Property .. calling the top!

Hitman3000

draiochtanois wrote:

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You believe it won't again? Really. How many recessions in the last 100 years?

lawred2

optogirl wrote: »

Just so depressing. My only hope for owning my own home is a crash.

yeah and then the bank won't lend to you anyway unless you've got 50% cash

crashes do little for anybody but the cash rich..

draiochtanois

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Hitman3000

draiochtanois wrote:

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The end result is usually the same.

draiochtanois wrote:

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She could be flush with cash, I don't know and don't expect to be told.

Hitman3000

Hitman3000 wrote: »

The end result is usually the same...............

Indeed, most people who couldn't buy precrash can't buy during it either.

The_B_Man

If there is another crash relatively soon, it wont be as bad, as a lot of people have been saving their money since the last crash.
So if/when it happens, a lot of people will have their deposits ready to go, which will halt, or mitigate, the affects of the crash.

The_B_Man

The_B_Man wrote: »

If there is another crash relatively soon, it wont be as bad, as a lot of people have been saving their money since the last crash.
So if/when it happens, a lot of people will have their deposits ready to go, which will halt, or mitigate, the affects of the crash.

I'd imagine (purely opinion) many of them bought in 2011 to 2014 period.
I'd agree the next crash if soon won't be as bad as we have huge demand for properties..... government spending heaps on housing homeless people in emergency accommodation and we don't have a lot of stuff for sale or halfway through being built. Also prices aren't yet near the 2007 peaks either.

q85dw7osi4lebg

The_B_Man wrote: »

If there is another crash relatively soon, it wont be as bad, as a lot of people have been saving their money since the last crash.
So if/when it happens, a lot of people will have their deposits ready to go, which will halt, or mitigate, the affects of the crash.

But will banks not cut lending if there is another crash?

Stephanie Magnificent Puck

Stephanie Magnificent Puck wrote: »

But will banks not cut lending if there is another crash?

Yup, but if you are employed with something like a 50% deposit and looking to buy a property to live in than you'll get a mortgage of one of them without issue

optogirl

The_B_Man wrote: »

If there is another crash relatively soon, it wont be as bad, as a lot of people have been saving their money since the last crash.
So if/when it happens, a lot of people will have their deposits ready to go, which will halt, or mitigate, the affects of the crash.

Yep - that's what I'm hoping

Idbatterim

Augeo wrote: »

Not at all IMO, few hotels and office blocks being done in city centre, some factories in D15.

Now, over the coming years there's 12m square feet of office space to be built.
Building apartments in the city is still deemed to be largely unviable due to the aspect rules etc.

I think it's accepted that we are building 20% ish of what's deemed needed for residential use. A building boom in commercial space would increase demand for living accomodation

All considered, Dublin residential property not at top yet IMO.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/crane-watch-69-cranes-over-the-centre-of-dublin-on-july-1st-1.3150785?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fcommercial-property%2Fcrane-watch-69-cranes-over-the-centre-of-dublin-on-july-1st-1.3150785

Idbatterim

Idbatterim wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/crane-watch-69-cranes-over-the-centre-of-dublin-on-july-1st-1.3150785?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fcommercial-property%2Fcrane-watch-69-cranes-over-the-centre-of-dublin-on-july-1st-1.3150785

So you reckon we have a building boom?
How many cranes above whatever's normal do we have now ?

PMBC

draiochtanois wrote: »

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Why, if ther are more people employed - and I'm not saying that isn't so - are income tax receipts down, for the last few months?

draiochtanois

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Idbatterim

there is a lot of commercial property being built. in the city centre, that is what most of them are building. There is still a huge shortage of housing being built... there are a large amount of reasons for this... The quickest thing they could do is get empty housing back on the market...

The_B_Man

optogirl wrote: »

Yep - that's what I'm hoping

I meant the opposite! Prices won't dip as low as there'll be a line of people ready to pounce, with their life savings, who will outbid each other, driving prices straight back up! It won't be as bad for anyone that does decide to sell in that period. Although why would you?? The good deals were had the last time coz there was a load of houses being built and people were caught by surprise. Nobody is building housing estates anymore!

I'm in a 1 bed apartment, and just had a kid, so my time there is finite. I'm gonna have to just bite the bullet and pay way over the odds next summer, when the kid is 1, as we'll have outgrown it. So my logic is this; My parents bought their house in the early 70s for about £5k and at the height of the boom, with an extension and improvements, was valued towards €500k. So I'll use that same logic to justify paying €350k on a house (that a friend bought a similar one for a few years back for €150k!!) that in 2050 will be worth 35 million!! :P:P

Sure then who cares about 200k!!

ste

Conversations have been happening forever about Irish property; when is the next peak, crash, are we at bottom, when will we top etc. A few posters here are probably thinking about this for the first time in their lives. Read conversations on thepropertypin and askaboutmoney if you want to see conversations from, during and after our last boom/bust.

