Fantasy Premier League Free hit advice?

Morzadec

Porthallian wrote: »

Latest Free Hit draft:
Pope
Kolasinic Otamendi Moreno
Salah Dilva Zaha Richarlison Sanchez (c)
Jesus Morata

Elliot Gomez Mariappa Quaner

Any advice?
I know we all have similar mids.

Maybe Lacazette but unsure about double Arsenal attack.

Sane in for Silva stands out. The rest looks solid.

Weaken your bench if you need more funds for Sane.

I'm a little concerned about Morata and Jesus' playing time so I avoided them, but they probably should be fine

Porthallian

Morzadec wrote: »

Sane in for Silva stands out. The rest looks solid.

Weaken your bench if you need more funds for Sane.

I'm a little concerned about Morata and Jesus' playing time so I avoided them, but they probably should be fine

I wish I'd seen this before 11.30

Morzadec

So how are my fellow Free Hitters looking?

I imagine it's a disappointing afternoon for most unless they went for Kolasinac as their Arsenal defender.

Sanchez blanking is very frustrating and was really going to be the thing to make or break it.

Will be up to 42 when the bonus come in. Need a 15 point game or so from Hazard to have made this worthwhile.

Haven't worked it out but I imagine I'll only be about 10 points better off come the end of the week which can certainly be deemed a waste of a Free Hit.

Hazard (in my free hit team) vs Morata (in my original team) in the next game will say a lot about whether this was a good move

km79

I'll update later in the week but I'm happy so far
49 with vardy moratta and pope to play

I get Jones back
I get Alli for palace
I am not stuck with sanchez and richarlson and an 8 point hit !

Morzadec

km79 wrote: »

I'll update later in the week but I'm happy so far
49 with vardy moratta and pope to play

I get Jones back
I get Alli for palace
I am not stuck with sanchez and richarlson and an 8 point hit !

49 with 3 to play sounds like a very good score for the week that's in it.

Will be interesting when all is said and done how much value the average poster managed to squeeze out of the FH

Benimar

I’m currently 16 points up on where I would have been, but have 3 more players played.

Captain Sanchez was disappointing, but I would have captained Salah so not a huge loss.

Taking Jones out was annoying, but Moreno restricted the damage. The big gains were Sane (for Silva) and possibly Firmino (for Brady). I had Kolasinac anyway.

Hard to know how good or bad that is until we see how the skinny GWs work out.

Edit: current score is 54 from 9.

shineon23

I didn't play the Free Hit in the end as I wasn't sure what I wanted to do.
Was too much of a rush as only started considering it Friday evening.
I was already on -8 and didn't want to get the players I already sold back in.

I'm having a disaster of a week in any case so I'm going to put it in a spread sheet for my sanity, comparing my 3 possible teams.
(i)Team A: as at 20/10 but only changing Kane out for Aguero
(ii)Team B: now on -8 points
(iii)Team C: Rushed Free Hit draft team

As it stands:
Team A is on 28. Aguero (C) Morata (VC)
Team B is on 26(-8). Aguero (C) Salah (VC)
Team C is on 15. Sanchez (C)

I'm fairly happy with the core of Team B going forward so if I keep pace with Team A, I won't be feeling too sorry for myself.

Team A is very speculative anyway I made and early transfer of Aguero in for Lukaku before the Kane news Friday.

Hogey007

Happy with mine, didn't score massive but about 27 points better off so far having used it.

I'm on 39 (after bps) with hazard in this, pope, Duffy & vardy to go. My regular team would have gros, atsu & Elliot to go.

19 points up plus the -8 I saved.

Positives - despite not having a spectacular score, the free hit itself still gained me decent points on my regular team.
- I don't have to transfer Kane back in next week as still have him.

Negative - I have to give Sane back now

normanoffside

Benimar wrote: »

I think km79 summed it up best on the first page of the thread. Would you rather use your Free Hit to bring in Sanchez (c), Sané and Salah today or use it to bring in Robbie Brady and Joselu in a skinny week?

