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Betfair exchange

  • 26-11-2017 9:56pm
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,648 Autochange


    Is anybody using betfair exchange? Im trying to gather some information on it and would like to hear from anyone that might be using it.
    thanks


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,933 ✭✭✭ jacool


    I am - shoot


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,380 ✭✭✭ The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman


    I use it


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,648 Autochange


    Thanks for the replies.
    What do you think of it? Is it anymore profitable than bookmakers sites?
    Any thoughts welcome


  • Registered Users Posts: 46 Clippett


    If you have to ask on here about using Betfair then do yourself a favour and stay away from it. And I mean that in the best possible way


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,648 Autochange


    Clippett wrote: »
    If you have to ask on here about using Betfair then do yourself a favour and stay away from it. And I mean that in the best possible way

    Thanks for the advice but I've only become interested in it and as with anything in life it's best to gather as much information as possible about something before putting money through it.

    I could watch videos and read up on it until blue in the face but im looking for information from real world users.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭ Joe_ Public


    What info do you need? It’s a betting site, not fundamentally different from any other only it has a lay as well as back function. Either way, it’s just gambling whatever way you use it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭ Joe_ Public


    Advantage with exchange is better odds if you like punting mid range or outsiders as well as the option to lay off or trade your stake. The cash out option on regular bookie platforms is risible.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,380 ✭✭✭ The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman


    If you want to trade then Betfair exchange is the place to be. To make money on it you'll need to put in the hours at whatever your chosen sport is but there isnt anywhere that will allow you to make more in terms of liquidity in most markets. It has gotten more difficult with the use of bots by big day traders but you can still cream a nice profit.

    If you want more info PM me or if you have an specific questions.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,745 ✭✭✭ diomed


    Autochange wrote: »
    Thanks for the replies.
    What do you think of it? Is it anymore profitable than bookmakers sites?
    Any thoughts welcome
    I use Betfair for all my bets.
    It has much better odds imo than bookmakers on outsiders.

    I forget my losers.

    I must say I backed a few of these in the weeks or months before the race
    English Derby: Sir Percy 17s, started 6/1 bookies ... backed weeks before
    Ruler Of The World: 16s, started 7/1 bookies ... backed weeks before
    Solemia: 75s Betfair, started 33/1 bookies ... backed day of race
    Sword Fighter: 67s betfair, started 33/1 bookies ... backed day of race

    For example, 75s is 74/1. Take away 5% Betfair commision gives 70.3/1

    Another advantage of Betfair is there is a place only market on a race.
    You can back a horse to place. You can also lay horses to win and/or place.

    You might be scared of laying horses to place because you have to lay out a lot of money to win a small amount.
    But you can back a horse weeks before a races, say at 16s, and if the price falls to 10s you can sell at that price and maker a profit.

    I have often place laid horses in the English Derby. But I try to lay about five low priced horse to finish outside the first three. The worst result is if three place, the best result is if all five finish outside the places.

    As a newbie to an exchange the first mistakes you will make is you will lay a horse you meant to back. or you will click the wrong horse and back the wrong one.
    It is best to keep only a very small amount in your account. Then if you make a mistake you can only lose that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,291 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    Any good Betfair mathematicians out there ?

    This WTA season just gone I bet on approx 300 games where the back price of the fav. and underdog if matched would give me a max 35% return on my stake.

    The way i did it was backed the underdog at the trading price and then backed the favorite at a stake and price that would guarantee a 35% return on the underdog stake.

    If both prices got matched then great i won, but if the favorite never got matched then I lost the underdog stake.

    On final analysis it did not work, it was just a slower way to lose money.

    But using historical data I figured I could make money if I limited my exposure on the losses.

    If I cashed out for a 75% loss on the games I lost before the end and the full 100% loss then the system would have worked

    Now here is the problem
    I don't have time to be watching every WTA match I bet on and to make a decision that I am better off getting out at a 75% loss

    Is there a calculation I can use to select a lay price of the favorite that will get me that 75% loss

    So for example
    Back underdog $100 @3.3
    Back fav $191.86 @ 1.72

    If both the above get matched I win $36.23

    However if the fav never reaches 1.72 I lose $100

    Is there another (initally unmatched) lay selection I can place on the fav to make the $100 loss only a $75 loss

    So as the lay price of the fav falls my lay bet gets matched ?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭ Joe_ Public


    Any good Betfair mathematicians out there ?

