Arc De Triomphe 2017

tryfix

Not long now until this year's Arc, with Enable practically being nailed on there's not a lot of interest in taking her on.

Best Odds

Enable 11/10
Ulysses 8/1
Cracksman 10/1
Order Of St George 12/1
Dschingis Secret 14/1
Highland Reel 14/1
Zarak 16/1
Winter 16/1
Brametot 16/1
Capri 20/1
Satano Diamond 20/1
Bateel 25/1

25/1 bar

If you fancy taking on the mighty Enable then the prices now are very tasty on the rest and there's always the possibility that she might have to miss the race. In which case the prices on the rest will practically halve.

tryfix

O'Brien is considering 4 for the contest with his wonder filly Winter supposedly under serious consideration for it.

I won't believe Winter is running until she turns up at the start. If she was on track for it she'd be a lot lower in price at the moment.

Order Of St George has definite place prospects again but I doubt he could win such a 12f race.

Highland Reel has gone under the radar, one poor run on unsuitable ground has seem him largely forgotten about. He's entitled to a lot of respect if he turns up on reasonable ground. He's also beaten big race winners Ulysses and Decorated Knight over a trip that was short of his best.

Capri seems to be too big a price to be an expected runner. I know he's a lowly Leger winner but he's a very tough horse to pass.

WickIow Brave

If there's any firm in the description then Ulysses is a huge price. How is he only 2 points shorter than Cracksman? I think he'll get a lot closer to Enable this time. No way should there be that much of a difference in price and I suspect Ulysses will shorten up quite a bit. Also how is OOSG shorter than Highland Reel? All depends on the ground I suppose. Winter would be a fascinating runner and the only other two I'd have on my mind would be Brametot and Waldgeist, whatever happened to Waldgeist?

uxiant

Order Of St George looks great beating average horses but get him in a battle against Arc horses and he'll bottle it. Wouldn't be going near him at those prices.

tryfix

WickIow Brave wrote: »

If there's any firm in the description then Ulysses is a huge price. How is he only 2 points shorter than Cracksman? I think he'll get a lot closer to Enable this time. No way should there be that much of a difference in price and I suspect Ulysses will shorten up quite a bit. Also how is OOSG shorter than Highland Reel? All depends on the ground I suppose. Winter would be a fascinating runner and the only other two I'd have on my mind would be Brametot and Waldgeist, whatever happened to Waldgeist?

I do like Ulysses's chances, but he's not a certain runner.

I suppose it's the ground for OOSG VS Highland Reel and OOSG is a probable place prospect so they're not going to go mad with the EW odds on him.

Waldgeist's trainer Fabre has said that he's keeping Waldgeist to Group 2 company for the rest of this year. He's pencilled in for a race in France two weeks after the Arc.

Can't be having Brametot myself, his French Derby form is nowhere near good enough for this.

diomed

I wish it was back at Longchamp.
Nothing like an unfair track and luck of the draw to sink a favourite.
But I still think the French might have something to upset the favourite.

Joe_ Public

Amazed to see Cracksman as short as 3/1 in some places. Bit of a hype horse for me. I respect Gosden massively and he rates the horse highly, but haven't yet seen any visual evidence of a potential Arc winner (this or any year), for all he probably should be an Irish Derby winner. Takes far too long to pick up his races and lacks the burst of speed you need to win even an average Arc renewal.

Ulysses fits the bill far better for me, but really it's still all about the favourite. I think Enable would probably win it without the sex allowance, she's that good. Winter is an intriguing candidate for sure, but couldn't have her over Enable, not over 12f anyway.

longshotvalue

diomed wrote: »

I wish it was back at Longchamp.
Nothing like an unfair track and luck of the draw to sink a favourite.
But I still think the French might have something to upset the favourite.

I like that horse Finche that lead for Cracksman's race and came back again in the end to be 3rd. Looked to have more in the locker and it was only his 4th run ever. Trained by the right man as well.

He's 40/1

tryfix

Dual Classic winner Brametot remains on course for a crack at the Arc with Jean-Claude Rouget and owners Al Shaqab optimistic that their colt can put a disasterous comeback run at Deauville well and truly behind him.