I think the free hit would be best used for an early DGW where you don’t want to be left with the team for the rest of the season. Something like GW32 last year.

I plan to keep the Wildcard+ bench boost for the late season DGW.

macraignil

Morzadec wrote: »

So how are my fellow Free Hitters looking?

I imagine it's a disappointing afternoon for most unless they went for Kolasinac as their Arsenal defender.

Sanchez blanking is very frustrating and was really going to be the thing to make or break it.

Will be up to 42 when the bonus come in. Need a 15 point game or so from Hazard to have made this worthwhile.

Haven't worked it out but I imagine I'll only be about 10 points better off come the end of the week which can certainly be deemed a waste of a Free Hit.

Hazard (in my free hit team) vs Morata (in my original team) in the next game will say a lot about whether this was a good move

Not as bad as my free hit experience anyway. Bet on Sanchez as captain, two Watford midfielders and Man. City keeping clean sheet against West Brom. so looks like my free hit team will get less points than my normal team would have (not that that would have been great either). Only positive is Philips scored and so might get more game time and selling him was the free transfer that was canceled by the free hit. Reckon I'll give him a bit longer to get me some points now.

km79

can confirm 100% that transfers made before free hit also revert back
welcome back Jones
and miki with his price drop

Morzadec

Will end on 51 after bonus.

Not what I'd hoped but not too bad either, Hazard rescuing it a bit.

My main team would have likely ended in the mid-30s. So will make 15 points or so on the chip likely.

Probably not worth it based on my previous assessment of this chip being worth about 25 points. But the logic behind playing was sound, just the big investment in Arsenal didn't quite come off.

Mike Ehrmantraut

Free hit has been a disaster for me, 33pts with 2 to play.
Proved very costly leaving out Hazard and Morata. Only 2 of my picks produced, Sane and to a lesser extent Zaha with an injury time goal.
The rest:
Sanchez(c) 4, Otamendi 0, Monreal 2, Richarlison 1, Jesus 1, Lacazette (still angry with myself for picking him) 2, Salah 4

My main team would have been on 36 -4, with 4 left to play

shineon23

shineon23 wrote: »

I didn't play the Free Hit in the end as I wasn't sure what I wanted to do.
Was too much of a rush as only started considering it Friday evening.
I was already on -8 and didn't want to get the players I already sold back in.

I'm having a disaster of a week in any case so I'm going to put it in a spread sheet for my sanity, comparing my 3 possible teams.
(i)Team A: as at 20/10 but only changing Kane out for Aguero
(ii)Team B: now on -8 points
(iii)Team C: Rushed Free Hit draft team

As it stands:
Team A is on 28. Aguero (C) Morata (VC)
Team B is on 26(-8). Aguero (C) Salah (VC)
Team C is on 15. Sanchez (C)

I'm fairly happy with the core of Team B going forward so if I keep pace with Team A, I won't be feeling too sorry for myself.

Team A is very speculative anyway I made an early transfer of Aguero in for Lukaku before the Kane news Friday.

Update on this
Team A: 44. Atsu & Cedric to Play
Team B: 37(-8) Rooney, Atsu & Cedric to Play
Team C: 31 Rooney and Cedric to Play

So think I've kind of gotten away with staying with Team B with a lot of common players left to play between the 3 teams.

I've held my Free Hit chip, and will hopefully have a clearer plan for it and more funds to work with when I do play it.

Not too concerned with Team A's score as it involved not making my early transfer.

Will try factor in the change in prices/team value and if I decide to take a points hit to try get Kane back in for Palace.

As I said on the matchday thread the Salah penalty miss pretty much killed my gameweek. It was possible that I'd have been 14-20 points off depending on his potential BPS. (Team B-Aguero (C) Salah (VC))

remoteboy

Not sure how much benefit the free hit brought at the end of the day. Probably 10 points or so. But had great craic using the chip. Felt like week 1 all over again. Much more fun than all out attack. Hope they keep this one next season.

SteelyDanJalapeno

It's gotten me an extra 30 points, with pope left to play tomorrow

26 vs 56

Hogey007

Def a success for me with vardy and hazard since I last posted.

