Euromillions - Three-in-a-row (due!!)

jacool

I decided to post this up, to ensure that I do this, and don’t just think about it, and go mad if it comes up.

3,3,12,15,17,20,24,32,33,34,40,41,42,43,51,51,55,57,61,63,70,81,111

88

1047

46

The top line is the gaps in Euromillions draws between the appearances of 3 consecutive numbers, the lowest being 3 draws, twice, in 2015 and 2016.
The longest gap between such draws is 111 draws, between May 2010 and December 2011.
The second line is the current streak (88) without 3 numbers in-a-row, stretching back to November 2016.
There have been 1047 draws so far, leaving us with an average of one 3 in-a-row per 46 draws.

That leaves me with 111 - 88 = 23 draws until the longest dry run would be equalled, so I can’t resist any longer and I’ll be spending 100 points on every draw from Friday onwards as follows: 48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus 1 bet @2 points on 29,30,31 and 1 bet @2points on 30,31,32. (Personal choices simply to round up the stake)
The return on a treble on the Euromillions is 1500/1 , so one success would yield 3000 points.
This, therefore gives me the next 30 draws to play in this fashion, and would bring me up to the draw on 16-Jan-2018.
I need a win before then to guarantee a profit.
Otherwise, I give up mid-January and one of you steps in and cleans up!!

Of course, there’s no logic – I know that already!
If I had played this bet on every single draw since day one the outcome would have been
Stake 50256 points
Winnings 34523 points
Profit/Loss -15733 points

I just see this as my “window of opportunity”
Note: There has never been a 4 in-a-row in the Euromillions.

jacool

Draw 01 of 30 Friday 06-Oct-2017
100 points staked as 48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus 1 bet @2 points on 29,30,31 and 1 bet @2points on 30,31,32 in PP's.
Bank 3000-100=2900 points

callaway92

Wow

jacool

Draw 01 of 30 Friday 06-Oct-2017: Result 01-09-15-19-25 : Loss 100 points
Bankroll now 2900 points.

Stat 1: This was the first ever time that a draw of all even numbers was followed by a draw of all odd numbers, the significance being that its a guaranteed loss on both draws!
Stat 2: The last two times all 5 numbers came out odd, the number 48 was drawn, so I may change my two "extra" bets to 46,47,48 and 47,48,49!
Will post again when I've staked for Tuesday night.

The current streak is now 89, and the average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.
I have a feeling in my water that I'll hit in the next 3 draws!!!

4068ac1elhodqr

Would agree '48' is a good choice as median, using the selection principle of 'heavy slippy balls'
I.e. The added paint weight and low surface friction (particularly with 8) of '48' will add (slight ?1%) advantage
- for it to fall faster and be selected.

Couple of issues with this idea overall:
- EM is not available online anywhere for this market, shop only.
- 3 sequential from just 5 balls/50 is statistically very low.

What odds are offered in shop?

jacool

Heavenly Pitiful Rope wrote: »

Would agree '48' is a good choice as median, using the selection principle of 'heavy slippy balls'
I.e. The added paint weight and low surface friction (particularly with 8) of '48' will add (slight ?1%) advantage
- for it to fall faster and be selected.

Couple of issues with this idea overall:
- EM is not available online anywhere for this market, shop only.
- 3 sequential from just 5 balls/50 is statistically very low.

What odds are offered in shop?

1500/1
I have done permutations and combinations in Maths but my brain refuses to work out the odds, but knowing PPs it probably about double those odds. If I find out I'll post.

jacool

Draw 02 of 30 Tuesday 11-Oct-2017
100 points staked as 48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus 1 bet @2 points on 47,48,49 and 1 bet @2points on 48,49,50 in PP's again.
Bank 3000-200=2800 points

4068ac1elhodqr

jacool wrote: »

1500/1
I have done permutations and combinations in Maths but my brain refuses to work out the odds, but knowing PPs it probably about double those odds. If I find out I'll post.

Have actually spotted an online location (always thought em's was exempt from this type of thing). @1,500 also, for what is know as 'hotpick/quickpick' of (any) 3/3 correct from 5 main drawn numbers.

