Euromillions - Three-in-a-row (due!!)

jacool

I decided to post this up, to ensure that I do this, and don’t just think about it, and go mad if it comes up.

3,3,12,15,17,20,24,32,33,34,40,41,42,43,51,51,55,57,61,63,70,81,111

88

1047

46

The top line is the gaps in Euromillions draws between the appearances of 3 consecutive numbers, the lowest being 3 draws, twice, in 2015 and 2016.
The longest gap between such draws is 111 draws, between May 2010 and December 2011.
The second line is the current streak (88) without 3 numbers in-a-row, stretching back to November 2016.
There have been 1047 draws so far, leaving us with an average of one 3 in-a-row per 46 draws.

That leaves me with 111 - 88 = 23 draws until the longest dry run would be equalled, so I can’t resist any longer and I’ll be spending 100 points on every draw from Friday onwards as follows: 48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus 1 bet @2 points on 29,30,31 and 1 bet @2points on 30,31,32. (Personal choices simply to round up the stake)
The return on a treble on the Euromillions is 1500/1 , so one success would yield 3000 points.
This, therefore gives me the next 30 draws to play in this fashion, and would bring me up to the draw on 16-Jan-2018.
I need a win before then to guarantee a profit.
Otherwise, I give up mid-January and one of you steps in and cleans up!!

Of course, there’s no logic – I know that already!
If I had played this bet on every single draw since day one the outcome would have been
Stake 50256 points
Winnings 34523 points
Profit/Loss -15733 points

I just see this as my “window of opportunity”
Note: There has never been a 4 in-a-row in the Euromillions.

jacool

Draw 01 of 30 Friday 06-Oct-2017
100 points staked as 48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus 1 bet @2 points on 29,30,31 and 1 bet @2points on 30,31,32 in PP's.
Bank 3000-100=2900 points

callaway92

Wow

jacool

Draw 01 of 30 Friday 06-Oct-2017: Result 01-09-15-19-25 : Loss 100 points
Bankroll now 2900 points.

Stat 1: This was the first ever time that a draw of all even numbers was followed by a draw of all odd numbers, the significance being that its a guaranteed loss on both draws!
Stat 2: The last two times all 5 numbers came out odd, the number 48 was drawn, so I may change my two "extra" bets to 46,47,48 and 47,48,49!
Will post again when I've staked for Tuesday night.

The current streak is now 89, and the average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.
I have a feeling in my water that I'll hit in the next 3 draws!!!

4068ac1elhodqr

Would agree '48' is a good choice as median, using the selection principle of 'heavy slippy balls'
I.e. The added paint weight and low surface friction (particularly with 8) of '48' will add (slight ?1%) advantage
- for it to fall faster and be selected.

Couple of issues with this idea overall:
- EM is not available online anywhere for this market, shop only.
- 3 sequential from just 5 balls/50 is statistically very low.

What odds are offered in shop?

jacool

Heavenly Pitiful Rope wrote: »

Would agree '48' is a good choice as median, using the selection principle of 'heavy slippy balls'
I.e. The added paint weight and low surface friction (particularly with 8) of '48' will add (slight ?1%) advantage
- for it to fall faster and be selected.

Couple of issues with this idea overall:
- EM is not available online anywhere for this market, shop only.
- 3 sequential from just 5 balls/50 is statistically very low.

What odds are offered in shop?

1500/1
I have done permutations and combinations in Maths but my brain refuses to work out the odds, but knowing PPs it probably about double those odds. If I find out I'll post.

jacool

Draw 02 of 30 Tuesday 11-Oct-2017
100 points staked as 48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus 1 bet @2 points on 47,48,49 and 1 bet @2points on 48,49,50 in PP's again.
Bank 3000-200=2800 points

4068ac1elhodqr

jacool wrote: »

1500/1
I have done permutations and combinations in Maths but my brain refuses to work out the odds, but knowing PPs it probably about double those odds. If I find out I'll post.

Have actually spotted an online location (always thought em's was exempt from this type of thing). @1,500 also, for what is know as 'hotpick/quickpick' of (any) 3/3 correct from 5 main drawn numbers.

That's without any requirement for sequential order. But, then again there is no actual difference in probability for sequence (or not) as any number has the same equal chance of draw. 50/1*3{6%}, 49/1*2{4.08%), 48/1*1{2.08%}

Stats say the odds of getting 3 (on regular ticket) is 314/1. But in this instance means you're only selecting 3 no. in total (not regular 5), hence the higher 1,500/1.

