Royal Ascot Tues 20th - Sat 24th June

mohican22

Folks opening a thread so people can start discussing,posting tips and fancies.

My NAP is Happy like a Fool in the Queen Mary will be having a good punt on that and doing a treble of Ribchester,Winter and Order of St George pays 5/1 with Paddy.

madmoose

Ive been backing Decorated knight for the POW at 12/1 and you can still get that with the odd firm. Jack Hobbs, Ulesses and Highland Reel ahead of him though and they should run, i like the way he won the tatts gold cup lto and i expect more to come.

madmoose

Regarding the above it's more of a value perspective than a major fancy but the front 2 are short enough.

Copper_pipe

Ive gone for the Wes Ward double on Happy Like A Fool 5/2 and Lady Aurelia 7/2

Last few years there was soft ground at royal ascot, its looking like it will be fast ground this year. Wards horses should be a bit better on faster going

NorthDub69

Churchill and winter double looks a model lads

diomed

I'll be looking to oppose odds-on horses.
To win they need to be at the top of their game again.
Epsom runners are always doubtful prospects.
I'm interested in entries from outside Ireland and Britain.

tryfix

Ribchester is the banker, the opposition is poor and he's proven at the Ascot track .

EICVD

NorthDub69 wrote: »

Churchill and winter double looks a model lads

Be brave & throw in Caravaggio & Order of St George too

gazza1

MARSHA in the Kings Stand is my bet of the meeting

PM me nudes

Can't see Ribchester being beaten at all

Fairyland is Wes Ward's winner this year

Think Marsha has a huge chance against Lady Aurelia and will back accordingly

Harry Angstrom

Stoute's been talking up the chances of Mainstream in the Duke of Edinburgh H'Cap on Friday, owned by the Queen. 7/1 AP with Paddy, I can't see it being that price on the day.

diomed

I listed the odds of all the 2016 Royal Ascot winners.
About half were in the 5/1 to 9/1 range.

diomed

Dream Castle is the only Frankel horse running in the first two days of Royal Ascot.
14:30 Wednesday 7f Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo)

He is 3/1 favourite in the 29 runner race ridden by Josephine Gordon
Is he dropping down in class and distance to pick up his first Group win?
He was 5th in the 2000 Guineas last race btn 3 1/4 l.
I will be looking for something to beat him. 3/1 is a poor price.

Ribchester won this race last year at 7/1 (19 runners). He has been 3rd in the 2000 Guineas in previous race btn 3 1/2 l, and had won a Group 2 before that.

diomed

Here are a few of my thoughts for Royal Ascot

I believe Clerks of the Course seldom tell the truth about the going.
Turftrax today say about Ascot: Official Going: Good to Firm, Good in places, watering.

I went back to the book Winning Without Thinking by Nick Mordin.
He compared reported going descriptions with going calculated from race times.
He was concerned that going descriptions given for jump racing were wrong, and the situation is probably the same on the flat.

reported factor actual
hard 0.0 0.0 0.0
firm 0.8 0.1 8.0
good/firm 12.1 0.7 17.3
good 34.1 2.4 14.2
good/soft 21.7 1.2 18.1
soft 22.5 1.4 16.1
heavy 8.8 0.3 29.3

100.0 103.0


This table shows "good" was reported 34.1% of the time.
Nick Mordin calculated that "good" was over-reported by a factor of 2.4
My calculations of the true going are on the right (didn't multiply to 100% exactly).

The going at Epsom for the Oaks and Derby this year was given as "good" both days.
I know it rained heavily for a short time on Oaks day but I'm talking about the ground, not the weather.
Enable in the Oaks set the fastest Epsom Oaks time ever.
Wings Of Eagles in the Derby set the 4th fastest Epsom Derby time ever.
These two are the best horses ever, or the ground was very fast.
I'm guessing the going at Epsom was actually "firm" or "hard".


Royal Ascot plan

• bet horses proven on firm going/avoid horses proven on soft, and ignore going descriptions unless there is heavy rain
  (not forecast and today's temperature is about 30 degrees, with 27 degrees the next two days).
• back horses carrying higher weights in handicaps up to a mile as the fast going will not slow these better horses (low weights do not speed up horses).
• ignore pundits who say the pace is on one side of a race
• take on short price favourites as horses are closely matched at this level
• bet small in every race, similar amounts in each
• avoid horses that ran at Epsom, with one possible exception, De Bruyne Horse
  

Mgoraf

Do you think all shorties are closely matched? OOSG for example is 6 clear on rpr and 3 on official rating.

