Property slowdown in Dublin?

Am I the only one noticing a large number of houses which are not selling? I've been looking closely at the 500k-600k bracket in South County Dublin and South Dublin for the past 8 months plus. I've gone Sale Agreed and while I'm conscious that it is a bubble, I don't see any possibility of supply being increased here for a good number of years and we have to live (the mortgage repayment is substantially cheaper than rent). So, from my perspective buying now is the best of a bad lot (made substantially worse for me by the Fine Gael party lifting restrictions on lending in order to help their friends in the building industry - but that's a story for the next FG canvaseer on my door).

However, what seems to be going on now is that the latest Fine Gael-sponsored bubble - a combination of first time buyer grants, lifting lending restrictions and the comically described "exceptions" to lending rules which are, in fact, the norm (even if the media is ignoring this reality) - has peaked and people cannot get the mortgage to pay for the latest increases - and will not be getting that money until Fine Gael once again interfere in the not-so-free market to make it easier for people to borrow yet more money and thus increase the prices of property once again.

Is anybody else noticing a slowdown in Dublin?

PS: At the higher end of the market, the number of houses which are not selling is obvious beyond words. You might have noticed the subtle change where once MyHome used to state the date it came on the market, and price decrease/increase, it now doesn't state that in most cases. For instance, this was €10.5 million for a long time. It's now €8.5 million, but myhome is not acknowledging the drop/the auctioneer relisted the property as a first-time listing to try and erase the difficulty they had getting the initial asking price.

JP 1800

I have also gone sale agreed recently and I was just discussing this very thing with my father today. I have definitely noticed a slow down in the Dublin market in the 350 to 400K price range. The market was much more frothy at the start of the year with prices going crazy for mediocre properties and I am glad we did not get sucked into those as we went sale agreed on a better property under budget in May. When we were looking at the start of the year the open views were crazy but in contrast we were looking at a house just last week and the agent had to actually ring other parties as a lot of people did not bother turning up, at one property we were the only ones viewing, which was a significant contrast to several months ago.
I think the prices have reached a plateau in which people can not get any more money to purchase, i.e the banks will not lend more which is a good thing. I get the feeling that a lot of prospective buyers ( colleagues and friends of mine) have a budget and will not go above but are also being deliberately cautious about the market as there is a potential for the market to go the other way.

Cyrus

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Am I the only one noticing a large number of houses which are not selling? I've been looking closely at the 500k-600k bracket in South County Dublin and South Dublin for the past 8 months plus. I've gone Sale Agreed and while I'm conscious that it is a bubble, I don't see any possibility of supply being increased here for a good number of years and we have to live (the mortgage repayment is substantially cheaper than rent). So, from my perspective buying now is the best of a bad lot (made substantially worse for me by the Fine Gael party lifting restrictions on lending in order to help their friends in the building industry - but that's a story for the next FG canvaseer on my door).

However, what seems to be going on now is that the latest Fine Gael-sponsored bubble - a combination of first time buyer grants, lifting lending restrictions and the comically described "exceptions" to lending rules which are, in fact, the norm (even if the media is ignoring this reality) - has peaked and people cannot get the mortgage to pay for the latest increases - and will not be getting that money until Fine Gael once again interfere in the not-so-free market to make it easier for people to borrow yet more money and thus increase the prices of property once again.

Is anybody else noticing a slowdown in Dublin?

PS: At the higher end of the market, the number of houses which are not selling is obvious beyond words. You might have noticed the subtle change where once MyHome used to state the date it came on the market, and price decrease/increase, it now doesn't state that in most cases. For instance, this was €10.5 million for a long time. It's now €8.5 million, but myhome is not acknowledging the drop/the auctioneer relisted the property as a first-time listing to try and erase the difficulty they had getting the initial asking price.

Not sure about the second hand market but from what I've seen its still increasing on new builds prices rising between phases etc

Also noone I know has gotten any exemption on the mortgage rules is it that common ?

AsianDub

Not what Im seeing in the 500-600k in the North Dublin City market. Things are still nuts.

wordofwarning

IMO the biggest issue with selling a house in 2017 is how to price it. When several houses a year where being sold on a road, you could easily price it. Whereas in 2017, you might have only sold a house, 2/3 years ago. You have agents overpricing houses and getting no interest. Or accidently completely under pricing houses and being surprised at how well the house has done.

FYI the Central Bank is independent. The Government has no say on what they do. This 'notion' that the Government is telling them what to do is utter waffle and completely unfounded. The Central Bank does what is best for the country and not what FG tells them to do...