That's without any requirement for sequential order. But, then again there is no actual difference in probability for sequence (or not) as any number has the same equal chance of draw. 50/1*3{6%}, 49/1*2{4.08%), 48/1*1{2.08%}

Stats say the odds of getting 3 (on regular ticket) is 314/1. But in this instance means you're only selecting 3 no. in total (not regular 5), hence the higher 1,500/1.

Pick 3 = 1,500
Pick 4 = 33,000
Pick 5 = 500,000^ (3,107,515/1)

^ Getting 5 correct main numbers last Friday would have only got you just €27k (less, if there was more than just the 1 winner in Ire). Even less in the uk with £19.5k each, as the fundpool was shared between 7, with circa 7million ticket sales, due to the mega rollover.

4068ac1elhodqr

As the odds of getting 'any 3 in a row' appear the same as 'quick-hot-pick any 3' perhaps these numbers may be handy:

jacool

Thanks for that Accumulator.
Interesting.

I googled a few Maths puzzles online and think that the answer is 2450/1 actual odds.
Something like 48/50*1/49*1/48 inverse of that! You know it makes sense!

Just feel compelled to stick with the plan now - the only scant crumb from your second post is that 05 and 07 came out twice together. (looking at my stats its actually 3 times since January 2017, once without #01!) so all I need if for 06 to jump in there.

Overall, the most popular treble ever is the only one to have appeared 5 times; 10,19,23
After that are a raft of four-timers including 03,04,43 03,04,50 04,05,23 04,23,24
One final stat of note: Three different triplets have repeated across the 1048 draws: 12,13,14 18,19,20 and 22,23,24 all having been drawn twice.

4068ac1elhodqr

Surprised the 50 total, has been there since 2004 (unlike regular lotto's that keep increasing the threshold almost yearly), to pay fat pension pots.

Surprised too, it only seems that Spoils are offering this specific '3' market online, nothing from Powers regarding EM.

The real shock was that the (more expensive) shop tickets only pay out measly 20kc for 5 main balls as opposed to 500,000 online.
1,5,7 looks tempting.

jacool

Heavenly Pitiful Rope wrote: »

Surprised the 50 total, has been there since 2004 (unlike regular lotto's that keep increasing the threshold almost yearly), to pay fat pension pots.

Surprised too, it only seems that Spoils are offering this specific '3' market online, nothing from Powers regarding EM.

The real shock was that the (more expensive) shop tickets only pay out measly 20kc for 5 main balls as opposed to 500,000 online.
1,5,7 looks tempting.

The 50 numbers have stood the test of time, and the odds of matching 5 from there still weighs in at over 2000000/1. However, the powers that be have twice increased the number of lucky stars, originally 9, then 11 and now 12.
This increased the chances of landing a jackpot from 76,275,360/1 through 116,531,800/1 to the current odds of 139,838,160/1. Don’t need to touch the 50 when you can do that.

as regards, the “3” market, Spoils, PP and Laddies all do that – same for 4 but Laddies won’t take a bet on 5 in case you bankrupt them!
The 500,000 odds are interesting as PP only offer 250,000 or 330,000 I think, but they have a limit twice the size of Spoils!
If you intend winning big, its PP therefore, and clearly, you have to go to the shop!

4068ac1elhodqr

jacool wrote: »

...However, the powers that be have twice increased the number of lucky stars, originally 9, then 11 and now 12.... 139,838,160/1.

That's some nasty odds and a very stealthy increase, more chance of Asteroid 2012 TC4 touching down on Oct 12th, that a designated full win.

Bookies limits can be achieved by using 0.25 (min) or 0.50 unit stakes, and also by availing of an 'informal syndicate arrangement'. Limits are based on 'per day' calculation, so numbers can still be re-used in advancement.

BS actually have two limits 250k or 'Euro Lotto', but also 500k for something called 'lucky Euro Numbers' (which actually doesn't seem to exist online).

jacool

Draw 02 of 30 Tuesday 10-Oct-2017: Result 04-21-34-36-37 : Loss 100 points (Overall loss 200 points)
Bankroll now 2800 points.