57 vs 26 (-8) leaves me 39 points better off.
Free hit team still has pope to play, regular wouldve had Elliot and atsu.

PVA

Looks like a small success for me, should end 15-20 points better off.

56 with Pope still to play, versus 45 (-4) all out on my old team. Chicharito and De Gea trolling me with 9 pointer's though!

Going with Sanchez and Walker over Kolasinac and Hazard was costly, can't get every decision right... Just glad to have a week that wasn't a total an utter disaster

KevIRL

PVA wrote: »

Looks like a small success for me, should end 15-20 points better off.

56 with Pope still to play, versus 45 (-4) all out on my old team. Chicharito and De Gea trolling me with 9 pointer's though!

Going with Sanchez and Walker over Kolasinac and Hazard was costly, can't get every decision right... Just glad to have a week that wasn't a total an utter disaster

Happy enough?

Morzadec

(I'll assume Eliot picks up 2 points tonight for the below analysis)

For me it's 51 FH team vs 38 (-8) on regular team.

So with a 21 point profit, you could say it will likely be neither really a success or failure (probably leaning towards more of a failure however, especially if Eliot keeps a cleany tonight).

It's hard to analyse the week in isolation however, because part of the -8 I would've taken would have been to bring Sane in, which I'm now taking a 4 point hit to do this week, so should I recalculate that 38 (-8) to be a 38 (-4)? I would also have a FT this week which I could have used to improve my bench fodder.

To fund the move for Sane last week (had I not used FH) I would have ditched Davies. Instead I now ditch Monreal. Having Davies (Palace, H) instead of Monreal (City, a) should hopefully be worth 4 points. I would have also ditched Cout for Salah to try and get 11 players out so their upcoming returns need to be factored in.

Instead I now still have Coutinho and Davies, instead of Monreal and Salah had I not used the chip.

If Davies puts up a decent score against Palace next week and in the weeks to come (Spurs have some nice fixtures), and Coutinho can outscore Salah over the next few weeks I'll look back at the FH as a very shrewd move.

If Coutinho is injured longer term then again using this chip seems unwise as I'll have to take a 4 point hit to get him out at some point anyway.

TLDR: For me at least, it's very hard to analyse the benefit of using the chip in isolation of the week at hand because many of us used it so as not to dismantle much of our usual team. So the performances of players like Coutinho and Davies (who I would have subbed out had I not used FH) in the coming weeks will determine whether the FH at this stage was a good idea.

km79

Morzadec wrote: »

(I'll assume Eliot picks up 2 points tonight for the below analysis)

For me it's 51 FH team vs 38 (-8) on regular team.

So with a 21 point profit, you could say it will likely be neither really a success or failure (probably leaning towards more of a failure however, especially if Eliot keeps a cleany tonight).

It's hard to analyse the week in isolation however, because part of the -8 I would've taken would have been to bring Sane in, which I'm now taking a 4 point hit to do this week, so should I recalculate that 38 (-8) to be a 38 (-4)? I would also have a FT this week which I could have used to improve my bench fodder.

To fund the move for Sane last week (had I not used FH) I would have ditched Davies. Instead I now ditch Monreal. Having Davies (Palace, H) instead of Monreal (City, a) should hopefully be worth 4 points. I would have also ditched Cout for Salah to try and get 11 players out so their upcoming returns need to be factored in.

Instead I now still have Coutinho and Davies, instead of Monreal and Salah had I not used the chip.

If Davies puts up a decent score against Palace next week and in the weeks to come (Spurs have some nice fixtures), and Coutinho can outscore Salah over the next few weeks I'll look back at the FH as a very shrewd move.

If Coutinho is injured longer term then again using this chip seems unwise as I'll have to take a 4 point hit to get him out at some point anyway.

TLDR: For me at least, it's very hard to analyse the benefit of using the chip in isolation of the week at hand because many of us used it so as not to dismantle much of our usual team. So the performances of players like Coutinho and Davies (who I would have subbed out had I not used FH) in the coming weeks will determine whether the FH at this stage was a good idea.