Brametot came through his latest gallop at Deauville racecourse in good style on Tuesday morning and will have one more breeze on the turf at the beginning of next week before heading to the €5 million Qatar-sponsored showpiece of the European season a week on Sunday.

Alain de Royer-Dupre was delighted with Zarak, who has not run since landing the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud on his first try over a mile and a half on July 2, after the son of Zarkava galloped on Chantilly's Les Aigles round gallop just before first light on Tuesday morning.

Royer-Dupre said: "He worked really well. He is supple and moved like a horse who is ready. If I had to run him this Sunday there would be no problem. He'll do something similar again next week, perhaps over slightly shorter.

"He has already run well at Chantilly, including when he was second in the Jockey Club, so I have no worries on that score.

"In terms of ground he just doesn't want extremes. My only concern is what he will face in the race because there are several very, very good horses in opposition."

https://www.racingpost.com/news/international/zarak-in-perfect-shape-for-arc-bid-says-delighted-royer-dupre/301386


Fairly glowing but realistic reports on Brametot and Zarak who head the French defence of the Arc.

tryfix

Significant Qipco Champion Stakes support for Cracksman, which resulted in his odds being slashed to 7-2 favourite (from 6) by Coral on Saturday, has resulted in stablemate Enable’s position as Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe favourite hardening.

An announcement about Cracksman’s next race is likely to be made by trainer John Gosden and owner Anthony Oppenheimer this weekend, but Coral anticipated that decision by cutting Enable to 10-11 (from evens) for the Ascot showpiece.

Speaking at Newbury on Saturday, Gosden said: “I’ve got to speak to Mr Oppenheimer, but a decision will be made this weekend.”

https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/enable-odds-on-for-arc-after-cracksman-backed-for-champion-stakes/301928

Cracksman supposedly heading for the Champion Stakes at Newmarket... Good job too because he's likely to be not good enough for either race but he'll really make the market at Ascot for the other horses.

WickIow Brave

Winter declared with RL Moore riding!

jimjamcos

Fairplay to AOB and Coolmore throwing everything they have at it. Regardless of money they put in and strength they have, they're competitiveness deserves all the success it gets.

tryfix

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Winter declared with RL Moore riding!

Yep, details below.

Ryan Moore has again opted for ladies first in choosing Winter ahead of her four remaining Ballydoyle stablemates in Sunday's €5 million Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

Last year's runner up Highland Reel and this year's Derby second Cliffs Of Moher were the two not to go forward when 18 declarations were made for the Chantilly showpiece on Thursday morning.

Moore won the Arc for a second time in his career aboard Found last October and has chosen Winter ahead of Order Of St George on what will be the four-time Group 1-winning daughter of Galileo's first try at beyond a mile and a quarter.

Order Of St George will be ridden by Donnacha O'Brien, while Wayne Lordan, who steered Winter to 1,000 Guineas success at Newmarket in May, will get the leg-up on William Hill St Leger hero Capri.

The Ballydoyle contingent is completed by Idaho, who will be ridden by Seamie Heffernan, and Seventh Heaven, the mount of Pat Smullen

www.racingpost.com/news/arc-countdown/highland-reel-and-cliffs-of-moher-miss-out-as-18-are-declared-for-arc/302483


That's put the cat amongst the pigeons, Enable has some competition.

longshotvalue

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Winter declared with RL Moore riding!

Feck that 10/1 looks exceptional value now. She need the run last time and for me the trip wont be an issue. Cant wait. Funny feeling the 4 will be between

enable/winter/order or/Idaho. Idaho looks great value if you write of him last run he should get close enough to make 50/1 interesting.

RivetingRoger

winter might not like it if its soft
Same for Ulysees

RivetingRoger

once this race is over I dont want to hear another word about flat racing until Punchestown finishes!
So done with this now!

tryfix

aidankkk wrote: »

Feck that 10/1 looks exceptional value now. She need the run last time and for me the trip wont be an issue. Cant wait. Funny feeling the 4 will be between

enable/winter/order or/Idaho. Idaho looks great value if you write of him last run he should get close enough to make 50/1 interesting.