This was gut-wrenching in that my odds looked very good for a while.
I felt like Chile after they heard that Argentina had gone 1 down after 36 seconds, and speaking of 36, the first ball out was 36, followed by 4, followed by 37.
That left me with 47 balls left and 2 chances to win, either 35 or 38, so theoretically I was on a 23/1 chance!
Sadly 21 dropped, and then, as a sucker punch 34 fell, just to mean that we had 3 balls of a sequence of 4 
This happened 41 draws ago as well with 09,11,12 but there you were beaten before the end as 11 fell last.

The current streak is now 90, and the average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.
More to come

4068ac1elhodqr

jacool wrote: »

Draw 02 of 30 Tuesday 10-Oct-2017: Result 04-21-34-36-37 : Loss 100 points (Overall loss 200 points)
Bankroll now 2800 points.

This was gut-wrenching in that my odds looked very good for a while.
I felt like Chile after they heard that Argentina had gone 1 down after 36 seconds, and speaking of 36, the first ball out was 36, followed by 4, followed by 37.
That left me with 47 balls left and 2 chances to win, either 35 or 38, so theoretically I was on a 23/1 chance!
Sadly 21 dropped, and then, as a sucker punch 34 fell, just to mean that we had 3 balls of a sequence of 4 
This happened 41 draws ago as well with 09,11,12 but there you were beaten before the end as 11 fell last.

The current streak is now 90, and the average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.
More to come

Just to confirm are your backing 'any' three sequential from 5, and not three specified certain numbers, yet the odds are the same @1,500 in the shop?

Assuming it's 'any three' the odds are way way below having a 'nominated three' @1,500.

supremenovice

Great to see a fellow Euromillions stats follower! Most people think I'm mad :rolleyes: Heres a brilliant lotto stats website that I have as a favourite in Chrome. http://www.lotteryextreme.com/euro_millions/results.php5

My number one bet to follow is the double: 2 & 41 @ 100/1 in the bookies.
Last seen 910 draws ago. It came out twice in the first 140 draws and hasnt been seen now in 11 years. From my research, its by far the longest cold streak of any double combination of the 50 numbers in Euromillions.

4068ac1elhodqr

supremenovice wrote: »

Great to see a fellow Euromillions stats follower! Most people think I'm mad :rolleyes: Heres a brilliant lotto stats website that I have as a favourite in Chrome. http://www.lotteryextreme.com/euro_millions/results.php5

My number one bet to follow is the double: 2 & 41 @ 100/1 in the bookies.
Last seen 910 draws ago. It came out twice in the first 140 draws and hasnt been seen now in 11 years. From my research, its by far the longest cold streak of any double combination of the 50 numbers in Euromillions.

Hope you weren't waiting 11yrs for that combo :pac:. EM has a great stat archive, considering they haven't upped the 50ball count, just the bonus as Jacool remarked.

Of course statistical probability is irrelevant here, as each and every ball has the same chance. A touch of superstition is all it is, no harm in that. Just noticed of the triples combos - anything with '7,17,27' seems to have high frequency.

The best lesson here is just spend .25/.50 via bookies per selection instead of contributing to the retirees pension fund. e.g. pick 5 numbers and see 250k, as opposed to circa 25k via an expensive shop ticket. And if you win large, throw 10% to the donkey-white-leopard-owl sanctuary or whatever floats your boat.

jacool

Draw 03 of 30 Friday 13-Oct-2017: Result 23-29-37-45-50 : Loss 100 points (Overall loss 300 points)
Bankroll now 2700 points.
The current streak is now 91, and the average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.

Welcome aboard supremenovice!! That 02,41 would have frustrated me lately because 16 draws ago it was 02,42, while a mere 6 draws ago 01,41 fell!

Two draws ago 34 popped out after a 54 draw gap, while on Friday 23 came out after a 47 draw gap. Next up will be 16 so!! I'll do 15,16,17 and 16,17,18 as by extra lines tomorrow. Won't be venturing out today

Thanks Accumulator for the voice of reason, but I agree with the superstition angle !!!!!

callaway92

Where can you bet on ‘any three in a row’?

