Extremely low GFMV on Leaf PCP

DriveSkill

Anyone know if the calculation of GFMV on the Leaf PCP is deliberately being impacted by the new model coming or just the typical of the massive depreciation of EVs!

The figures dont make for encouraging reading!...

Current Leaf SVE spec'ed up to €32,600

GFMV after 36 months : €7820 !!!!!

Obviously I'm not really interesting in buying a brand new one now but looking at whether the new model might be worth looking at and so looking at the finance options (assuming it would be around the same starting price).

By comparison I put in a new Qashqai of about the same initial price and it has a GFMV of over 12K so its not like Nissan are low-balling all of the PCP deals.

I'm guessing the sales pitch would be that you would have a larger equity when you come to trade in but to me it screams that Nissan have no confidence in the values holding up. I'm hoping that maybe this is being driven by the fact the new model is just around the corner and so in 3 years time the current leaf will have taken a massive hit but if the expected depreciation is 75% over 3 years its doesnt really encourage anyone to buy a new EV!

grogi

DriveSkill wrote: »

Anyone know if the calculation of GFMV on the Leaf PCP is deliberately being impacted by the new model coming or just the typical of the massive depreciation of EVs!

The figures dont make for encouraging reading!...

Current Leaf SVE spec'ed up to €32,600

GFMV after 36 months : €7820 !!!!!

Obviously I'm not really interesting in buying a brand new one now but looking at whether the new model might be worth looking at and so looking at the finance options (assuming it would be around the same starting price).

By comparison I put in a new Qashqai of about the same initial price and it has a GFMV of over 12K so its not like Nissan are low-balling all of the PCP deals.

I'm guessing the sales pitch would be that you would have a larger equity when you come to trade in but to me it screams that Nissan have no confidence in the values holding up. I'm hoping that maybe this is being driven by the fact the new model is just around the corner and so in 3 years time the current leaf will have taken a massive hit but if the expected depreciation is 75% over 3 years its doesnt really encourage anyone to buy a new EV!

And how much are 2014 leafs right now?

DriveSkill

grogi wrote: »

And how much are 2014 leafs right now?

Well not a huge amount of them but advertised for 12-14K approx

unkel

DriveSkill wrote: »

Current Leaf SVE spec'ed up to €32,600

LOL! You can buy a Current Leaf SVE for €19k today!

And any optional extras depreciate by 100% within the first year, so second hand values after 3 years reflect that.

grogi

DriveSkill wrote: »

Well not a huge amount of them but advertised for 12-14K approx

So assume it is worth 12k, that would leave you with around 4k equity. Sounds about right?

DriveSkill

unkel wrote: »

LOL! You can buy a Current Leaf SVE for €19k today!

And any optional extras depreciate by 100% within the first year, so second hand values after 3 years reflect that.

So we are not comparing like with like - I dont believe you can get a new SVE for 19K (unless I'm missing something but I thought the prices on the Nissan site included the Govt grant). The base 30kW + 6.6 KW + Metallic is showing as over 31K.

I agree you could bring a nearly new one in from the UK for a hell of a lot less but that was not my question and is irrelevant here.

The question was whether the PCP GMFV was always this low for a Leaf and therefore one would expect it to be similar when financing a new model one or if this is artificially low now because there is a new model coming so the older one would as expected take a fairly significant hit.

grogi

DriveSkill wrote: »

The question was whether the PCP GMFV was always this low for a Leaf and therefore one would expect it to be similar when financing a new model one or if this is artificially low now because there is a new model coming so the older one would as expected take a fairly significant hit.

It is not artificially low now - it is simply realistic. EV value falls like a stone in water, because there always is something MUCH better just around the corner.

Leaf was shadowed by Ioniq, there is Leaf II which will be much better and Tesla Model 3 that is going to be even more awesome...

Gumbo

DriveSkill wrote: »

So we are not comparing like with like - I dont believe you can get a new SVE for 19K (unless I'm missing something but I thought the prices on the Nissan site included the Govt grant). The base 30kW + 6.6 KW + Metallic is showing as over 31K.

I agree you could bring a nearly new one in from the UK for a hell of a lot less but that was not my question and is irrelevant here.

