World Cup 2018

Morzadec

Any fancies for the upcoming WC now that we know all the teams? Only market at the moment in most bookies seems to be for outright winner, the others will come soon I'm sure.

Germany and Brazil are joint favourites at 5/1, so favourites a little longer than last couple of times round where iirc correctly they were 4/1 (Spain in 2010 and Brazil in 2014).

Fancy the Germans myself.

Portugal at 20/1 could be worth a punt, they showed themselves to be attritional and difficult to beat in the Euros which can bring you a long way in tournament football.

Some of the African team are very long odds, would fancy a punt on one or two to make the semis.

Any expert insights or teams / players to watch?

Division

Really don't think Germany should be joint favourites at all.

I don't know enough about all the teams to offer an opinion on the odds so will stick to betting individual games.

There may be group bets that look decent - draw is 1st December.

JoshRosen

Ive been putting €10 a week on Brazil @ 5/1 since the draw was made.

callaway92

JoshRosen wrote: »

Ive been putting €10 a week on Brazil @ 5/1 since the draw was made.

Why €10 a week instead of one big lump at 5s in case the price goes down?

JoshRosen

callaway92 wrote: »

Why €10 a week instead of one big lump at 5s in case the price goes down?

This way it doesn’t feel like a lump if you get me? 10er a week for say 15-20weeks feels a lot less money than €1500 straight. Just me though, how I like to do it.

who what when

JoshRosen wrote: »

This way it doesn’t feel like a lump if you get me? 10er a week for say 15-20weeks feels a lot less money than €1500 straight. Just me though, how I like to do it.

A tenner a week for 20 weeks is a lot less money than €1500 lump sum. By about €1300!

piplip87

Fancy the French myself.

JoshRosen

who what when wrote: »

A tenner a week for 20 weeks is a lot less money than €1500 lump sum. By about €1300!

Beg your pardon, Had the returns in my head, obviously.

rekluse

gonna start backing France and Brazil weekly when January pay check hits , can't see past them for the winners.

JoshRosen

rekluse wrote: »

gonna start backing France and Brazil weekly when January pay check hits , can't see past them for the winners.

Me either but I know closer to the time I’ll have my head scrambled by Argentina. Messi & Ronaldo last World Cup, is it possible both never win it?

rekluse

JoshRosen wrote: »

Me either but I know closer to the time I’ll have my head scrambled by Argentina. Messi & Ronaldo last World Cup, is it possible both never win it?

Can't see it myself, but would be hard to begrudge either a World Cup, even if it did cost me a few bob!

scouttio

When are the squads usually announced? Oxlade Chamberlain is 5/6 on Ladbrokes to make the England squad. Looks like great value to me. He's been playing well lately, he's getting more game time now that coutinho has left a starting spot open and he's versatile which is valuable for squad fillers.

ShamoBuc

scouttio wrote: »

When are the squads usually announced? Oxlade Chamberlain is 5/6 on Ladbrokes to make the England squad. Looks like great value to me. He's been playing well lately, he's getting more game time now that coutinho has left a starting spot open and he's versatile which is valuable for squad fillers.

His versatility and goal threat should be enough to get him in. I'd be shocked if he doesn't.

Dots1982

ShamoBuc wrote: »

scouttio wrote: »

When are the squads usually announced? Oxlade Chamberlain is 5/6 on Ladbrokes to make the England squad. Looks like great value to me. He's been playing well lately, he's getting more game time now that coutinho has left a starting spot open and he's versatile which is valuable for squad fillers.

His versatility and goal threat should be enough to get him in. I'd be shocked if he doesn't.

Versatility yes, goal threat no

diomed

Peru .........370.29 ..... €120.00 ..... €44,315.00
Japan ...... 488.24 ....... €10.00 ....... €4,872.40

diomed

Nearer the start I will probably have a bet on Germany.

CrabieCrawford

Anyone know when the racing post world cup pullout is?