Pick 3 = 1,500
Pick 4 = 33,000
Pick 5 = 500,000^ (3,107,515/1)

^ Getting 5 correct main numbers last Friday would have only got you just €27k (less, if there was more than just the 1 winner in Ire). Even less in the uk with £19.5k each, as the fundpool was shared between 7, with circa 7million ticket sales, due to the mega rollover.

4068ac1elhodqr

As the odds of getting 'any 3 in a row' appear the same as 'quick-hot-pick any 3' perhaps these numbers may be handy:

jacool

Thanks for that Accumulator.
Interesting.

I googled a few Maths puzzles online and think that the answer is 2450/1 actual odds.
Something like 48/50*1/49*1/48 inverse of that! You know it makes sense!

Just feel compelled to stick with the plan now - the only scant crumb from your second post is that 05 and 07 came out twice together. (looking at my stats its actually 3 times since January 2017, once without #01!) so all I need if for 06 to jump in there.

Overall, the most popular treble ever is the only one to have appeared 5 times; 10,19,23
After that are a raft of four-timers including 03,04,43 03,04,50 04,05,23 04,23,24
One final stat of note: Three different triplets have repeated across the 1048 draws: 12,13,14 18,19,20 and 22,23,24 all having been drawn twice.

4068ac1elhodqr

Surprised the 50 total, has been there since 2004 (unlike regular lotto's that keep increasing the threshold almost yearly), to pay fat pension pots.

Surprised too, it only seems that Spoils are offering this specific '3' market online, nothing from Powers regarding EM.

The real shock was that the (more expensive) shop tickets only pay out measly 20kc for 5 main balls as opposed to 500,000 online.
1,5,7 looks tempting.

jacool

Heavenly Pitiful Rope wrote: »

Surprised the 50 total, has been there since 2004 (unlike regular lotto's that keep increasing the threshold almost yearly), to pay fat pension pots.

Surprised too, it only seems that Spoils are offering this specific '3' market online, nothing from Powers regarding EM.

The real shock was that the (more expensive) shop tickets only pay out measly 20kc for 5 main balls as opposed to 500,000 online.
1,5,7 looks tempting.

The 50 numbers have stood the test of time, and the odds of matching 5 from there still weighs in at over 2000000/1. However, the powers that be have twice increased the number of lucky stars, originally 9, then 11 and now 12.
This increased the chances of landing a jackpot from 76,275,360/1 through 116,531,800/1 to the current odds of 139,838,160/1. Don’t need to touch the 50 when you can do that.

as regards, the “3” market, Spoils, PP and Laddies all do that – same for 4 but Laddies won’t take a bet on 5 in case you bankrupt them!
The 500,000 odds are interesting as PP only offer 250,000 or 330,000 I think, but they have a limit twice the size of Spoils!
If you intend winning big, its PP therefore, and clearly, you have to go to the shop!

4068ac1elhodqr

jacool wrote: »

...However, the powers that be have twice increased the number of lucky stars, originally 9, then 11 and now 12.... 139,838,160/1.

That's some nasty odds and a very stealthy increase, more chance of Asteroid 2012 TC4 touching down on Oct 12th, that a designated full win.

Bookies limits can be achieved by using 0.25 (min) or 0.50 unit stakes, and also by availing of an 'informal syndicate arrangement'. Limits are based on 'per day' calculation, so numbers can still be re-used in advancement.

BS actually have two limits 250k or 'Euro Lotto', but also 500k for something called 'lucky Euro Numbers' (which actually doesn't seem to exist online).

jacool

Draw 02 of 30 Tuesday 10-Oct-2017: Result 04-21-34-36-37 : Loss 100 points (Overall loss 200 points)
Bankroll now 2800 points.

This was gut-wrenching in that my odds looked very good for a while.
I felt like Chile after they heard that Argentina had gone 1 down after 36 seconds, and speaking of 36, the first ball out was 36, followed by 4, followed by 37.
That left me with 47 balls left and 2 chances to win, either 35 or 38, so theoretically I was on a 23/1 chance!
Sadly 21 dropped, and then, as a sucker punch 34 fell, just to mean that we had 3 balls of a sequence of 4 
This happened 41 draws ago as well with 09,11,12 but there you were beaten before the end as 11 fell last.

The current streak is now 90, and the average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.
More to come

4068ac1elhodqr

jacool wrote: »

Draw 02 of 30 Tuesday 10-Oct-2017: Result 04-21-34-36-37 : Loss 100 points (Overall loss 200 points)
Bankroll now 2800 points.

