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August 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 28-07-2017 8:11am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,187 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for August, 2017. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.1 deg C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during August.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature during August (see above for overview).

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during August.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during August.

    6. Bonus question. On what date will the monthly maximum temperature take place? And at what location? (equal points for these two components, 2 and 1 point superbonus available).

    Enter by 0300h Tuesday 1st of August, with penalties of 1 point every three hours late (or portion thereof), to 0300h Thursday 3rd, then increasing to one further point every hour. Two point deductions for any correct bonus answers that are based on data already reported at time of forecast (will apply for example to 1st if you enter at 1800h or later, and guess what may be reported before that).

    Good luck, I considered going with the lightning bonus as suggested, but the pattern didn't look too promising for that on a quick glance.

    Normal for all values __ 15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ date loc'n see below

    Normal will score points for location of max temp on the basis of climatology, for date it will be 5 points first ten days, 4 11th to 18th, 3 19th to 24th, 2 for 25th to 28th and 1 for 29th to 31st. For location, Shannon, Moore Park, Oak Park, Casement will score five, Dublin, Phoenix Park, Johnstown Castle, Gurteen, Mullingar will score four, various inland stations otherwise will score three, southern coastal stations will score two and northern coastal stations including Mace Head and Belmullet will score one. Ties for date and location will be resolved by double point differentials and best fit to your forecast, but for Normal, ties will be scored as averages of points applicable to each tied value.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ____ 14.7 _ 24.8 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 85 __ 19th, Mt Dillon

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal ____ 14.6 _ 23.7 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 96 __ 2nd, Phoenix Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry____ 14.8 _ 24.4 _ 2.5 _ 122 _ 95 __ 17th, Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    sunflower3_____14.8_____25.1____3.2____107____95_____14th oakpark


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels
    14.9 _ 25.4 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 92 __ 19th, Oak Park


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  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29____ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 95 _ 105 __ 15th, Mullingar


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts ____ 14.4 _ 23.8 _ 5.0 _ 90 _ 85 __ 15th, Oak Park


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,103 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ____ 15.3 _ 28.1 _ 3.6 _ 98 _ 105 _ 21st, Shannon


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi ____ 15.0 _ 24.7 _ 2.8 _ 110 _ 95 __ 17th, Shannon Airport


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa ____ 15.0 _ 27.1 _ 2.4 _ 133 _ 89 _ 23rd, Oak Park


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  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 15.3 ___ 25.0 ___ 4.00 ___ 106 ___ 89 ___ 14th ___ Shannon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways__ 15.2 _ 24.3 _ 1.3 _ 120 _ 97 __  17th Casement


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    johnmac ____ 15.0 _ 27.1 _ 3.1_ 110 _ 97 _ 22nd, pheonix park


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public __ 15.3 _ 24.9 _ 2.7 _ 110 _ 105 __ 14th Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _______ 15.1 _ 26.7 _ 4.3 _ 107 _ 97 _ 14 Phoenix Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,756 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire ____ 15.2 _ 25.1 _ 3.6 _ 108 _ 95 __ 12th, Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn __ 14.8 _ 25.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 120 __ 10 Phoenix Park Dublin.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,187 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium _______ 15.4 _ 26.7 _ 0.9 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 30th, Shannon


  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner........14.9.......24.9.......4.5........110.......102.......Phoenix 15.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ___ 15.5 ____ 27.0 ____ 2.0 ____ 90 ___ 120 ___ Johnstown Castle 20th


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Warmest Day so far pheonix Park 20.3c August 1st ....to last for one day:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,187 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for August 2017


    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max temp date loc'n

    Rikand ______ (-3) __15.5 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 20 _ Johnstown C
    M.T. Cranium _______15.4 _ 26.7 _ 0.9 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 30 _ Shannon
    DOCARCH _________ 15.3 _ 28.1 _ 3.6 _ 098 _ 105 ____ 21 _ Shannon
    Dasa29____________15.3 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 095 _ 105 ____ 15 _ Mullingar
    Kindred Spirit ______ 15.3 _ 25.0 _ 4.0 _ 106 _ 089 ____ 14 _ Shannon
    Joe Public _________ 15.3 _ 24.9 _ 2.7 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 14 _ Oak Park
    Rameire ___________15.2 _ 25.1 _ 3.6 _ 108 _ 095 ____ 12 _ Oak Park
    waterways _________15.2 _ 24.3 _ 1.3 _ 120 _ 097 ____ 17 _ Casement

