Donald Trump Presidency discussion thread III

Akrasia

Really Interested wrote: »

From Jan 20th 2017 to Jan 26th 2018 the Dow rose about 6,800 points in the last 2 days of trading it has lost about 1/3 of that gain the next few days are going to be interestiing.

BTW today is the biggest drop since 2008!

Trump's new Fed chair only started on friday. The markets were already artificially boosted with many of the biggest corporations 'investing' their profits in lucrative (for the Shareholders and executives with share options) share buyback schemes. Trump's tax cuts poured petrol onto a roaring fire and the traders, who were already skittish because of overvalued stocks panicked at the potential for a change to interest rates

Samaris

Gbear wrote: »

I definitely think we're better placed than most to resist this nonsense.
There's some populist things we fall for hook line and sinker, but we're a long way from from the UK or the US and it would be far more difficult for pseudo-fascists to push our whole political discourse to the right as they have in other countries.

We're too mild-mannered, boring and centrist, and our democratic system has thus far been resistant to extremism, with even relatively mild far-left parties incapable of getting much support and there being nothing significant to the right of Fine Gael.

We also don't have anywhere near as contentious an immigration issue.

I'd say not having a colonial past (or rather being on the wrong end of one) gives us a better culture to deal with it as well. You can't, I think, have a history of emigration as we have and show the same sort of aloofness, myopia and isolationist view of the world as the UK or the US. Being small and weak probably contributes to that as well.

That doesn't mean we're immune to it and in the general thrust, we're probably not much, if at all, less xenophobic or easy to manipulate, than people from the US or the UK, but the truth is that most people in those countries don't support the likes of Trump, nor do they support the far right, or even the Tories.

In Ireland it's just harder for them to get into power.
They're going to be trying to make hay in the abortion referendum - it's the exact kind of issue they would use to infiltrate the political system, but they're much further behind in terms of having a political platform like the now oligarchal Republican party or even the proven fertile soil for the far right in the UK.

They also only have until May to effectively screw with us over abortion and they have to figure out what makes us tick first. So far, judging by, say, certain Irexit comments from British commentators that should know better but plainly don't understand Ireland at all, the Russians don't have a great deal of hope (I sincerely hope).

circadian

I think these forces are working hard in relation to the abortion debate and muddying the waters. It's very easy to spot the hard-line soap boxing on both sides via social media/forums etc.

Ireland leaving Europe? Farage is having a laugh. He's just trying to stir the pot here, he knows that we all know where we get our bread buttered. As a nation it'd be suicide to leave the EU.

Here's a video of Trump giving a speech about how great he's doing economically only to be but cut off, by Fox, to report the market drops.

https://youtu.be/Fr8BiBnQxBE

ECO_Mental

:DThis made me laugh this morning, Trump Lawyers are afraid that Trump will lie if he interviewed by Mueller, No **** Sherlock.....

The dog on the street knows that Trump is mentally incapable of telling the truth its a medical condition of his....... Narcissistic Sociopath

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/05/politics/donald-trump-robert-mueller-interview/index.html

Mueller and his lads will run rings around him in an interview but no doubt he weasel his way out of it. Aided and abetted by the good old GOP.

Professor Moriarty

US trade deficit at a nine year high. Keep an eye on The Donald's Twitter account. He'll be along shortly to take responsibility.

demfad

aloyisious wrote: »

Was Nigel's Irexit visit over the weekend the herald of things to come, seeing as he was an "advisor" to Don?

Yes. One of the anti-repeal groups has hired Thomas Borthwich head of Kanto to be its technology chief.

So what?

Borthwich was also head of Technology for official Vote Leave.

So what?

The company who got paid most in the entire referendum (and by all campaigns including DUP) was AggregateIQ. Offical Vote Leave spent £3.9 million out of their £7 million allocation on AggregateIQ.

Strange. So what?

AggregateIQ is the twin company of Cambridge Analytica. Payments to AIQ are really back payments to CA. This is being investigated by the UK electoral commission.

But whats this got to do with Borthwich?

He held a high position with Cambridge Analytica in his last job as did another person high up in the Vote Leave campaign.

So with Borthwich comes Cambridge Analytica?

Yes.

So what?

With them also comes Breitbart.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2018/02/04/irexit-the-irish-answer-to-leaving-the-eu/
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2018/02/04/nigel-farage-if-ireland-wants-to-be-an-independent-state-it-cant-stay-part-of-the-eu/
With them also comes Computational Propaganda heavily prevalent in US, Brexit, French, Dutch, German elections. Cambridge Analytica is owned by Robert Mercer and controlled by his daughter Rebekah. Steve Bannon was VP until close to his role as Trump campaign manager.

