April 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value for April is 8.4 C. (max 25 points)

2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during April. (max 20 points)

3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

4. Predict the PRC in April (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) for April as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

6. BONUS question -- predict the IMT at the halfway point, that is, after 15 days. The normal value for this would be 7.6 degrees.

Deadline for on-time entries will be 0300h Sunday 1st of April. The normal penalties apply after that time.

Good luck !!

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _________ 8.3 __ 16.9 __ -2.5 __ 130 __ 90 __ 7.4

JCX BXC

JCXBXC____8.4__17.8__-1.2___100__100___7__

Going for a fairly average month.

Bsal

Bsal _________ 8.2 __ 15.9 __ -1.9 __ 95 __ 99 __ 7.1

Artane2002

Artane2002 _________ 8.4 __ 17.8 __ -3.2 __ 110 __ 95 __ 7

sdanseo

sdanseo _________ 8.0 __ 16.0 __ -3.2 __ 118 __ 108 __ 7.1

pauldry

Pauldry________ 8.1__ 17.3 __ -2.8 __ 108__ 100__ 7.0

dasa29

Dasa29________ 8.0__ 15.0 __ -2.0 __ 110__ 105__ 7.2

sunflower3

Sunflower3 _________ 8.5 __ 18.5 __ -1.4 __ 110 __ 95 __ 7.5

200motels

200motels——— 7.9 16.2. -3.7. 105. 102 6.8

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium _______ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -3.5 _ 140 _ 085 __ 6.4

mickger844posts

mickger844posts _________ 7.3 __ 17.9 __ -2.2 __ 115 __ 90 __ 6.9

Joe Public

Joe Public_______ 8.2 __ 19.9 __ -3.9 __ 125 __ 90 __ 6.8

John mac

john mac _________ 7.9 __ 16.4 __ -2.3 __ 120 __ 101 __ 6.4

mrskinner

Skinner_____7.5_____18.4°____-3.3°_____92_____111______6.5

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 8.00 ___ 16.8 ___ -2.00 ___ 85 ___ 115 ___6.2

dacogawa

Dacogawa _______ 8.1 _ 20.9 _ -2.9 _ 168 _ 82 _ 6.7

DOCARCH

DOCARCH_______8.2___18.1___-3.2___110___95___7.2

waterways

waterways _______ 8.3 _ 20.5 _ -2.7 _ 134 _ 088 __ 6.9

Jpmarn

Jpmarn_______ 8.0__ 18.5 __ -2.8 __ 115__ 110__ 7.2

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7_________ 7.7__ 21.3 __ -4.4 __ 120__ 95__ 6.8

Tae laidir

Tae laidir________ 7.8 __ 16.3 __ -3.4 __ 115 __ 103 __ 6.6

rameire

Rameire____7.9__18.5__-3.0___86__110___7.6

Rikand

Rikand ____ 8.5 ____ 18.5 ____ -4.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 7.5


No late penalty please, i was comatose on chocolate

M.T. Cranium

I like the originality of that plea for mercy. My finger will hover over the minus sign with considerable angst and guilt, but will make contact with the keyboard even so. It takes a hard man to run a contest let me tell you.

Tae laidir

Mt. Dillon -3.3 for openers.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for April, 2018


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ IMT (1-15)

Sunflower3 _________ 8.5 _ 18.5 _ -1.4 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 7.5
Rikand ____ (-3) _____8.5 _ 18.5 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 7.5
JCXBXC ____________ 8.4 _ 17.8 _ -1.2 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 7.0
Artane2002 _________ 8.4 _ 17.8 _ -3.2 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 7.0

NormaL ____________ 8.4 _ 20.0 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 7.8
waterways __________ 8.3 _ 20.5 _ -2.7 _ 134 _ 088 ____ 6.9
sryanbruen __________8.3 _ 16.9 _ -2.5 _ 130 _ 090 ____ 7.4
Joe Public ___________8.2 _ 19.9 _ -3.9 _ 125 _ 090 ____ 6.8
DOCARCH___________ 8.2 _ 18.1 _ -3.2 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 7.2
Bsal _______________ 8.2 _ 15.9 _ -1.9 _ 095 _ 099 ____ 7.1
Dacogawa __________ 8.1 _ 20.9 _ -2.9 _ 168 _ 082 ____ 6.7
Pauldry_____________ 8.1 _ 17.3 _ -2.8 _ 108 _ 100 ____ 7.0
Jpmarn_____________ 8.0 _ 18.5 _ -2.8 _ 115 _ 110 ____ 7.2