This was gut-wrenching in that my odds looked very good for a while.
I felt like Chile after they heard that Argentina had gone 1 down after 36 seconds, and speaking of 36, the first ball out was 36, followed by 4, followed by 37.
That left me with 47 balls left and 2 chances to win, either 35 or 38, so theoretically I was on a 23/1 chance!
Sadly 21 dropped, and then, as a sucker punch 34 fell, just to mean that we had 3 balls of a sequence of 4 
This happened 41 draws ago as well with 09,11,12 but there you were beaten before the end as 11 fell last.

The current streak is now 90, and the average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.
More to come

Just to confirm are your backing 'any' three sequential from 5, and not three specified certain numbers, yet the odds are the same @1,500 in the shop?

Assuming it's 'any three' the odds are way way below having a 'nominated three' @1,500.

supremenovice

Great to see a fellow Euromillions stats follower! Most people think I'm mad :rolleyes: Heres a brilliant lotto stats website that I have as a favourite in Chrome. http://www.lotteryextreme.com/euro_millions/results.php5

My number one bet to follow is the double: 2 & 41 @ 100/1 in the bookies.
Last seen 910 draws ago. It came out twice in the first 140 draws and hasnt been seen now in 11 years. From my research, its by far the longest cold streak of any double combination of the 50 numbers in Euromillions.

4068ac1elhodqr

supremenovice wrote: »

Great to see a fellow Euromillions stats follower! Most people think I'm mad :rolleyes: Heres a brilliant lotto stats website that I have as a favourite in Chrome. http://www.lotteryextreme.com/euro_millions/results.php5

My number one bet to follow is the double: 2 & 41 @ 100/1 in the bookies.
Last seen 910 draws ago. It came out twice in the first 140 draws and hasnt been seen now in 11 years. From my research, its by far the longest cold streak of any double combination of the 50 numbers in Euromillions.

Hope you weren't waiting 11yrs for that combo :pac:. EM has a great stat archive, considering they haven't upped the 50ball count, just the bonus as Jacool remarked.

Of course statistical probability is irrelevant here, as each and every ball has the same chance. A touch of superstition is all it is, no harm in that. Just noticed of the triples combos - anything with '7,17,27' seems to have high frequency.

The best lesson here is just spend .25/.50 via bookies per selection instead of contributing to the retirees pension fund. e.g. pick 5 numbers and see 250k, as opposed to circa 25k via an expensive shop ticket. And if you win large, throw 10% to the donkey-white-leopard-owl sanctuary or whatever floats your boat.

jacool

Draw 03 of 30 Friday 13-Oct-2017: Result 23-29-37-45-50 : Loss 100 points (Overall loss 300 points)
Bankroll now 2700 points.
The current streak is now 91, and the average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.

Welcome aboard supremenovice!! That 02,41 would have frustrated me lately because 16 draws ago it was 02,42, while a mere 6 draws ago 01,41 fell!

Two draws ago 34 popped out after a 54 draw gap, while on Friday 23 came out after a 47 draw gap. Next up will be 16 so!! I'll do 15,16,17 and 16,17,18 as by extra lines tomorrow. Won't be venturing out today

Thanks Accumulator for the voice of reason, but I agree with the superstition angle !!!!!

callaway92

Where can you bet on ‘any three in a row’?

And at what price is it?

4068ac1elhodqr

callaway92 wrote: »

Where can you bet on ‘any three in a row’?

And at what price is it?

Online it appears only Boyles AFAIK, they refer to it as Euro Lotto, but base results on the actual Euro Millions, pick from 3/4/5 from the 5 main. Everyone else seems to just offer the main National draws for web, not Euroballs.

Odds mentioned on previous page(s), I'd still query the availability of 'any' three in a row and the odds for that. Have only seen 'specified' three (1500/1).

Someone reckons it's in some PP shops for 'any' three. Can't imagine 'any' three-in-a-row odds would be anywhere near as high as specified/nominated three.

callaway92

No way is ‘any three in a row’ 1500/1 surely?

That’s why I asked the question. I want to see the wording of the market

4068ac1elhodqr

callaway92 wrote: »

No way is ‘any three in a row’ 1500/1 surely?

That’s why I asked the question. I want to see the wording of the market

Agree, would have doubts that is the case.

jacool

Draw 04 of 30 Tuesday 17-Oct-2017: Result 13-17-19-26-36 : Loss 100 points (Overall loss 400 points)
Bankroll now 2600 points.

The current streak is now 92, and the average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.

