Longshots at Galway & Goodwood

longshotvalue

Galway 5:20

I’m going to go with the rather obvious Dirty EW bet here with Father Mattie. He is an experienced hurdler with some decent 4yo novice form and I think he will be better suited to his test than the other candidate From Eden. 40/1 is worth a small ew bet.


1 Point EW 40/1 Generally

longshotvalue

Galway 5:55


This is a poor race and I’m going for a relatively inconsistent horse that has improved on the flat since his last hurdles race, The Last Marju . His flat win in May was impressive enough for a poor grade and his maiden hurdle win last year was a decent standard for this type of race. If he is on a going day today 33/1 looks a bit of value here.


1 Point EW 33/1 5 places paddy/lads/coral

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Galway 5:55


This is a poor race and I’m going for a relatively inconsistent horse that has improved on the flat since his last hurdles race, The Last Marju . His flat win in May was impressive enough for a poor grade and his maiden hurdle win last year was a decent standard for this type of race. If he is on a going day today 33/1 looks a bit of value here.


1 Point EW 33/1 5 places paddy/lads/coral

Got our Place with a nice run. Should stop now for the week to lock up profit.

longshotvalue

Galway 7:40

Digeanta made the type of first run after a break I like last time out, when travelling well and fading near the finish. If he can improve for that run which seems very likely he looks a huge price for a proven big handicap stayer with a good jockey up in an amateur race.



1 Point win 25/1 365/sporting/paddy 42 on betfair

longshotvalue

Goodwood 3:00

This is going to be my easiest pick of the week. This race will be fought out by the Group 1 performers and there is only 3 in this field Limato/ Librisa Breeze and Suedois. Suedois is one of the most consistent sprinters of the last few years and has been improving this year to a very good run at Royal Ascot where he probably went off too fast. He has been placed in the only Group 1 over this trip last year behind Limato, who doesn’t look as good this year. He is drawn well in 6 and I just think his price of 33/1 with 4 places is just silly. I looked at the horse first scrolled up expecting about 12/1 and nearly fell of my chair. All this of course is tempered with its Goodwood and anything can happen but that price has to be backed to the max


3 Points EW 33/1 4 places Paddy/Betfair 28/1 4 places sky/tote

longshotvalue

Galway Plate

Road to Riches had a few issues last year but that has resulted in him coming here on a good mark. HE has a decent record fresh and has won this race before. He is the only Grade 1 horse in this field and doesn’t need to be near his best to win here. I can’t see any real superstar novices that could improve hugely and 16/1 might just look massive by Wednesday Afternoon. He looks the most likely winner to me .


2 Points win 16/1 generally

longshotvalue

Goodwood 3:35

I don’t think there is anything between the whole field here behind Big Orange and High Jinx’s comeback run actually puts him right in the firing line here. I can forgive him his second run back maybe as a bounce. He was a top class Group 1 Stayer a few years ago and that comeback run really gave the impression he wasn’t finished yet. He isn’t far behind any of these apart from the fav and 66/1 is just too big.


1 Point EW 66/1 vc/paddy/betfair

longshotvalue

Galway 7:40


I’ve been hoping Stipulate gets into this race and now that there is a non-runner he looks to be in. He has also got lucky with a decent draw as the non-runner was in 5. He was 4th in this last year and also ran well when unlucky later on that week, both of 11lbs higher. He didn’t take to hurdling and has been quiet this year but my guess is today will have been a big target for him.20/1 looks great value.


1 Point EW 20/1 Generally ¼ Place 20/1 5 places sky

Stewie Griffin

Hi Aidan,
I see Arbre De Vie is in the Plate. Thoughts? I remember you picked him before a few times and he was a bit unlucky in running.

longshotvalue

Stewie Griffin wrote: »

Hi Aidan,
I see Arbre De Vie is in the Plate. Thoughts? I remember you picked him before a few times and he was a bit unlucky in running.

He's too short in my view at 12/1 . Very decent chance all the same.

Mgoraf

Sweet jesus. We've just see next year's guineas winner

madmoose

aidankkk wrote: »

Goodwood 3:00

This is going to be my easiest pick of the week. This race will be fought out by the Group 1 performers and there is only 3 in this field Limato/ Librisa Breeze and Suedois. Suedois is one of the most consistent sprinters of the last few years and has been improving this year to a very good run at Royal Ascot where he probably went off too fast. He has been placed in the only Group 1 over this trip last year behind Limato, who doesn’t look as good this year. He is drawn well in 6 and I just think his price of 33/1 with 4 places is just silly. I looked at the horse first scrolled up expecting about 12/1 and nearly fell of my chair. All this of course is tempered with its Goodwood and anything can happen but that price has to be backed to the max


