Epsom 1st June 2018, Oaks Day

diomed

I have bet €70 at 30.55 Windstoss in the 12f Coronation Cup, Group 1
My worry is the jockey will not know Epsom.

The favourite, Cracksman, is 2/7.
Cracksman's last two runs were at 10f, he has form on soft, but most of his form is on good. he has won 6 of 8, but one of his defeats was here.
Today is soft ground on a tough 12f course. There may not be enough runners to make a good pace to test Cracksman.

Mgoraf

I reckon cracksman will be unbeatable this season if the ground is soft. He clearly loves this surface.

I think he is an overrated horse tho and will be well worth taking on any tine the ground is quick.

longshotvalue

Cracksman is 11/8 to win by up to 4.5 lgts.


Seems that they would be mad to be killing him too much on soft ground.


I got tempted to have a decent bet but decided against it in the end.

kiers47

I thought Galloway Hills was interesting on the step up to 7f with SDS up @8-2.

However the price is completely gone now. Has he been price-wised does anyone know?

diomed

I was at Epsom in 2002 when German horse Boreal hacked up in the Coronation Cup on soft.
Perhaps i am influenced by that memory.

Mgoraf

kiers47 wrote: »

I thought Galloway Hills was interesting on the step up to 7f with SDS up @8-2.

However the price is completely gone now. Has he been price-wised does anyone know?

Paul kealy NAP' d him

antietam

Just laid 8k to Craksman the Frankel rogue.

diomed

Never in doubt.

diomed

Saxon Warrior the next odds on hoss to cruise in.

Backstreet Moyes

kiers47 wrote: »

I thought Galloway Hills was interesting on the step up to 7f with SDS up @8-2.

However the price is completely gone now. Has he been price-wised does anyone know?

De Sousa is abandoning Juanto Chico for him which is what stands out to me.

diomed

I had a €100 loss on Windstoss but value against a 2/7 fav.

kiers47

Mgoraf wrote: »

Paul kealy NAP' d him

That explains it. Was that on the podcast or something?

Mgoraf

Yeah on the pod.

Thst was such a strange race. The 2nd was well beaten in the derby last year. By canford cliffs he should be a non stayer

Cracksman didn't look like he was travelling the whole way. I'd say he hates the track but there isn't a hope he'll be close in an arc imo.

Johner

I think it was quite clear he hated the track, he did well to win that considering. I'd still fancy him for Royal Ascot.

kiers47

Mgoraf wrote: »

Yeah on the pod.

Thst was such a strange race. The 2nd was well beaten in the derby last year. By canford cliffs he should be a non stayer

Cracksman didn't look like he was travelling the whole way. I'd say he hates the track but there isn't a hope he'll be close in an arc imo.

I think they are better off sticking to 10f imo.
There is a nice break between the Irish and British Champion stakes this year. 5 weeks i think.
There is a nice path that can be made there.
Prince of Wales->Eclipse->International->Irish Ch->British Ch

If he won a couple of them would be great. They could even skip the British Champion and send him to the breeders cup which would be a punt to nothing if he has a couple of them races picked up before it.

That Oppenheimer lad is a nutter though.

tryfix

I don't buy into the "he hated the track" talk. He's run there 3 times with two wins and a third in The Derby to show for it and he had the kind of ground which has been the making of him. Before the off I thought his price 30/100 was very generous.

He ran almost 20lbs below form today, or did he? Idaho ran a stinker, Hawkbill ran a stinker. What we saw today was Salouen running out of his skin from the front. Take Salouen out of it and the pundits would have been hailing another marvelous victory for Cracksman.

Cracksman to my eyes is a very strange beast, he has massive shoulders and is a very wide horse. He looks like a bull of a sprinter on top of middle-distance legs and stride.

diomed

tryfix wrote: »

I don't buy into the "he hated the track" talk.

From the protecting stud value book of excuses.
Others are "pulled a muscle"; "got struck into"; "finished lame"; "made a gurgling noise".

diomed

€20 Bye Bye Baby at 8.6
I am confused by this field.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

From the protecting stud value book of excuses.
Others are "pulled a muscle"; "got struck into"; "finished lame"; "made a gurgling noise".

If you look at the times so far for the day, it was the fastest run race so far today. It will be interesting to see if the fillies in the Oaks better his time.

1st race 6f slow by 4.65
2nd race 1m 1/2f slow by 5.54
3rd race 1m 4f slow by 3.99
4th race 1m 2f slow by 5.27

diomed

I wouldn't mind if Perfect Clarity won as she is in two Oaks/Derby doubles.

diomed

I had to rush to the door to a courier delivering a Dvorak keyboard, a keyboard with all the keys in the wrong places (i.e. not a qwerty).
It is beautifully made (by Matias), and has a button to push if you want to switch to qwerty.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

I wouldn't mind if Perfect Clarity won as she is in two Oaks/Derby doubles.

She looks like a proper old fashioned Oaks filly, long and rangy with plenty of scope.

TheMilkyPirate

Forever together for me. Another group 1 for donnacha

diomed

A pointer to Kew Gardens tomorrow?

tryfix

A great ride and they finished well strung out.

diomed

No excuses there. She strung them out.

diomed

Aidan phoning home to order a curry from the local take out.

tryfix

The first 5 were in the first 5 throughout the race, with Salouen 's huge run from the front in the Coronation Cup it would appear that the ground is favouring horses that are up with the pace.

TheMilkyPirate

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Forever together for me. Another group 1 for donnacha

Good lad Donnacha

diomed

Galileo, Dubawi, Galileo, Galileo, Galileo.

diomed

Time slow by 5.89s