Toyota to phase out diesel cars by the end of 2018

Vicxas

http://www.thejournal.ie/toyota-diesel-cars-3886902-Mar2018/

Diesel is now a dirty word in the mouth of the masses.

So the question is now, whats the next car you'll buy?

vicwatson

I wish “they” would make up their minds

Leonard Hofstadter

Porsche have also dropped diesels (although they have said they'll keep their options open) and FCA are dropping diesels from 2022.

Quite a turnaround when you consider that Fiat were the first manufacturer (in the form of Alfa) to introduce a common rail diesel engine, and diesel is still the most popular fuel in their home of Italy.

Apparently only 20% of Toyotas sold in Ireland this year are diesel, and in the UK diesel sales are down to about 36%, that's down from 46% this time last year.

punisher5112

captainspeed wrote: »

Porsche have also dropped diesels (although they have said they'll keep their options open) and FCA are dropping diesels from 2022.

Quite a turnaround when you consider that Fiat were the first manufacturer (in the form of Alfa) to introduce a common rail diesel engine, and diesel is still the most popular fuel in their home of Italy.

Apparently only 20% of Toyotas sold in Ireland this year are diesel, and in the UK diesel sales are down to about 36%, that's down from 46% this time last year.

Toyota are pushing their hybrids big time.

So many were buying diesel that should never even dreamed about doing so.

Toyota will do ok but are extremely slow like many others at going full electric.


Can't wait till one can get nearly any type of car and it be electric.

Cookie_Monster

Not on it's SUVs and Pickups though (obviously), it doesn't even offer diesel as an option on any car platform over here in NZ or Aus, and without checking, I'm sure it's similar elsewhere already.

The Japanese manufacturers were always behind ze Germans when it came to Diesel tech, Toyota even had to acquire BMW diesel engines for a number of models.

I'd say they are delighted to see the back of Diesel so they can focus on technology they're good at i.e super reliable petrols, hybrids and development of Hydrogen power.

Atlantic Dawn

Someone should have told Honda, they have ads all over the papers and radio for their super 'clean' Honda Civic.

bazz26

This is simple logic rather than revolution the way I see it.

Toyota currently only produce the 1.4 inhouse in passenger cars sold in Europe. The 1.4 is a 14 year old design and is not going to pass next round of Euro emission testing so it's time is up and Toyota don't want to invest in developing a new small capacity diesel engine when they are trying to push hybrids. Both Corolla and Auris fitted with the 1.4 are due to be replaced later this year or early next year and Toyota have no new diesel engine in development to fit into them so logic dictates they need to push petrol and hybrid models.

The 1.6 and 2.0 from the likes of the Avensis and Rav4 are built and supplied by BMW. These engines are previous generation N47 engines from BMW which again will not meet the next Euro emission standards and to my knowledge there is no agreement for BMW to supply newer generation diesel engines to Toyota. So the Avensis is not being replaced with a new model and the Rav4 is due to be replaced towards the end of the year or early next year. Logic dictates that Toyota won't have a diesel engine of its own to fit to the next generation of their Corolla/Auris/Rav4 etc so they have to make a big push now to sell petrol and hybrids to the likes of the Irish market.

Sales in their diesels have dropped because people who bought Toyota diesels for the last few years who really didn't have use for them now have better petrol options and Toyota are doing free hybrid upgrades also. Those that still need diesel will just buy something else imo.

Leonard Hofstadter

cisk wrote: »

The Japanese manufacturers were always behind ze Germans when it came to Diesel tech, Toyota even had to acquire BMW diesel engines for a number of models.

I'd say they are delighted to see the back of Diesel so they can focus on technology they're good at i.e super reliable petrols, hybrids and development of Hydrogen power.

To be fair to them, diesel should never have been promoted to the extent it was, especially with all we know about emissions now. Outside of the EU nobody really bothered with diesels, and for good reason.

Obviously from a driving pleasure perspective it's nowhere near as nice as a petrol either (in my personal opinion) but diesel is still by far the best option for people who do a lot of higher speed driving - hybrids use more fuel than diesels at motorway and main road speeds.