    This WTA season just gone I bet on approx 300 games where the back price of the fav. and underdog if matched would give me a max 35% return on my stake.

    The way i did it was backed the underdog at the trading price and then backed the favorite at a stake and price that would guarantee a 35% return on the underdog stake.

    If both prices got matched then great i won, but if the favorite never got matched then I lost the underdog stake.

    On final analysis it did not work, it was just a slower way to lose money.

    But using historical data I figured I could make money if I limited my exposure on the losses.

    If I cashed out for a 75% loss on the games I lost before the end and the full 100% loss then the system would have worked

    Now here is the problem
    I don't have time to be watching every WTA match I bet on and to make a decision that I am better off getting out at a 75% loss

    Is there a calculation I can use to select a lay price of the favorite that will get me that 75% loss

    So for example
    Back underdog $100 @3.3
    Back fav $191.86 @ 1.72

    If both the above get matched I win $36.23

    However if the fav never reaches 1.72 I lose $100

    Is there another (initally unmatched) lay selection I can place on the fav to make the $100 loss only a $75 loss

    So as the lay price of the fav falls my lay bet gets matched ?

    Are there programs you can get that deal with this stuff? Like gruss or bet angel or some such? Don’t use them myself so not too sure.

    Problem with putting in a manual lay on the fav is that you would still have the back bet in play too which could be subsequently matched depending on how the game proceeds which would somewhat skewer the sums again.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,291 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    Are there programs you can get that deal with this stuff? Like gruss or bet angel or some such? Don’t use them myself so not too sure.

    Problem with putting in a manual lay on the fav is that you would still have the back bet in play too which could be subsequently matched depending on how the game proceeds which would somewhat skewer the sums again.

    Yea you can use software apps to set things like a "stop loss" but I'm so small time paying for those would not be feasible.

    Yes, ones sums would be all over the place if the lower favorite lay bet was matched and then the game swung and the higher favorite back bet was subsequently matched but in majority of analysis I have done that rarely happens, I've found the amount of times I could have cashed out and saved a few bob on the loss far outweighed the number of times I cashed out for a loss and regretted it


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭ Joe_ Public


    Interesting analysis. I only follow it intermittently but those WTA markets you specified seem prone to volatility to me. Either a traders dream or nightmare depending on how you look at it.

    Also the other issue is manually placing the stop loss bet on the jolly. Is this even possible without doing in play as Betfair will always match you at the best available odds?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,291 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    Interesting analysis. I only follow it intermittently but those WTA markets you specified seem prone to volatility to me. Either a traders dream or nightmare depending on how you look at it.

    Also the other issue is manually placing the stop loss bet on the jolly. Is this even possible without doing in play as Betfair will always match you at the best available odds?

    Yea WTA odds move a lot, bit at the same time you have games where favourites break the underdogs serve early and never look back, they are the ones I am losing on.

    I don't think what I am looking for is possible to do before the game starts.

    I cannot place a back bet on the favourite at a price lower than the current trading price, and equally I cannot place a lay bet on the underdog at a price higher than the current training price.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,380 ✭✭✭ The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman


    Yea WTA odds move a lot, bit at the same time you have games where favourites break the underdogs serve early and never look back, they are the ones I am losing on.

    I don't think what I am looking for is possible to do before the game starts.

    I cannot place a back bet on the favourite at a price lower than the current trading price, and equally I cannot place a lay bet on the underdog at a price higher than the current training price.

    Short answer no, unless your doing the trading in running.

    A potential problems also, the bets your losing and want to limit to 75%, you dont know how many of them are actually going to turn around and be winners when your trading out of the position, costing yourself alot of potential profits.

    My advice for whats its worth would be stop looking for such a big margin. Take 5%-7% on every game.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭ Joe_ Public


    Yea WTA odds move a lot, bit at the same time you have games where favourites break the underdogs serve early and never look back, they are the ones I am losing on.

    I don't think what I am looking for is possible to do before the game starts.

    I cannot place a back bet on the favourite at a price lower than the current trading price, and equally I cannot place a lay bet on the underdog at a price higher than the current training price.

    Alas it does not seem possible, without software at least.