This wasn’t as bad as draw 2 but my odds looked good for a little while. First ball out was 19, followed by 26 and then 17.
This left me with odds of 23/1 as I waited on no. 18 but instead I got 13.
I was then out to 45/1 but 36 was the last number.

To explain what I am doing again is this, 100 points staked as 50 different bets, two of these are just to round up the points.
I am staking 2 points on 1,2,3 2 points on 2,3,4 up to 2 points on 47,48,49 and finally 2 points on 48,49,50.
Then I just pick two of these combinations based on whatever I decide!
Last week I did 15,16,17 and 16,17,18 as my bets as I saw that 16 was a ball that hadn’t shown in ages.
Hope that clears up the doubt.
The PP odds for matching any three numbers is 1500/1, irrespective of whether they are consecutive or not.
And as long as I keep losing, they’ll keep taking the bets 

More on Friday, when I'll have another logic for picking the two extra selections.

4068ac1elhodqr

Ah that clarifies up^, so the total spread requirement for 'any' '3-ball-straight' would be x48 separate stakes.

With any consecutive 3ball appearance therefore returning the specified 3ball odds @1,500.
- But in practical terms covering this 'any' 3-ball event, this reduces ROI/odds (net) right down @31.25.

On the other hand if you're only covering the 'statistical lucky number record base' (7) for straight ball appearances e.g. (7,17,27,37),
...you would only need (as below based on any 3-ball-straight that includes any use/appearance of this digit '_/7':

5 6 7, 6 7 8, 7 8 9
15 16 17, 16 17 18, 17 18 19
25...
35...
47...

...you would only require x15 lines, thus a much better net return of @101 (100/1).

Another approach would be using the selection theory of 'heavy slippy balls',
e.g. covering all high numbers 30(+)-50 (x18 lines).

jacool

Heavenly Pitiful Rope wrote: »

Ah that clarifies up^, so the total spread requirement for 'any' '3-ball-straight' would be x48 separate stakes.
Another approach would be using the selection theory of 'heavy slippy balls',
e.g. covering all high numbers 30(+)-50 (x18 lines).

Here's two issues with the "heavy slippy balls" approach.
1. It is part of one of the worst chat up lines ever used and
2. Statistically, the organisers have managed to prevent its occurence!
Here are the stats from the 1051 draws thus far
Most drawn decade 21-30 1100
2nd most drawn 11-20 1070
3rd most drawn 01-10 1053
4th most drawn 41-50 1025
5th most drawn 31-40 1007

For this weekend I am predicting that 30 is due, and putting this alongside the ultra-popular 29, my two extra stakes will be 28,29,30 and 29,30,31.
All my premise is on the three in-a-row being due, even more so now, 5 draws in !!!!

4068ac1elhodqr

jacool wrote: »

Here's two issues with the "heavy slippy balls" approach.
1. It is part of one of the worst chat up lines ever used and
2. Statistically, the organisers have managed to prevent its occurence!
Here are the stats from the 1051 draws thus far
Most drawn decade 21-30 1100
2nd most drawn 11-20 1070
3rd most drawn 01-10 1053
4th most drawn 41-50 1025
5th most drawn 31-40 1007

For this weekend I am predicting that 30 is due, and putting this alongside the ultra-popular 29, my two extra stakes will be 28,29,30 and 29,30,31.
All my premise is on the three in-a-row being due, even more so now, 5 draws in !!!!

Might be best saved for the ladies, but think there is something of value with the heavy slippy balls, ideally they'd be using some lead based paint, but more likely just plastic but still low-friction gloss based application.

Stats below (for 12mths) do support the (10yr stat) appearance of '27'. Along with the fairly slippy high curvature 10, 20, and again 17.



Over the long haul (10yr, below), 50 is the magic singular number, but not relevant here. 25,26,27 is strong:



Summary: x5 lines selections with envisaged net returns @300.20
1yr base = 9,10,11 + 19,20,21
10yr base = 25,26,27 + 36,37,38 & 37,38,39.

Assuming 'lucky slippy design patterns' continue...

jacool

Draw 05 of 30 Friday 17-Oct-2017: Result 04-17-23-27-30 : Loss 100 points (Overall loss 500 points)
Bankroll now 2500 points.

The current streak is now 93, while the average of one 3 in-a-row remains at 46 draws.
The draw order here is insignificant for this bet (04-27-23-30-17) because at no point were numbers drawn close enough to each other.