For someone like my Dad, who does 25,000 miles a year, I fail to see what petrol or hybrid will be as cheap to run as his diesel Avensis. He'll just have to buy another diesel and be done with it.

Toyota commercial vehicles and the Land Cruiser will still be available with diesel engines, so it isn't a complete 'ban'. Toyota still develops their own diesels; it's only the passenger cars (and Proace) that use non-Toyota engines.

Atlantic Dawn

cisk wrote: »

The Japanese manufacturers were always behind ze Germans when it came to Diesel tech, Toyota even had to acquire BMW diesel engines for a number of models.
.

I think it was more a case of they were unable to produce engines which complied with the varios emissions regulations, later we find out the majority of diesels they were trying to compete against were using a defeat device.

colm_mcm

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Someone should have told Honda, they have ads all over the papers and radio for their super 'clean' Honda Civic.

But they don’t do a diesel civic

Atlantic Dawn

colm_mcm wrote: »

But they don’t do a diesel civic

They do...

http://honda.ie/new-cars/civic-diesel

colm_mcm

Yaay!

Still looks hideous.

Toyota backed the hybrid horse years ago, and stopped developing diesels because of that, the BMW thing was only ever a stopgap. If they had invested in a new diesel engine or two a few years ago you can be sure they’d still be flogging them. The only diesel car engine of their own they’re still selling is 16 years old now. Granted it’s had some updates along the way but it’s still the same basic thing.

They’re giving the hybrids away at the moment, presumably to get them out there and get people used to them.

captainspeed

captainspeed wrote: »

.....

For someone like my Dad, who does 25,000 miles a year, I fail to see what petrol or hybrid will be as cheap to run as his diesel Avensis. He'll just have to buy another diesel and be done with it.
...s.

I averaged 50mpg from a hybrid CHR over 300 miles, half of which was motorway. A 1.5 diesel focus returned about 52mpg in similar driving.

How light is the Avensis on diesel?

elperello

colm_mcm wrote: »

Yaay!

Still looks hideous.

I think they look really well on the road. The pictures don't do justice to a very attractive purposeful design.

Tuco88

I love sales statistics its more marketing B.S. Nobody is buying new Diesels? Well they sure are saving a fortune importing them i have never seen so many 5 series diesels (New for some is used) like me ��. I can see the value of D4D cars holding value now. Not to mention Diesel car sales are at there highest in Japan how ironic.

Petrol will get the boot soon also, it was the original greenhouse gas issue.

I would not mind an EV (my nxt car will be hopefully) its not the car or the distance that worries me, its the charging points more so my estate/parking I dont know how its goning to work.

The Government needs to lay out some kinda standard or layout now as guidelines.

Philb76

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Someone should have told Honda, they have ads all over the papers and radio for their super 'clean' Honda Civic.

Honda wer one of the last carmakers to offer a diesel option ages after the rest of them and I think other than prius they had a hybrid 20 years ago

colm_mcm

Yeah the insight came out just after the first Prius.

Philb76

I was in new York couple of years ago and most of the taxis wer toyota camry hybrid actually a nice looking car and loads of rav 4s all hybrid maybe thats how r large cars will be here in a few years in fact I literally didn't come across one diesel car even all the vws and audis had tsi on the back of them

Frankie Lee

Augeo wrote: »

I averaged 50mpg from a hybrid CHR over 300 miles, half of which was motorway. A 1.5 diesel focus returned about 52mpg in similar driving.

How light is the Avensis on diesel?

About 12c a litre in the difference though. FG have ignored this in the last few budgets when they should have been closing the gap incrementally.

ABC101

I think it is more to do with Euro emissions regulations which is putting the limit on Diesel engines.

If it is getting harder and harder to pass emission regulations then more R&D is required to make a engine to pass these emission standards i.e. Euro 7.

Therefore to recover these costs lots of sales are required.

