Saturday 10th Feb

Francie Barrett

Newbury 3:35 - Betfair Hurdle day and this looks like a cracking renewal with many having great chances. My eye can't help but being drawn to the former Cheltenham champion bumper winner, Moon Racer. Not quite sure what happened with this horse last year, putting in a number of below par performances being pulled up and well off the lead on another occasion. At a huge 33/1 price and with the benefit of the first time tongue tie and wind op, if this horse can come close to capturing the sort of ability it showed in the past, then I think it should there or thereabouts at the close tomorrow. I have backed this one at 33/1 e/w with 5 places courtesy of bet365.

hawaii501

Another forgotten one who could have been anything is Barters Hill going back over hurdles in the 1-50 at Newbury.
Bumper form was excellent and also hurdle form was veey good losing to UKWIH at Chelt. Never took to the bigger obstacles as was a poor jumper.
Entered for stayers, this could be a prep run and at 3/1 is a fair price if retains any sort of ability

Francie Barrett

While not a huge price, I think an Irish trainer who is really going somewhere has a cracking chance in the 4:15 at Uttoxeter. Only five years old and close to bottom weight with the benefit of a much improved run over similar heavy conditions that it will face tomorrow, I think Ejayteekay and Castafiore will be the last two battling it out at the close tomorrow, and I will be hanging my hat on Gavin Cromwell's horse as it has the benefit of carrying over a stone less than its most likely challenger. 5/2 best price now, could go much lower tomorrow.

WickIow Brave

3:35 Newbury
Bleu Et Rouge 14/1 e/w
Backed him in the Ladbroke at Ascot and he pulled his brains out off a steady pace and he met traffic aswell. I thought he ran quite well all things considered. He'll appreciate the ground more than most of his rivals here and a faster gallop will help him settle. I think his mark is lenient and I think he'll have improved from his run at Ascot. This is a really competitive field though.

Francie Barrett

Lingfield 3:30 - Reckon Barye is a bit of a plot job here, just scraping into this grade off of top weight. Dropping down into class 4 company after competing off a class 2 level at much higher handicap rating but with a 7lb claimer chucked onboard this time. Three time winner here at Lingfield and twice over the distance, it will know what is needed to win this. The money has come for this even at this early stage, but I am still happy to have a small bet at 4/1 as I think it should scoot in.

danganabu

As I have posted on a different thread really like Irish Roe in the Betfair, think she has upwards of a stone in hand, She officially has 11lbs in hand and I think there is further improvement again looking at her last two runs. To be fair in a race like this you need at least 8 or 9 lbs in hand and it maybe a case that the handicaper over estimated her performance against Maria's Benefit but even if e has slightly I think she is great value and would be very dissapointed if she isnt at least placed.

Barters Hill in the 1.50 on his comeback run looks too big going on his previous form gets in here off a very generous 142 if retaining his ability he could romp in, also like Dubai Way in the last at Warwick, its a competitve looking handicap on the face of it but I think this handicap debutant has been given a very fair mark.

NaiveMelodies

Agree on Bleu Et Rouge, more to come from him.
Divin Bere also takes my interest at the prices. In the notebook for Cheltenham and didn't realise he was out tomorrow. Surprised if he doesn't come on a tonne from his first run for Nicholls(second stint in the yard). Plenty of smart form from France and 40s could be too big.

Mr321

Misteron 20/1 for me in the 3.35

Slattsy

The betfair hurdle looks as tricky a handicap hurdle I can remember.

I like Spiritofthegames at a massive 25/1. Drops down in trip to 2 miles but Newbury will suit him and he'll be staying well to the line. I think his 2nd lto is good form, in my book anyway, so I think he can get into a place.

Kayf Grace is my other. I know Henderson really rated this horse as a bumper and had looked good. Eased back into things this year and won snuggle enough lto. This has almost certainly been the plan and I thought it would be favourite. 12s better than I thought so I'll take that.

Lucy8080

Another shout out for Barters Hill here. Took 11/4 yesterday... reckon it's either a shoe in or a dead loss.