Con Sensus _________ 8.0 _ 17.9 _ -2.9 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 7.0

Kindred Spirit ________8.0 _ 16.8 _ -2.0 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 6.2
sdanseo ____________ 8.0 _ 16.0 _ -3.2 _ 118 _ 108 ____ 7.1
Dasa29_____________ 8.0 _ 15.0 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 7.2
Rameire _____ (-2) ___7.9 _ 18.5 _ -3.0 _ 086 _ 110 ____ 7.6
john mac ___________ 7.9 _ 16.4 _ -2.3 _ 120 _ 101 ____ 6.4
200motels __________ 7.9 _ 16.2 _ -3.7 _ 105 _ 102 ____ 6.8
Tae laidir ___ (-1) ____ 7.8 _ 16.3 _ -3.4 _ 115 _ 103 ____ 6.6
BLIZZARD7__________ 7.7 _ 21.3 _ -4.4 _ 120 _ 095 ____ 6.8
MrSkinner ___________7.5 _ 18.4 _ -3.3 _ 092 _ 111 ____ 6.5
mickger844posts _____ 7.3 _ 17.9 _ -2.2 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 6.9
M.T. Cranium ________ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -3.5 _ 140 _ 085 ____ 6.4
_________________________________________________________________________

Con Sensus is the median value (12th of 23 forecasts).

Our group consensus appears to be somewhat cooler and wetter than average with near normal sunshine.

Joe Public

-5.3C at Mullingar yesterday, I doubt if that will be beaten. Nobody went that low! BLIZZARD7 was nearest with -4.4C

Rikand

I almost went -5 but chickened out when i saw everyone elses guesses

M.T. Cranium

Scoring will go to the minimum progression anyway so you'll get a good score there.

Meanwhile, here's where things stand after one week ...

IMT 6.0 which is 2.0 below average for the time of year (my value for normal 1-15 seems a bit low therefore, may need to boost that to 8.2).

MAX 15.7 (Newport on 7th) and MIN --5.3 (Mullingar on 5th).

PRC is what I needed last month ... 245% of normal so far.

SUN only 61% (364/600).

M.T. Cranium

MAX now 15.8 (Sunday also at Newport). This won't be in play by end of month but gotta keep score on every hole.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT is 7.5 C (from 7.46) and this past week was 8.9 C which was 0.5 C above normal.

For the bonus question, as today appears to be on track to average 12 C, that would make the IMT 1-15 about 7.7 C, will confirm tomorrow. Looks like Rameire (and NormaL) were closest, we were all a bit below the mark.

MAX and MIN remain 15.8 and --5.3.

PRC is now "only" 152% with this past week rather dry at 58% of normal. Cork and Valentia were above normal but Belmullet and Malin Head were almost dry.

SUN is now a pathetic 50% of normal with this past week a touch below 40% (238/600). Cork was almost overcast throughout at 12% (Knock managed 2%).

With the warmer spell expected, IMT will likely keep rising towards 9.0, if it gets there it may have trouble holding on but the warmer end of our forecasts look to be in good shape. Rainfall will continue to mount, and sun can only get better you would have to think, although perhaps not a lot better.

pauldry

Incredible after cold 1st week. But we are now in very warm territory until end of month. 9c could indeed be IMT

15 Day IMT 7.72

M.T. Cranium

As expected, the IMT for 1-15 was 7.7 C.

Because of ties near the top and bottom, the scoring will be 10 for top three, and then pairs all the way down to one point which also goes to three spots, adding on NormaL and Con where they fit in.

So it will be 10 points for Rameire (7.6), sunflower and Rikand (both 7.5).

Then 9 points go to sryanbruen (7.4), DOCARCH, JPmarn and dasa29 (all at 7.2). NormaL fits in here, I said that normal was 7.9 but from the weekly reports it should have been 8.2 (same error as 7.2).

That was a large enough group to skip 8 points, so 7 points for Bsal and sdanseo (both at 7.1).

Six points will go to the group at 7.0 (JCXBXC, Artane2002, Pauldry, and Con Sensus).

Five points for waterways and mickger844posts at 6.9.

Four points for 200motels, BLIZZARD7 and Joe Public at 6.8.