Winter is 4 clear on OR and 6 on rpr.

diomed

I assume the question is to me.

My plan is to not take too much heed of ratings for a few reasons

• the ground will likely be faster than when the ratings were earned (for 2yos, 3yos)
• many of the Ascot races are over a straight mile that will be a different test to where the form was earned (except Newmarket)
• horses will have had hard races earlier in the season and might not reproduce form
• dominating form against lesser horses might not be reproduced against stronger fields
• some of the form will not tie in to GB & IRE form (French, USA form)
• people will do the usual calculations for beaten length, extra weight and so on assuming that holds for different distances / going

diomed

14:30 American Patriot at 25
15:05 De Bruyne Horse at 8
15:40 Take Cover at 36
16:20 Thunder Snow at 15
17:00 Yorkidding at 19.5
17:35 Simmy's Copshop at 17.5

gazza1

2.30 RIBCHESTER ( doubled with CHURCHILL)
3.05 RAJASINGHE EW / ROMANISED EW
3.40 MARSHA NAP
4.20 as above
5.00 BEYOND CONCEIPT EW
5.40 DECLARATIONOFPEACE

BOL and enjoy the racing.

NaiveMelodies

Yuften on Wednesday only bet of the week. 22s with Lads.

Andalucia

Prince of the Dark in the Coventry

madmoose

Prince of the dark for me too.

Copper_pipe

Mate who is a Trader for Betfair says the owner of Prince of Dark has 7.5k each way @ 20/1. It was impressive on debut and the time of that race was very quick.

20/1 with Boyles for 3 places
18/1 with Bet365 for 4 places

BumperD

Ribchester looks very vulnerable Day 1. I don't fancy him at all.

Francie Barrett

diomed wrote: »

16:20 Thunder Snow at 15

Hope this pig of a horse plants itself like it did at Churchill Downs.

Lancaster Bomber at 33/1 just strikes me as much better value, has the breeding and form over firm ground to easily run into a place tomorrow.

I am with you on American Patriot though.

Copper_pipe

Day 1,

Good luck if ya follow!

2:30 Queen Anne Stakes:

The opening race of Royal Ascot the 2:30 is the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes to be run over 1 mile. There is a big field for this race with 16 runners but in truth only about four horses have a chance of winning this. A lot of these are not group 1 level and will be outclassed and the trends confirm this. The main ones in this are Ribchester, Lightning Spear, Mutakayyef and the US raider American Patriot.

Lightning Spear was placed in this race last year and has shown a decent level of form this season. He is 0 from 4 against Ribchester though and no 6 year old has won this race in the past 10 years. He’ll like the ground but will most likely be playing for a place. Mutakayyef is another who will like the fast ground. He’s got decent course form and he improved an awful lot last season. Ran no sort of race on his reappearance in Meydan but the ground was against him then.

Ribchester is the one who will take all the beating in this race. This horse is a proven Group 1 winner and was very impressive when winning the Lockinge Stakes over Lightning Spear last month. Slight doubt about Ribchester on this ground but I think his class will see him through. Both Mutakayyef and Lightning Spear could get closer to him but I think RIBCHESTER ★★★★ will get the punters off to a great start. American Patriot is a proven Group 1 performer in his native country and he’ll really like the ground. He could be the one to chase home Ribchester at a nice price under Frankie Dettori.

3:05 Coventry Stakes:

The second race on the card is the Coventry Stakes which is a Group 2 for 2 year olds due to be run over 6f. This is a very open race and there isn’t much form to go on.The Wes Ward trained Arawak is sure to be the early pace in this race and could well steal a march on them. Nearly all of Wes Wards winning 2yo’s though were over 5f so the trip might just be too far for that one. Rajasinghe was impressive on debut, this is a big jump up in class though. He’s sure to have a good future but he might just be out of his depth here. Murillo is the best of the Aidan O’Brien runners and looked like one to follow when he won at Tipperary last month. O’Brien has a great record in this race and this one is sure to be in the mix up.