This was a draw made for Accumulator, who had both 17 and 27 drop!
“Stats below (for 12mths) do support the (10yr stat) appearance of '27'. Along with the fairly slippy high curvature 10, 20, and again 17.”

Other stats of note: 04 has been out in 4 draws of the last 40 and in 3 cases it has been first out.
This is the first Euromillions draw in a long time where all 5 numbers drawn are in the top 40% of numbers drawn.
The lower 50% of numbers drawn have only placed two numbers out of the last 15, and 4 of the last 20.
Of the “shy” numbers 05 and 06 stand out so this week’s two “bonus” selections will be 04,05,06 and 05,06,07
I also see that the latter of these two trebles ties in with Accumulator's stats as well.

Tomorrow night’s draw will mean that 20% of the bankroll will be spent. Have committed now, so have to keep going.

jacool

Draw 06 of 30 Tuesday 24-Oct-2017
100 points staked as 48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus 1 bet @2 points on 04,05,06 and 1 bet @2points on 05,06,07 yet again in PP's.
Bank 3000-600=2400 points
I have now spent 20% of the bankroll and my percentage faith is falling by the same degree

The main optimism for tonight is that the even numbered draws (for me that is) have been the two that showed signs of success early on, whereas I’ve been blown out of the water on all the odd draws(again the odd draws in this scheme).

The last 5 draws have gone like this
1048 15-01-09-25-19
1049 36-04-37-21-34
1050 23-37-50-29-45
1051 19-26-17-13-36
1052 04-27-23-30-17

1053 ??-??-??-??-??

cute geoge

I know they are not in a row but might these no. be the winners and you left them out 49 &50 & 1
50 & 1 & 2

4068ac1elhodqr

Better idea might be to run a new system of safe selections (single balls @9) and occasional doubles.

e.g. Over the last 6mths, running the single lucky slippy balls (x14):

7,17,27,37,47 + 9,10,11 + 19,20,21 + 30,40,50

These in each and every draw, would have returned a steady 105.42% ROI.
This month alone so far (Oct) would have seen 84pts (6draws {so far} x14lines) turn into 108pts (12wins@9) 128% ROI

Evoking double balls (at better odds) using favorable hot balls 20&21 (ls: 14th July),
and anything two-three balls, based around this range: 9-12inc.

supremenovice

Agonisingly close there this evening Jacool:
9, 11, 13, 27, 33.
Just missing the 10 or 12 for a win.

4068ac1elhodqr

Heavenly Pitiful Rope wrote: »

Better idea might be to run a new system of safe selections (single balls @9) and occasional doubles.

e.g. Over the last 6mths, running the single lucky slippy balls (x14):
7,17,27,37,47 + 9,10,11 + 19,20,21 + 30,40,50...

...and anything two-three balls, based around this range: 9-12inc.

Must look at stats record of any 2 (100/1) from 4 in that range
i.e. just 6 lines from 4 for any doubles, would've been net returns @16.6 tonight.

jacool

Draw 06 of 30 Tuesday 24-Oct-2017: Result 09-11-13-27-33 : Loss 100 points (Overall loss 600 points)
Bankroll now 2400 points.

The current streak is now 94, and the average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.

The pure results when looked at afterwards look good, but in reality I was never at the races.
The draw order last night was 27-09-33-13-11
The 11 fell nicely between 09 and 13 but clearly would never have been enough. I would have needed it out 4th to have some kind of a chance.
Two very shy balls fell last night, with 09 making its 99th appearance, even more popular than 33, which was appearing for the 86th time only.
Indeed it has been over 40 draws since 33 appeared – the other 4 balls have all been out in the last 10 draws.

@Accumulator I have to stick with this system now until the money runs out, but then I'll just start using your stats!!

jacool

Draw 07 of 30 Friday 27-Oct-2017
100 points staked as 48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus 1 bet @2 points on 02,17,45 and 1 bet @2points on 17,22,45 yet again in PP's.
Bank 3000-700=2300 points
23% through (expensive) experiment

The draw history for this log is as follows
1048 15-01-09-25-19
1049 36-04-37-21-34
1050 23-37-50-29-45
1051 19-26-17-13-36
1052 04-27-23-30-17
1053 27-09-33-13-11

Slight change to the staking tonight, as I’ve decided that there’s no point in just doubling up on two already placed bets, so I looked at stats “post 33” and am using the most common numbers to drop after 33.