That accumulated two extra tied scores so next jog is down to two points for Dacogawa at 6.7 and Tae laidir at 6.6.

One point to the rest of the crew, MTC and John mac at 6.4, Kindred spirit at 6.2.

You know, I could probably score this contest now as almost everything will go off minimum progression the way things are shaping up, the only element that might score naturally would be MAX, perhaps SUN also. Not sure if PRC will stay above the 168% from Dacogawa but seems likely to be well into the range between that and second highest PRC forecast of 140 from me. I see a 21.3 and 20.9 in the MAX forecasts, not too sure yet if we'll get quite that high, but seems possible. SUN might struggle up to 80% which is our lowest forecast, if it doesn't, scores will be about the same anyway from minimum progression.

If everything aside from the bonus and MAX were to be scored off minimum progression with the assumptions that PRC is between 140 and 168, and MAX is 20.0, then high score looks to be Joe Public around 75 then NormaL around 72, with waterways at 68 (could be as high as 73 if MAX was 20.5 then Joe would be at 70). Dacogawa would also be close to 68 and could move up 9 with a MAX of 20.9. Rikand scores about 65 but could do much better if the MAX is held down to the 18s and there turns out to be a lot of sunshine from now on. BLIZZARD7 is around 60 but could add 13 to that if the MAX reached 21.3 or higher. But those top score estimates are based on all these assumptions so check back later and see how this is actually working out.

M.T. Cranium

MAX 20.0 Wed 18th at Malin and PP.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks, and a notable warm spell ...

IMT now 8.9 after this warm spell week with an average of 11.6 which was 2.7 above normal. I suspect the last few days have been pretty close to the July or August normals.

MAX on 20.0 and MIN --5.3

PRC edged back up to 154% after this week averaged 158% of normal (mostly on 15th to 17th, after which it has been largely dry). Those downpours missed both Dublin A and Malin Head (only Malin Head is in the group of stations used) which both averaged only 32%. But Cork and Valentia were both around three times normal.

SUN improved to 71% of normal, thanks to this past few days, boosting the weekly average to 112% (671/600).

As I didn't notice the ag report on the new site, this is where to find it

http://archive.met.ie/latest/agricultural.asp

John mac

its here https://www2.metweb.ie/forecasts/farming/agricultural-data-report


Forecasts .. Farming

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks with a cooling trend underway ...

IMT back to 8.9 C after rising a bit higher, this past week having averaged 9.0 which is 0.5 below average for the period. The 8.9 comes from 8.88 rounded up, so I think it could fall as low as 8.7 with today and Monday being quite cool, so our IMT forecasts which peak at 8.5 will not require many score adjustments.

MAX of 20.0 and MIN of -5.3 both seem quite safe at this point even though some rather chilly nights recently, for example -1.9 on 28th for Markree.

PRC now stands at 148% with this past week coming in at 128% of average. With today's scattered 5-10 mm amounts and tomorrow looking dry, this should end close to 145%. It may lead to a rare triggering of the modified minimum progression, but even so not a large effect on scoring.

SUN has limped back to 79% now thanks to another week with near average amounts (104% from 626/600). This will likely finish at about 80 per cent of normal.

I will provide a table of approximate provisional scoring since these numbers are all fairly close to boundaries of our forecasts (other than MAX which encounters a wide range that may lead to some scoring assistance).

The May forecast thread is open on the rather busy home page of the weather forum. I should give a superbonus just for finding it.

M.T. Cranium

Provisional scoring for April 2018



FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN ___ Bonus _____ TOTALS

Estimated values ______ 8.7_20.0_-5.3_145_088____ 7.7

Joe Public ___________ 20 _ 20*_ 17*_ 11*_ 10 ____ 04 _____ 82
waterways __________ 21 _ 18*_ 07*_ 13*_ 10 ____ 05 _____ 74