Gavin "shels"

CrabieCrawford wrote: »

Anyone know when the racing post world cup pullout is?

https://shop1.racingpost.com/products/racing-post-world-cup-guide-2018

Shane St.

Gavin shels wrote: »

https://shop1.racingpost.com/products/racing-post-world-cup-guide-2018

just got that. good shout. Michael Cox has great analysis

LuckyLloyd

I'll be throwing some money in small increments on mid to long odds teams via exchange; hoping a few of them get to the second round and hedging out after that. I expect odds to slash dramatically for outside shots that qualify for the second round, particularly as they'll just have enjoyed two good results to do it. Potentially some easy money to be made, and chance of a nice ride if one of your picks get to a QF or beyond...

Shanotheslayer

Egypt/Poland/Denmark to make it out of groups just over 5/1
Saudi/Panama both to finish bottom just over evens
Brazil top S.A team evens

All bets i'm thinking about.

rekluse

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Egypt/Poland/Denmark to make it out of groups just over 5/1
Saudi/Panama both to finish bottom just over evens
Brazil top S.A team evens

All bets i'm thinking about.

I'm thinking :

Group A - Uruguay Qualify
Group B - Spain win
Group C - France win
Group D - Croatia Qualify
Group E - Brazil win
Group F - Germany win
Group G - England qualify
Group H - Colombia qualify
Champions League Final - Both teams to score

Pays 14/1 - Anyone any thoughts?

Might leave France out. Have a niggling feeling about them as they are a usually quite slow starters and quite a young team, that would bring it back to 10/1. Any reason you fancy Denmark Shano ? Looked at the squad there and it doesn't look that great bar Erikson. Also just noticed Cahill in the Aussie squad, his 4th world cup @ 38 years old!

callaway92

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Egypt/Poland/Denmark to make it out of groups just over 5/1
Saudi/Panama both to finish bottom just over evens
Brazil top S.A team evens

All bets i'm thinking about.

Don't like Denmark for that group at all. Peru are a decent side who I'd fancy to get thru

rekluse

Anyone seeing any value in the ‘Top team goalscorer’ markets? Isco could be a good shout for Spain at 5/1.

The real mccoy 91

callaway92 wrote: »

Don't like Denmark for that group at all. Peru are a decent side who I'd fancy to get thru

Alot for me will depend on whether they get their captain back on a 1 year ban for drug use but 3 other teams captains from the group have written to fifa asking for it to be lifted if he doesn't play id like Denmark to finish second

The real mccoy 91

Anyone see value in Costa Rica to qualify out of their group at 3/1? Serbia and the swiss wouldn't be up to much

Med101007

Anyone make their winner & top goalscorer bets yet?

S.M.B.

Do we expect there to be any decent promotions starting up or is it too late at this stage? If I remember correctly the last tournament had some decent offers but I can't remember exactly what they were.

callaway92

S.M.B. wrote: »

Do we expect there to be any decent promotions starting up or is it too late at this stage? If I remember correctly the last tournament had some decent offers but I can't remember exactly what they were.

PP for the euros had Placing up to €20 on a team and for every goal the score you got a €5 free bet

S.M.B.

callaway92 wrote: »

PP for the euros had Placing up to €20 on a team and for every goal the score you got a €5 free bet

That's the one. I think 888 had something similar.

ittakestwo

Is Saha out of the WC due to the injury in CL final? Egypt match odds for thier opener against Uruguay went flyinh out tonight as if it was confirmed he will be injured.

Shanotheslayer

rekluse wrote: »

I'm thinking :

Group A - Uruguay Qualify
Group B - Spain win
Group C - France win
Group D - Croatia Qualify
Group E - Brazil win
Group F - Germany win
Group G - England qualify
Group H - Colombia qualify
Champions League Final - Both teams to score

Pays 14/1 - Anyone any thoughts?

Might leave France out. Have a niggling feeling about them as they are a usually quite slow starters and quite a young team, that would bring it back to 10/1. Any reason you fancy Denmark Shano ? Looked at the squad there and it doesn't look that great bar Erikson. Also just noticed Cahill in the Aussie squad, his 4th world cup @ 38 years old!