My other stats are pointing me towards numbers ending in 9, so just to log it here I am doing all 5 singles @4 pts and all 10 doubles @2 pts from those 5 numbers this evening, separate from this log.
Just more “points” I feel like losing  but for my own wallet’s sake I’m capturing it here! That stake will be 40 points, with potential returns of 0 points for no numbers , 36 for matching 1 number or 173 for a pair.

jacool

Draw 07 of 30 Friday 27-Oct-2017: Result 03-16-23-32-39 : Loss 100 points (Overall loss 700 points)
Bankroll now 2300 points.

The current streak is now 95 – are we looking at heading into triple figures for the second time ever?
The average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.

The draw order last Friday night was 39-23-16-32-03.
I was never at the races, but speaking of races that I was never at, I’ll be back on the horse again tonight!
It’ll be the last draw on October, falling on Hallowe’en itself. here’s hoping it’s not a horror show for me!

jacool

Draw 08 of 30 Tuesday 41-Oct-2017
100 points staked as 48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus 1 bet @2 points on 04,18,34 and 1 bet @2points on 04,31,35 yet again in PP's.
Bank 3000-800=2200 points
27% through (expensive) experiment

The draw history for this log is as follows
1048 15-01-09-25-19
1049 36-04-37-21-34
1050 23-37-50-29-45
1051 19-26-17-13-36
1052 04-27-23-30-17
1053 27-09-33-13-11
1054 39-23-16-32-03

Slight change to the staking tonight, as I’ve decided that there’s no point in just doubling up on two already placed bets, so I looked at stats “post 16” a number that has only dropped 3 times in the last 100 draws. This gives me these two trebles for tonight, both @2 points 04,18,34 and 04,31,35

Note: My other stats in the last draw pointed me towards numbers ending in 9, so I did all 5 singles @4 pts and all 10 doubles @2 pts from those 5 numbers.
39 came out to leave me down 4 points on this one off caper.

jacool

Draw 09 of 30 Friday 03-Nov-2017
100 points staked as 48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus 1 bet @2 points on 09,19,29 and 1 bet @2points on 29,39,49 yet again in PP's.
Bank 3000-900=2210 points
30% through (expensive) experiment

Draw 09 of 30 Friday 03-Nov-2017 Result 01-12-36-43-46 : Loss 100 points (Overall loss 900 points)
Bankroll now 2100 points.

The streak for having no appearance for 3 in-a-row now stretches to 97!
The average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.

The draw order last night was 41-05-33-17-12
Never near anything
Amazingly, the week after the shyest ball 46 drops, the two joint second shyest balls 33 and 41 both drop!
Does this mean that 47 is coming tomorrow night?
Someone in the UK won the draw, so I’m guessing that was a quick pick.
I’ll be back with my 2 extra picks tomorrow, when I arrive at a third of the way through this experiment.

jacool

Draw 10 of 30 Tuesday 07-Nov-2017
100 points staked as
48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus four bets, each of 1 unit
1 bet @1 point on 06-18-19, 1 bet @1 point on 06-37-38, 1 bet @1 point on 17-22-23 and 1 bet @1point on 17-26-27 in PP's.
Bank 3000-1000=2000 points
33% through (expensive) experiment

The draw history for this log is as follows
1048 15-01-09-25-19
1049 36-04-37-21-34
1050 23-37-50-29-45
1051 19-26-17-13-36
1052 04-27-23-30-17
1053 27-09-33-13-11
1054 39-23-16-32-03
1055 41-05-33-17-12
1056 ??-??-??-??-??

And so we edge closer to the first anniversary of the last three-in-a-row.
Draw 959 was that draw, although I won’t be able to afford a Porsche if I win here 
That was on 29-Nov-2016, so we are 22 days off that now.
Since then, the closest two draws were successive draws, both containing the 40-41 combo.
On 04-Aug-2017 the numbers came out like this 29-30-41-40-36, meaning that after the first two numbers the odds were hugely in favour as 28 and 31 would have both been winners, and there were three more balls to be selected. That was a 23/1 chance, but then 41 and 40 dropped to bring the odds down to 11/1.
The following draw had the order 26-15-40-25-41, so only the numbers 24 and 27 would have been winners on the last drop 23/1 odds.
Right now, I would take a sweat like the first of those two draws.
I feel like we’re due a double tonight, it would be great if they were the first two balls out!

jacool

Draw 10 of 30 Tuesday 07-Nov-2017 RESULTS 07-19-20-37-41 LOSS of 100 points
Bank has now decreased from 3000 to 2000 points

In the last write-up I mentioned how 41 had fallen twice in a row, and hey presto, out it popped again for a repeat showing.
Last time out it was first out, but on Tuesday it dropped as the middle ball, sandwiched between 19 and 20.
All these balls had followed out 37, leaving me with a 23/1 chance of a win on the last ball, needing either 18 or 21.
Instead it was 07, so I lost again

I said I felt we were due a double and so it turned out, but sadly, just that.
The streak for having no appearance for 3 in-a-row now stretches to 98, two shy of triple figures, for what would only be the second time.
The average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.