NormaL _____________22 _ 20 _ 10* _ 03*_ 08 ____ 09 _____ 72

BLIZZARD7__________ 15 _ 13*_ 19*_ 11*_ 09 ____ 04 _____ 71
Dacogawa ___________19 _ 17*_ 09*_ 12*_ 09 ____ 02 _____ 68
DOCARCH___________ 20 _ 05*_ 12*_ 07*_ 09 ____ 09 _____ 62
Rikand ____ (-3) _____ 23 _ 08*_ 18*_ 01*_ 04 ____ 10_ 64-3=61
sryanbruen __________ 21 _ 02*_ 06*_ 12*_ 10 ____ 10 _____ 61
Artane2002 __________22 _ 04*_ 12*_ 07*_ 09 ____ 06 _____ 60
Sunflower3 __________ 23 _ 08*_ 01*_ 07*_ 09 ____ 10 _____ 58
Jpmarn______________18 _ 08*_ 08*_ 09*_ 06 ____ 09 _____ 58
M.T. Cranium ________ 10 _ 08*_ 15*_ 14*_ 09 ____ 01 _____ 57
sdanseo ____________ 18 _ 00 __12*_ 10*_ 06 ____ 07 _____ 53

Con Sensus __________18 _ 04*_ 09*_ 07*_ 08 ____ 06 _____ 52

Rameire _____ (-2) ___ 17 _ 08*_ 10*_ 01*_ 06 ____ 10 _52-2=50
200motels ___________17 _ 01*_ 16*_ 04*_ 08 ____ 04 _____ 50
Pauldry______________19 _ 03*_ 08*_ 05*_ 08 ____ 06 _____ 49
Tae laidir ___ (-1) _____16 _ 01*_ 14*_ 09*_ 07 ____ 02 _49-1=48
Dasa29______________18 _ 00 __03*_ 07*_ 07 ____ 09 _____ 44
JCXBXC _____________ 22 _ 04*_ 01*_ 03*_ 08 ____ 06 _____ 44
John mac ____________17 _ 01*_ 05*_ 11*_ 08 ____ 01 _____ 43
mickger844posts ______11 _ 04*_ 04*_ 09*_ 10 ____ 05 _____ 43
MrSkinner ___________ 13 _ 07*_ 13*_ 02*_ 06 ____ 02 _____ 43
Bsal ________________20 _ 00 __02*_ 02*_ 08 ____ 07 _____ 39
Kindred Spirit ________ 18 _ 01*_ 03*_ 01*_ 05 ____ 01 _____ 29


* scores adjusted to minimum progression; for MAX, gains were reduced due to accurate high score (gains are limited to half of usual minimum progression adjustments)
_________________________________________________________________________

Actual forecasts

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ IMT (1-15)

Sunflower3 _________ 8.5 _ 18.5 _ -1.4 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 7.5
Rikand ____ (-3) _____8.5 _ 18.5 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 7.5
JCXBXC ____________ 8.4 _ 17.8 _ -1.2 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 7.0
Artane2002 _________ 8.4 _ 17.8 _ -3.2 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 7.0

NormaL ____________ 8.4 _ 20.0 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 7.8

waterways __________ 8.3 _ 20.5 _ -2.7 _ 134 _ 088 ____ 6.9
sryanbruen __________8.3 _ 16.9 _ -2.5 _ 130 _ 090 ____ 7.4
Joe Public ___________8.2 _ 19.9 _ -3.9 _ 125 _ 090 ____ 6.8
DOCARCH___________ 8.2 _ 18.1 _ -3.2 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 7.2
Bsal _______________ 8.2 _ 15.9 _ -1.9 _ 095 _ 099 ____ 7.1
Dacogawa __________ 8.1 _ 20.9 _ -2.9 _ 168 _ 082 ____ 6.7
Pauldry_____________ 8.1 _ 17.3 _ -2.8 _ 108 _ 100 ____ 7.0
Jpmarn_____________ 8.0 _ 18.5 _ -2.8 _ 115 _ 110 ____ 7.2

Con Sensus _________ 8.0 _ 17.9 _ -2.9 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 7.0

Kindred Spirit ________8.0 _ 16.8 _ -2.0 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 6.2
sdanseo ____________ 8.0 _ 16.0 _ -3.2 _ 118 _ 108 ____ 7.1
Dasa29_____________ 8.0 _ 15.0 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 7.2
Rameire _____ (-2) ___7.9 _ 18.5 _ -3.0 _ 086 _ 110 ____ 7.6
john mac ___________ 7.9 _ 16.4 _ -2.3 _ 120 _ 101 ____ 6.4
200motels __________ 7.9 _ 16.2 _ -3.7 _ 105 _ 102 ____ 6.8
Tae laidir ___ (-1) ____ 7.8 _ 16.3 _ -3.4 _ 115 _ 103 ____ 6.6
BLIZZARD7__________ 7.7 _ 21.3 _ -4.4 _ 120 _ 095 ____ 6.8
MrSkinner ___________7.5 _ 18.4 _ -3.3 _ 092 _ 111 ____ 6.5
mickger844posts _____ 7.3 _ 17.9 _ -2.2 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 6.9
M.T. Cranium ________ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -3.5 _ 140 _ 085 ____ 6.4
_________________________________________________________________________