A subsidy of €10k for FTB only reduces the cost of new builds by 10k.

LirW

Can't agree with this on the second hand market in D9. Everything is priced really high here in the very north of D9, around 600k+ and the houses are snapped up in a matter of weeks.
It was very fascinating to see, my In-laws neighbor put his house on the market for 650k early 2016. He had a few very unsuccessful viewings, dropped the price to 595k. House sold in early 2017 for 620k. I have no clue how or what happened there. But every house that comes up for sale here is gone in a matter of weeks. Same thing goes for areas like Fairview, Marino and Whitehall.

Stuyvesant_1

To Fuaranach I have notice also this trend but particular where new build development in adjacent to area. The area with very little development like Clontarf as example so prices are increasing at fast pace because the supply in area is limited. Other part of Dublin with new house and apartment development is prices are certainly more stable.

jamesthepeach

I just accepted an offer on a 1 bed apparent in North Dublin. 50% more than I could have got for it only a year ago. Apartment are moving again now. Nobody wanted them last year.
No way could I refuse the offer I got, as renting it out is just a mugs game now.
Also very few on the market now too. All getting snapped up.

spaceHopper

wordofwarning wrote: »

FYI the Central Bank is independent. The Government has no say on what they do. This 'notion' that the Government is telling them what to do is utter waffle and completely unfounded. The Central Bank does what is best for the country and not what FG tells them to do...

A subsidy of €10k for FTB only reduces the cost of new builds by 10k.

That is not true, on paper they are independent, in practice they got pressured into changing the rules.

Bob24

spaceHopper wrote: »

That is not true, on paper they are independent, in practice they got pressured into changing the rules.

Not to mention the fact that the government has been - let's say - creative in finding ways work around the rules on top of their pressure to amend them. Giving a tax credit after the fact which can be counted towards a deposit before the purchase to artificial inflate people's savings (and therefore the amount they can borrow) is clearly aimed at weakening the effect of banking regulations.

Lumen

Bob24 wrote: »

Not to mention the fact that the government has been - let's say - creative in finding ways work around the rules on top of their pressure to amend them. Giving a tax credit after the fact which can be counted towards a deposit before the purchase to artificial inflate people's savings (and therefore the amount they can borrow) is clearly aimed at weakening the effect of banking regulations.

The purpose of LTV limits (which are easier to meet with the tax credits) is not to put a brake on what people can borrow, it is to limit default risk in the loan books of the banks, because high LTVs are correlated with defaults.

Bob24

Lumen wrote: »

The purpose of LTV limits (which are easier to meet with the tax credits) is not to put a brake on what people can borrow, it is to limit default risk in the loan books of the banks, because high LTVs are correlated with defaults.

Yet the sole purpose of the tax credit is to artificially inflate people's savings to weaken the effect of banking regulations and allow people to borrow more.

Lumen

Bob24 wrote: »

Yet the sole purpose of the tax credit is to artificially inflate people's savings to weaken the effect of banking regulations and allow people to borrow more.

It weakens a side-effect, not the intent.

noodler

spaceHopper wrote: »

That is not true, on paper they are independent, in practice they got pressured into changing the rules.

Impossible to prove.

poteen

jamesthepeach wrote: »

I just accepted an offer on a 1 bed apparent in North Dublin. 50% more than I could have got for it only a year ago. Apartment are moving again now. Nobody wanted them last year.
No way could I refuse the offer I got, as renting it out is just a mugs game now.
Also very few on the market now too. All getting snapped up.

So will you reinvest back into the market now with the sale profits or diverse?

jamesthepeach

poteen wrote: »

So will you reinvest back into the market now with the sale profits or diverse?

I'm retiring to Spain tbh.
I was going to use my rentals here as income but that's not really viable now. I will source other more stable, interference and hassle free sources of income to invest in

wordofwarning

spaceHopper wrote: »

That is not true, on paper they are independent, in practice they got pressured into changing the rules.

Source?

Browney7

jamesthepeach wrote: »

I'm retiring to Spain tbh.
I was going to use my rentals here as income but that's not really viable now. I will source other more stable, interference and hassle free sources of income to invest in

If you find them let us know! All asset classes look to have pretty lofty valuations

jamesthepeach

Browney7 wrote: »

If you find them let us know! All asset classes look to have pretty lofty valuations

I will do. But risk is a huge factor for me now, while I try out this early retirement lark.
And renting out property is extremely risky now, so I'm out.
If.i get bored of retirement my appetite for risk may increase if I go back to work.