But if buyers are turning away from diesels then the sales volume is not going to happen, the costs of R&D won't be recovered.

Therefore manufacturers will halt R&D + sales of that technology.

If the EU continues to introduce tougher emission rules i.e. Euro 8 or Euro9 etc then petrol cars will go the way of Diesel engines.

Once all ICE cars are banished then I suspect power stations will be next, then cattle etc:pac:

Joking aside, I would imagine those car manufacturers who do not have a hybrid technology will leave Europe altogether. Eventually it will only be the large manufacturers who survive, because they will have the sales volume to recap the R&D costs. The smaller makes such as Suzuki, Subaru, Honda will not be able to sell cars in Europe as they don't do the volume sales to recover costs.

Frankie Lee

Honda are not a smaller make. 5th worldwide in sales I think if the following link is correct.
https://focus2move.com/world-cars-brand-ranking/

Tuco88

Philb76 wrote: »

I was in new York couple of years ago and most of the taxis wer toyota camry hybrid actually a nice looking car and loads of rav 4s all hybrid maybe thats how r large cars will be here in a few years in fact I literally didn't come across one diesel car even all the vws and audis had tsi on the back of them

Same in Vancouver Canada when I was there. Alot of the pickups were Diesel but i did see a few VW diesels tho like jettas.

ABC101

Frankie Lee wrote: »

About 12c a litre in the difference though. FG have ignored this in the last few budgets when they should have been closing the gap incrementally.

In relation to taxing Diesel the same as Petrol, I think the horse has already bolted. As diesel % of new car sales continues to fall, and with several manufacturers already stating that they will not be producing a Diesel engine for Euro 7 regulations, taxing diesel will be taxing something which is in decline.

Edgar Morganroth had a paper stating that 500 million could be recovered annually by tax parity between diesel and Petrol. However with diesel sales falling the state may make some money in the short term, but in the long term I think it might not be worth it.

It's a bit like highly taxing cars which emit 220gm Co2/ Km, you can tax them as much as you want, but there are so few of them around, the state is not going to make money out of it.

ABC101

Frankie Lee wrote: »

Honda are not a smaller make. 5th worldwide in sales I think if the following link is correct.
https://focus2move.com/world-cars-brand-ranking/

Honda would not be a big seller in Ireland as far as I know. 3% perhaps? Subaru 1% perhaps?

What is causing all this change in Europe is the change in EU emissions.

Outside Europe, well one could make a car running on coal if you wanted to.

unkel

Philb76 wrote: »

I was in new York couple of years ago and most of the taxis wer toyota camry hybrid actually a nice looking car and loads of rav 4s all hybrid maybe thats how r large cars will be here in a few years in fact I literally didn't come across one diesel car even all the vws and audis had tsi on the back of them

And I bet you noticed the much better air quality compared to Dublin city centre?

We'll finally see the end of diesels in Europe in the next few years. Thousands of lives will be saved. Ireland had the highest percentage of diesel cars in the world, which is a shameful disgrace.

ABC101

Frankie Lee wrote: »

Honda are not a smaller make. 5th worldwide in sales I think if the following link is correct.
https://focus2move.com/world-cars-brand-ranking/

On the subject of Honda, I think they have dropped Diesel engine from two models in the next year.

I believe Subaru will not be selling a diesel in Europe from 2020 or 2022.

elperello

With such a large proportion of our national fleet being diesel powered an increase in the price of diesel at the pump will hit lower income people most. If they need a car they have little choice but to buy diesel because the alternatives are just not there in the secondhand market.

Better strategy to increase VRT on new diesels and incentivise EV and hybrid.

