Saturday June 3rd * Epsom Derby Day *

BumperD

Getting this opened in time. Now time to study the card.

BumperD

Have backed Gabrial tomorrow ew, gets weight from sovereign debt, versatile ground wise and an inform dettori in the saddle. Risk in that he has never won at this level before but it's a small field without great dept. going to follow the fav Crackman in the main event. Gl tomorrow

Slattsy

On Cliffs of Moher at 25s

How much rain fell at Epsom today?

diomed

I have too much on Permian, and I'm not confident.
Tomorrow I'll go onto the Tote through Betfair and do a few Trifectas on the Derby.

akelly02

Steel prince a cert at navan tomorrow

4068ac1elhodqr

diomed wrote: »

I have too much on Permian, and I'm not confident.

I'd be slightly more confident, 5pl with Sky anyway.



Would be nice to see 1,000/1 Diore Lia win, but guessing that ain't gonna happen.

Gringo180

Glencadam Glory. 40/1. Thank me tomorrow

diomed

Slattsy wrote: »

On Cliffs of Moher at 25s
How much rain fell at Epsom today?

"Weather-wise, it didn't seem to measure as a lot of rain, however dramatic it all seemed. It barely registered a millimetre on our weather station. There was clearly heavier stuff in parts but it wasn't any great volume of rain."
clerk of the course Andrew Cooper

Slattsy

Seemed to cut up quite a bit, lot more than a mm.

He's often called it wrong before.

diomed

"There can have been few wetter Oaks but also none faster, as Enable stopped the clock in a race record time"

Today's Oaks time was 2:34.13.
The previous best at Epsom was Intrepidity in 1993 with 2:34.19.
There was also a 2:34.21; 2.34.22; 2.34.33 in earlier years.

I'm making a wild guess that there was a favourable wind somewhere.

dk6dk6

Gringo180 wrote: »

Glencadam Glory. 40/1. Thank me tomorrow

What makes you think he can overturn the form with Best Solution who is also better off at the weights?

You thinking if he breaks on terms it will make all the difference?

Gringo180

dk6dk6 wrote: »

What makes you think he can overturn the form with Best Solution who is also better off at the weights?

You thinking if he breaks on terms it will make all the difference?

He was a good 12/15 lengths behind him 6f from home, he only hit top gear in the last half furlong and I think Gosden will have him spot on for tomorrow. I cant see him out of the places most firms are paying out on first 4 home.

Gringo180

He also beat Tartini 3 lengths at Lingfield and 2moros fav Cracksman beat him around 4 lengths in the Epsom Derby trial. Its a shocking Derby so it wont take a proper Group 1 animal to win it.

Slattsy

How bad was Harzands win with USAR lol

dk6dk6

Gringo180 wrote: »

He also beat Tartini 3 lengths at Lingfield and 2moros fav Cracksman beat him around 4 lengths in the Epsom Derby trial. Its a shocking Derby so it wont take a proper Group 1 animal to win it.

Agreed it one of the worst Derbys in memory, I'm also thinking of backing a horse that needs to overturn some form.
But I honestly don't think we saw the best of Rekindling in the Dante and I can see him running a big race stepping up in trip on better ground.

Gringo180

Slattsy wrote: »

How bad was Harzands win with USAR lol

Even his stable mate had to let him win in his Derby trial at Chester. Seamie Heffernan stopped riding a good half furlong out and that hound only just about got up by a nose :pac:

Gringo180

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Agreed it one of the worst Derbys in memory, I'm also thinking of backing a horse that needs to overturn some form.
But I honestly don't think we saw the best of Rekindling in the Dante and I can see him running a big race stepping up in trip on better ground.

Rekindling was another one I liked at a big price but sided with Gosdens horse as I like his sire and I think hes a horse with massive scope. He just needs to start a bit better tomorrow. He will be running on best at the end imo.

BorneTobyWilde

Khalidi, Benbatl ,and Glencadam Glory for me

allthedoyles

GG tips are going for Eminent and he's 15/2 now .

Chancer3001

why is gabrial the biggest outsider in the whole race!?

longshotvalue

Chancer3001 wrote: »

why is gabrial the biggest outsider in the whole race!?

I've no idea he has a great chance .

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

"There can have been few wetter Oaks but also none faster, as Enable stopped the clock in a race record time"

Today's Oaks time was 2:34.13.
The previous best at Epsom was Intrepidity in 1993 with 2:34.19.
There was also a 2:34.21; 2.34.22; 2.34.33 in earlier years.

I'm making a wild guess that there was a favourable wind somewhere.

Diomed I think on the Derby thread you were saying that Cracksman ran around 33 seconds for the last 3 furlongs against Permian in the Epsom Trial.

Would that not be a very decent speed at the end of a race for an inexperienced horse?

WickIow Brave

I've decided on Benbatl (25/1) e/w, Douglas Macarthur (25/1) e/w and The Anvil (100/1) e/w. 4 places.

Benbatl - narrow losses to Eminent and Permian. First time tongue tie and first time hood. Still quite unexposed and open to improving past the much raced Permian.

Douglas Macarthur - has the pedigree. Beaten Capri twice. Beaten by Rekindling but I would expect him to overturn the form as JPOB usually has his ready first time out whereas D Mac will continue to improve. Rekindling also didn't really have his ground in the Dante and I don't think he got the best ride either so the Ballysax/Derrinstown form perhaps isn't that bad. I expect D Mac to make the running or be up there but I don't think Colm O'Donoghue is going to go a stupid pace and APOB nth strings have good records of placing at big prices in the Derby.

The Anvil - again, got the pedigree. Wasn't beaten far by Venice Beach in Chester. Obviously the jockey isn't ideal but a massive price. Horse won't be burdened with making the pace like he was in Chester and Ana will just be expected to drop it in and try pick up the pieces.