The draw history for this log is as follows
1048 15-01-09-25-19
1049 36-04-37-21-34
1050 23-37-50-29-45
1051 19-26-17-13-36
1052 04-27-23-30-17
1053 27-09-33-13-11
1054 39-23-16-32-03
1055 41-05-33-17-12
1056 37-19-41-20-07

back for more tomorrow

4068ac1elhodqr

jacool wrote: »

Draw 10 of 30 Tuesday 07-Nov-2017

The draw history for this log is as follows
1048 15-01-09-25-19
1049 36-04-37-21-34
1050 23-37-50-29-45
1051 19-26-17-13-36
1052 04-27-23-30-17
1053 27-09-33-13-11
1054 39-23-16-32-03
1055 41-05-33-17-12
1056 37-19-41-20-07

That's 50% of the 'lucky-slippy balls' (balls with zeros or sevens) that I'd tend to favour there on Tues. Singular picks appear idea if the odds were more generous @9 (8/1).

Stats: 12 luckies / 45 totalballs, so every 3.75 is luckyball/10 previous draws.
With ideal luckies: 7, 10, 17, 30, 27, 30, 37, 40, 47, 50 == 10 lines,
but on rough calculation shows only small positive margin of 96pt/106%ROI.

Didn't make it into any shops, and this event isn't easily available online. Spoils show up as having the market (via googlebot search) but when processing it reverts/errors into the other 49's event.

jacool

Draw 11 of 30 Friday 10-Nov-2017
100 points staked as
48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus four bets, each of 1 unit
1 bet @1 point on 22-23-45, 1 bet @1 point on 24-25-45, 1 bet @1 point on 22-42-43 and 1 bet @1point on 25-44-45 in PP's.
My stats are skewing me to the 20s and 40s tonight!

Bank 3000-1100=1900 points
37% through (expensive) experiment

jacool

Draw 11 of 30 Friday 10-Nov-2017 RESULTS 13-22-29-36-37 LOSS of 100 points
bankroll = 1900 points

The streak for having no appearance for 3 in-a-row now stretches to 99, and I’m feeling a little flaky after that draw
The average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.
Saturday’s first number out was the same as last Tuesday’s as 37 popped out again, this time followed by, yes, 36 !!!
I thought that Christmas might be coming early, so settled in for the next number, only to see 29, then 22 and finally, unlucky for me, 13.
My Maths brain isn’t awake yet, but I think the odds were less than 10/1 after the first two numbers fell. I hope that’s not the closest I get.

I'm impressed that I got #22 in two of my extra lines, as that was its first showing in 35 draws!

The draw history for this log is as follows
1048 15-01-09-25-19
1049 36-04-37-21-34
1050 23-37-50-29-45
1051 19-26-17-13-36
1052 04-27-23-30-17
1053 27-09-33-13-11
1054 39-23-16-32-03
1055 41-05-33-17-12
1056 37-19-41-20-07
1057 37-36-29-22-13

back for more tomorrow!

4068ac1elhodqr

That lucky '37' must be nearly outperforming the 10yr high-freq '50' by now...
The bookies odds @9 : 8/1 for singular is still showing just about break-even-point even using the full luckies set (zeros & sevens).

5 pts/lines featuring any '7' is still however favourable with 8pts (or more) returning almost every week
i.e. 11 appearances over 10draws (88pts from 50) 156.818181818182% ROI


16pts for the last fortnight...

jacool

Heavenly Pitiful Rope wrote: »

That lucky '37' must be nearly outperforming the 10yr high-freq '50' by now...

50 124 draws
19 122
44 121
37 120

I colour-coded the numbers back when I started doing the stats, top 10, next 10, next 10 etc. looking at those now I can see that 10, 27 and 30 have made massive progress in that time, 37 was always a popular number. All these numbers play into your lists.

jacool

Draw 12 of 30 Tuesday 14-Nov-2017
100 points staked as
48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus four bets, each of 1 unit
1 bet @1 point on 05-24-39, 1 bet @1 point on 05-13-38, 1 bet @1 point on 13-24-38 and 1 bet @1point on 24-38-39 in PP's.
My stats are based on draws following the appearance of 22.