The question was whether the PCP GMFV was always this low for a Leaf and therefore one would expect it to be similar when financing a new model one or if this is artificially low now because there is a new model coming so the older one would as expected take a fairly significant hit.

Nissan Naas had a large advertisement in a major newspaper last week for brand new 24kw cars for €19,995. Brand new SVE spec.

DriveSkill

grogi wrote: »

It is artificially low now - it is simply realistic. EV value falls like a stone in water, because there always is something MUCH better just around the corner.

Leaf was shadowed by Ioniq, there is Leaf II which will be much better and Tesla Model 3 that is going to be even more awesome...

So I dont disagree but I think it really highlights the issue with getting them into mass market. Certainly if I had to take a 75% depreciation hit in 3 years then its a non-runner for me. It essentially playing in the 'family car' segment and that simply wont support that level of depreciation in my view irrespective of whether they get the sale price in line with similar size ICE options.

There is a difference in someone who buys a high end luxury car (e.g. S-Class) and accepts that they will lose 30-40K over maybe 2-3 years - in all likelyhood they can afford it but the majority of people buying a 30K car cant afford to shell out another 20K in 3 years

grogi

kceire wrote: »

Nissan Naas had a large advertisement in a major newspaper last week for brand new 24kw cars for 19k.

But not SVE, but rather XE. Without metalic and delivery charges if I know life...

Gumbo

grogi wrote: »

But not SVE, but rather XE. Without metalic and delivery charges if I know life...

According to the advert, it was SVE "Top Spec".

DriveSkill

kceire wrote: »

Nissan Naas had a large advertisement in a major newspaper last week for brand new 24kw cars for €19,995. Brand new SVE spec.

That is interesting...maybe there are significant discounts being offered to shift the current stock, I was just going by the finance calculator on the Nissan site. The list price account to Nissan.ie for the 24kW SVE model with no other options added is 26,390. Also to Unkel's point about options being zero value its true as the GFMV is still the same as the one which had the 32KW and 6.6 charger etc

Gumbo

DriveSkill wrote: »

That is interesting...maybe there are significant discounts being offered to shift the current stock, I was just going by the finance calculator on the Nissan site. The list price account to Nissan.ie for the 24kW SVE model with no other options added is 26,390. Also to Unkel's point about options being zero value its true as the GFMV is still the same as the one which had the 32KW and 6.6 charger etc

Once you go SVE, there's not many options to add.
Parking sensors maybe and few gimmicky add ons, but nothing of true value. Led lights, heated seats etc are already standard.

DriveSkill

kceire wrote: »

According to the advert, it was SVE "Top Spec".

That ad is technically correct I think in that their 'was' price of 32K I bet is not including the 5K Govt grant

cros13

For me Leaf depreciation has been less than depreciation on toyota's over the same period.

Bought the first Leaf ex-demo 141 reg 24kWh SVE in May/June 2014 for just under €24k and traded it at 65,000km + €4.5k cash for a 161 30kWh SV + cold pack in Jan '16.

The cheapest 161 30kWh SV on carzone is up for €21k (from a dealer though). I'd reckon I'd get at least €18-19k for mine.

So at least from my perspective... depreciation on the Leaf hasn't been an issue. And between the two cars ~€10k in fuel and maintenance saved.

The i3.... well it's BMW....

Gumbo

DriveSkill wrote: »

That ad is technically correct I think in that their 'was' price of 32K I bet is not including the 5K Govt grant

Yep that's normal. But it's a brand new leaf for 19k.

DriveSkill

kceire wrote: »

Once you go SVE, there's not many options to add.
Parking sensors maybe and few gimmicky add ons, but nothing of true value. Led lights, heated seats etc are already standard.

the 32 KW and 6.6 + Metallic were the main 'options'

I had also add parking sensors (VERY EXPENSIVE!!) but wife prefers them to the camera!

Gumbo

DriveSkill wrote: »

the 32 KW and 6.6 + Metallic were the main 'options'

I had also add parking sensors (VERY EXPENSIVE!!) but wife prefers them to the camera!

You should be able to negotiate those aggressively now with the new Leaf been launched on 6th September.

DriveSkill

kceire wrote: »

You should be able to negotiate those aggressively now with the new Leaf been launched on 6th September.