Seventh Heaven on her day is a beast, and the likely very strong pace would suit her ideally. The worry with her is that her performance the last day was so bad that she may be gone.


The way I see it Capri will be up with the pace and he'll be a tough horse to pass which will make it a really tough race stamina and class wise. The thing is, Enable is a savage herself when it comes to breaking other horses and OOSG is a monster if he gets to the front.

All the while the likes of hold up horses like Ulysses and Seventh Heaven will be waiting to pounce late.

A spectacular Arc is on the cards with the German, French and Japanese challenge liable to throw up a horse who's been primed to peak on Arc day.

uxiant

Order of St George needs to put the race to bed early and gets lots of space otherwise he'll just bottle it in a battle. The problem for him is that there's no way this is going to happen in a race of this quality. He has a tendency to hang badly right and just doesn't want to go past horses in a battle as seen in the Gold Cup and in the Irish Leger behind Wicklow Brave. He actually hangs right twice under pressure on both ocassions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVazxpASivo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLEYDx8Gj2U

Joe_ Public

tryfix wrote: »

Seventh Heaven on her day is a beast, and the likely very strong pace would suit her ideally. The worry with her is that her performance the last day was so bad that she may be gone.


The way I see it Capri will be up with the pace and he'll be a tough horse to pass which will make it a really tough race stamina and class wise. The thing is, Enable is a savage herself when it comes to breaking other horses and OOSG is a monster if he gets to the front.

All the while the likes of hold up horses like Ulysses and Seventh Heaven will be waiting to pounce late.

A spectacular Arc is on the cards with the German, French and Japanese challenge liable to throw up a horse who's been primed to peak on Arc day.

I think that's a good summary. The Ballydoyle angle is hard to work out, I find. I presume Highland Reel is a nr on account of the likely soft conditions, but then why bother running Seventh Heaven who obviously wants top of the ground? I'm not sure they can run the race to suit their definite stayers AND the likes of Winter, unless they are that confident her stamina will hold out. It's a fascinating puzzle and not one I can confidently work out. Not that convinced they see Winter as their No.1. Idaho has a good shout for a place perhaps.

The German horse looks interesting. Especially if it's going to be as bottomless as some of the reports are suggesting, though I'd hold out until the weekend to be sure of that.

deeks

It would also appear the APOB is more interested in winning the Arc again than beating Bobby Frankel's record as you'd think it would make more sense to throw both Winter and Seventh Heaven into the Prix de l'Opera which would theoretically of course be the easier option if he was just concerned about racking up Group 1's.

Francie Barrett

If there was ever a favourite to be opposed, then I think this is it. O'Brien running five to potentially disrupt things. A notoriously unfair track. Going that will be on the soft side.
Feel that Brametot might just be worth a second look at 14/1 ew if you can forgive its last run where it couldn't even get out of its own way.

No idea why Order Of St George is even running and Highland Reel isnt.

longshotvalue

deeks wrote: »

It would also appear the APOB is more interested in winning the Arc again than beating Bobby Frankel's record as you'd think it would make more sense to throw both Winter and Seventh Heaven into the Prix de l'Opera which would theoretically of course be the easier option if he was just concerned about racking up Group 1's.

There is no doubt about that . The way things are going with 2yo's hell be having another shot next year. The arc would mean 10 times more that any record

tryfix

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I think that's a good summary. The Ballydoyle angle is hard to work out, I find. I presume Highland Reel is a nr on account of the likely soft conditions, but then why bother running Seventh Heaven who obviously wants top of the ground? I'm not sure they can run the race to suit their definite stayers AND the likes of Winter, unless they are that confident her stamina will hold out. It's a fascinating puzzle and not one I can confidently work out. Not that convinced they see Winter as their No.1. Idaho has a good shout for a place perhaps.

The German horse looks interesting. Especially if it's going to be as bottomless as some of the reports are suggesting, though I'd hold out until the weekend to be sure of that.