This last bit is very important for me and one of the reasons I played few hit in the end
I stupidly sold jones as I assumed it was long term
I immediately wanted him back when he was fit and would have used a FT to get him
Alli was also going and now I have him for palace
Bavies too although I'm not sure he will play

I also dodged a few bullets in who I would have brought in !

km79

Final act was having pope instead of Elliot in taht game (and zaha over Ritchie )

Free hit a massive success for me
Gained me more points than any TC or BB has

And I get Phil jones back
Delighted

Iused2likebusts

Just thinking the jan1 gw could be an idea for the free hit coming two days after the previous gw .Especially with city assets.

Hogey007

km79 wrote: »

Final act was having pope instead of Elliot in taht game (and zaha over Ritchie )

Free hit a massive success for me
Gained me more points than any TC or BB has

And I get Phil jones back
Delighted

Same here, having pope over Elliot brings me to a net gain of 43 points with the free hit.

66 vs 31 (-8)

I have coutinho to thank, it was his injury and lack of captain option that really gave me that final nudge.

shineon23

shineon23 wrote: »

I didn't play the Free Hit in the end as I wasn't sure what I wanted to do.
Was too much of a rush as only started considering it Friday evening.
I was already on -8 and didn't want to get the players I already sold back in.

I'm having a disaster of a week in any case so I'm going to put it in a spread sheet for my sanity, comparing my 3 possible teams.
(i)Team A: as at 20/10 but only changing Kane out for Aguero
(ii)Team B: now on -8 points
(iii)Team C: Rushed Free Hit draft team

As it stands:
Team A is on 28. Aguero (C) Morata (VC)
Team B is on 26(-8). Aguero (C) Salah (VC)
Team C is on 15. Sanchez (C)

I'm fairly happy with the core of Team B going forward so if I keep pace with Team A, I won't be feeling too sorry for myself.

Team A is very speculative anyway I made and early transfer of Aguero in for Lukaku before the Kane news Friday.

shineon23 wrote: »

Update on this
Team A: 44. Atsu & Cedric to Play
Team B: 37(-8) Rooney, Atsu & Cedric to Play
Team C: 31 Rooney and Cedric to Play

So think I've kind of gotten away with staying with Team B with a lot of common players left to play between the 3 teams.

I've held my Free Hit chip, and will hopefully have a clearer plan for it and more funds to work with when I do play it.

Not too concerned with Team A's score as it involved not making my early transfer.

Will try factor in the change in prices/team value and if I decide to take a points hit to try get Kane back in for Palace.

As I said on the matchday thread the Salah penalty miss pretty much killed my gameweek. It was possible that I'd have been 14-20 points off depending on his potential BPS. (Team B-Aguero (C) Salah (VC))

Final on this Update on this
(i)Team A: as at 20/10 but only changing Kane out for Aguero
Team A: 48

(ii)Team B: as I am now on -8 points
Team B: 43(-8)=35

(iii)Team C: Rushed Free Hit draft team
Team C: 35

So in the end I was right not to play the Free Hit, well the way that I was going to play it by ending on the same amount of points.

Team A's higher score hits home that I shouldn't make early transfers.
Points wise the optimal decision would have actually been me banking the transfer and benching Kane for the week. Hindsight is great

I haven't looked at team value changes in depth as there is a lot variables, when changes happened, if I had the player at the time etc.

I may have gained a slight increase of 0.2-0.3 team value with team A but as it stands I've maintained my value so that's good enough for me

Morzadec

I think the free hit in hindsight was a really poor choice from me.

I thought I could avoid a big hit last week as my team was only in bad shape for that week and that I'd be largely in good shape for this week.

The news that Coutinho is likely out means part of the problem still remains. I'm pretty sure Bavies will be rested too. So I'm ending up taking a -8 this week. Probably only a 10-15 gain on the chip then in the end.

I should have just taken a big hit last week and sorted out my bench.

Of course we'll have to see how the skinny week plays out, maybe it'll be manageable but I imagine I'll be cursing using the FH when it comes around!