Giro Stage 20 Pordenone – Asiago, 190 km

greenspurs

A very long stage with long climbs.
After the first half across the hilly region around Treviso famous for its Prosecco vineyards, the route reaches Feltre where (in Caupo) it climbs up Monte Grappa on its north side.
It is a climb measuring 24km in length with long sections at 7-8 percent gradients alternating with short apparently flat ground stretches or descents.
A very long descent heading to Romano d’Ezzelino is followed by 10km on a flat section leading to the 14km climb up to Foza at a gradient of 7.1 percent.
The stage route runs over the final wavy 10 km to the finish in Asiago.

Inquitus

So what do we think the TT gaps are likely to be on Sunday? How much would Tom put into Quintana over 30km of specialist TT?

Lusk_Doyle

He put 3'08" into Quintana on last years stage 13 tt in the tour. 37kms.

Inquitus

Latest take by the bookies has Tom favourite for the first time, surprisingly enough, after his weakest day. I would have had him as favourite before Dumpgate when he had minutes in the bank.

Tom Dumoulin 6/5
Nairo Quintana 13/8
Vincenzo Nibali 13/2
Thibaut Pinot 13/2
Ilnur Zakarin 28
Domenico Pozzovivo 66

geotrig

Inquitus wrote: »

Latest take by the bookies has Tom favourite for the first time, surprisingly enough, after his weakest day. I would have had him as favourite before Dumpgate when he had minutes in the bank.

Tom Dumoulin 6/5
Nairo Quintana 13/8
Vincenzo Nibali 13/2
Thibaut Pinot 13/2
Ilnur Zakarin 28
Domenico Pozzovivo 66

Makes sense to me ,I thought I saw or read somewhere that quintana has been "well" either.
Although I've heard it on the tour last year when he had a bad day.

Kaisr Sose

Hope TD does it. Pinot looks good as an e/w for podium.

pelevin

I wouldn't like to have been setting odds for the overall after today. Is Dumoulin after one bad day? Does it mean there could well be another bad one to come? It's the first time since Blockhaus where he's looked imo not the justified obvious favourite as it's the first time we've seen anything but a display of strength & superiority. I'd find it all guesswork & would look on those odds on Nibali & Zakarin pretty attractive. Don't expect Zakarin to win but would put his odds better than 28/1 for a guy so close & who I think has done a very good tt or two in his career.

Everyone is tired but given Quintana's last TT on what would have been fresher legs I can't see him in the running on sunday unless he gains more minutes tomorrow.

I think most of us would love to see Tom take this, for me personally it would be a truly "honest" victory in the sense that he did most of the work himself given he didn't have a team that could help him like the other GC guys.

What ever happens it's been a great GT , even with the slow week one that still had some great moments. That seems like an age ago now since the opening stages on the islands.

Inquitus

28km to the bottom of Monte Grappa, that should be where the game is well and truly on, if Tom can get over that in contact with all the main GC favourites then he only has to worry about limiting his losses on the last climb. Conventional wisdom says he's good for 1.5-2 mins at least on Quintana in tomorrows specialist TT, and he is currently listed as the 6/5 Favourite to take the Maglia Rosa in Milan tomorrow. Today is the last roll of the dice for Nibali, Quintana and Pinot, Pinot could be the dark horse as he is the best of the TT'ers in GC contention and should he finish on the same time as Quintana and Nibali he could certainly be a threat to their podium places in tomorrow's Monza start stage.

MPFGLB

As Kanstantsin Siutsou said .. mountain doms are not necessary as you can follow wheels (unless you have to close a gap) ..

To all the love for Tom Dumoulin and his working alone.....I say Mollema, Pozzo, SK, Zakarin, etc...all working alone on most climbs

And even Nibali and Pinot ...its mostly man o man as most down to one man (themselves) at the same time on climbs

So I say no one 'deserves' to win ....the best will win

Most f the comms have over exaggerated the 'weak' team thing but say nothing for other GC contenders

Lusk_Doyle

TD not going anywhere...

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/dumoulin-said-ready-to-extend-with-sunweb-through-2021/#disqus_thread

...one can only hope that they build a decent roster of doms around him. It would remind you of Contador against everyone else at the moment.

Inquitus

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

TD not going anywhere...

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/dumoulin-said-ready-to-extend-with-sunweb-through-2021/#disqus_thread

...one can only hope that they build a decent roster of doms around him. It would remind you of Contador against everyone else at the moment.

They really need to strengthen the team around him though, imagine Tom with this Giro team against Froome and the Sky train at the Tour, he wouldn't stand a chance.

retalivity

Kruijswijk dropped out overnight from 10th, 'stomach problems'

Inquitus

Here we go, Monta Grappa! Bring it on

Lusk_Doyle

Inquitus wrote: »

They really need to strengthen the team around him though, imagine Tom with this Giro team against Froome and the Sky train at the Tour, he wouldn't stand a chance.

Exactly.

TheBlaaMan

retalivity wrote: »

Kruijswijk dropped out overnight from 10th, 'stomach problems'

i wonder if Lotto NL Jumbo will aid Dumoulin now that their leader has abandoned.....? A few extra doms - to pull in the valley at least - wouldn't go amiss...