But if it is anything near old form, 3/1 or 11/4 will look like a gift in hindsight.

I've had a middling bet on it... either a happy return or a calculated/acceptable loss. Worth a punt I reckon.

posturingpat

I think you Barters hill fans are very brave backing him. I don't think he'll be knocked about to win this 1. A mark of 142(maybe even 140 with a 3rd or 4th place finish) would be great for something like the Coral cup and todays race is only worth 12 grand, surely not worth blowing a mark for so will be a bit to work on.
I like Bleu et rouge in the big one, travelled very keen last time but should hopefully get a better pace to aim at today and is well handicapped, and i have had a good e/w bet on him, might have a saver on Moon racer too, he has similar comments applying to him as Barters hill but the fact he has the tongue tie added to the windop and the money on offer he could be further along the line fitness wise.

Fully expect Politologue to give Altior his fill of it today, just want a bit bigger price before i'd consider a bet.

jimjamcos

Benie De Dieux looks likely to touch evens in Mares Chase at Naas. Looks big to me.

Altior will smash Politilogue.

Barters Hill probably worth a risk.

Duke the Champs 4.10 looks worth a bet based on last run behind Rocklander - conditions will suit.

Pym EW 4.40 in what looks a massively hot bumper. Was high enough up on Supreme list before a setback, Henderson seems to really like him so has to be worth a risk in a bumper at 10/1!

Nulty

Is it not just silly to not back Irish Roe in the Betfair Hurdle. Officially 11lbs well in after finishing second to Maria's Benefit in a G2 mares hurdle. That was a truely run race and Irish Roe jumped well enough. 

Alletix and Total Recall are the last thrown in horses I knew were going to win that I didn't back. Will Irish Roe be the next?

posturingpat

Nulty wrote: »

Is it not just silly to not back Irish Roe in the Betfair Hurdle. Officially 11lbs well in after finishing second to Maria's Benefit in a G2 mares hurdle. That was a truely run race and Irish Roe jumped well enough. 

Alletix and Total Recall are the last thrown in horses I knew were going to win that I didn't back. Will Irish Roe be the next?

Do you think she deserves the 11lb rise? I wouldn't be so sure. She's been running in single figure fields and is now in a big field handicap which could be quite daunting for a mare unless they're special. I'll be disappointed if she's in the 1st 3.

posturingpat

jimjamcos wrote: »

Benie De Dieux looks likely to touch evens in Mares Chase at Naas. Looks big to me.

Altior will smash Politilogue.

Barters Hill probably worth a risk.

Duke the Champs 4.10 looks worth a bet based on last run behind Rocklander - conditions will suit.

Pym EW 4.40 in what looks a massively hot bumper. Was high enough up on Supreme list before a setback, Henderson seems to really like him so has to be worth a risk in a bumper at 10/1!

If she gets to Evs it's well worth a bet. I just about talked myself out of backing her at odds on last night, don't think i could reject the evens. She could be a star.

Nulty

posturingpat wrote: »

Nulty wrote: »

Is it not just silly to not back Irish Roe in the Betfair Hurdle. Officially 11lbs well in after finishing second to Maria's Benefit in a G2 mares hurdle. That was a truely run race and Irish Roe jumped well enough. 

Alletix and Total Recall are the last thrown in horses I knew were going to win that I didn't back. Will Irish Roe be the next?

Do you think she deserves the 11lb rise? I wouldn't be so sure. She's been running in single figure fields and is now in a big field handicap which could be quite daunting for a mare unless they're special. I'll be disappointed if she's in the 1st 3.

Yeah the field size is a concern.

As for the rating, all horses finished where they should have in that mares G2. She beat a 139 horse 7 lengths off 134, and beaten by a 152 mare by 3/4l getting 2lbs. Marias Benefit might not have run to that mark but the rest of the race looks pretty solid and Irish Roe has only just been beaten. As I said the race was run at a decent pace. I think the rise is fair. Between 8-10lbs well in I'd say

posturingpat

Nulty wrote: »

Yeah the field size is a concern.