It will take 8-10 years to work through the cars that are on the road now. They cannot evaporate overnight.

unkel

ABC101 wrote: »

I believe Subaru will not be selling a diesel in Europe from 2020

I bet Subaru will be delighted. Like most other non EU car manufacturers, Subaru never made any diesels. And then these ecomentalist fools in the EU obsessed by CO2 emissions (harmless) forced companies like Subaru, who had made excellent petrol engines for decades, into making diesel engines because of the new chape diesel tax. They stopped selling petrol engined cars in Ireland 10 years ago, only offering diesels going forward

At the start it looked like Subaru had done a decent job. They even made their diesel engine horizontally opposed, just like their great petrol engines. But it wasn't a good engine after all, it was unreliable and prone to serious and expensive repairs

Philb76

unkel wrote: »

And I bet you noticed the much better air quality compared to Dublin city centre?

We'll finally see the end of diesels in Europe in the next few years. Thousands of lives will be saved. Ireland had the highest percentage of diesel cars in the world, which is a shameful disgrace.

There was and none of that smell like you get in european cities

bazz26

Not many drive diesel cars in the likes of LA, Mexico city or Beijing yet they have a huge problems with air pollution. They must produce all those EV lithium batteries over there.

ABC101

unkel wrote: »

I bet Subaru will be delighted. Like most other non EU car manufacturers, Subaru never made any diesels. And then these ecomentalist fools in the EU obsessed by CO2 emissions (harmless) forced companies like Subaru, who had made excellent petrol engines for decades, into making diesel engines because of the new chape diesel tax. They stopped selling petrol engined cars in Ireland 10 years ago, only offering diesels going forward

At the start it looked like Subaru had done a decent job. They even made their diesel engine horizontally opposed, just like their great petrol engines. But it wasn't a good engine after all, it was unreliable and prone to serious and expensive repairs

Subaru diesels did have some expensive failures, however I thought it was on their older Euro4 diesels. I’m open to correction but I believe Euro 5 and 6 engines are more reliable. Time will tell!

However, to get lower emissions the fuel economy must be increased. This normally means higher compression ratios and direct injection. This is becoming common on petrol engines. But there is a possibility that petrol engines with these technologies will also fall foul of emission regulations.

I believe it’s a numbers game. If emissions continue to tighten, the cost of meeting the standard rises. If one does not have the sales volume to recoup the R&D costs then the car manufacturer will not recoup their costs.

It’s not just the cost of R&D, but it’s the ratio of the cost of the engine as a % of the overall price of the vehicle. To meet the higher emission standards if the cost of the engine becomes a greater % of the overall sales price of the car then eventually a tipping point is reached. It becomes uneconomical to sell a Renault Clio for 17K if the engine alone is costing 50% of that 17K for example.

I believe Toyota and teaming up with Suzuki and Panasonic. Other Jap car manufacturers may join in to develop a petrol hybrid power train. Perhaps not Nissan who are already in with somebody else.

But I do believe some manufacturers will no longer sell cars in Europe after 2020, as they don’t have the sales volume to recover their costs.

Or we may see more consolidation as mentioned with Toyota / Suzuki / Panasonic above.

unkel

ABC101 wrote: »

I believe it’s a numbers game. If emissions continue to tighten, the cost of meeting the standard rises.

I believe it's more of a time game. 7 years from now and no cars with combustion engines can be sold in Norway. 8 years in the Netherlands. All other EU countries will follow, with even the slowest pupil in the class, Ireland, banning all petrols and diesels in 12 years time

hoodie6029

I've been driving a 2006 Prius for the last 6 months and I love it. Wouldn't go back to a diesel or petrol again. Getting 55mpg on my M50 commute. Doubt I'd get that with a diesel.

The switch to diesel was a kneejerk reaction by the EU to looming emissions standards.

I'm sure there are elements who will have their diesels pried from their cold dead hands, but most people will happily change to hybrid or electric once it's time to.