Baby01032012

@jamesthepeach...if your looking for a spacious 2 bedroom apartment in a good location near the beach on the costa del sol let me know

spaceHopper

noodler wrote: »

Impossible to prove.

Read Fintan O'Tools book Ship of Fools, it documents the last crash and how the governments of the day plaid a role in it and how they where able it control the Central Bank

SunSeeker101

Something has changed in the property market all right. Surprised to read this this morning. http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/how-30pc-of-houses-for-sale-cant-find-buyers-despite-crisis-35797321.html

jamesthepeach

SunSeeker101 wrote: »

Something has changed in the property market all right. Surprised to read this this morning. http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/how-30pc-of-houses-for-sale-cant-find-buyers-despite-crisis-35797321.html

Is it just me or is that article using a lot of words to tell you nothing?

SunSeeker101

Well, what I took from it is, if you are serious about selling your house, price it accordingly. I think even estate agents have cottoned on that we don't have an endless supply of €500k+ buyers and vendors need to adjust their expectations. I am seeing a lot of properties come back on the market that were previously sale agreed or taken off the market. The higher prices go, the fewer buyers there are which will eventually leave stock lying around for months on end.

jamesthepeach

SunSeeker101 wrote: »

Well, what I took from it is, if you are serious about selling your house, price it accordingly. I think even estate agents have cottoned on that we don't have an endless supply of €500k+ buyers and vendors need to adjust their expectations. I am seeing a lot of properties come back on the market that were previously sale agreed or taken off the market. The higher prices go, the fewer buyers there are which will eventually leave stock lying around for months on end.

That's a lot from very little unspecific information though.

Daft property price report coming out this week too.

SunSeeker101

jamesthepeach wrote: »

Daft property price report coming out this week too.

Asking prices tell you nothing

Lumen

SunSeeker101 wrote: »

Well, what I took from it is, if you are serious about selling your house, price it accordingly. I think even estate agents have cottoned on that we don't have an endless supply of €500k+ buyers and vendors need to adjust their expectations. I am seeing a lot of properties come back on the market that were previously sale agreed or taken off the market. The higher prices go, the fewer buyers there are which will eventually leave stock lying around for months on end.

That article is just a big soup of contextless numbers and random opinions, it's like a Rorschach test, you'll see whatever you want to see.

Estate agents will always advocate for vendors being "realistic", because that allows the agent to sell the property and get paid.

Anyway, three months isn't really that long to sell a property. If people are downsizing or negotiating with lenders they're not in that much of a rush so may as well stick it up for a high price and see what the interest is like.

Bob24

jamesthepeach wrote: »

Is it just me or is that article using a lot of words to tell you nothing?

Yes basically what it is saying is just that a number of seller expecting higher than marker price don't see any movement on their properties (possibly many of these are just testing the market and are in no rush to sell).

There's one piece of logic I don't get though at he end: "If the first-time buyers grant encourages more to build properties, the price of housing will come down"

I get that one idea of the grant is to encourage builders to increase supply, but surely at the same time if you give free cash and increase the total amount of buyers there is also upwards pressure on prices (and - understandingly - even if prices were to go down builders would then stop building as they did in the past few years, waiting for the situation to pick-up from their perspective).

jamesthepeach

SunSeeker101 wrote: »

Asking prices tell you nothing

At least it will be a more solid base that what's in that article

jamesthepeach

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes basically what it is saying is just that a number of seller expecting higher than marker price don't see any movement on their properties (possibly many of these are just testing the market and are in no rush to sell).

There's one piece of logic I don't get though at he end: "If the first-time buyers grant encourages more to build properties, the price of housing will come down"

I get that one idea of the grant is to encourage builders to increase supply, but surely at the same time if you give free cash and increase the total amount of buyers there is also upwards pressure on prices (and - understandingly - even if prices were to go down builders would then stop building as they did in the past few years, waiting for the situation to pick-up from their perspective).

Didn't you know.
The grants are to get people off the dole figures. Not to get people into houses

That's just the cover story.

SunSeeker101

Bob24 wrote: »

There's one piece of logic I don't get though at he end: "If the first-time buyers grant encourages more to build properties, the price of housing will come down".

I thought it meant the price of second hand housing will come down. If first-time buyers are chasing only new build properties, the vendors of second hand houses will have fewer buyers wanting to purchase their houses.