3 Points EW 33/1 4 places Paddy/Betfair 28/1 4 places sky/tote

Ran a cracker 3rd well done

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Goodwood 3:00

This is going to be my easiest pick of the week. This race will be fought out by the Group 1 performers and there is only 3 in this field Limato/ Librisa Breeze and Suedois. Suedois is one of the most consistent sprinters of the last few years and has been improving this year to a very good run at Royal Ascot where he probably went off too fast. He has been placed in the only Group 1 over this trip last year behind Limato, who doesn’t look as good this year. He is drawn well in 6 and I just think his price of 33/1 with 4 places is just silly. I looked at the horse first scrolled up expecting about 12/1 and nearly fell of my chair. All this of course is tempered with its Goodwood and anything can happen but that price has to be backed to the max


3 Points EW 33/1 4 places Paddy/Betfair 28/1 4 places sky/tote

That was the most confident bet ive put up in years. Never in doubt gave us hope of a win as well.. Ill be gone for a while ive to go to a few paddy power shops ;-)

longshotvalue

Goodwood 4:45

Green Door is a high class sprinter on his day. The slightly softer ground will be in his favour. He is drawn well enough and ran a good race on a return from a long gap where he just faded at the finish which is to be expected. IF he improved for that he is no 20/1 shot here


1 Point win 20/1 Generally

diomed

50/1 and 100/1 winners at Goodwood today, and two races to come.

Danick

aidankkk wrote: »

Goodwood 4:45

Green Door is a high class sprinter on his day. The slightly softer ground will be in his favour. He is drawn well enough and ran a good race on a return from a long gap where he just faded at the finish which is to be expected. IF he improved for that he is no 20/1 shot here


1 Point win 20/1 Generally

Came third - you are on fire! Thanks for that!

Ultimate Seduction

Seems I missed out on some free money today. Good stuff Aiden.

longshotvalue

Ill be doing the opposite of a rain dance tomorrow , because if it doesn't rain and the ground is decent tomorrow that 28/1 that paddy and betfair have about Lancaster is just madness. Goodwood is a front runners track and he has been improving every race.

Just cant back it now because he probably wont have a chance on soft.

Ill be back tomorrow at about 10 after seeing what the ground is like.

longshotvalue

Goodwood 1:50

Guard of Honour is a strong stayer with some form over this trip. His run at Ascot is better than it looks at first glance as it was a conditions race against mainly 100 rated horses and he did about as well as could be expected of level weights. This is a much weaker race and he looks sure to be staying on at the finish. 20/1 is value


1 Point EW 20/1 ¼ Place generally

Galway 4:25


Buster Dan Dan could well run a big race here. He has been poor enough on the face of it in his 2 runs this year but this is a drop in class and Galway is certainly a front runners track. He is well capable of this mark and has won of higher before. There isn’t the quality of horses in this to be able to haul him back if he gets into a rhythm and at 33/1 he is certainly overpriced. He has run well in this before.


2 Points EW 33/1 5 places Betfair/Paddy/Sky

Galway 7:20

Theophilus has caught the eye a few times lately over trips that are short of his best, arrives here on a career low mark and he has performed with credit in much better races than this on the big day, including 2 very good runs in the November Handicap of far higher marks. I’d have to think this race would be a nice plan for him and it’s hard to see him out of the 5 here. 25/1 is a fair bit bigger than I expected.


2 Points EW 25/1 5 places paddy/betfair/sky

tryfix

aidankkk wrote: »

Ill be doing the opposite of a rain dance tomorrow , because if it doesn't rain and the ground is decent tomorrow that 28/1 that paddy and betfair have about Lancaster is just madness. Goodwood is a front runners track and he has been improving every race.

Just cant back it now because he probably wont have a chance on soft.

Ill be back tomorrow at about 10 after seeing what the ground is like.

Ribchester ( who was my banker for Ascot) is vulnerable based on his Ascot form, they were raving about his win there but beating Deauville 1/2L in a Mile race is pretty poor form for a horse whose supposedly an OR 125 horse.

I think Churchill will wallop Ribchester tomorrow ( although I'm a bit worried that Ribchester will be much better than he was at Ascot with give in the ground here), even if Churchill is gone then Lancaster Bomber would be an able deputy for the 3yo form if the ground isn't too soft.

longshotvalue

tryfix wrote: »

Ribchester ( who was my banker for Ascot) is vulnerable based on his Ascot form, they were raving about his win there but beating Deauville 1/2L in a Mile race is pretty poor form for a horse whose supposedly an OR 125 horse.

I think Churchill will wallop Ribchester tomorrow ( although I'm a bit worried that Ribchester will be much better than he was at Ascot with give in the ground here), even if Churchill is gone then Lancaster Bomber would be an able deputy for the 3yo form if the ground isn't too soft.