Romanised comes from the small yard of Ken Condon’s. He could well have a future star on his hands though with this horse. He really took the eye when winning his only start at Navan in April. The form of that race has worked out well and he’s one of the outsiders with a decent place chance. Brother Bear is 2 from 2 and comes from the Jessica Harrington yard. She had a great season over the jumps with her horses and now she looks for Royal Ascot glory. Her horse Brother Bear just did enough to win on debut but created a greater impression on it’s 2nd start where he beat a good field at the Curragh in a Listed race. He could well be the one they all have to beat. De Bruyne Horse is 2 from 3 and this won won well at Epsom last time out. His trainer Richard Hannon has a solid record in this race and this one is another who will be bang there at the finish.
It’s tough to separate most of these but the one horse who could be different class is the Clive Cox trained Prince of the Dark. This horse was easy in the market on debut at Bath but he was very impressive. He travelled strongly and won easily in the end. The time of that race was very quick I know that this horse is the apple of his trainer’s eye. The yard has had a great record this season with their 2yo’s and I think this one looks like great value at 16/1. De Bruyne Horse and Brother Bear won’t be easy to beat but the one I like is PRINCE OF THE DARK ★★★ (1.5 E.W).

3:40 King's Stand Stakes:

This years Group 1 King's Stand Stakes looks like a really good renewal. Last years race was the weakest in some time but lots of top class sprinters in the field today such as Marsha, Goldream, Lady Aurelia and Signs of Blessing. Marsha won the Prix De L'abbaye last season for her trainer Sir Mark Prescott and she was as good as ever when winning last time out at Newmarket. She had a lot of today’s rivals in behind then and she gave the field 4lb. Today she gets 3lb from the whole field bar Lady Aurelia who she has to give 6lb too. So she’s 7lb better off with most of these based on that recent run where she won fair and square. She must have a tremendous chance today again.

Goldream who won this race in the past has looked better than ever this season without winning. He was placed in two trials for this race and wasn’t too far behind Marsha last time out. I think he’s a much better horse around here and I think he’s great value each way at odds of 14/1. Signs Of Blessing the French raider was very impressive last time out when giving Muthmir plenty of weight. I think he’ll go well and will show up for much of the race but all of his best form is on soft ground.

The fly in the ointment is though is the US raider Lady Aurelia who is trained by Wes Ward. This filly blitzed a big field in the Queen Mary here last year. It was a taking performance and the soft ground then did not slow her down. She disappointed when 3rd over 6f later in the season in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket. I don’t think she handled the track too well then and the trip was just too far for her. Her trained said that she’s just an out and out 5f sprinter and that he won’t try her over further again. She won the Queen Mary by 6l last year and the quicker ground today could see her put on a show. This will be the toughest competition she’s faced yet but she has the potential to be a world beater. She gets a nice allowance and she has a nice draw in 18. Frankie Dettori should be able to grab the rail and blaze away from them early. Marsha and Goldream will be finishing fast but I think LADY AURELIA ★★★ can steal this from the front today.

4:20 St James Palace Stakes:

This Group 1 race due to be run over 1 mile looks a straight match between the English and Irish 2000 Guineas winner Churchill and the English 2000 Guineas runner up Barney Roy. Churchill had everything his own way in the guineas at Newmarket. He was led into the race by his stablemates and Churchill got first run on the field. Barney Roy found some trouble in running and was a fast finishing 2nd. He was only beaten 1l in the finish. Most pundits think that Barney Roy would have won if ridden closer to the pace. I’m not too sure about that. Churchill isn’t a flashy horse, he always only does enough to win. I think if Barney Roy was ridden closer to the pace I think Churchill would still have fought him off. Churchill won the Irish equivalent since then from today’s rivals Thunder Snow and Lancaster Bomber. He was more impressive that day which suggest that he improved greatly from the Newmarket run. Barney Roy has not run since that race. Churchill has continued his progression by winning and I think he’ll be too good for Barney Roy yet again today. It will be close but I think Churchill will just do enough to win. His stablemate Lancaster Bomber should set a good pace and given the faster ground here he could well hold on for a place at big odds. It’s CHURCHILL ★★★★ for me over Barney Roy and Lancaster Bomber.