    NormaL ___________ 15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.9 _ 100 _ 100 ____ (see note in post 1)

    Tae laidir __________15.1 _ 26.7 _ 4.3 _ 107 _ 097 ____ 14 _ Phoenix Park
    johnmac __________ 15.0 _ 27.1 _ 3.1 _ 110 _ 097 ____ 22 _ Phoenix Park

    Con Sensus ________15.0 _ 25.1 _ 3.0 _ 110 _ 097 ____ 15 _ Oak Park

    Dacogawa _________ 15.0 _ 27.1 _ 2.4 _ 133 _ 089 ____ 23 _ Oak Park
    Lumi _____________ 15.0 _ 24.7 _ 2.8 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 17 _ Shannon
    200motels _________14.9 _ 25.4 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 092 ____ 19 _ Oak Park
    MrSkinner ___ (-2) __14.9 _ 24.9 _ 4.5 _ 110 _ 102 ____ 15 _ Phoenix Park
    Jpmarn ___________ 14.8 _ 25.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 120 ____ 10 _ Phoenix Park
    sunflower3 ________ 14.8 _ 25.1 _ 3.2 _ 107 _ 095 ____ 14 _ Oak Park
    Pauldry ___________ 14.8 _ 24.4 _ 2.5 _ 122 _ 095 ____ 17 _ Oak Park
    sryanbruen ________ 14.7 _ 24.8 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 085 ____ 19 _ Mt Dillon
    Bsal ______________14.6 _ 23.7 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 096 _____ 2 _ Phoenix Park
    mickger844posts ____14.4 _ 23.8 _ 5.0 _ 090 _ 085 ____ 15 _ Oak Park
    _________________________________________________________

    For the warmest day and location, Oak Park was picked by 7/20, Phoenix Park by 5 and Shannon by 4. Casement, Mt Dillon, Mullingar and Johnstown Castle were picked by one person in each case.

    Con Sensus will score 5,4,3,2 for location based on those picks being the actual location, and one if it's somewhere else.

    NormaL scoring for the bonus is explained in the first post.

    As to scoring your forecast, warmest day will determine the scoring of locations but if some place does better than top five on that day, on some other day, then it will get into the list instead. If we are all wrong on location of top three then scoring will start from 3/5 with whatever choices are correct (don't think this is going to happen unless there's a wild southeasterly event). As to scoring the dates, that will be solely determined by the maximum, and separation by days. A close second will not generate any mini-curves of scores unless it's within 0.2 then it will score off 3 points. In the event of a tie (for warmest day, different locations and dates) your better score counts.

    Our group consensus appears to be just slightly pessimistic about August, marginally cooler than average, especially in terms of warm spells, and a bit on the moist and dreary side of normal, but with a few somewhat optimistic outliers.

    Good luck, we have the full contingent of regular forecasters but will add any stragglers to the table.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    " Max rain date loc'n " ???


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Joe Public wrote: »
    " Max rain date loc'n " ???

    The maximum daily rainfall for August 2017 along with its date and loc'n aka location.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    should be max temp.. :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    John mac wrote: »
    should be max temp.. :cool:

    Oh I see :o

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,187 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Thanks for spotting that, as I mentioned in the July thread, I was feeling "under the weather" earlier, a lot better now, heavy smoke pollution and heat are (were) combining to wreak havoc on my fragile bod.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,187 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT was 14.6, which was 0.9 deg below average for the period.

    PRC was 94% of normal.

    SUN was 100.8% of normal.

    MAX and MIN have not really begun their serious work yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    What has been the max temp so far?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    I think 22.7c or so in Pheonix Park on 2nd or 3rd


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