This race could really suit him. Front runners do well, he beat Churchill last time out and there is no Barney Roy in this. Lets hope it doesn't rain too much tomorrow. If he gets an easy enough lead (he can ignore toscanini) he may be difficult to pass running downhill here.

longshotvalue

Goodwood 3:35

I’ve been waiting for news of rain this morning and the prognosis is somewhat better than it was yesterday. It will rain but possibly not enough to turn it into a bog. If that’s the case the 28/1 about Lancaster Bomber is just far too big. He was great at Royal Ascot when it’s possible he beat Churchill on merit. Barney Roy isn’t here and I just don’t see enough dangers to have him anywhere near the 7/1 to place he is with 365. On this track I don’t think it’s out of the question he doesn’t get caught at all once the ground has any good in it.


2 Points EW 28/1 365 ¼ Place 28/1 1/5 place paddy/vc/betfair

Massimo Tara

It's pouring down here in the UK. I'm only about 30 miles from goodwood. Something to consider with Lancaster.

Harry Angstrom

Massimo Tara wrote: »

It's pouring down here in the UK. I'm only about 30 miles from goodwood. Something to consider with Lancaster.

Desperate conditions. Looks like Cheltenham in November. Ground should be ideal for Ribchester.

longshotvalue

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Desperate conditions. Looks like Cheltenham in November. Ground should be ideal for Ribchester.

Yeah i think the Clerk of the course has it hugely wrong there. Good/Soft my !!

Harry Angstrom

Churchill out.

Cortina_MK_IV

Took a punt on Lancaster @28/1... In to 16 now.

diomed

€5 at 80s Toscanini

longshotvalue

Cortina_MK_IV wrote: »

Took a punt on Lancaster @28/1... In to 16 now.

The bet is a disaster now with only 7 runners . Only hope the rest of the field is effected worse.

diomed

Only six runners now, sorry, seven runners, and one a pacemaker, Toscanini.
Does Ribchester need a pacemaker with only four real opponents?

Harry Angstrom

WTF was Buick up to?

byronbay2

What the fúck was Buick doing there?? Long ban surely beckons.

diomed

Battling win for Here Comes When at about 30s on Betfair.
I got a good run from 4th 5th Toscanini.
But looking at my bets I found I had €5 at 80s Kool Kompany (in error), and €5 at 160s Toscanini.

diomed

Aidan O'Brien probably was right to take Churchill out.
The conditions changed so much it didn't suit fast horses.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

Aidan O'Brien probably was right to take Churchill out.
The conditions changed so much it didn't suit fast horses.

He should have taken out Lancaster Bomber as well, Churchill thrived on Soft ground in the Irish 2,000 Guineas while poor old Lancaster Bomber ( typical War Front) really flopped on the soft in the Irish Guineas.

diomed

He might have left Lancaster Bomber in so as not to ruin the race totally.
Churchill is the stallion prospect that needs one good win before retiring.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

He might have left Lancaster Bomber in so as not to ruin the race totally.
Churchill is the stallion prospect that needs one good win before retiring.

True, and Lancaster Bomber bounced back from his Soft ground run at the Curragh so the run won't damage him and there was always the chance he could place in such a small field.

Lancaster Bomber is an admirably tough GP1 placed horse himself who would make a nice stallion prospect for a smaller stud.

diomed

Only one favourite has won so far in the first two days of Goodwood.

Ultimate Seduction

Any good each way tips for me lads

longshotvalue

Goodwood 3:35

I'll probably be cheering on Winter like most but this is going to be a stayers race and Hydrangea has some very decent form on softer ground notably when just failing to peg back Rhododendron last year. It looks to me as if all the older horses will be better on good ground and the 3yo allowance will be huge in this race. Hydrangea just looks more of a stayer than the fav and 12/1 looks value in this field

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

Galway 2:50

This is a minefield but I'm just going to go blindly with a horse I said would do something soon and hopefully today is the day. Dinkum Diamond would carry all these on his back on his form in the uk and hopefully today is the day he gets back to form. Its easily worth the risk to find out at 25/1 with 5 places. His best form since the move over here was on soft ground of a higher mark

2 Points EW 25/1 5 places Paddy / Sky 28/1 4 places 365/lads/vc/betway

Galway 4:25

Another cliff horse that paid us back for support in the past is Western Boy. I had all barrels loaded for him in this race last year and couldn't have been more confident. He didn't get in and I'm hopeful that he still is a very good prospect that he looked in Vautour's Supreme. He won easily for us in Punchestown and I feel he still has plenty of improvement on a mark of 137.

