Cold Spell Late Feb/ Early March Technical Discussion only MOD NOTE POST #1

BLIZZARD7

GEM has us buried midweek

BLIZZARD7

GFS control run, likewise. Something tells me we are going to remember this week for a longtime.

vizualpics

Akrasia wrote: »

With the lake effect in operation over the irish sea, is there any chance of more localised lake effect snow to the west of places like Lough Derg, Lough Corrib, Lough Ree etc or are they all much too small in Ireland for that kind of thing?

There was streamers off Lough Neagh from a NE in 2010 also around Sligo Bay into Mayo.

George Sunsnow

You need at least 70kms of open water so No

PukkaStukka

George Sunsnow wrote: »

You need at least 70kms of open water so No

Not unless there's a great big RHI boiler on the go under the Lough

PukkaStukka

Met Eireann posted this today

http://www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=498

space2ground1

ECM on the way!

Cork981

Looking good for Monday



Tuesday

BLIZZARD7

Lovely ECM at +96

Soccarboy11

+120hrs





very nice!

Neddyusa

George Sunsnow wrote: »

You need at least 70kms of open water so No

However. .....
In early Dec 2010 (or maybe 2009 - hazy memories) there was two nights where Irish Sea steamers coming on an ENE wind had almost died out to the east of Lough Ree but then re-intensified over the lake dropping 5 to 6 inches widely here west of the lake, while to the east of Lough Reé only 2 to 3 in fell.

So while it might not be enough of a fetch to create showers, in certain conditions Lough Reé at least was able to put an extra pep in them

Daniel2590

ECM at +144h is gorgeous

BLIZZARD7

A chart for Cork, Very rare to see that depth of Cold in Ireland, never mind the south coast -

PukkaStukka

Neddyusa wrote: »

However. .....
In early Dec 2010 (or maybe 2009 - hazy memories) there was two nights where Irish Sea steamers coming on an ENE wind had almost died out to the east of Lough Ree but then re-intensified over the lake dropping 5 to 6 inches widely here west of the lake, while to the east of Lough Reé only 2 to 3 in fell.

So while it might not be enough of a fetch to create showers, in certain conditions Lough Reé at least was able to put an extra pep in them

But what is the temperature Of the water in the Lough? Would it not be cooler than the sea??

Daniel2590

Looks like a huge upgrade at +168h (there is a 12 hour difference though)

0z



12z

snowstorm445

Southern England looks like it’ll be getting pasted next Friday. Some good snow over here as well in such a setup, for sure.

nacho libre

It seems the lows are being forced to distrupt, my god if they stall some places will get buried. M.T. Craniums snow totals will likely come to pass, at least on high ground. Anybody want to guess the total amount of snow on the Wicklow Mountains by next Sunday?

Soccarboy11

well then..





surprised kermit isn't here!

Bejubby

nacho libre wrote: »

It seems the lows are being forced to distrupt, my god if they stall some places will get buried. M.T. Craniums snow totals will likely come to pass, at least on high ground. Anybody want to guess the total amount of snow on the Wicklow Mountains by next Sunday?

1.5metres.
4 meters in drift areas🀣

Daniel2590

+192h

Oneiric 3

GFSJ 12z 850 hPa temp forecast (extracted from grib) for Dublin over the next 8 days.



Impressive.

typhoony

I was trying to find the jet stream and it's gone missing, never seen it that far south.

nacho libre

It brings a tear to the eye seeing these absoultely incredible ECM charts.. i'm running out of ways to try and describe how amazing this all is. If these charts comes to fruition, i doubt i'll see its equivalent again in my lifetime. It really is a special time right now. Wow!!

Oneiric 3

To compare the current GFS prep and 850 temps run with the ERA reanalysis for the east coast snowy periods in both January 82 and January 87

1982: Lots of frontal snow, though 850 temps fairly moderate, if not marginal






1987: Prep more in the form of showers, with an impressive 850 temp profile, getting down to below -15 at times:





Forecast for next week: prep (showery in nature) and 850 temps almost on par with that of 1987, and considering that this chart is for March 1st, and not January, like the previous episodes, this makes the current forecast profile it all the more impressive.




All images from the Icelandic Met Office.

Gaoth Laidir

redsteveireland wrote: »

That could lead to some issues with flooding in the aftermath, no?

The total liquid equivalent falls projected for the next week are only around 10 mm so that's not much water when melted.

Donegal Storm

Latter parts of the ECMWF would be perfect for extreme low temperatures, calm and cold over snowfields with little to no Atlantic influence, interesting to see how low it might get.

The all time March record is -17.2C in 1947, little hope of beating that but most station records are between -5C and -10C so quite a few of those would definitely be under threat if the current forecasts play out

Oneiric 3

redsteveireland wrote: »

That could lead to some issues with flooding in the aftermath, no?

Really only if there is a sudden thaw due to a sudden warm surge. If the temps only gradually climb after this spell, then flooding may not be much of an issue.

mickger844posts

I’m running out of superlatives for all this amazing output. ECM 0z another stonker of a run right through. With these super low uppers and a warm Irish Sea the trains of steamers should be never ending. Roll on Monday and let’s get this party started.

Meteorite58

Early predictions for possible snow and how it might look developing. Not much precipitation showing up yet from the models in the early days. All depends if you get under one of those streamers. I wouldn't take these charts as definite, they will change over the coming days in track and intensity .

JCX BXC

Rodar08 wrote: »

Can I ask when the next charts will be roughly and when Kermits update will be? I haven’t left this phone out of my hand for over an hour even though I know it’s an hour away at least

Rollout of GFS should be well underway in just over 2 hours. (Should begin around 9:30).