Now youre going to bring in the Russians?


Yes. Cambridge Analytica is being investigated by the FBI in the Trump-Russia inquiry. Known lines of inquiry include: supplying social media profile data in swing States to Russian actors; conspiring with Russian asset Wikileaks to disseminate the hacked emails. Here is the Mercer propaganda weapon described in full

Weren't we talking about Nigel Farage. What has this got to do with him?

Farage's campaign used Cambridge Analytica during the Brexit campaign. Cambridge Analyticas Brexit project manager was at the Leave.eu launch. At first they admitted saying the contribution was a 'gift' by Mercer to Farage because they were old friends. Now they are denying it. This is also under investigation by UK election commission. Smaller campaigns can only spend £700,000. It looks like Cambridge gave leave.eu a benefit in kind to the value of several million. Also under investigation by the commision is Arron Banks who put £12 million into the campaign he allegedly did not have. Where did he get this money? Where did it end up? Banks is a 'person of interest' in the FBI investigation.

OK that looks dodge. But there might be an innocent explanation for all this?

There have been many claims that right wing groups like UKIP in the EU parliament have been covertly helped and funded by The Kremlin. The Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy which organised Farage's visit are lead by Farage. The 45 MEPs are all pro Putin. Indeed a worker for its secretariat was embroiled in controversy by frequenting the Brussels Russian embassy and distributing pro-Putin propaganda illegaly in the EP.
. UKIP sent observers to 'validate' the Crimean post invasion referendum and they hold the Russian narrative that the EU is to blame for the Russian invasion of Donbass. Infact they hold the Russian narrative on Syria and everything else, including the UK.
There is a lot more.

If all this were true surely Farage would also be a 'person of interest' in the F.B....

He is. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/01/nigel-farage-is-person-of-interest-in-fbi-investigation-into-trump-and-russia
And that was before this bombshell delivered under oath to a US congressional inquiry:

“I’ve been told and have not confirmed that Nigel Farage had additional trips to the Ecuadoran [sic] Embassy than the one that’s been in the papers and that he provided data to Julian Assange,” Simpson told the committee, according to a transcript released on Thursday.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/19/trump-russia-inquiry-is-told-nigel-farage-may-have-given-julian-assange-data

Jaysus. What else might these guys want to do?

The idea is to hurt the EU and it's allies and help Putin and his allies.
Testing ground will be the repeal the 8th referendum.
Referendum on leaving the EU is absolutely dependant on a hard Brexit.
Referendum on Irish Unity. Many Russian trolls already in place for this. (@IrishUnity)
Destabilising Ireland generally.
Promotion of right wing views both social, conservative. Promotion of Christian right and association of Irish nationalism and citizenship with Christian values.
Demotion of Ireland as a location for US FDI.
We will notice a large lurch and lilt towards the right. The country will appear to have suddenly 'gone mad'. Irish MSM will naievely and dutifully report both sides: Normal Irish discourse and a far-right storm of media. Lawmakers, influencers and journos will be influenced in kind.
Parties will be pushed more to the right. Will Media mogul O'Brien push this further and coordinate as Murdoch has done so openly in the US and UK?
We will wonder that we never knew there were so many people with far-right tendencies in Ireland. We would be right: there aren't.
The phenomenum we witness will have been witnessed by many EU countries some of whom (hungary, Poland) now languish under ever more authoritanarianism.

(Probably worth a thread. Better it is discussed sooner rather than later.)

aloyisious

So Farage & Co are secretly Reds Under The Beds despite their claim to be True Blue Brits and Cambridge Analytica are workig hard with the Friends Of Russia. Peculiar that the name Cambridge has popped up again in connection with secretive Pro-Russian Unamerican activities. Terrible that Right-wing Irish Catholics would find it acceptable to get involved with the Reds. Has anyone told Don who's crawling around under his presidential bed?

Edit: BTW, the above isn't a one-liner, just an acknowledgement of the post above, and the work done digging out the info and collating it into a precis report, with links provided to its it's basis and mention of out home-grown media moguls.

Overheal

Trump accidentally attributed the success of the SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch to "American Ingenuity" praising Elon Musk particularly for the successful project.

However Elon Musk came here from ****hole South Africa on an H1B Program, a program that the Republicans seem intent on killing at the moment. Whoops.

https://thinkprogress.org/trump-elon-musk-immigrant-8740d8646422/

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/961073467784421382

Cookie_Monster

Overheal wrote: »

Trump accidentally attributed the success of the SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch to "American Ingenuity" praising Elon Musk particularly for the successful project.