Bank 3000-1200=1800 points
Exactly 40% through (expensive) experiment

If three consecutive numbers are not drawn tonight, then that will be draw 100 without, and only the second time ever that this has gone into triple figures.

Ball x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 x9 x0
Freq. 520 492 520 552 545 498 550 500 552 561
This shows that balls ending in “0” are the most popular

supremenovice

Winner alright!! Congratulations man!
39,40,41
Perseverance pays Off!!!

IncognitoMan

Well played, enjoyed reading the thread and will be keeping an eye out for the next one if you do any.

4068ac1elhodqr

1500/1 return if you have 39,40,41 clearly written on your betslip at the bookies tomorrow morning



What's the next approach, how's about double stake for lucky doubles
e.g. 20&37, or 27&30 for a nice 100/1 ?

supremenovice

Heavenly Pitiful Rope wrote: »

What's the next approach, how's about double stake for lucky doubles
e.g. 20&37, or 27&30 for a nice 100/1 ?

How about hammering into my 919 long streak of 2, 41. 100/1 when it lands.
Its been breaking my heart since August 2016 when I first discovered this cold streak.

4068ac1elhodqr

supremenovice wrote: »

How about hammering into my 919 long streak of 2, 41. 100/1 when it lands.
Its been breaking my heart since August 2016 when I first discovered this cold streak.

2 = cold and not heavy 41 = not slippy, or lucky.

Prefer the balls that fit the criteria of lucky (7's) slippy (0's) or heavy (44,48..)
100/1 for a pair isn't bad, now that the triple if off the table for a while.

Whilst considering Ja's effort to achieve the hatrick, it's not overly rewarding as the effort (if/to cover all bases is 48 pts/lines) over 'just 15.6wks' (on each Tue&Fri draw) equates to the *break-even-point of 1,500. I.e. There is typically only a 4 month window in which to succeed. In this instance the Jacool did it in approx just 35% of the allocated BEP* time, so 300%c ROI.

jacool

Draw 12 of 30 Tuesday 14-Nov-2017 RESULTS 14-16-39-40-41 win of 3002 points !!!!!!
100 points staked as
48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus four bets, each of 1 unit
1 bet @1 point on 05-24-39, 1 bet @1 point on 05-13-38, 1 bet @1 point on 13-24-38 and 1 bet @1point on 24-38-39 in PP's.

Exactly 40% through (expensive) experiment, and nailed it!
Money staked 1200 points, winnings 3002 – profit 1802 points !!

The streak for having no appearance for 3 in-a-row reached 99 and no further!
The average of one 3 in-a-row drops from 46 to 44 draws.
This is the 24th such draw since the Euromillions began.
What this means is that if you placed my bet from day 1 it would have cost 50832 points.
Last night’s draw brought potential winnings therefore to 36024. leaving an overall loss of -14808 points!
So, I guess you have to be selective as to when you start playing!!
This trio of results is the reason why I may play again in three draws time
828 28 August 2015 3
861 22 December 2015 33
864 01 January 2016 3
In 2015, three draws after 10-11-12 fell on 18-August, we saw 29-30-31 drop on 28th of August.
Similarly, we saw 18-19-20 out before Christmas on 22nd of December, followed by 37-38-39 on the day when all is quiet, January 1st 2016. For those reasons, I’ll be back in Paddy’s on Friday week, staking a final 100 points.

For the record, last night’s first number out was 16, and then bang, bang, bang, like busses in the rain 40, 39 and 41 fell to guarantee the win, with 14 coming out last.

The draw history for this log is as follows
1048 15-01-09-25-19
1049 36-04-37-21-34
1050 23-37-50-29-45
1051 19-26-17-13-36
1052 04-27-23-30-17
1053 27-09-33-13-11
1054 39-23-16-32-03
1055 41-05-33-17-12
1056 37-19-41-20-07
1057 37-36-29-22-13
1058 16-40-39-41-14

I put the log up because that was the main thing that I knew would guarantee me heading into town twice a week to place the bet.
Thanks to everyone who read, contributed and sowed the seeds for perhaps another adventure!
I have all the stats here burning a hole in my pocket, but Accumulator’s take on them is quite interesting.
As I’ve said, I’ll place the bet again on Friday 24th November, and see what I’ll do after that.

I’ll also break supremenovice’s heart with stats about the number 02, seeing as 41 has been out 3 of the last 4 draws now!


Can’t wait to roll up to PPs today and collect!