Francie Barrett

I would laugh a lot if a Frankel won (sorry guys).

My small bet is 16/1 e/w on Venice Beach.

BumperD

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I would laugh a lot if a Frankel won (sorry guys).
.

Sting60's mansion in the riviera would be up for sale Monday morning

Francie Barrett

5:55 Hexham - The oldtimer See Double You makes an appearnce overseas... fcuk that, nevermind! As much as I love See Double You, and as often as I have followed it, I think Hellorboston off a career low mark yet at similar odds is a much better shout for this race. 14/1 much beter shout for this race, but it'd want to start showing something beyond its early bumper runs.

Francie Barrett

BumperD wrote: »

Sting60's mansion in the riviera would be up for sale Monday morning

This is a very mediocre year for the Derby. Aidan O'Brien has thrown plenty of darts at this one, yet they've all failed to even get near the mark. I feel that he is happy enough to have a 1 miler (Churchill) for the season that connections can put out to stud. I certainly would not put a penny on Cracksman considering its breeding, but in a bad year for the Derby, I would definitely not be laying, or even place laying it.

diomed

tryfix wrote: »

Diomed I think on the Derby thread you were saying that Cracksman ran around 33 seconds for the last 3 furlongs against Permian in the Epsom Trial.
Would that not be a very decent speed at the end of a race for an inexperienced horse?

If he produces that at the end of the Derby he wins.

Differences
That race was 10f, the Derby is 12f, and the extra 2f are steeply uphill.
That race was 5.73 over standard. Today's Oaks was 0.37 below standard.

The Derby will be about 30 lengths faster, over longer, over a stiffer track, with 19 runners instead of 8 runners.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

If he produces that at the end of the Derby he wins.

Differences
That race was 10f, the Derby is 12f, and the extra 2f are steeply uphill.
That race was 5.73 over standard. Today's Oaks was 0.37 below standard.

The Derby will be about 30 lengths faster, over longer, over a stiffer track, with 19 runners instead of 8 runners.

True, but if he stays then he's got the turn of foot to win the race and Gosden has been adamant that he will stay. Against that most Frankels haven't been able to keep on improving very much and is Gosden really going to do the Oaks-Derby double?

The biggest worry for me about him would be that he'd find it hard to stay far enough forward in the race to use his turn of foot to win it.

brilou23

Skybet doing 1/5 odds first 5 home.

Ben Gadot

Permian and Khalidi ew and rfc

Peintre Celebre

Bet of the day kiss the stars at navan 25:1

Rekop dog

Derby is the worst race for long odds pokes. Always won by one of the market principals. Cracksman for me.

Peintre Celebre

Rekop dog wrote: »

Derby is the worst race for long odds pokes. Always won by one of the market principals. Cracksman for me.

Group 1s are rarely won by massive priced horses maybe bar two year olds it's not exclusive to the Derby.

Rekop dog

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Group 1s are rarely won by massive priced horses maybe bar two year olds it's not exclusive to the Derby.

But even as group 1's go the Derby is standout in that regard. 7/1 biggest priced winner since 2000. The fillies classics tend to throw up fairly regular big price winners by comparison.

PM me nudes

Gone for Wings of Eagles, Douglas McArthur and Permian all e/w 5 places at Skybet

chinguetti

Rekindling e/w

longshotvalue

Senewalk at 13/8 in a total donkey race in Tramore at 8:00 where the ratings of the horses next in the betting are around the 100 -108 mark.

Back in trip on good ground

akelly02

Lucy verasami is such a ride.

kksaints

Venice Beach each-way looks tempting. Douglas MacArthur would be more appealing if I didn't think he will be the pacemaker.

sting60

Have put up Venice Beach @20/1 as I feel he is absolutely guaranteed to stay but jockey arrangements suggest he's down the order at Ballydoyle.If a Frankel wins ( which I very much doubt)this shocking Derby the Racing Post will wet themselves and rate him a brilliant sire and no doubt give him one of their unbelievable stupid ratings.Time to Study 2/1 Muss 3.25.This is a strong fancy of mine for a staying race at Goodwood and should win this in a canter(MAX bet).Chocolat Noir Navan 3pm and Dubai Classic Donny 2.30 are others I've been keeping a close eye on.

WickIow Brave

I think Venice Beach is definitely the second string. Ballydoyle pecking orders can be be confusing with jockey bookings but I think Aidan has put the young lad on the second string. The one thing that put me off Venice Beach is he hasn't got an entry in the Irish Champion Stakes and is entered in the the Irish St Leger and even the Curragh Cup. Even Taj Mahal has an entry in the Irish Champion.

Harry Angstrom

Laugh Aloud to boost the Derby funds in the next.

BumperD

Tisbutadream looks overpriced at 20/1 in the next. Won C2lto, 3yr old improver getting plenty of weight (12lbs) under the conditions against horses with the same rating.

mailburner

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Laugh Aloud to boost the Derby funds in the next.

was coming here to post same :pac:

I said

Verona opera 315 Hexham

mailburner

if only all odds on shots won like that this game would be easy :P

Harry Angstrom

mailburner wrote: »

was coming here to post same :pac:

Nicely done.

4068ac1elhodqr

Small Trebles (e/w from Five).

S’Debt @6 2places
Excessable @9 6places
Permian @9 5places
Murgan @12 4places [ N/R ]
+ (Golf) Wang @21 4places

BorneTobyWilde

Sea the Lion in 3.00
I like it EW at 14-1
Ran a good race last time out. Should improve for that, it was first run since 2014.

Still at post. Not even loaded yet.

BorneTobyWilde

Only in Ireland would a 3.00 race go off at 3.15, only 2 loaded yet.