5:00 Ascot Stakes Handicap:

This race is run over a marathon trip of 2 miles and 4 furlongs. Dual purpose horses have a great record in this race, particularly Irish or Nicky Henderson trained horses. A lot of these are harshly treated and or won’t stay. I’ve narrowed the field down to six runners who I believe to have the best chances. Thomas Hobson is the favourite for this race and he is trained by Willie Mullins. He has done really well with his horses in this race and the Queen Alexandra Stakes. He’s won this race twice in the past 5 years. Thomas Hobson was a decent performer over middle distances for John Gosden when he last ran on the level. He has since been hurdling and has proven a capable performer. Ryan Moore is sure to give this one a great ride but I have my doubts about this one seeing out the trip. He’s never won over this trip on the flat and barely won over this trip over hurdles. He could well win this race but at the prices I couldn’t back a possible non stayer at 9/2.

Star Rider is one that will stay this trip, he won over the trip last season at Newmarket. He hasn’t shown much form since but at 28/1 he could sneak a place. The same can be said for Sueigoo. He was a fast finishing 2nd last time out and that should put him spot on for this race. He doesn’t have a great win strike rate but he could place. Magic Circle and Who Dares Wins both ran decent races in the Chester Cup over 2 miles 2f. The course didn’t suit neither horse and they will be much more at home at this track. Both have won over 2 miles but look like they will get this trip.

Who Dares Wins was unlucky that day and I think he rates a live contender in this field. Beyond Conceit is another one who has a great chance in this. His trainer Nicky Henderson is definitely one to follow in these staying races. This horse hasn’t run on the flat for some time but he was thought good enough to run in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham where he ran a great race. Since then he was 2nd in a Grade 1 at Aintree over 3 miles. No stamina doubts over this horse and I think he’s on a really nice mark. I think this race is between both Who Dares Wins and Beyond Conceit. There has been strong support for WHO DARES WINS ★★★ in the betting over the past few days and he’ll love the ground. He’s the one I like.

5:35 Windsor Castle Stakes:


This is a 5 furlong sprint for 2 year olds and it usually turns out to be a cavalry charge. Not much form to go on here but Wes Ward is the trainer to follow. He won this race in 2009 and in 2014 and both were runaway winners. The soft ground blunted the chances of his runners in this in recent years but the fast ground today will really suit his two runners. He runs Elizabeth Darcy and Nookta Sound. Both won impressively on debut in america. They both showed great early speed and won easily in the end. Elizabeth Darcy won on the turf while Nootka Sound won on the dirt. Wes Ward believes that Nootka Sound will be a much better horse on grass given her breeding. She put in a really nice piece of work at the track recently and she’s the mount of Frankie Dettori who had the pick of these two. Nootka Sound has a great draw and I think she’ll take an awful lot of catching. The Aidan O’Brien trained Declarationofpeace is sure to put up a fight though. This horse was very impressive last time out and this course and ground will suit. I doubt she’ll be able to go with Nootka Sound early on though. Last Page at 150/1 and Areen Faisal at 100/1 are outsiders with place chances. Areen Faisal is held in high regard by its trainer and Last Page was 2nd to Prince of the Dark last time out. If that one runs well in the Coventry Stakes earlier in the day it will boost this one's chances. NOOTKA SOUND ★★★ is my selection for this race though.

Nulty

I've had a few bets, mostly on others suggestions, barely any of my own work.

Im taking a shot on Suegioo in the Ascot stakes at 25s

Otherwise, I'm on Mutakayyef in the Anne, Romanised, De Bruyne Horse and Nebo in the Coventry, Signs Of Blessing in the Kings Stand.

Looking forward to the races more than the betting tbh

NaiveMelodies

Three in a row going for Prince in the Dark got me excited but maiden run and form is nothing to write home about at all? Anything I'm missing?
Edit- sorry just seen Coppers post re betfair bet. Obviously big talk about him so.

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Hope this pig of a horse plants itself like it did at Churchill Downs.
.

Odd stuff.

Slattsy

Beyond Conceit.

Only bet of the day.

PM me nudes

Aqabah for me in the Coventry at 25s

Can excuse his last run owing to ground

Have backed Declaration of Peace too

Harry Angstrom

BumperD wrote: »

Ribchester looks very vulnerable Day 1. I don't fancy him at all.

He's 7Ib better with some cut. On the other hand, there's not much to beat him on form, so a no bet race for me.

Marsha's win in the Palace House was remarkable, given that she's now getting weight from the horses she gave weight and a beating to in that race. If she's in that form she'll take plenty of beating in the King's Stand.