As for the rating, all horses finished where they should have in that mares G2. She beat a 139 horse 7 lengths off 134, and beaten by a 152 mare by 3/4l getting 2lbs. Marias Benefit might not have run to that mark but the rest of the race looks pretty solid and Irish Roe has only just been beaten. As I said the race was run at a decent pace. I think the rise is fair. Between 8-10lbs well in I'd say

Personally think she was flattered but time will tell. I'd say if herself and Marias benefit met off their updated ratings (145Ir and 149 Mb) MB would dispose of her easily given any kind of proper run race, young Gethings got the horn last week and near made the best horse get beat i think.
As ever time will tell.

RivetingRoger

Backed Jenkins, Barters Hill, Altior and Benie des Dieux

Cant have Native River at the price after such an absence

Cant not have Altior despite what I said about NR!

hawaii501

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Backed Jenkins, Barters Hill, Altior and Benie des Dieux

Cant have Native River at the price after such an absence

Cant not have Altior despite what I said about NR!

Barters Hill coming off a longer absence than both.
Think Native River is at a backable price now at evens. Best horse in the race.
Nice prep run and will win this before going into 2nd fav for Gold Cup.

mountai

Beware Byrnes in Bumper Naas??

krustydoyle

I've backed these today

King Uther 1.50
North Hill Harvey 2.40
Kerosin 2.45
Room to Roam 3.20
Reigning Supreme 4.10
Polished Steel 4.55

Small ew bets on these in The Betfair

Jenkins
Verdana Blue
Coeur Blimey

dk6dk6

I'm another Irish Roe fan in the betfair, very hard to see not been placed.

A half fit Altior will put Politilogue away easily imo. Really looking forward to watching that race.

Also like Castafiore in the 4.15 Uttoxeter today.

BumperD

The final race at newbury today looks really interesting, most of the field are unbeaten and even might bite owners have a first time out winner in there. Whatever comes home in this will be festival bound. The two Anthony Honeyball runners are ones I'd be siding with Acey Milan has the better form of the two but you could argue his other runner has more scope for improvement. Worth watching.

supremenovice

3:35 Newbury
Divin Bere drifting from 25s to 40s. Very unusual for a Paul Nicholls runner.
Im tempted to go in each way now.

longshotvalue

Haydock 3:35
This looks a bad EW race with everything having a chance. Im going with 3 tiny in bets on big priced outsiders just in case.
Moon Racer's form is very good for this race and he looks a big price to return to form after a break. I like Project Bluebook and as such have to like Nietzsche of a workable mark both being possible improvers with this race in mind.
1/2 Point win Moon Racer 40/1 365/hills and others
1/2 Point win Neitzche 50/1 365 wills and others
1/2 Point win Project Bluebook 66/1 Generally

BumperD

I can see Barters Hill needing the run & tiring over this trip today. He has a huge frame & I'd imagine a run would be needed to get him fit.

Henderson seems worried for Altior just there on RUK - wouldn't surprise me if he's also beaten.

deeks

I’m gonna chance a few quid ew on Project Bluebook in the big one at 66/1. The form of his fourth in the Fred winter off 138 and subsequent win in a grade 2 juvenile race at fairyhouse looks pretty decent and I’d be hopeful he’d improve on his run at Cheltenham when he was coming back from a bit of a break. Loads in with chances in this so looking for a bit of value.

Nulty

supremenovice wrote: »

3:35 Newbury
Divin Bere drifting from 25s to 40s. Very unusual for a Paul Nicholls runner.
Im tempted to go in each way now.

Only one horse has won a race in Britain or Ireland this season coming out of the Fred Winter.