PMBC

Surely 5% is a good yield with interest rates for those amounts being neglibly small and inflation at less than 2%?
What sort of yield do people expect on property p/a - 10%?
I'm just curious.

Lumen

Bob24 wrote: »

There's one piece of logic I don't get though at he end: "If the first-time buyers grant encourages more to build properties, the price of housing will come down"

There's a broader piece of logic malfunction in commentary about Irish property, and that's the idea that demand is inelastic, that if you create enough supply (of new stock) the housing will become reasonably priced.

It doesn't hold for roads (people just use their cars more) so I don't see why it should hold for urban housing. Think of all the people that would choose to live in Dublin if it were cheaper (both in Ireland and abroad). Think of all the twenty- and thirty- somethings living with their parents who would move out.

That's not to say the current low level of construction is desirable.

browne_rob5

jamesthepeach wrote: »

I just accepted an offer on a 1 bed apparent in North Dublin. 50% more than I could have got for it only a year ago. Apartment are moving again now. Nobody wanted them last year.
No way could I refuse the offer I got, as renting it out is just a mugs game now.
Also very few on the market now too. All getting snapped up.

Did you still to an investor or an owner occupier?

jamesthepeach

browne_rob5 wrote: »

Did you still to an investor or an owner occupier?

The Early says he was a guy living with his parents in Carlow, sick of the commute to Dublin who was ready to do the deal straight away.
But I suppose if they had a mind to they could become an investor at any time.
I don't care as long as I get the money

There were others interested too, but his bid was high and he was ready to go right away.

SunSeeker101

jamesthepeach wrote: »

There were others interested too, but his bid was high and he was ready to go right away.

Selling to the greater fools, must surely be at end game now.

Samuel T. Cogley

SCD was the first to hit a bubble and did so very quickly. I think it's peaked out there for secondhand property. Agree with some of the sentiments above that new properties, as they appear will still sell well. I I also think we've probably finished exemption season have we? And it's rocking around to holiday time for both purchasers/buyers and lawyers.

We'll continue to see house prices on an upward trend until supply is sorted just moving North.

LirW

I also think we've probably finished exemption season have we?

I think Exemption season was over in March with every last cent granted by then.

Also have to disagree strongly with this article, especially rural Ireland. It's just numbers thrown around, it says nothing about one of the most important factors: location. Okay there were 60something 3bed Semi-Ds in Dublin, a few remain unsold. But where? I've viewed houses in very undesirable parts of town and the houses are sitting on the market forever. That says seriously F all about the situation in Dublin.

Same in rural parts of the neighboring counties of Dublin. Houses remain on the market for years, because they are unrealistically priced, even with drops of around 50k in the asking.

When selling even a year can be pretty short. From first viewing to Sale agreed can take a few weeks, what if it falls through, what if it doesn't get the attention the EA expected, price correction, holiday season etc. and a year is already gone. Our neighbor had his house on the market for over a year, dropped the asking almost 60k and got a bit under his original asking in the end. Went sale agreed in January and is handing the keys over next week. Purchasing is usually a slow process, people seem to forget this.

jamesthepeach

jamesthepeach wrote: »

I'm retiring to Spain tbh.
I was going to use my rentals here as income but that's not really viable now. I will source other more stable, interference and hassle free sources of income to invest in

Browney7 wrote: »

If you find them let us know! All asset classes look to have pretty lofty valuations

Asset classes generally look loftily priced unless in a crash. Given the strength of the € against the £ I'd consider the following decent options to invest in Easyjet, Vodafone, Kingfisher, Landsec & Next. If my money was in € currently I wouldn't purchase any US shares.

Dividend paying shares aren't bad when you are retired if you aren't being taxed at the higher rate or at all IMO

PMBC wrote: »

Surely 5% is a good yield with interest rates for those amounts being neglibly small and inflation at less than 2%?
What sort of yield do people expect on property p/a - 10%?
I'm just curious.

Gross rental income x 15 = purchase price; that was the rule of thumb years back........... approx 6.7%

I wish I had adhered to it when I purchased my first property, I reckon it rings true more often than not.

Possibly but if you currently have € even accepting that might as a definite the UK stuff is a good buy IMO compared to the US stuff.

I'd also strongly expect the £ to rally sometime over the next decade or so

Feckofff

Property is only attractive because you can borrow money against it.

Mickiemcfist

Feckofff wrote: »

Property is only attractive because you can borrow money against it.