My thought process initially was wait and see what the new one is like and look at PCP finance but fallback was head to UK and pick up a Tekna 30KW spec maybe 171 for around 15-17K STG which given the current exchange and including travel costs would clear under 20K Euro.

Now if I could get a new - albeit older model - here for 20K or close then that is certainly an option, would have to be a 30KW though. I honestly didnt realise they were discounting so heavily at the moment.

unkel

grogi wrote: »

But not SVE, but rather XE. Without metalic and delivery charges if I know life...

Nope. You could have got a base model with metallic paint and delivery charges and the 6.6kW fast charging for €19k on the road this time last year. That's what I got with barely any negotiation. I didn't go through with it.

I'd be confident you can get the top spec SVE with fast charging on the road for no more than €18k as soon as the new model is actually available and they still have old model stock. Possibly even thousands below that.

Anyone remember the massive discounts on the last of the petrol Subarus back in 2008? The 50% discounts on the last of the Rover 75 after Rover had gone bankrupt? Happy days for the buyers

Casati

unkel wrote: »

Nope. You could have got a base model with metallic paint and delivery charges and the 6.6kW fast charging for €19k on the road this time last year. That's what I got with barely any negotiation. I didn't go through with it.

I'd be confident you can get the top spec SVE with fast charging on the road for no more than €18k as soon as the new model is actually available and they still have old model stock. Possibly even thousands below that.

Anyone remember the massive discounts on the last of the petrol Subarus back in 2008? The 50% discounts on the last of the Rover 75 after Rover had gone bankrupt? Happy days for the buyers

Not very reassuring for existing owners though!

I see Nissan in Clonee have a 30 SV 171 demo asking 21k, I'd imagine it wouldn't be hard to get it below 20k

goz83

Casati wrote: »

Not very reassuring for existing owners though!

I see Nissan in Clonee have a 30 SV 171 demo asking 21k, I'd imagine it wouldn't be hard to get it below 20k

If you change your car every 2-3 years it's a kick in the gonads alright. Me....I couldn't give a fiddlers. In fact, I prefer cut throat depreciation, because as a second hand buyer, I benefit.

RoboRat

The low GMFV is down to the advancements that are being made and uncertainty about electric cars, especially in Ireland. If the electric market shows low growth and something new comes on the market, then the buy back for the dealer will supersede the actual market value of the car. They also need to factor in that they want a bit of wiggle room in regards to the actual value they offer on the buyback after 3 years otherwise they may lose the customers instead of rotating them to a newer model.

The entire PCP market in Ireland is a bit of a mess, many marques are offering low rates but the buyback will not equate to the deposit for the new car in 3 years time so it will involve a top up to the deposit or the dealer sucking it up and taking a hit. Some marques are offering lower GMFV but that's to cover the future market or upcoming changes that may affect the future market.

I know the UK are phasing out petrol/ diesel cars but realistically we don't have the infrastructure in Ireland in place as we are still quite behind in regards to power generation. If everyone was to buy electric cars in Ireland we would just end up burning more peat and therefore negate the emissions saved from cars... in fact, I reckon most new cars are probably more efficient with their use of fuel than where we are getting our electricity from.

Padraig Mor

I got a SV Cold Pack new in 2015 (152) and the GMFV on the contract is ~€10k. AFAIK, about 6 months later they slashed the GMFVs on the Leaf down to €7 - 8k.

KCross

Casati wrote: »

Not very reassuring for existing owners though!

I see Nissan in Clonee have a 30 SV 171 demo asking 21k, I'd imagine it wouldn't be hard to get it below 20k

It all depends on how many old stock they have/are trying to shift. Production appears to have already stopped based on the UK forum where people have had orders cancelled by Nissan even after deposits were paid.

So, if they have a few hundred to shift it won't make that much difference to depreciation. Just those people will get very good deals. Anyone still looking for a 3,4,5 year old Leaf will still have the same very small(relatively speaking) number of cars to choose from.

Now, if they have thousands of them to shift.... thats a different matter entirely. That will kill existing owners from a depreciation perspective.

However, I think thats unlikely. Nissan will have been preparing for this for a long time and will have good offers on the old Leaf for a very short time.... just my guess. They will simply want to have all the old stock gone before the new one is available.

Leaf II will cause depreciation on the old model in the same way as it happens on every make/model for decades passed so there is nothing new from that perspective.