2 Points win 14/1 generally

James Bond Junior

aidankkk wrote: »

Goodwood 3:35

I'll probably be cheering on Winter like most but this is going to be a stayers race and Hydrangea has some very decent form on softer ground notably when just failing to peg back Rhododendron last year. It looks to me as if all the older horses will be better on good ground and the 3yo allowance will be huge in this race. Hydrangea just looks more of a stayer than the fav and 12/1 looks value in this field

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

Galway 2:50

This is a minefield but I'm just going to go blindly with a horse I said would do something soon and hopefully today is the day. Dinkum Diamond would carry all these on his back on his form in the uk and hopefully today is the day he gets back to form. Its easily worth the risk to find out at 25/1 with 5 places. His best form since the move over here was on soft ground of a higher mark

2 Points EW 25/1 5 places Paddy / Sky 28/1 4 places 365/lads/vc/betway

Galway 4:25

Another cliff horse that paid us back for support in the past is Western Boy. I had all barrels loaded for him in this race last year and couldn't have been more confident. He didn't get in and I'm hopeful that he still is a very good prospect that he looked in Vautour's Supreme. He won easily for us in Punchestown and I feel he still has plenty of improvement on a mark of 137.

2 Points win 14/1 generally

Did a patent with these today Aidan. Thanks for all the tips, I've made a nice few bob this year following you.

Harry Angstrom

Endless Time won the Lancashire Oaks in similar ground conditions at Haydock last year. Excuses for its poor run in the Ascot Gold Cup. Should take the beating in the next.

Harry Angstrom

Nice one.

Earendil

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Endless Time won the Lancashire Oaks in similar ground conditions at Haydock last year. Excuses for its poor run in the Ascot Gold Cup. Should take the beating in the next.

Well done Harry.

diomed

I think Winter won't win this.

Edit: wrong again.

longshotvalue

5:35 Goodwood
I had Marsha down as one of the bets of the week earlier on but it’s hard to know now with the ground the way it is. This track will suit but we can’t go mad because she is unproven on soft. 7/1 is still a huge price in this race and value.
2 Points win 7/1 generally
3:00 Goodwood
First Selection may have finally come down to a mark he can win of. He ran some great races on soft ground in Group 1’s a couple of years ago and paid for it since. He showed a bit of improvement last time out and if he progresses again 28/1 is a big price here. Sir Roderic’s for is all on soft when he ran up a sequence last year. He has also come back down to a reasonable mark.
1 Point EW First Selection 5 places paddy/betfair 28/1 6 Places Sky
1 Point win Sir Roderic’s 25/1 365/hills/vc

famagusta

Powersbomb and benkei for me today, neither got a clear run earlier in the week

Harry Angstrom

That Baattash is very good. He's value to beat Lady Aurelia at York.

longshotvalue

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

That Baattash is very good. He's value to beat Lady Aurelia at York.

Looked very good. He'd certainly beat her with cut in ground. Marsha will improve on better ground but then Lady Aurelia and Batash will probably be even better. Looks between the 2.

longshotvalue

3:35 Goodwood

This race is a head wreaker for me as I had Donjuan Triumphant in mind for this for ages, especially if the ground was on the soft side. He was 33/1 all week and I waited for extra places etc and now he is 20/1 so the value is gone. I’m going to go with a lot of the trainers opinion instead a general opinion that high draw may be best. Mobsta has a couple of eye-popping runs this year on softer ground that would put him right in the picture here. A repeat of his Duke of York run from earlier this year would actually be enough to win here and after a few bad runs of fast ground he looked a bit better last time out. My guess is he will be ready to fire today at a huge price. The more I look at it Growl may well be far too good for thee with a very good 7lbs claimer on but I just can’t go with an 8/1 fav in this field. Unfortunately with no value low in going to have to go with another high draw. Outback Traveller will like the ground we can safely assume that he is well capable of picking up another of these race soon enough and 28/1 is value of a workable mark.


1.5 Points EW Mobsta 50/1 7 places Sky 50/1 6 places Ladbrokes/Coral


1 Point Win Outback Traveller28/1 Hills/Lads

longshotvalue

Goodwood 2:25

Felix Mendelssohn looks a real stayer and has form in the book already that makes his current mark look doable. He has a lovely racing weight and is actually fairly unexposed compared to a lot of these. If he improved from his very good seasonal reappearance he will be close. The ground shouldn’t be any problem. 12/1 is decent for what looks one of the more likely winners


1 Point win 12/1 Generally


5:20 Goodwood

I’m a sucker for a 3 figure price. Retreive has been on the downgrade but some of his runs have shown promise that and increase in fitness would give him hope. HE also has pleny of form on soft. Don’t get me wrong he is a 50/1 shot at best but 50/1 shots that are prices at up to 125/1 have to be backed. His mark and a 7lbs claimer with a low weight mught just wake him up.


1 Point EW 125/1 Lads 100/1 Generally

1:50 Goodwood

Stellarta ran well in this last year. I think there is a chance she will be better on softer ground even though there is no evidence yet to prove it. She is very consistent on the AW surface and that augurs well for this surface. 28/1 seems a decent price for a consistent horse that might just be hard to know out of the 5 here.


1 Points EW 28/1 5 places paddy/fred/tote