    The WTA would seem like fertile trading ground to me. Especially in the lesser events, it seems quite common for top players to turn up less than motivated and to lose at short odds. Challenge with trading, though, is you have to achieve a very high success rate to make it pay. In a way it’s merely another form of betting on short priced favorites.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭ Joe_ Public


    It may also be worth trying something like bet angel on a trial basis. Think they offer a free month or something like that. Have a go and see if it pays and may be worth the sub price. Nothing lost if not.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,380 ✭✭✭ The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman


    Alas it does not seem possible, without software at least.

    The WTA would seem like fertile trading ground to me. Especially in the lesser events, it seems quite common for top players to turn up less than motivated and to lose at short odds. Challenge with trading, though, is you have to achieve a very high success rate to make it pay. In a way it’s merely another form of betting on short priced favorites.

    Trading can be time consuming but if you put in the effort money is there to be made.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,291 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    Short answer no, unless your doing the trading in running.

    A potential problems also, the bets your losing and want to limit to 75%, you dont know how many of them are actually going to turn around and be winners when your trading out of the position, costing yourself alot of potential profits.

    My advice for whats its worth would be stop looking for such a big margin. Take 5%-7% on every game.

    Thanks for that

    I started off back in March finding games where I could back each player at 2.1, which , if both were matched was a 9.5% return after the commission.

    I did that for almost 400 games and it was not going to work, I had a 83.7% win rate, but I needed a win rate of closer to 93% to be able to get any bit of profit.

    So I then upped it to also include games where I could get a 19% return after commission. I’d back a underdog at the trading price and then select an (unmatched) price for the favorite and hope that they would reach it.

    That resulted in an 80% win rate, so that too did not work. Even though the return was greater I was losing more games.

    I’m going to go back and anaylse all the games I bet on using the historical data and see if a 5% to 7% return would yield anything.

    I’m going to try and get that done before that start of the new season on 1st Jan


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,380 ✭✭✭ The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman


    Thanks for that

    I started off back in March finding games where I could back each player at 2.1, which , if both were matched was a 9.5% return after the commission.

    I did that for almost 400 games and it was not going to work, I had a 83.7% win rate, but I needed a win rate of closer to 93% to be able to get any bit of profit.

    So I then upped it to also include games where I could get a 19% return after commission. I’d back a underdog at the trading price and then select an (unmatched) price for the favorite and hope that they would reach it.

    That resulted in an 80% win rate, so that too did not work. Even though the return was greater I was losing more games.

    I’m going to go back and anaylse all the games I bet on using the historical data and see if a 5% to 7% return would yield anything.

    I’m going to try and get that done before that start of the new season on 1st Jan

    You'll most likely have to trade to achieve it. If you can hit 83.7% winrate and not trade live you can make money on this market 100% with trading. You just need to learn to trade and have the time to do it.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,291 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    You'll most likely have to trade to achieve it. If you can hit 83.7% winrate and not trade live you can make money on this market 100% with trading. You just need to learn to trade and have the time to do it.

    By the way what do you define as trading ?

    Getting out of losing situations earlier so as to limit the loss ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 246 ✭✭ Urindanger


    Well the essence of trading is lay low, back high. Whatever strategy you use is up to you, there are thousands.

    Can you not just put in some other back/lay bets to secure nuggets of profit along the way? Like as you say, you want to back the dog @3.3, why not lay a small bit of your liability off @3.0 or something. Similarly with the favourite, lay at current price, and maintain your back bet of @1.72 hoping to get matched in play.

    Scalping in tennis is pretty straight forward and pretty reliable. Simple things like back the server at the start of their service game, and lay before the start their return game and vice versa is very solid, especially in the men's games with lads like John Isner who's a beast of a server, average returner. WTA games would suit swing trading more due to games being more unpredictable I feel.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭ Joe_ Public


    No doubt there are people with the right temperament and approach doing well from trading and like minded systems, but personally I’d baulk at using terms like “straightforward” and “simple things” when it comes to any form of betting. The fact that the overwhelming majority of Betfair punters lose money is proof that it is anything but.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 246 ✭✭ Urindanger


    I dunno Caan berry always advocates the simple approach and I remember Peter Webb saying one time that you should be able to write out your plan of action on a tiny little card or something to that effect and if you can't then you're over thinking things. Obviously edge is edge, and there's a good reason why so few have all the profit both on the Exchanges and in the sportsbooks, but I don't think you need to reinvent the wheel. Certainly on the Exchanges anyway where you don't have to factor in the insurmountable juice and your opponent having all the advantages over you.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭ Joe_ Public


    Yeah I wouldn’t disagree at all with that. Keeping things simple is most definitely my approach which, anyway, is based on enjoyment and not expecting much. Too many expensive lessons for at least one not to ultimately sink in!