Seems to be more ads than usual today :mad:

Inquitus

Deleted User wrote: »

Seems to be more ads than usual today :mad:

They try and get the bulk of them out of the way early, makes for some very disjointed coverage when they first go to live pictures.

MPFGLB

I think Sunweb are still trying to understand (as is TD) what he can do in a GT


But the issue is where to get the mountain doms...SKY and Movistar have the most and best

And now Bahrain is looking of more...even if you have the money MTN doms are hard to find

Ten Dam and Kelderman are no slouches

You need a rider that is prepared to give up their own GC ambitions and that is not so easy to find and there are 18 teams that need a leader

Inquitus

MPFGLB wrote: »

I think Sunweb are still trying to understand (as is TD) what he can do in a GT


But the issue is where to get the mountain doms...SKY and Movistar have the most and best

And now Bahrain is looking of more...even if you have the money MTN doms are hard to find

Ten Dam and Kelderman are no slouches

You need a rider that is prepared to give up their own GC ambitions and that is not so easy to find and there are 18 teams that need a leader

True, if you pay enough though then there are plenty of lads willing to do it and park their GC ambitions. Diegnan and Roche are on the big bucks to be Superdoms. As you say though, most of these are happy where they are. The Kelderman crash was a huge blow to Tom and Sunweb, no doubt about that.

Somedude9

Time for Tejay to become a super-domestique, that is unless he can find some team foolish enough to give him a GC berth.

Lusk_Doyle

Somedude9 wrote: »

Time for Tejay to become a super-domestique, that is unless he can find some team foolish enough to give him a GC berth.

Eh, BMC?

Somedude9

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

Eh, BMC?

Heh, touché

Game on! Zakarin aiming big

Inquitus

Tom dodged a bit of a bullet there, seemed he was close to cracking....

MPFGLB

Somedude9 wrote: »

Time for Tejay to become a super-domestique, that is unless he can find some team foolish enough to give him a GC berth.

TJ plans ot go to the Vuelta as GC leader (according to himself) :)

Inquitus

MPFGLB wrote: »

TJ plans ot go to the Vuelta as GC leader (according to himself) :)

A GT stage win was all he needed to re-kindle the GT contender delusions!

thecretinhop

Did I just see some whack job with a stuffed fox chasing them there?!

Lusk_Doyle

thecretinhop wrote: »

Did I just see some whack job with a stuffed fox chasing them there?!

That was the KOM prize!

MPFGLB

thecretinhop wrote: »

Did I just see some whack job with a stuffed fox chasing them there?!

NOo

Lusk_Doyle

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

That was the KOM prize!

"Please! Itsa yours! You won it. Take it!"

Lusk_Doyle

Nibbles getting assistance from the movistar car!

Lusk_Doyle

Inquitus wrote: »

A GT stage win was all he needed to re-kindle the GT contender delusions!

I only finished an hour down. Imagine if I didn't have those 7 bad days.

Itziger

Here we go!!!

retalivity

Td just managing his own effort...

dahat

Anyone else just feel let down by Quintana? Never seems to sieze the chance to drive on on any race I have seen him.

Inquitus

Well here we go, the climb that will likely decide the Giro, one way or the other! First attacks come with 8km of climbing to go, but shut down, now Zakharin goes, with 15km of flat at the top you need to get away in a group of 4 or so to make it pay, on your own won't do.

dahat

And there he goes...

robyntmorton

Nibbles and Quintana go up the road. Pinot and Dumoulin losing ground, but have doms with them. Is this the race winning move?

Inquitus

robyntmorton wrote: »

Nibbles and Quintana go up the road. Pinot and Dumoulin losing ground, but have doms with them. Is this the race winning move?

We'll have to see the 15km of flat at the top complicates things.

robyntmorton

Inquitus wrote: »

We'll have to see the 15km of flat at the top complicates things.

It's difficult to call. The Dumoulin group are still gaining on the lost time... just. The flat finish may help him.

Inquitus

Tom's back, played it cool, owes Bob Jungles a pint or two.

robyntmorton

Pinot/Nibbles/Nairo try again, but you have to think they are leaving it too late to make a killer blow?

Think cycling is boring? This drama is fantastic!

Inquitus

robyntmorton wrote: »

Pinot/Nibbles/Nairo try again, but you have to think they are leaving it too late to make a killer blow?

Think cycling is boring? This drama is fantastic!

Indeed by far the closest GT in a long time, no idea who will win at this point, though it does seem to favour Tom, could be in danger if Nibali, Quintana and Pinot make the junction.

Itziger

TD has big Bob Jungels for the rolling last kms. Should see him home.

4Leinster

Think it's fair to say nobody knows how this is going to turn out. TD does look to be comfortable though.

robyntmorton

Ah the Maglia Rosa playing games up the front. TD group eating up time!

retalivity

Really stupid from the front 5...zakarin hanging back and not working

Rock Lesnar

TD looks flucked, the last little kick up might be tough considering yesterday and today's efforts

robyntmorton

The best TD group can hope for is to make contact, and have a random cyclist take as many bonus seconds as possible. Bonus seconds not going to Quintana etc. will be a perfect result.

Rock Lesnar

What an effort by jungels, come on TD

retalivity

Pinot to take it in a sprint..