However Elon Musk came here from ****hole South Africa on an H1B Program, a program that the Republicans seem intent on killing at the moment. Whoops.

no mention of the record Tesla loss posted the same day either... only $1.96bn for the year.

but you'd hardly expect Trump to favour hard fact over blabbing about cheap stunts now, would you?

Overheal

Overheal wrote: »

Trump accidentally attributed the success of the SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch to "American Ingenuity" praising Elon Musk particularly for the successful project.

However Elon Musk came here from ****hole South Africa on an H1B Program, a program that the Republicans seem intent on killing at the moment. Whoops.

https://thinkprogress.org/trump-elon-musk-immigrant-8740d8646422/

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/961073467784421382

Is the H1B not for skilled workers and has Trump not been quoted on many occasions saying he wants only a points/merit system for immigration rather than a mix with the lottery?

aloyisious

This is going off at a slight tangent to the election issue the thread is about but as the market results were mentioned earlier here, I'm asking if something I heard last night on TV about stock market selling procedure ia correct. It was said that after the market dealing by humans closed [NOT all at the same time due to time differences] that market computers continued trading/selling in response to what was trending on the DOW and other market indicators reported fluctuations. It would seem strange that machines may have been the dealers which caused the losses over the past few days.

It struck me that something like a cyber attack could at least damage, if not destroy, the markets by rigging after-hour sales to indicate a crash was happening. How secure are the market computer systems from such an attack by organisations with the tech know-how?

Water John

I think some investors, esp short term, set auto sale triggers, so as not to loose too heavily.

It won't have him gone but this Porter story will damage Kelly, esp if he knew, for months. Also, the guy who gets to see everything the POTUS sees, not having the correct clearance!!!

everlast75

Just started the podcast by Preet Bahara. Already fascinating stuff

looksee

Meanwhile Trump has decided that doing some piety will go down well with the base - he's not wrong!

Water John

What? Sack cloth and ashes?

aloyisious

looksee wrote: »

Meanwhile Trump has decided that doing some piety will go down well with the base - he's not wrong!

Confessional with Mr Graham in the Oval Office, in front of Fox News?

PopePalpatine

Water John wrote: »

I think some investors, esp short term, set auto sale triggers, so as not to loose too heavily.

It won't have him gone but this Porter story will damage Kelly, esp if he knew, for months. Also, the guy who gets to see everything the POTUS sees, not having the correct clearance!!!

If Trump's supporters are able to minimise sexual assault as what a real man does, chances are they'll do the same with Robert Porter's alleged abuses.

Quin_Dub

aloyisious wrote: »

This is going off at a slight tangent to the election issue the thread is about but as the market results were mentioned earlier here, I'm asking if something I heard last night on TV about stock market selling procedure ia correct. It was said that after the market dealing by humans closed [NOT all at the same time due to time differences] that market computers continued trading/selling in response to what was trending on the DOW and other market indicators reported fluctuations. It would seem strange that machines may have been the dealers which caused the losses over the past few days.

It struck me that something like a cyber attack could at least damage, if not destroy, the markets by rigging after-hour sales to indicate a crash was happening. How secure are the market computer systems from such an attack by organisations with the tech know-how?

I read an article the other day on this.

Apparently the growth in "bot" traders has increased sharply over the last few years.

A couple of years ago , automated trades accounted for 10-15% of trading on a regular day , now it's closer to 30% and during a spike (either up or down) they can account for up to 80% of the trades.

Basically they are automated algorithms that monitor the markets and react automatically - These are different to trades that are manually pre-configured (Buy at X , sell at Y etc.).

They are fully autonomous and the issue is that once a few bots start buying/selling at volume the rest see the trend and pile in behind it.

The basic jist of the article was that the level of automation meant that these kinds of high volume , big shifts in the market are now far more likely.


There was no discussion on the exposure to hacking , but it has to be a massive concern.

ECO_Mental

I don't understand this.....

Two weeks ago with the first shutdown Schumer et al decided to have a stand and not vote the debt bill and the main point was the dreamers and there was going to be no deal unless there was a dreamer deal....that was the whole point! Now Schumer and the Senate Dems have just forgotten about the Dreamers apparently and voted with the GOP to pass the budget/debt expansion.

I don't get it? what's his long game or has he any game plan other than leave it to Pelosi and congress Dems to do the fight

Thinkingaboutit

Levels of economic growth not seen since the Reagan years, and all his opponents can do is screech about Mexican 'Dreamers' and (very hypocritically) about sexual assault, or some imaginary issue for professional offence takers. People have a right to expect immigration law is enforced or to fear another Moslem driving a HGV down a street / shooting in jihad for his Allah (directly a result of Open Door migration). That isn't racist, unless someone is deeply confused, has gone all Alice in Wonderland, Humpty Dumpty about words and their meaning.

everlast75

Thinkingaboutit wrote: »

Levels of economic growth not seen since the Reagan years

Thanks Obama!