    One thing I would say about trading, though, is I have sometimes noted a tendency in people to regard it as an easy route to profit, as if it somehow wasn’t gambling at all. Obviously those who do well and work at it know this is far from the case.

    For example, the case of trading on Isners serve as cited above. If you boil that down, what you are effectively doing is backing Isner at roughly 1/10 or possibly worse, to hold his serve. So it would simply take Isner to be broken once every 10 service games for this strategy to fail to profit. That’s rough calculation, in fairness, but a fair idea, I would suggest, of what those bets entail.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,380 ✭✭✭ The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman


    By the way what do you define as trading ?

    Getting out of losing situations earlier so as to limit the loss ?

    No I mean sitting there watching the game, the game flow and moving your bets accordingly. For instance backing the underdog who wins the first set and moves up in the second set but the favourite is finding momentum you can find massive swings in tennis games.

    Tennis is not my forte though, I mainly trade on basketball, NFL, Soccer. And even in those games there isnt an awful lot of liquidity in the basketball so it's a tougher ask to make money. Small WTA games it's impossible to know the type of liquidity that will be on those games.

    Trading is definitely a good way to make money but it's work. I put in 40 hours a week or more.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,291 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    No I mean sitting there watching the game, the game flow and moving your bets accordingly. For instance backing the underdog who wins the first set and moves up in the second set but the favourite is finding momentum you can find massive swings in tennis games.

    Tennis is not my forte though, I mainly trade on basketball, NFL, Soccer. And even in those games there isnt an awful lot of liquidity in the basketball so it's a tougher ask to make money. Small WTA games it's impossible to know the type of liquidity that will be on those games.

    Trading is definitely a good way to make money but it's work. I put in 40 hours a week or more.

    I think the key to it is the time you need the time to watch the market

    Like in the NFL it's often a good move to lay a team that scores on it's first possession in a game that is pretty evenly matched, and then trade it out if the other team comes right back and scores
    But the only way you can do that is if you are watching the scores as they happen.
    You need to be in-front on the PC/app whatever knowing what is going on. Plus you learn a lot about the sport and the players from watching the market, who is better at doing what in whichever situation


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,291 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    Urindanger wrote: »
    Well the essence of trading is lay low, back high. Whatever strategy you use is up to you, there are thousands.

    Can you not just put in some other back/lay bets to secure nuggets of profit along the way? Like as you say, you want to back the dog @3.3, why not lay a small bit of your liability off @3.0 or something. Similarly with the favourite, lay at current price, and maintain your back bet of @1.72 hoping to get matched in play.

    Scalping in tennis is pretty straight forward and pretty reliable. Simple things like back the server at the start of their service game, and lay before the start their return game and vice versa is very solid, especially in the men's games with lads like John Isner who's a beast of a server, average returner. WTA games would suit swing trading more due to games being more unpredictable I feel.

    That's all well and good but the market has to move in the right direction to make that happen
    The dog has to become less of a dog to allow that lay @3 to be matched.

    Trading is not like gambling in the sense that you don't need to bet on the final outcome to make money, but at the same time you need the market to move in the direction you want it to to make money.
    And that means favorites become less favorite and underdogs become less underdogs at some point in the game.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 246 ✭✭ Urindanger


    That's all well and good but the market has to move in the right direction to make that happen
    The dog has to become less of a dog to allow that lay @3 to be matched.

    Trading is not like gambling in the sense that you don't need to bet on the final outcome to make money, but at the same time you need the market to move in the direction you want it to to make money.
    And that means favorites become less favorite and underdogs become less underdogs at some point in the game.

    Well you need your favourite to reach @1.72 anyway and the only way that can happen is if your underdog comes in so you're killing two birds with the one stone in a sense by having a lay bet lying in wait.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 361 ✭✭ Luis21


    Do all the online bookies look for photo ID ?


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