is money I won so its not really mine, hence I can afford to lose it"  This will just lead to you doing silly stuff and losing focus on your system.
    WTF !! ... You can bet your sorry a$$ any money I win I see as mine and it will get the same treatment as money I had to work for back in the day.  Of course if its just a bit of fun then no harm in throwing it back over the hedge to the bookie but when you make the switch to doing this for a living then your views will most definitely change :) 
    Best of luck with your picks anyways


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