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April 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 28-03-2018 6:05pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value for April is 8.4 C. (max 25 points)

    2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during April. (max 20 points)

    3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

    4. Predict the PRC in April (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) for April as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

    6. BONUS question -- predict the IMT at the halfway point, that is, after 15 days. The normal value for this would be 7.6 degrees.

    Deadline for on-time entries will be 0300h Sunday 1st of April. The normal penalties apply after that time.

    Good luck !!


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _________ 8.3 __ 16.9 __ -2.5 __ 130 __ 90 __ 7.4

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCXBXC____8.4__17.8__-1.2___100__100___7__

    Going for a fairly average month.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal _________ 8.2 __ 15.9 __ -1.9 __ 95 __ 99 __ 7.1


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 _________ 8.4 __ 17.8 __ -3.2 __ 110 __ 95 __ 7


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    sdanseo _________ 8.0 __ 16.0 __ -3.2 __ 118 __ 108 __ 7.1


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry________ 8.1__ 17.3 __ -2.8 __ 108__ 100__ 7.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29________ 8.0__ 15.0 __ -2.0 __ 110__ 105__ 7.2


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 _________ 8.5 __ 18.5 __ -1.4 __ 110 __ 95 __ 7.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels——— 7.9 16.2. -3.7. 105. 102 6.8


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium _______ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -3.5 _ 140 _ 085 __ 6.4


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts _________ 7.3 __ 17.9 __ -2.2 __ 115 __ 90 __ 6.9


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public_______ 8.2 __ 19.9 __ -3.9 __ 125 __ 90 __ 6.8


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac _________ 7.9 __ 16.4 __ -2.3 __ 120 __ 101 __ 6.4


  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner_____7.5_____18.4°____-3.3°_____92_____111______6.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 8.00 ___ 16.8 ___ -2.00 ___ 85 ___ 115 ___6.2


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa _______ 8.1 _ 20.9 _ -2.9 _ 168 _ 82 _ 6.7


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,102 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH_______8.2___18.1___-3.2___110___95___7.2


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _______ 8.3 _ 20.5 _ -2.7 _ 134 _ 088 __ 6.9


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn_______ 8.0__ 18.5 __ -2.8 __ 115__ 110__ 7.2


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7_________ 7.7__ 21.3 __ -4.4 __ 120__ 95__ 6.8


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  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir________ 7.8 __ 16.3 __ -3.4 __ 115 __ 103 __ 6.6


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,756 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire____7.9__18.5__-3.0___86__110___7.6


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ____ 8.5 ____ 18.5 ____ -4.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 7.5


    No late penalty please, i was comatose on chocolate :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    I like the originality of that plea for mercy. My finger will hover over the minus sign with considerable angst and guilt, but will make contact with the keyboard even so. It takes a hard man to run a contest let me tell you.


  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Mt. Dillon -3.3 for openers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for April, 2018


    FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ IMT (1-15)

    Sunflower3 _________ 8.5 _ 18.5 _ -1.4 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 7.5
    Rikand ____ (-3) _____8.5 _ 18.5 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 7.5
    JCXBXC ____________ 8.4 _ 17.8 _ -1.2 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 7.0
    Artane2002 _________ 8.4 _ 17.8 _ -3.2 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 7.0

    NormaL ____________ 8.4 _ 20.0 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 7.8
    waterways __________ 8.3 _ 20.5 _ -2.7 _ 134 _ 088 ____ 6.9
    sryanbruen __________8.3 _ 16.9 _ -2.5 _ 130 _ 090 ____ 7.4
    Joe Public ___________8.2 _ 19.9 _ -3.9 _ 125 _ 090 ____ 6.8
    DOCARCH___________ 8.2 _ 18.1 _ -3.2 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 7.2
    Bsal _______________ 8.2 _ 15.9 _ -1.9 _ 095 _ 099 ____ 7.1
    Dacogawa __________ 8.1 _ 20.9 _ -2.9 _ 168 _ 082 ____ 6.7
    Pauldry_____________ 8.1 _ 17.3 _ -2.8 _ 108 _ 100 ____ 7.0
    Jpmarn_____________ 8.0 _ 18.5 _ -2.8 _ 115 _ 110 ____ 7.2

    Con Sensus _________ 8.0 _ 17.9 _ -2.9 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 7.0

    Kindred Spirit ________8.0 _ 16.8 _ -2.0 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 6.2
    sdanseo ____________ 8.0 _ 16.0 _ -3.2 _ 118 _ 108 ____ 7.1
    Dasa29_____________ 8.0 _ 15.0 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 7.2
    Rameire _____ (-2) ___7.9 _ 18.5 _ -3.0 _ 086 _ 110 ____ 7.6
    john mac ___________ 7.9 _ 16.4 _ -2.3 _ 120 _ 101 ____ 6.4
    200motels __________ 7.9 _ 16.2 _ -3.7 _ 105 _ 102 ____ 6.8
    Tae laidir ___ (-1) ____ 7.8 _ 16.3 _ -3.4 _ 115 _ 103 ____ 6.6
    BLIZZARD7__________ 7.7 _ 21.3 _ -4.4 _ 120 _ 095 ____ 6.8
    MrSkinner ___________7.5 _ 18.4 _ -3.3 _ 092 _ 111 ____ 6.5
    mickger844posts _____ 7.3 _ 17.9 _ -2.2 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 6.9
    M.T. Cranium ________ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -3.5 _ 140 _ 085 ____ 6.4
    _________________________________________________________________________

    Con Sensus is the median value (12th of 23 forecasts).

    Our group consensus appears to be somewhat cooler and wetter than average with near normal sunshine.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    -5.3C at Mullingar yesterday, I doubt if that will be beaten. Nobody went that low! BLIZZARD7 was nearest with -4.4C


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    I almost went -5 but chickened out when i saw everyone elses guesses :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Scoring will go to the minimum progression anyway so you'll get a good score there.

    Meanwhile, here's where things stand after one week ...

    IMT 6.0 which is 2.0 below average for the time of year (my value for normal 1-15 seems a bit low therefore, may need to boost that to 8.2).

    MAX 15.7 (Newport on 7th) and MIN --5.3 (Mullingar on 5th).

    PRC is what I needed last month :) ... 245% of normal so far.

    SUN only 61% (364/600).


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,185 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    MAX now 15.8 (Sunday also at Newport). This won't be in play by end of month but gotta keep score on every hole.


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