I doubt the price of diesel will increase anytime soon in order to keep hauliers and couriers in business.

freddie1970

i do a 110 km commute every day with my gf doing the same ..so if we both went electric we could save a fortune ...but there doesnt seem to be a decent larger electric car ..i like the ioniq took it for a test drive and all..then when i decide to look in an get one i was tould they didnt have any ...gave up after that

drunkmonkey

unkel wrote: »

I believe it's more of a time game. 7 years from now and no cars with combustion engines can be sold in Norway. 8 years in the Netherlands. All other EU countries will follow, with even the slowest pupil in the class, Ireland, banning all petrols and diesels in 12 years time

EV’s have a distance problem and an infrastructure problem, there’s no incentive for petrol station to move to electric I’m still struggling to see how forecourt owners are going to make money while at the same time having to extend their premises to handle to volume of cars that need to be charged at once, from a drivers perspective they distance is a problem for a lot of people in the country there simply not practical and the resale values reflect this.
Then we have the government how do they make money from charging points?

A lot of things have to fall into place before diesel or petrol are banned here.

unkel

drunkmonkey wrote: »

EV’s have a distance problem and an infrastructure problem

They don't really have either. And they most certainly will not in a few years time.

Budget EVs will be for sale this year that can go from anywhere in Ireland to anywhere else without charging. The infrastructure is mainly charging at home / work plus a network of fast chargers that we already have and which can easily be scaled up for very little money. Already foreign companies are installing fast chargers in Ireland at zero cost to the tax payer. It is very easy to see how this will be extremely lucrative. You can charge 3 times the domestic day rate (and pay less than half) by selling electricity. The margin on petrol / diesel in contrast is only a few percent. Plus huge margins on coffees etc. while people wait for the charge. Goldmine.

Tim76

cisk wrote: »

The Japanese manufacturers were always behind ze Germans when it came to Diesel tech.

*defeat device tech

Idbatterim

Vicxas wrote: »

http://www.thejournal.ie/toyota-diesel-cars-3886902-Mar2018/

Diesel is now a dirty word in the mouth of the masses.

So the question is now, whats the next car you'll buy?

ok. Diesel probably still makes sense for many, even as their Next car. Assuming they couldn’t cate less about the health effects, which most of them obviously don’t. We live in a country that never takes any action that might be unpopular. This isn’t the Uk or Germany or most other properly run countries ...

Zubeneschamali

hoodie6029 wrote: »

The switch to diesel was a kneejerk reaction by the EU to looming emissions standards.

Actually, I think it was a disguised protectionist measure. Euro governments pushed diesel fuel through taxation, and by pure coincidence, Euro manufacturers had the best diesel engine tech, meaning Japanese and American cars were at a disadvantage in the Euro market.

I have a new Octavia diesel myself - with the mileage I do I'd be mad to buy anything else right now, but I hope that in 10 years time EVs will be a real thing and I can buy one.

unkel

Idbatterim wrote: »

We live in a country that never takes any action that might be unpopular. This isn’t the Uk or Germany or most other properly run countries ...

Well, the government has just decided to ban the sale of all petrol and diesel cars from 2030. That might look like a very long time away to most people, but I would urge anyone thinking of buying a brand new diesel car, to give that a long hard thought first.

beefburrito

A friend of mine bought a 2018 petrol corolla Luna, he said he could literally see the dial on the fuel gauge dropping at 120 on the motorway from Limerick to Dublin...

His 2014 d4d was twice as economical.

He's a good driver, stuck it to high gear on the flat....

Cee-Jay-Cee

unkel wrote: »

And I bet you noticed the much better air quality compared to Dublin city centre?

We'll finally see the end of diesels in Europe in the next few years. Thousands of lives will be saved. Ireland had the highest percentage of diesel cars in the world, which is a shameful disgrace.

And driven by low tax costs and absolutely zero to do with anyone giving a sh about the environment.

unkel

beefburrito wrote: »

A friend of mine bought a 2018 petrol corolla Luna, he said he could literally see the dial on the fuel gauge dropping at 120 on the motorway from Limerick to Dublin...

His 2014 d4d was twice as economical.

He's a good driver, stuck it to high gear on the flat....

I've spent about €100 to fuel my cars over the last 15k km. Can your friend beat that for being economical?

bazz26

unkel wrote: »

I've spent about €100 to fuel my cars over the last 15k km. Can your friend beat that for being economical?