note: edited table early 1st of May as it now appears sunshine values were higher, all but two forecasters gain two points, one (MTC) stays level and one (Dacogawa) loses one point ... stay tuned to see if I have this right yet, info should be available in MS to confirm or adjust this on Wednesday afternoon.

M.T. Cranium

The scoring table above is generally okay after checking the data, however the IMT rounded off to 8.8 C which drops most by one point. Since the minimum progression requires a max score of 23, those who had 23 stay with that, all others go down by one. The sunshine estimate was on the mark and PRC was 144% which makes no difference to the overall scoring. So, no need to repeat the table but all but two will notice a lower score by one point in the annual table:

Annual Scoring Summary for 2018 (Jan to Apr)

rank _FORECASTER _______ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ TOTAL __ previous rank

01 _Dacogawa ____________71 __ 67 __ 70 __ 67 ___ 275 ___ 04
02 _Pauldry______________ 73 __ 58 __ 89 __ 48 ___ 268 ___ 02
03 _mickger844posts ______ 75 __ 77 __ 69 __ 42 ___ 263 ___ 01
04 _DOCARCH ____________63 __ 62 __ 75 __ 61 ___ 261 ___ 05

(05) _Con Sensus _________73 __ 67 __ 69 __ 51 ___ 260 ___(03t)

05 _Rikand ______________ 66 __ 64 __ 62 __ 61 ___ 253 ___ 07-t
06 _sryanbruen ___________56 __ 71 __ 65 __ 60 ___ 252 ___ 07-t
07 _MrSkinner ____________73 __ 64 __ 72 __ 42 ___ 251 ___ 03

(08) NormaL _____________75 __ 52 __ 48 __ 71 ___ 246 ___(13)

08 _sunflower3 ___________ 68 __ 56 __ 63 __ 58 ___ 245 ___ 10
09 _Tae laidir _____________78 __ 53 __ 63 __ 47 ___ 241 ___ 06
10 _waterways ___________ 81 __ 34 __ 51 __ 73 ___ 239 ___ 16
11 _Jpmarn ______________ 71 __ 61 __ 49 __ 57 ___ 238 ___ 12
12 _dasa29 ______________ 69 __ 40 __ 83 __ 43 ___ 235 ___ 07-t
13 _Joe Public ____________ 35 __ 62 __ 48 __ 81 ___ 226 ___ 23
14 _Rameire _____________ 52 __ 56 __ 67 __ 49 ___ 224 ___ 13
15 _Bsal _________________63 __ 49 __ 71 __ 38 ___ 221 ___ 11
16 _BLIZZARD7 ___________27 __ 73 __ 46 __ 70 ___ 216 ___ 22
17 _sdanseo _____________ 45 __ 61 __ 57 __ 52 ___ 215 ___ 18
18 _M.T. Cranium _________ 60 __ 45 __ 52 __ 56 ___ 213 ___ 20
19 _john mac ____________ 48 __ 58 __ 58 __ 42 ___ 206 ___ 17
20 _JCXBXC ______________34 __ 72 __ 54 __ 43 ___ 203 ___ 19
21 _Kindred Spirit. ________ 59 __ 56 __ 55 __ 28 ___ 198 ___ 14-t
22 _200motels ____________36 __ 65 __ 47 __ 49 ___ 197 ___ 21
23 _Lumi ________________54 __ 54 __ 62 __ --- ___ 170 ___ 14-t
24 _Artane2002 ___________--- __ --- __ --- __ 59 ___ 059 ___ ---
25 _Adam240610 __________--- __ ---__ 56 __ --- ___ 056 ___ 24
________________________________________________________________

So, congrats to Joe Public who moved up ten ranks with his high score for April, also waterways moving up six after a solid second place last month. Third place BLIZZARD7 moved up six as well.

In the annual contest, new leader Dacogawa is just ahead of Pauldry who remains second, while mickger844posts has dropped to third, with DOCARCH moving up to fourth, and all of them are ahead of Con Sensus.