Is the US dollar finally going home?

realitykeeper

The ultimate collapse of the US dollar will happen when the US stock markets fail and more QE is needed to prop them up. We already see the US stock markets setting record highs on a regular basis and how sustainable is that? As for their bond markets, the raising of US interest rates will see China dumping US bonds at an ever increasing rate.

In any case, the increasing US interest rates is obviously being seen as too little, too late for the US dollar which seems to be falling despite the rising rates. Obviously the US Fed has cried wolf once too often and currency investors don`t believe they will increase rates as much or as soon as they are pretending they will.

Given this background, I was amused when Trump said no more money for Pakistan or Palestine and also by Apple`s decision to pay 38 billion dollars tax in the US. It never occurred to me that the mass influx of trillions of worthless dollars back to the US would be precipitated by the Americans themselves. Make no mistake, the Americans will get their money back and how !!! When that happens, a plastic cup from China will cost them a hundred dollars.

Europe is a bit more complicated because of Germany. I think the next crisis will see the EU break apart because the Germans and other Nordic countries will not want more QE while Ireland and med countries will.

Am I wrong?

amcalester

Yes.

realitykeeper

amcalester wrote: »

Yes.

Can you elaborate?

Cookie_Monster

you really love the old doom and gloom scenarios don't you?
Must have been disappointing that the world didn't collapse back in November like you said it would.

The above sound like more of the same ill informed doom-mongering

realitykeeper

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

you really love the old doom and gloom scenarios don't you?
Must have been disappointing that the world didn't collapse back in November like you said it would.

The above sound like more of the same ill informed doom-mongering

To be early is to be punctual, I am not wrong. I note you have made no attempt to proffer a counter argument which in itself adds credence to the dollar is dying perspective.

* I am extremely glad the economy of the western world has not collapsed yet, I would not have been ready if it crashed in November, indeed I still am not ready for such a scenario. It would be unimaginably bad.

Wanderer78

You might find Jim Richards work interesting

Mongfinder General

Fiat currencies eventually fail. Your point is moot but not so far fetched. As long as products, oil being a big one, are traded in dollars, the Yanks will get away with printing money as long as their economy grows.The rest of the world will continue to do business with the U.S. because a collapse in trade will have a severe impact on these countries, such as Ireland.

The rise of crypto currency is a threat to money, not just the dollar. However, it will probably face restrictions in most jurisdictions - the role of central banks in controlling the money supply won't be usurped.

You appear to have a rocket in your pocket of epic proportions for a financial Armageddon. However, I'd like to read your thoughts on something closer to home - the Italian economy.

NIMAN

Good to hear from you again realitykeeper.

You've been quiet since your Fatima thread.

You have yet to get one prediction right, so I'm going to have a stab and say you'll be wrong on this one again.

You need to stop read conspiracy websites and get out a bit.

amcalester

realitykeeper wrote: »

Can you elaborate?

Yes.

realitykeeper

amcalester wrote: »

Yes.

I don`t believe you.

Cookie_Monster

realitykeeper wrote: »

I note you have made no attempt to proffer a counter argument which in itself adds credence to the dollar is dying perspective.

that's some jump in logic!
I made no counter argument because your argument (as usual) is so ridiculous it's not even worth considering.

amcalester

realitykeeper wrote: »

I don`t believe you.

That’s ok. Now you know what we think when we read your posts.

mountai

Then dont read them

amcalester

mountai wrote: »

Then dont read them

I said I don’t believe his posts, not that I don’t enjoy reading them.

mountai

So, , like a certain breed of poster , you enjoy being sarcastic and think cryptic smart arsed comments are clever .

amcalester

No, not particularly. There was nothing sarcastic or cryptic about my answers.

He asked a question and I answered it.

realitykeeper

amcalester wrote: »

No, not particularly. There was nothing sarcastic or cryptic about my answers.

He asked a question and I answered it.

Inadequately.

realitykeeper

Mongfinder General wrote: »

As long as products, oil being a big one, are traded in dollars, the Yanks will get away with printing money as long as their economy grows.The rest of the world will continue to do business with the U.S. because a collapse in trade will have a severe impact on these countries, such as Ireland.

Your latter point pertains to normal economic circumstances. Major economic downturns result in trade decreasing despite the fact that trade is desirable.

The days of the petro-dollar are coming to an end. Things are changing in the middle-east. For example, Saudi Arabia are now looking trying to emanate the UAE, in other words they are finally beginning to look beyond oil as their sole revenue source and are planning a future, post oil economy. That said, the Saudis (backed by the US) are trying to get control of Yemen, as is Iran (backed by Russia). Why these powerful countries are fighting to control poor Yemen which has little or no oil, is a mystery but somehow I suspect that somehow oil is the main motivation.

realitykeeper

Well, five years on from the original post, it looks like various trade blocks are now developing their own intra trade currencies.

Argentina/Brazil have started on this process. So has the east African community. China and Argentina are starting to trade in each others currencies. The BRICS+ are moving away from the US dollar. Russia prefers gold to the US dollar and is doing more direct trade with China, Turkey and India. The Middle East (specifically the Saudis) are now prepared to trade in currencies other than the US dollar.

I am not saying the US dollar is going to stop being the world reserve currency just yet. The move away from the US dollar could potentially take decades. But, I think it is definately happening.

Fathom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120151477#Comment_120151477

The US dollar remains the world’s reserve currency since about 1944, when it replaced the UK’s sterling. It is unlikely to be replaced anytime soon (Reuters 28 March 2022). When it is replaced, such actions may result in a fragmented global economy.

This could destabilize world trade, especially for LOC trade transactions between different banks of different countries.

This may also exacerbate the volatility of fragmented currency exchanges against each other, raising non-value added costs eventually passed onto the consumer.

Then again, I am not qualified to model, explain, or predict the future of the dollar. Not my area of research. So my anecdotal comments here might or might not be worth 2 cents.

cson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120151477#Comment_120151477

And 6 years on, your original take is still very wrong.

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121536379#Comment_121536379

We shall see.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121538104#Comment_121538104

We'll check back in another 6 and see what the story is.

Don't worry realitykeeper. People like yourself have predicted the apocalypse since the beginning of time. One day you'll be right.

coolbeans

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2057832264/is-the-us-dollar-finally-going-home

Post is from 2018 and it's now 2023. I think i can say the following: I've read your posts and note your self regarding username. The conclusion I've come to is that you're the epitome of the Dunning Kruger effect in boards.ie user form. You're very confident in your ideas but in reality, Realitykeeper, you're massively ignorant.

realitykeeper

Actually I, like so many others who have predicted the dollar's demise have all been spot on. Just compare what a dollar would buy sixty years ago with what it buys today.

The rise of BRICS and the geopolitical rift between the west and the rest of the world is hastening this process.

I doubt we will need even three more years to see the dollar used in more imaginative ways. Toilet paper for instance.