That's enough to put me off

BumperD

Misterton in betfair hurdle 22/1 ew. Was an excellent 2nd in the Greatwood Hurdle with some really good ones in behind. Up only 5lb for that effort if you look what Jenkins who was behind him that day has achieved that could look very generous later this afternoon. Jenkins seems to be now living up to his promise shown when he started out his career - he was vying for favouritism at one stage for the supreme a couple of seasons back in the ap market-

BumperD

Going to chance a few euro ew on the mare indian stream 40/1 in the next at Newbury. She has some good form over hurdles ran 5th to apples jade at the festival, will stay the trip. I may have this completely wrong but I don't fancy barters hill at all today.

Edit - Updated Price she seems friendless in betting...

abarkie

aidankkk wrote: »

Haydock 3:35
This looks a bad EW race with everything having a chance. Im going with 3 tiny in bets on big priced outsiders just in case.
Moon Racer's form is very good for this race and he looks a big price to return to form after a break. I like Project Bluebook and as such have to like Nietzsche of a workable mark both being possible improvers with this race in mind.
1/2 Point win Moon Racer 40/1 365/hills and others
1/2 Point win Neitzche 50/1 365 wills and others
1/2 Point win Project Bluebook 66/1 Generally

Haydock 3:35 ??

Surely you mean Newbury?

Didactic Ninja

that will teach me for backing sapphire du rheu

prettyboy81

Impressive & nice warm up ahead of Gold Cup for Native River.

BumperD

Going to take on Altior with a small win bet polilogue

supremenovice

The Arkle is shaping up nicely after that win by Saint Calvados.
The only negative would be if Aidan Coleman is retained - just one Cheltenham Festival winner in his career.

BumperD

Altior will come on for that.

Didactic Ninja

that'll teach me for backing politologue

paddy no 11

Altior is a thing of beauty

prettyboy81

Altior v Min let’s hope they bought arrive for Champion Chase.

Rematch over fences!

abarkie

prettyboy81 wrote: »

Altior v Min let’s hope they bought arrive for Champion Chase.

Rematch over fences!

What about Douvan (assuming it get's there) and Fox Norton?

BumperD

He looks unbeatable again next month

Slattsy

Be interesting to see how that goes if Douvan was 100%.

BorneTobyWilde

Silver Streak 14-1 BS 6 places
3.35

I like this ones chances , has finished ahead of quite a few of these last time out.
Should be thereabouts again.

NaiveMelodies

Some jumping porn there from Altior. A pleasure to watch.


Native River soundest each way bet of the festival.

Clique

abarkie wrote: »

What about Douvan (assuming it get's there) and Fox Norton?

Wouldn't be worrying about Fox Norton anyway, nothing suggest he will get near Altior. Altior will come on for that and Douvan is an unknown having not run for a year going into the race. Min seems his only plausible challenger on this years form and I'd be suprised if he beat Altior. He is a superb specimen to watch

NaiveMelodies

If anyone wins Champion Chase handily they iz special.

4068ac1elhodqr

Through the process of elimination (based on one of the many books of knowledge),
that indicates the BFH winner shall be 7yo, 11-1.



The only closest matches are a couple of likely runners (+/- 1-2lb).
Irish Roe @10 / Waterlord @17

As it's 6pl will also try a luckydip with Remiluc@51,
(in an treble e/w) with a couple of lads across over in the golf stick ball, whilst 4pl 1/4 exist going into final rounds.

Will likely also include selections (tbc) from enhancements in 16.35 Lingfield (4pl also via Sky) in the acca arrays.

Worth keeping an eye out for hyperinflation and stock corrections also...

posturingpat

Altior very impressive and will he very hard beat in March. Wouldn't give up on Politologue though, hell prob be my e/w bet in it. Will have hated making his own running and got close into most of the fences which isn't usually his style.

BorneTobyWilde

Silver Streak fell, great
Poppy Kay for me now

prettyboy81

abarkie wrote: »

What about Douvan (assuming it get's there) and Fox Norton?

Fox Norton is bound for the Cheap Airline race. Douvan we can only wish a lot of smoke & mirrors with the horse.

posturingpat

So close but yet so far with Blue et rouge. That would've been Cheltenham covered