By all means enjoy it while it lasts but it won't be cheap to own or run an EV long term. Revenue from motorists is a certainty, all this talk of moving people over to EVs is very similar to the the talk of moving people over to "greener" diesels 10 years ago. Revenue has to be maintained and also the entire energy grid landscape will have to change or be upgraded to facilitate the entire country running EVs, this costs money which means then need for more taxes.

Of course by then the next generation of creative thinkers and policy makers out there will be starting to plant the seed in people's heads that EVs are actually bad and something else is better for you. It's just creative thinking to sustain and drive our economies in the form of taxation through mass consumerism ~ wash, rinse and repeat.

unkel

unkel wrote: »

I've spent about €100 to fuel my cars over the last 15k km. Can your friend beat that for being economical?

Yea but how much did your car cost?
You'll be a long time get 25/30k back in fuel savings.

unkel

BrownFinger wrote: »

Yea but how much did your car cost?
You'll be a long time get 25/30k back in fuel savings.

The depreciation on my brand new car + motor tax + fuel is a lot cheaper than the motor tax + fuel on my old worthless banger that I scrapped even though I do low miles.

Cheaper to buy brand new than to drive a banger

unkel

bazz26 wrote: »

all this talk of moving people over to EVs is very similar to the the talk of moving people over to "greener" diesels 10 years ago. Revenue has to be maintained

Revenue was not maintained when people moved to diesel. Revenue dropped by at least a billion a year in lower motor tax and lower VRT rates. This was never recovered (from motorists)

bazz26 wrote: »

the entire energy grid landscape will have to change or be upgraded to facilitate the entire country running EVs, this costs money which means then need for more taxes.

Not really, the extra investments in the grid are really quite low. EVs charge mostly at night time, using a lot of wind energy. This country can be (close to) 100% renewable electricity with minimal investment (from the tax payer). Remember we are starting to pay massive emissions fines because we exceed our agreed emissions. I'd rather we spend this money on investments in our grid / renewable electricity than spend it on fines that we get no benefit for, don't you?

drunkmonkey

unkel wrote: »

They don't really have either. And they most certainly will not in a few years time.

Budget EVs will be for sale this year that can go from anywhere in Ireland to anywhere else without charging. The infrastructure is mainly charging at home / work plus a network of fast chargers that we already have and which can easily be scaled up for very little money. Already foreign companies are installing fast chargers in Ireland at zero cost to the tax payer. It is very easy to see how this will be extremely lucrative. You can charge 3 times the domestic day rate (and pay less than half) by selling electricity. The margin on petrol / diesel in contrast is only a few percent. Plus huge margins on coffees etc. while people wait for the charge. Goldmine.

I don't see how it can every be lucrative for Government, my point with the garages is they won't be able to handle the volume of cars coming for charging without expanding and a lot of them don't have the space so it would need huge capital expansion that i'm not convinced they'll make back on coffee.

There's no goldemine here and if there is the Government aren't seeing it, I certainly can't.

There has been 0 effort to get businesses over to Petrol or EV/PHEV besides that 12mt bik offer, if it was for 5 years i'd probably have a look but it would want to include a lot more options like PHEV than it currently does and then something like a 530d is still a better buy than a 530e, not to mention the anxiety that comes with forgetting your charging cable when your in a hurry.

I'd buy a petrol in the morning, but it makes no sense, it would want to be cheaper to fill up than diesel and the same tax and vat rebates that apply to diesel. A EV/PHEV makes even less sense.
(If I was living in a city doing mainly city diving with the odd spin down the country it's doable but outside citys or people doing a lot of mileage it's not practical yet).

beefburrito

Well my 160bhp passat does 54 mpg.

I do drive a lot but it's quite good for a 2L

cnocbui

Frankie Lee wrote: »

About 12c a litre in the difference though. FG have ignored this in the last few budgets when they should have been closing the gap incrementally.

They didn't create the gap incrementally, so why should they close it incrementally? They are criminals for not reversing all the pro diesel bias taxes over a year ago.