And at what price is it?

4068ac1elhodqr

callaway92 wrote: »

Where can you bet on ‘any three in a row’?

And at what price is it?

Online it appears only Boyles AFAIK, they refer to it as Euro Lotto, but base results on the actual Euro Millions, pick from 3/4/5 from the 5 main. Everyone else seems to just offer the main National draws for web, not Euroballs.

Odds mentioned on previous page(s), I'd still query the availability of 'any' three in a row and the odds for that. Have only seen 'specified' three (1500/1).

Someone reckons it's in some PP shops for 'any' three. Can't imagine 'any' three-in-a-row odds would be anywhere near as high as specified/nominated three.

callaway92

No way is ‘any three in a row’ 1500/1 surely?

That’s why I asked the question. I want to see the wording of the market

4068ac1elhodqr

callaway92 wrote: »

No way is ‘any three in a row’ 1500/1 surely?

That’s why I asked the question. I want to see the wording of the market

Agree, would have doubts that is the case.

jacool

Draw 04 of 30 Tuesday 17-Oct-2017: Result 13-17-19-26-36 : Loss 100 points (Overall loss 400 points)
Bankroll now 2600 points.

The current streak is now 92, and the average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.

This wasn’t as bad as draw 2 but my odds looked good for a little while. First ball out was 19, followed by 26 and then 17.
This left me with odds of 23/1 as I waited on no. 18 but instead I got 13.
I was then out to 45/1 but 36 was the last number.

To explain what I am doing again is this, 100 points staked as 50 different bets, two of these are just to round up the points.
I am staking 2 points on 1,2,3 2 points on 2,3,4 up to 2 points on 47,48,49 and finally 2 points on 48,49,50.
Then I just pick two of these combinations based on whatever I decide!
Last week I did 15,16,17 and 16,17,18 as my bets as I saw that 16 was a ball that hadn’t shown in ages.
Hope that clears up the doubt.
The PP odds for matching any three numbers is 1500/1, irrespective of whether they are consecutive or not.
And as long as I keep losing, they’ll keep taking the bets 

More on Friday, when I'll have another logic for picking the two extra selections.

4068ac1elhodqr

Ah that clarifies up^, so the total spread requirement for 'any' '3-ball-straight' would be x48 separate stakes.

With any consecutive 3ball appearance therefore returning the specified 3ball odds @1,500.
- But in practical terms covering this 'any' 3-ball event, this reduces ROI/odds (net) right down @31.25.

On the other hand if you're only covering the 'statistical lucky number record base' (7) for straight ball appearances e.g. (7,17,27,37),
...you would only need (as below based on any 3-ball-straight that includes any use/appearance of this digit '_/7':

5 6 7, 6 7 8, 7 8 9
15 16 17, 16 17 18, 17 18 19
25...
35...
47...

...you would only require x15 lines, thus a much better net return of @101 (100/1).

Another approach would be using the selection theory of 'heavy slippy balls',
e.g. covering all high numbers 30(+)-50 (x18 lines).

jacool

Heavenly Pitiful Rope wrote: »

Ah that clarifies up^, so the total spread requirement for 'any' '3-ball-straight' would be x48 separate stakes.
Another approach would be using the selection theory of 'heavy slippy balls',
e.g. covering all high numbers 30(+)-50 (x18 lines).

Here's two issues with the "heavy slippy balls" approach.
1. It is part of one of the worst chat up lines ever used and
2. Statistically, the organisers have managed to prevent its occurence!
Here are the stats from the 1051 draws thus far
Most drawn decade 21-30 1100
2nd most drawn 11-20 1070
3rd most drawn 01-10 1053
4th most drawn 41-50 1025
5th most drawn 31-40 1007

For this weekend I am predicting that 30 is due, and putting this alongside the ultra-popular 29, my two extra stakes will be 28,29,30 and 29,30,31.
All my premise is on the three in-a-row being due, even more so now, 5 draws in !!!!