Just fancy Denmark myself I see another poster reckons Peru in that group but it's just my personal feeling. I haven't backed it yet.
I've currently backed:

Treble:
France
Brazil
Germany

all to top their group 11/10

Double:
Saudi Arabia
Costa Rica

both to finish bottem 23/10

To qualify out of group Acca:

Saudi NO
Morocco NO
Germany YES
Brazil YES
Argentina YES

Just under evens.

Shanotheslayer

ittakestwo wrote: »

Is Saha out of the WC due to the injury in CL final? Egypt match odds for thier opener against Uruguay went flyinh out tonight as if it was confirmed he will be injured.

Assume that's Salah

Not 100% confirmed may miss the first game or the whole tournament but even so wouldn't back based on injury.

ittakestwo

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Assume that's Salah

Not 100% confirmed may miss the first game or the whole tournament but even so wouldn't back based on injury.

Jaysus don't know why I said Saha....

When I saw Egypt match odds going flying out I noticed that their ''to qualify'' from group A odds on betfair exchange had not reacted yet and there was a bet of 2.5 (6/4) request to lay them to qualify. I took the €500 bet. This morning the market had reacted and was trading at 3 (2/1) on the exchange. If I can buy back in at that I can lock in an €84 profit without risking anything

catrat12

Do people think that mertens starts for Belgium
If so sneaky few bob on him top goal scorer big price

Also back Germany to win outright and England not to get out of group
I love an outside betðŸ˜႒

catrat12

That England bet is on paddy power alright

Hamadeusentman

Giroud 40/1 top scorer. SkyBet.
Worth a shot I think. Good form with Chelsea. Up top in front of griezmann and mbappe could be lethal. Straightforward enough group you’d think...

The real mccoy 91

Another point on peru is they have only lost twice in their last 20 games by brazil and Chile 23/10 to qualify is looking value to me now

Shane St.

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

Another point on peru is they have only lost twice in their last 20 games by brazil and Chile 23/10 to qualify is looking value to me now

think Denmark will do them. isn't guerrero out?

Scorpion Sting

Shane St. wrote: »

think Denmark will do them. isn't guerrero out?

Yeah, drugs ban.

okidoki987

Anyone seeing any value in the ‘Top team goalscorer’ markets? Isco could be a good shout for Spain at 5/1

Paddy Power going 6 places but at 1/5 odds.
Little difference in prices.

callaway92

Scorpion Sting wrote: »

Yeah, drugs ban.

His ban was overturned - so is cleared to play

wadacrack

Spain 7;00 to win it

callaway92

wadacrack wrote: »

Spain 7;00 to win it

I’m finding it very hard to pick outright winner. Between Spain/Germany/France/Brazil it’s too tight to call, so therefore can’t fond value in a winner tbh!

How Soon Is Now

Unlike previous tournaments finding it hard to pin point where to start with bets.

Winner is very uncertain as is top scorer.

The groups and so random this year to with a lot of low level teams.

Gonna have to really study it all bit more. Any good guides online based on top players for each team form tactics etc?

How Soon Is Now

Looked into everything a bit more again tonight and what i have so far as possible bets are these.


Uruguay Spain France Argentina Brazil Germany Belgium and Colombia all to win there groups. 34.85/1


Saudi Arabia Iran and Panama not to score a goal 125/1


Neymar top scorer 12/1

Father Hernandez

2 bets so far

Spain outright, Neymar TGS 80/1

Spain outright, Giroud TGS 250/1

supremenovice

CrabieCrawford wrote: »

Anyone know when the racing post world cup pullout is?

I think there's one in tomorrows edition

hellfish

Salah to be Egypt top goalscorer @ 10/11

RollieFingers

Panama lowest scoring team 17/2

Shanotheslayer

hellfish wrote: »

Salah to be Egypt top goalscorer @ 10/11

Tbh there's probably better value in backing him each game as team FGs.

10/11 I think is a nice lay