Harry Angstrom

De Bruyne Horse won a Listed at Epsom despite not really handling the track. A straight six at Ascot should suit him a lot better in The Coventry. 13/2 Paddy.

diomed

diomed wrote: »

14:30 American Patriot at 25
15:05 De Bruyne Horse at 8
15:40 Take Cover at 36
16:20 Thunder Snow at 15
17:00 Yorkidding at 19.5
17:35 Simmy's Copshop at 17.5

I also did a Heinz 57 each way bet at 0.12 a unit
Total Stake: €13.68 Pot. Win: €4,444,929.33 :rolleyes:

Copper_pipe

Dettori misses Royal Ascot

diomed

I picked something else for this race earlier.
On pedigree Roussel in the 17:35 appeals so I backed him as well at 12.5.

£360k was paid for him a few months ago in a breeze-up sale.
He won £6k in his first race recently.

WickIow Brave

Cougar Mountain e/w (50/1)

Romanised e/w (12/1)

Priceless e/w (16/1)

Churchill (4/6), Rivet e/w (28/1)

Beyond Conceit (13/2)

Declarationofpeace (3/1)

Massimo Tara

Did an e/w heinze 57 for the craic.
Mutakayyef 6/1
Nebo 12/1
Signs of blessing 6/1
Churchill 4/6
Beyond conceit 13/2
Declaration of peace 10/3

pmy.murphy

Could Lady Aurelia beat Marsha? Was extremely impressive in winning her race last year surely could take some beating if in similar forma again

The Jman

pmy.murphy wrote:

Could Lady Aurelia beat Marsha? Was extremely impressive in winning her race last year surely could take some beating if in similar forma again

I fancy her big time myself. 4/1 with a quarter odds on bet365 seems like a solid solid bet to me

supremenovice

The Jman wrote: »

I fancy her big time myself. 4/1 with a quarter odds on bet365 seems like a solid solid bet to me

Wesley Ward was sayin in the RP that Ryan Moore was purring about her after a workout last week. Enough said for me!

I know Aidan has tipped him up in his thread, but I also like US Navy Flag in the Coventry. Ive been critical of War Front colts in the past but they typically are well developed 2yo's that dont train on at 3yo, so US Navy Flag could follow in the footsteps of War Command and be a surprise winner.

idnkph

Did all ew bets for today.
Cougar mountain 33/1
Price of dark 16/1
Ardhoomey 25/1
Lancaster bomber 20/1
Suegioo 20/1.
Good look to all with their picks today.

Imhof Tank

Gone all in on Marsha in the Kings Stand.

Remember Pivotal winning this for Prescott back in the 90s. For all his handicapping exploits there is no better man with a pattern class horse, any age, and trip, IMO.

supremenovice

Im just back from Paddys and they are doing a free Lucky 31 tipping competition. (I think its shops only) Theres an i-pad on every cashier counter - you enter on that. Use your account to login and enter a Royal Ascot Lucky 31. I think its 10k to the winner - not bad for an interest.

EICVD

Just done a small stake Lucky 15 today for the interest. Mutakayyef, Murillo, Thomas Hobson & Declarationofpeace

BorneTobyWilde

What is temp there? 29c , that's in shade of course.
What is temp on track in direct sunlight?

superfurry1

Fancy Deauville in the First good price 14-1.

4068ac1elhodqr

supremenovice wrote: »

Im just back from Paddys and they are doing a free Lucky 31 tipping competition. (I think its shops only) Theres an i-pad on every cashier counter - you enter on that. Use your account to login and enter a Royal Ascot Lucky 31. I think its 10k to the winner - not bad for an interest.

Think it's called HotToTrot, available online also, but closes at 2.30.

There is also a very similar one with Sky called 'Pick7'. Recently was ranked #1 after the first four races (thanks partly to that Aidankkk chap and some lucky picks), but alas finished in top50 with just 5wins 1place from memory. There is around 75k entries All 7 wins is 100k but if not won next best is only 1k.

Harry Angstrom

Cougar Mountain very worked up there.

Johner

Best horse by a mile won but against stronger opposition you'd like to take Ribchester on.

diomed

Course record in the 1st race says the ground is hard.

Harry Angstrom

Paddy Power money back 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

Harry Angstrom

Johner wrote: »

Best horse by a mile won but against stronger opposition you'd like to take Ribchester on.

I'm convinced he's better on softer ground. Doesn't seem to run about as much.