Lesson, you can generally justify whatever view/bias you have (even if you don't believe you have a bias).

As a property owner what's my biased opinion?
There's still enough cash out there to fuel price growth for few years.
A few things will happen a few years later;
- more houses will be built
- the stock market will crash
- the bank of mummy & daddy, largely fueled by house price equity & DB pensions which (with some exceptions) will soon be exhausted
- house values will revert more towards being a function of wages;
- the above for me means the middle will hold but Toppy areas & values will decline (in real value terms).

€40k odd is AVG full time wage. Generally Dublin homes will have 2 earners. Dublin wages are higher generally. 3.5 or 4.0 as multiple of borrowings wth 10-30% deposit. I think €400-500k in today's money will buy a 3bed semi-d in decent Dublin burbs.

So where we are today is sustainable. We'll have frothiness for few years. We'll revert largely to wage-linked values in a decade (whatever that means eh!!!).

Idbatterim

as the poster above says, where do you even start and end on this "debate" generally you can call the top or bottom precisely, it only becomes apparent months or many months afterwards.

I don't THINK that we would have anything as severe as the last crash for several reasons, I think having seen how it panned out this time, how resilient the irish economy is, how good our fundamentals are, that people wouldnt all act in the "sky is going to fall in" manner that happened last time...

If a nama scenario were repeated, I don't think there a chance in hell that politically they could get away with selling a lot of the good stuff to "vulture funds" at absolute steal prices...

ixus

It's a mistake to say easy credit is not available. It is difficult to purchase multiple properties as a BTL landlord but, a FTB had access to very cheap credit.

A FTB can borrow at ~3% which is historically low here.
A FTB can get up to 20k tax back from the govt.
BOI are offering 3% cash back PLUS have a 2k reward on offer if you save with them for 6 months.

In theory, a FTB could purchase a 400k house with as little as 10k in savings.
20k from govt, 8k at 2%. BOI Cash plus the 2k savings account. With additional 1% if stuck with BOI for 5yrs.

A FTB can essentially borrow at 10k/400k = 97.5%

The BTL landlord has been replaced by foreign money buying for cash and purchasing in large transactions in a search for central bank driven yield. Should foreign cash pull out for whatever reason, the tide will go out fast.

draiochtanois

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ixus

ixus wrote: »

............

A FTB can essentially borrow at 10k/400k = 97.5%..............

To borrow €390k what salary would this first time buyer/couple require?

The_B_Man

Can you even use the 20k tax back as part of your deposit (if you get the whole 20k)?
Also, isn't that only for new builds or self-builds? Where I want to live, there's no land or no new builds, so that money isn't worth the displacement for me.

draiochtanois

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ixus

The 20k govt rebate is part of deposit. That's the whole purpose. So, now, for a 400k gaff, you need 20k savings plus 20k rebate.

But, then, BOI give you 2% of the 360k borrowed or, 7.2k cash back. Plus 2k for saving with them.

So, of the 20k savings you put in, you get 9.2k cash back from BOI and have only used 10.8k of your savings.

This shouldn't be difficult to figure out.

At 3.5 times earnings, a joint salary of just over 100k required.

The point is, credit supply is very strong, and cheap. That's the whole purpose of the ECB's QE program.

ligerdub

Hard to trust prices of any market based on small volumes.

It also depends on your perspective.

Are prices in Dublin higher than what could generally perceived to be good value based purely on salaries? Probably not.

Are those prices justified by the relative comparable cost of renting? I'd say yes.

Are they justified based on the available supply? Certainly.

123shooter

Idbatterim wrote: »

there is a lot of commercial property being built. in the city centre, that is what most of them are building. There is still a huge shortage of housing being built... there are a large amount of reasons for this...

There was at the peak of the boom as well, in fact there was at the peak of every boom in the UK.

Where are we now?........At the time you should have them up for sale and preying that it is all completed and cash in the bank.

Before there was an almost endless amount of buyers due to banks lending silly amounts to people who could not afford it.

Now your potential buyers - you just have cash buyers (wealthy people) and people with high wage jobs..........Your potential buyers market is almost exhausted and the big black clouds on the market are very big and black with Brexit etc.

ixus

Just to add on my credit point earlier. I think some got hung up on the 400k which wasn't the purpose. The numbers fit for any figure below 400k for a FTB.

Example:
300k gaff
30k deposit requires
5% ftb rebate = 15k
2% BOI cashback = 5.4k (2% of 270k - a 77k joint salary)
BOI saving bonus = 2k
Actual cash you end up putting down = 7.6k or about 97.5% LTV

celtic_oz

it would be great if people would actually just pick an emotion off the graph .. you can justify it all you like but time will tell

RandomUsername

celtic_oz wrote: »

it would be great if people would actually just pick an emotion off the graph .. you can justify it all you like but time will tell

I'll go with Thrill

Between excitement and thrill in Dublin and surrounding areas, between denial and despondency for much of the rest of the country