DriveSkill

Padraig Mor wrote: »

I got a SV Cold Pack new in 2015 (152) and the GMFV on the contract is ~€10k. AFAIK, about 6 months later they slashed the GMFVs on the Leaf down to €7 - 8k.

So this is sort of the info I was expecting to see and maybe implies that the new model PCP will have a higher GMFV than present.

On their current plan the PCP deal is a non-runner if you pay anything close to the RRP. Of course if you can get one at 20K and the GMFV is around 8K after 3 years then you are back in the realms of possibility again :-)

BoatMad

well pity me, a 161 30 kwh Leaf ( march 20-16 ) with currently 71,000km !!, GMFV of 10K , but hey i know what I'm getting into

DriveSkill

DriveSkill wrote: »

Anyone know if the calculation of GFMV on the Leaf PCP is deliberately being impacted by the new model coming or just the typical of the massive depreciation of EVs!

What happened this year is that the GFMV went from 12,500 to about 5,000 and this happened because Nissan is making absolutely sure they will not loose this time around.

So that means that you pay a lot more PM than what I would have but the interest is a good bit cheaper now than it were in 2015 but you still pay a lot more PM kind of defeating the purpose of PCP but on the + side it pretty much guarantees you will have a deposit going forward because I can not see any leaf worth 5K after 3 years.

Anyway, it's still a cheap loan.

DriveSkill

Deleted User wrote: »

What happened this year is that the GFMV went from 12,500 to about 5,000 and this happened because Nissan is making absolutely sure they will not loose this time around.

So that means that you pay a lot more PM than what I would have but the interest is a good bit cheaper now than it were in 2015 but you still pay a lot more PM kind of defeating the purpose of PCP but on the + side it pretty much guarantees you will have a deposit going forward because I can not see any leaf worth 5K after 3 years.

Anyway, it's still a cheap loan.

So I think it has 2 impacts :

a) it puts most of the risk on the buyer so if the values do totally collapse then Nissan still have their money and the buyer takes the hit. (BTW that is fair enough as long as you go in with eyes open)

but more importantly :

b) because of the low GFMV the amount being repaid is significantly more than a similarly priced ICE and so over the 3 years the repayments are relatively high - in my example the PCP was coming around 450 per month which I think will put people off. I think when I tried for the Qashqai figures it was around 280 so your average Joe would look and say I could have similar priced ICE car for 280 pm or EV for 450 pm....EV not going to win that one!

Caveat of course this is all based on RRP and as people have shown there are big discounts but those discounts wont be available on the new model so hope if the GMFV comes up a bit!

PCP on a Leaf is still a low enough interest Loan but regular finance might make it as appealing and 5 K balloon at the end isn't really going to break the bank, but you'll most likely have a good bit more than the GFMV at the end, in fact I'd put money on it it's just that Nissan are protecting themselves having that nice deposit/equity at the end though is costing you.

My repayments on Finance over 3 years would have been around 750 Euro's PM and on PCP it's 456 PM for 30,000 Kms per year despite the higher interest at the time, it was a no brainer, especially considering I had no intention to keep the car after the 3 years, now it looks like the car will be worth less than the 12,500 GFMV so I made a good choice, yes I won't have a deposit but If I had paid on finance I'd have paid anyway to own the car to have value to sell on which is worthless to me anyway if that makes sense ? in other words, on finance I'm paying for that deposit by the much larger monthly payments and only having a deposit because I own the car in full so any value in it is mine.

So by paying on finance or PCP, depreciation is depreciation no matter how you cut it or dress it up, PCP can work out good if the balance is right between deposit , monthly payments and GFMV and you do not intend to own the car at the end.

Finance is good if you want to own the car at the end but it does not protect you from depreciation and at the end you still have to watch the dealer take a good chunk of that equity you've got left in the car or sell it privately.

At the end of the day I went in with my eyes wide open as can be searched in my posts before I got the Leaf at worst I have no deposit for the next car that isn't coming out of my own pocket but at the end of the day I'm still after this time very much willing to pay more to drive EV and I'm sure as hell never going back to ICE.

unkel

Out of interest, what will you have paid in total by the time your PCP comes to an end? And what does the GFMV mean to you in a few likely (worst / best) scenarios? In worst case scenario you just hand the car back and you get no money for it?