4068ac1elhodqr

jacool wrote: »

Here's two issues with the "heavy slippy balls" approach.
1. It is part of one of the worst chat up lines ever used and
2. Statistically, the organisers have managed to prevent its occurence!
Here are the stats from the 1051 draws thus far
Most drawn decade 21-30 1100
2nd most drawn 11-20 1070
3rd most drawn 01-10 1053
4th most drawn 41-50 1025
5th most drawn 31-40 1007

For this weekend I am predicting that 30 is due, and putting this alongside the ultra-popular 29, my two extra stakes will be 28,29,30 and 29,30,31.
All my premise is on the three in-a-row being due, even more so now, 5 draws in !!!!

Might be best saved for the ladies, but think there is something of value with the heavy slippy balls, ideally they'd be using some lead based paint, but more likely just plastic but still low-friction gloss based application.

Stats below (for 12mths) do support the (10yr stat) appearance of '27'. Along with the fairly slippy high curvature 10, 20, and again 17.



Over the long haul (10yr, below), 50 is the magic singular number, but not relevant here. 25,26,27 is strong:



Summary: x5 lines selections with envisaged net returns @300.20
1yr base = 9,10,11 + 19,20,21
10yr base = 25,26,27 + 36,37,38 & 37,38,39.

Assuming 'lucky slippy design patterns' continue...

jacool

Draw 05 of 30 Friday 17-Oct-2017: Result 04-17-23-27-30 : Loss 100 points (Overall loss 500 points)
Bankroll now 2500 points.

The current streak is now 93, while the average of one 3 in-a-row remains at 46 draws.
The draw order here is insignificant for this bet (04-27-23-30-17) because at no point were numbers drawn close enough to each other.

This was a draw made for Accumulator, who had both 17 and 27 drop!
“Stats below (for 12mths) do support the (10yr stat) appearance of '27'. Along with the fairly slippy high curvature 10, 20, and again 17.”

Other stats of note: 04 has been out in 4 draws of the last 40 and in 3 cases it has been first out.
This is the first Euromillions draw in a long time where all 5 numbers drawn are in the top 40% of numbers drawn.
The lower 50% of numbers drawn have only placed two numbers out of the last 15, and 4 of the last 20.
Of the “shy” numbers 05 and 06 stand out so this week’s two “bonus” selections will be 04,05,06 and 05,06,07
I also see that the latter of these two trebles ties in with Accumulator's stats as well.

Tomorrow night’s draw will mean that 20% of the bankroll will be spent. Have committed now, so have to keep going.

jacool

Draw 06 of 30 Tuesday 24-Oct-2017
100 points staked as 48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus 1 bet @2 points on 04,05,06 and 1 bet @2points on 05,06,07 yet again in PP's.
Bank 3000-600=2400 points
I have now spent 20% of the bankroll and my percentage faith is falling by the same degree

The main optimism for tonight is that the even numbered draws (for me that is) have been the two that showed signs of success early on, whereas I’ve been blown out of the water on all the odd draws(again the odd draws in this scheme).

The last 5 draws have gone like this
1048 15-01-09-25-19
1049 36-04-37-21-34
1050 23-37-50-29-45
1051 19-26-17-13-36
1052 04-27-23-30-17

1053 ??-??-??-??-??

cute geoge

I know they are not in a row but might these no. be the winners and you left them out 49 &50 & 1
50 & 1 & 2

4068ac1elhodqr

Better idea might be to run a new system of safe selections (single balls @9) and occasional doubles.

e.g. Over the last 6mths, running the single lucky slippy balls (x14):

7,17,27,37,47 + 9,10,11 + 19,20,21 + 30,40,50

These in each and every draw, would have returned a steady 105.42% ROI.
This month alone so far (Oct) would have seen 84pts (6draws {so far} x14lines) turn into 108pts (12wins@9) 128% ROI

Evoking double balls (at better odds) using favorable hot balls 20&21 (ls: 14th July),
and anything two-three balls, based around this range: 9-12inc.

supremenovice

Agonisingly close there this evening Jacool:
9, 11, 13, 27, 33.
Just missing the 10 or 12 for a win.