Thinkingaboutit wrote: »

and all his opponents can do is screech about Mexican 'Dreamers'

Nobody is screeching!? And that programme was accepted by most as a very positive one.

Thinkingaboutit wrote: »

and (very hypocritically) about sexual assault, or some imaginary issue for professional offence takers.

Clinton suffered for it - Trump has not (yet).

Thinkingaboutit wrote: »

People have a right to expect immigration law is enforced

Absolutely!

Thinkingaboutit wrote: »

or to fear another Moslem driving a HGV down a street / shooting in jihad for his Allah (directly a result of Open Door migration).

No, it is because there are lunatics in every walk of life - including home grown lunatics (in what you would describe to homegrown, as in white people) committing acts of mass homicide.

Thinkingaboutit wrote: »

That isn't racist, unless someone is deeply confused, has gone all Alice in Wonderland, Humpty Dumpty about words and their meaning.

Pot... kettle... black

jobbridge4life

Thinkingaboutit wrote: »

Levels of economic growth not seen since the Reagan years,

Link?

Thinkingaboutit wrote: »

and all his opponents can do is screech about Mexican 'Dreamers' and (very hypocritically) about sexual assault, or some imaginary issue for professional offence takers.

There are more than Mexicans among Dreamers.

Thinkingaboutit wrote: »

People have a right to expect immigration law is enforced or to fear another Moslem driving a HGV down a street / shooting in jihad for his Allah (directly a result of Open Door migration). That isn't racist, unless someone is deeply confused, has gone all Alice in Wonderland, Humpty Dumpty about words and their meaning.

And yet no right to have sensible gun laws enforced or worry about the next major gun attack...

Hande hoche!

Think Schumer is being pragmatic. In the midterms he can point to various legislative accomplishments, particularly if there is a delivery on infrastructure spending. Can't be accused of being a sheer obstructionist by the GOP. Secured a later vote on immigration reform.

Manic Moran

Some of us disagree with the nature of “sensible.” Unless you’re talking about the ones on the books already which often are not actually enforced. Passing new ones to ignore is cheaper than doing things like prosecuting for straw purchases...

I’m still confident that there will be some form of DACA agreement, but the Ds will have to give way on border security. The current stance is position politics at its worst. I am still utterly bemused by the position of California and its local governments (and their representatives in Congress with big weight such as Pelosi or Harris) on spending so much money and political capital on defending illegal immigrants. I can see a hands-off approach, not particularly helping ICE, but local governments are going to the level of creating offices to defend them in court, such as San Francisco’s “Special Immigration Division”.

How does this position, or the Blue Coast State position on gun laws help in swing states, such as Ohio, PA, or MI, where illegal immigration is not anywhere as popular a cause, but they still love their outdoor sports (and particularly firearms. Ever notice how those ‘sensible gun laws’ rarely seem to be submitted by the Honorable Senator from Wisconsin?) There is a reason for this. Much like the Rs, the Ds are pandering to their base, but the Rs seem to be doing a better job, even today, of connecting with the center.

listermint

There is no sensible gun discussion in the US because it's never the right time and never will be.

When faced with that it's quite literally pointless. And thousands upon thousands of their own citizens die needlessly every year. Every day hundreds of deaths.




... Sensible...

Overheal

aloyisious wrote: »

This is going off at a slight tangent to the election issue the thread is about but as the market results were mentioned earlier here, I'm asking if something I heard last night on TV about stock market selling procedure ia correct. It was said that after the market dealing by humans closed [NOT all at the same time due to time differences] that market computers continued trading/selling in response to what was trending on the DOW and other market indicators reported fluctuations. It would seem strange that machines may have been the dealers which caused the losses over the past few days.

It struck me that something like a cyber attack could at least damage, if not destroy, the markets by rigging after-hour sales to indicate a crash was happening. How secure are the market computer systems from such an attack by organisations with the tech know-how?

Generally pretty secure I thought. Market tech is insanely huge business. Firms have in the past spent huge sums of money relocating their offices and spending hundreds of millions of dollars laying direct lines of fiber just to reduce communication latency to the exchanges by a few milliseconds.

https://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0927/outfront-netscape-jim-barksdale-daniel-spivey-wall-street-speed-war.html#7ca9f7f5741a

jobbridge4life

Manic Moran wrote: »

Some of us disagree with the nature of “sensible.” Unless you’re talking about the ones on the books already which often are not actually enforced. Passing new ones to ignore is cheaper than doing things like prosecuting for straw purchases...