I wouldn't be worrying about the ground for Seventh Heaven, she ran a great race on the Soft in Meydan when running on very pleasingly for second behind Jack Hobbs. That day she looked like a horse that'd be primed for the Arc, but with her injury and dire return it's impossible to know whether she's ready to do herself justice. If she was then remember that she beat last year's Arc winner Found in the Yorkshire Oaks. A small wager at big odds on her would be the only way I'd back her.

With 19 runners declared and all the hard luck stories you get in a big field, it's a race where taking on the favourite now seems like a sensible idea, especially given the prices of everything else bar Enable.


The Coolmore juggernaut in this Arc is mightily impressive.

diomed

RivetingRoger wrote: »

once this race is over I dont want to hear another word about flat racing until Punchestown finishes!
So done with this now!

Trolling
A troll is someone who posts controversial, inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages with the primary intent of provoking other users into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.

Earendil

diomed wrote: »

Trolling
A troll is someone who posts controversial, inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages with the primary intent of provoking other users into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.

Or else he finds flat racing boring diomed.

Edit:
Apologies, just noticed it's in the Arc thread, not one of the general discussions. Yep, Trolling.

Peintre Celebre

Francie Barrett wrote: »

If there was ever a favourite to be opposed, then I think this is it. O'Brien running five to potentially disrupt things. A notoriously unfair track. Going that will be on the soft side.
Feel that Brametot might just be worth a second look at 14/1 ew if you can forgive its last run where it couldn't even get out of its own way.

No idea why Order Of St George is even running and Highland Reel isnt.

You can't see why OOSG is running?

Highland Reel has clearly shown he hates soft ground. Pretty clear really

Peintre Celebre

tryfix wrote: »

I wouldn't be worrying about the ground for Seventh Heaven, she ran a great race on the Soft in Meydan when running on very pleasingly for second behind Jack Hobbs. That day she looked like a horse that'd be primed for the Arc, but with her injury and dire return it's impossible to know whether she's ready to do herself justice. If she was then remember that she beat last year's Arc winner Found in the Yorkshire Oaks. A small wager at big odds on her would be the only way I'd back her.

With 19 runners declared and all the hard luck stories you get in a big field, it's a race where taking on the favourite now seems like a sensible idea, especially given the prices of everything else bar Enable.


The Coolmore juggernaut in this Arc is mightily impressive.

Seventh Heaven ran so badly last time it's extremely hard to back her. I've backed George just before he won the Leger wouldn't swap him now even with Winter in

tryfix

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Seventh Heaven ran so badly last time it's extremely hard to back her. I've backed George just before he won the Leger wouldn't swap him now even with Winter in

I'm waiting until the ground conditions become more certain before I've a bet.

The Arc hasn't been an easy race to pick the winner in and the French destroying their own Derby has really messed up form lines.

One thing about O'Brien and the Arc is that he's sent out plenty of well fancied classy 3yos and they're always disappointing in it. The long 3yo season with the peak for the classics usually has his 3yos burnt out by Arc time. ( Capri has had a better preparation than Winter for this)

OOSG fits the O'Brien Arc winner template, a mature classy horse that's a little underestimated. You'd have to worry about the trip being too short with him, but his place prospects are outstanding and it's instructive that Donnacha got the ride on him.

WickIow Brave

Draw is out
Ulysses in 1, Enable in 2, Brametot in 4
Idaho 7, Winter 8, OOSG 9
Capri in 15, Seventh Heaven in 17.

OOSG was drawn very wide last year iirc.
Think APOB will be happy enough.

Nulty

Enable wins. Simple.

piplip87

Winter for me. Will have a small each way on Idhao. Hydrangea to win too.

RivetingRoger

Racing Post‏Verified account @RacingPost 20m20 minutes ago

The going at Chantilly has improved to good to soft (from soft) and the forecast for Sunday is looking much better

That 9/1 i got on winter looks better now...!

uxiant

If we get something near French good ground on Sunday, it brings the Japanese horse into play.

hobie21

Thoughts on Brametot.
I'm heading over for the races and am pretty clueless.... any tips for the other Sunday races at Chantilly appreciated.

Gringo180

Basically down to backing each way for some value. Cant see how Enable is beat. Shes a freak. Seventh Heavens last run was disgusting couldnt back her with any confidence but surely AOB wouldnt run her if she wasnt right.