Technically true, although CFD's & Spread betting are leveraged stock purchases so loans in effect

6541

Somewhat related I think, an old developer guy I know stopped his daughter buying her first house in Dublin. He states that we are in bubble territory and housing is overvalued with a correction coming. I can't see it, this guy is an old hand in the game and he is adamant.

TimeToShine

6541 wrote: »

Somewhat related I think, an old developer guy I know stopped his daughter buying her first house in Dublin. He states that we are in bubble territory and housing is overvalued with a correction coming. I can't see it, this guy is an old hand in the game and he is adamant.

I don't think anyone denies that we're in a bubble. But if you are buying a home to live in for life then it really doesn't make that much of a difference, the sooner the better. If you're having notions about investments then definitely don't bother.

Bob24

6541 wrote: »

Somewhat related I think, an old developer guy I know stopped his daughter buying her first house in Dublin. He states that we are in bubble territory and housing is overvalued with a correction coming. I can't see it, this guy is an old hand in the game and he is adamant.

Dublin City or the suburbs? Does he see it as imminent?

And did he give any explanation for his reasoning?

I think a correction will come eventually, but I have to say in the short term I can't see it either.

Earl _of _Sandwich

6541 wrote: »

Somewhat related I think, an old developer guy I know stopped his daughter buying her first house in Dublin. He states that we are in bubble territory and housing is overvalued with a correction coming. I can't see it, this guy is an old hand in the game and he is adamant.

I would not be taking property market advice from an old developer.
Few survived for a reason.

Bob24

TimeToShine wrote: »

But if you are buying a home to live in for life then it really doesn't make that much of a difference

A lot of people say that, but it only half makes sense to me.

I get that if you're going to live there for decades as long as you can afford the mortgage and think the place is good enough you'll be grand even if there is a crash.

BUT I wouldn't agree it doesn't make much of a difference for you: if you can buy the same property at a significantly lower price a few years down the road, it means much lower mortgage repayments for those few decades which will increase your disposable income and positively improve your quality of life for a long enough period (or let you use that extra money for investments).

TimeToShine

Bob24 wrote: »

A lot of people say that, but it only half makes sense to me.

I get that if you're going to live there for decades as long as you can afford the mortgage and think the place is good enough you'll be grand even if there is a crash.

BUT I wouldn't agree it doesn't make much of a difference for you: if you can buy the same property at a significantly lower price a few years down the road, it means much lower mortgage repayments for those few decades which will increase your disposable income and positively improve your quality of life for a long enough period (or let you use that extra money for investments).

It would have to be significantly cheaper to offset the few years worth of money sunk into a rental property (upwards of 50k) plus the uncertainty that comes with renting.

Not saying it isn't viable but the risk/reward value isn't there for families who value stability above all else. I would like to note though that this doesn't apply to as many families as you would think. Any couples with aspirations to move abroad or further their careers elsewhere - or who even think they might end up in another country - should consider renting. This "buying makes sense regardless" logic would apply mainly to homebirds who love Ireland, love Dublin (or whatever city/town they live in), and have no intention whatsoever of leaving aside from the odd holiday.

6541

Bob24 wrote: »

Dublin City or the suburbs? Does he see it as imminent?

And did he give any explanation for his reasoning?

I think a correction will come eventually, but I have to say in the short term I can't see it either.

To be honest he is a smug so and so. He made his money and got out. He has loads of rental properties in Dublin and has no problem putting rent up etc. Not the nicest of chaps. Either way I know him and know him well. His take is that Dublin is inflated, building is coming on stream, keep well away from property.

Browney7

6541 wrote: »

Somewhat related I think, an old developer guy I know stopped his daughter buying her first house in Dublin. He states that we are in bubble territory and housing is overvalued with a correction coming. I can't see it, this guy is an old hand in the game and he is adamant.

If she was living at home and saving at least what a rent payment would be there could be some merit in this. If she's currently renting and plans on living in Ireland for the long term and is in a position to buy now and the right property is available then why not?

6541

Browney7 wrote: »

If she was living at home and saving at least what a rent payment would be there could be some merit in this. If she's currently renting and plans on living in Ireland for the long term and is in a position to buy now and the right property is available then why not?

I think she was looking to buy an investment property to get in on the whole screw everyone for rent thing. I read into it that his thinking is that ship has sailed and the rental yield will not be as great in the future.

I am listening intently as I would love to purchase myself but I also feel that I have missed the boat and now is the time to hold out. At the moment I can hold out as I have the free use of a house for now.

I would love someone to come on here and actually tell it like it is. Say in five years its gonna be this or that, I guess that is wishing for too much.