I’m still confident that there will be some form of DACA agreement, but the Ds will have to give way on border security. The current stance is position politics at its worst. I am still utterly bemused by the position of California and its local governments (and their representatives in Congress with big weight such as Pelosi or Harris) on spending so much money and political capital on defending illegal immigrants. I can see a hands-off approach, not particularly helping ICE, but local governments are going to the level of creating offices to defend them in court, such as San Francisco’s “Special Immigration Division”.

How does this position, or the Blue Coast State position on gun laws help in swing states, such as Ohio, PA, or MI, where illegal immigration is not anywhere as popular a cause, but they still love their outdoor sports (and particularly firearms. Ever notice how those ‘sensible gun laws’ rarely seem to be submitted by the Honorable Senator from Wisconsin?) There is a reason for this. Much like the Rs, the Ds are pandering to their base, but the Rs seem to be doing a better job, even today, of connecting with the center.

Do you have any links to the basis of your observation bolded above? In the polls on major issues, background checks for gun ownership, protection for dreamers, the border wall, etc. that I have seen the majority, a significant majority align with Democrat positions?

Overheal

ECO_Mental wrote: »

I don't understand this.....

Two weeks ago with the first shutdown Schumer et al decided to have a stand and not vote the debt bill and the main point was the dreamers and there was going to be no deal unless there was a dreamer deal....that was the whole point! Now Schumer and the Senate Dems have just forgotten about the Dreamers apparently and voted with the GOP to pass the budget/debt expansion.

I don't get it? what's his long game or has he any game plan other than leave it to Pelosi and congress Dems to do the fight

Mitch McConnell made a motion on the floor to start the Immigration debates when the chamber resumes on Monday. So we'll yet see.

The wall has become far too political, primarily because of media sensationalism and Trump pouring fuel on that same fire, refusing to adopt the moderate interpretations of his 'wall', refusing to say his view has 'evolved' and that it is going to allegedly be a coast-to-coast physical barrier that can't be cut through or dug under or climbed over that is transparent but also will be paid by Mexico.

Naturally the sensible approach is to fund rational approaches - reinforce the border wall where it is needed, extend it where it makes sense, leave it open where it does not (for any number of reasons, such as geographical or ecological or sovereign considerations - thinking tribal lands and animal migration) and in those areas enforce the border with better technology, like satellite coverage, seismographic detection, or drone sweeps, or the like.

Manic Moran

jobbridge4life wrote: »

Do you have any links to the basis of your observation bolded above? In the polls on major issues, background checks for gun ownership, protection for dreamers, the border wall, etc. that I have seen the majority, a significant majority align with Democrat positions?

Other than the fact that the Republicans generally keep winning? Here's the map of the State legislatures, note the color of the various swing states. https://images.dailykos.com/images/327489/original/State_Legislative_Trifectas.png?1479139455

It's a matter of degree. For example, yes, most of us approve of better background checks for gun ownership. But people viewing the polls seem to view it as "Why, then did they vote against the background check law after Newton" without looking into the details. There were a couple of proposals put forward on how to implement universal background checks. The one voted upon (Manchin-Toomey), and shot down, did more than just say "Use background checks" . So we get the superficial result of: "Oh my God, the American people want sensible gun control laws, but their politicians voted against"

Wheras, had, say, the Tom Coburn (R-OK) proposal been voted upon, I think it would have been more likely to have passed. The Coburn proposal was basically "If you're selling a gun under the auspices of a private party transaction, use the same NICS system the current licensed dealers use." That was it. Simple. No third party involvement. No extra costs. No records. Just mandating that all sales have a background check and a method to allow the seller to conduct it. Would the democrat-controlled Senate vote on a pure-R proposal?

This is one way you can get the apparent dichotomy between what the 'people' want, and what happens in congress. It also shows that just because people don't support the Democrat way of doing things, that Republicans can't also try to get a similar result with a different method.

Same with protection for dreamers. I'm confident that the Republican party will allow, as a group, a path to citizenship for dreamers. There are a few hard-cases who are utterly opposed, but a deal can be struck. The difference is over the rest of the concept of illegal immigration. You can be "For protection of dreamers and against the wall", or "for protection of dreamers and for the wall". The point of difference is not the dreamers, it's the wall (Or whatever border security method to put the dollars towards).

Water John

Kelly, in a bit of a mess, over the Porter story. Trying to say now, he wanted him to resign and denying he encouraged him to stay.
Also having to deny that he offered to resign himself.