Gringo180

Be a travesty to racing if the likes of Capri can win an Arc.

byronbay2

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Draw is out
Ulysses in 1, Enable in 2, Brametot in 4
Idaho 7, Winter 8, OOSG 9
Capri in 15, Seventh Heaven in 17.

OOSG was drawn very wide last year iirc.
Think APOB will be happy enough.

Gosden can't complain about the draw this year!

diomed

I assume a low draw is on the right facing forward i.e. on the inside rail.
But the Arc field at Chantilly goes slightly left for a few hundred metres from the stalls. That means a high draw is favoured or is not at much of a disadvantage.
The first three in 2016 were drawn 12, 11, 16

My bet is €100 at 34s Zarak.
Enable is good but I like big odds.

Bateman

Think I will back OOSG and Capri both each way, both still appear to me to be overrated.

Slattsy

Enable is a good thing. Unless she suffers traffic problems, can't see anything to beat her.

Most of O'Briens and Ulyssys want better ground. Winter on better ground against the fav would be interesting. The French yolks look ordinary.

No big interest, looks a poor renewal, Winter and Enable aside, so something each like Idaho, who wasn't far off Ulyssys in the KG.

Itziger

Looks like there will be some rain between now and the off. I'd say it will be soft at least.

Peintre Celebre

Gringo180 wrote: »

Be a travesty to racing if the likes of Capri can win an Arc.

You're a hard man to please Gringo. We've been very fortunate the last few years to see some really exceptional Arc winners like STS, Treve, Zarkava and Danedream. Capri has a higher rating than Found did coming in and he's won Classics on his last two starts and is improving. Travesty would be something like Idaho winning his first Group 1 here for all he should go well at a big price

diomed

These have not won a Group 1 and won over 12f
Brametot; Cloth Of Stars; Doha Dream; Idaho; One Foot In Heaven; Order Of St George; Plumatic; Satono Noblesse; Winter

These have won a Group 1 and won over 12f (a few have won a Gr1 over 12f)
Capri; Dschingis Secret; Enable; Iquitos; Satono Diamond; Seventh Heaven; Silverwave; Ulysses; Zarak.

Not many win the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe who have not already won a Group 1 (Solemia a recent exception).

won a Group 1 and won over 12f
Capri: probably the 3yo colt with the best season, but the colts are not good this year.
Dschingis Secret: trainer is talking about 2m and 2m4f races next year and the need for soft ground.
Enable: been very impressive at 12f with four Group 1 wins in a row at 12f by a total margin of 20 lengths.
The only possible problems are:
she has never raced in a field bigger than 10 in her seven races
she has a bad draw imo in stall 2 (the field goes left at the start)
she has had 6 races this year.
Problems in running or a slow pace are the only problems I see.
Iquitos: only one of his 13 races was outside Germany, 7th in the 2016 Gr 1 Japan Cup on firm btn 4l run petering out close home.
By a sire very closely related to Galileo.
Satano Diamond: he has had three races in 2017, and imo his jockey took it easy in the Prix Foy when beaten.
Are they trying to keep this horse fresh for the Arc French style?
His French jockey has ridden in all his eight career starts in Japan.
Never started a race higher than 3/1, but now 60s on Betfair.
Seventh Heaven: Good winner of 2016 Irish Oaks, then beat Found next race in the Yorkshire Oaks.
9th of 9 last run 3 weeks ago "always behind, last at halfway, pushed along and no impression from over 2f out, weakened and eased inside final furlong".
Had been off track since May.
Silverwave: 13th in the 2016 Arc, and been beaten by many in this race elsewhere.
Ulysses: has had a good 2017 but well beaten by Enable in the King George VI & QE II.
Zarak: obviously stamina is his game. His one race as a 2yo was an 8f win on heavy.
Since then ten races at 8f/10f but in his last race, the 12f Grand Prix de Saint Cloud (Group 1) he trailed the field and then passed them close home.
The opposition may not have been the best, but the pace was fast, the time under standard, and much the best time on the card.

1 Enable
2 Zarak
3 Iquitos
4 Seventh Heaven

My bets: Zarak 100 at 34s; Iquitos 30 at 332

tryfix

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

You're a hard man to please Gringo. We've been very fortunate the last few years to see some really exceptional Arc winners like STS, Treve, Zarkava and Danedream. Capri has a higher rating than Found did coming in and he's won Classics on his last two starts and is improving. Travesty would be something like Idaho winning his first Group 1 here for all he should go well at a big price

Capri's form isn't good enough, but he looks like a horse who's still got plenty in the locker

I went through the field last night. The French and German challenge is poor on form grounds, any of them would have to impove very significantly to win here.

Dshingis Secret is devalued by the presence of moderate enough horses near him in his impressive wins.

Cloth Of Stars and Zarak are flattered by having Gp1 wins to their names, the form around those horses is more Gp 2 than Gp1.

Brametot is badly devalued by the beaten horses in his French Derby win. He has course form and a devestating turn of foot but he'd need to improve half a stone on his best form.

Capri is well ahead of many in the field but he's well behind Order Of St George on a form line through Rekindling beaten 2l in the Leger and 4 3/4l by OOSG in his Irish Leger trial, also on a line through Crystal Ocean ( Mount Moriah ) OOSG is vastly superior to the 3yo colts.

Enable seemingly has it all especially stamina, she has the best form but she's a bit flattered by her King George win against horses that weren't at their best on the going.

The form of her Yorkshire Oaks win makes her coronation a bit premature.

She beat Coronet by 5L there, Coronet went on to be beaten 3 1/4L in the St Leger which makes Enable just 1 3/4L superior to Capri who has been dismissed as being not good enough. On that form line Capri will be on Enable's tail.

Back in third on Yorkshire Oaks day was Queens Trust beaten 5 3/4L and a bit overstretched there stamina wise. Queen's Trust has form with Ulysses, she was only 3/4L behind Ulysses at Ascot over 10f. That basically knocks the chances of Ulysses and Idaho beating Enable, although it would be no huge surprise if Stoute produced some kind of magic out of Ulysses on the day.

Queens Trust was also beaten 4L by Winter over 10f which puts Winter on Enables tail, especially since Queens Trust is better at 10f than 12f.

The big question with Winter is will she stay. She stayed well over 10f, she also has a very surprising DI of 0.60 which seems plain wrong as it implies that she's as stoutly bred as Enable but she's out of a 6f Wokingham winning dam.


I had a look back through Winter's pedigree on the dam side, it turns out that she has the sire Favourite Trick ( who has a sires stamina index of 12f ) on her dam's side so maybe the DI isn't crazy after all.


With Enable odds on it's worth taking her on, John Gosden has been here before with super fillies like Taghrooda, Great Heavens, The Fugue, Dar Re Mi etc and they've failed so Enable has history to overcome.

I've reduced the rest of the field to Order Of St George and Winter and backed both as the best alternatives to Enable ( also had a small bet on Seventh Heaven ( who also beat Queen's Trust by 4L in her Yorkshire Oaks win) just in case she's actually fit to do herself justice ).

Harry Angstrom

Taking a chance with the German horse Dschingis Secret at 16's. Will like the ground, and if Enable doesn't run her race he should be thereabouts at the finish.

uxiant

Iquitos looks an interesting one. Has been running well in Germany in small fields but looks the type suited to a strong gallop and good test over 12f so I can see him improving here. The German's have had some decent staying types over the years like Danedream, Sea The Moon and Protectionist so he may be coming from an underrated form line. Looks good value to place at least with Bet365 going 150/1 with 4 places.

WickIow Brave

Buzzing for the Arc. Going with Order of Saint George e/w (9/1) and Ulysses e/w (11/1). Can't believe the price of Ulysses. Winter and OOSG are only shorter because they haven't met Enable yet.

tryfix

Different class

tryfix

Given his form behind Enable and Ulysses, Idaho was wasted as pacemaker, he could well have run on into a place if he'd been held up.

Massimo Tara

What a pleasure to watch!

BorneTobyWilde

Deserves a break now. Great horse