Fine Gael Leadership: Contest or Coronation?

Beechwoodspark

wordofwarning wrote: »

I agree. He can barely go 10 seconds without you thinking is he lost?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_UvPK8xYyA

Leo is a good public speaker. He can get his point across. He gets it across maybe too curtly. But at the end of the day, he is a Dubliner. Dubliners aren't going to waffle on for 10 mins when you can say it in 2 mins

Eh...the quintessential Dubliner, Bertie, was the all time great waffler lol

blanch152

mattser wrote: »

Get on 11/2 as fast as you can. Coveney is going to grow impress in the next 16 days. Bookies don't get it wrong too often, but that's a ridiculous price in a two horse race that's just beginning.

Is it only beginning or is it over already?


https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2017/0519/876356-fine-gael-leadership-campaign/

Varadkar has established a substantial lead while not overwhelming, it is of a size that will encourage the undecided to back the winner, especially among councillors looking for promotion.

seamus

I'm not sure what's been going on behind the scenes, but certainly from the outside it seems like Leo has been taking part in this contest for six months, while Coveney has been sitting back and waiting for Enda to retire before making a move.

So Varadkar's early lead could just be down to him having done the legwork to get more firm supporters early on, and it doesn't mean that he's going to take two-thirds of the whole party.

AnGaelach

bk wrote: »

You aren't wrong about any of that and it is also why FG badly needs him as leader!

FG really need to appeal to the younger generation of urban more socially liberal people of Ireland.

FG staying a rural party will end up wiping the party out. Ireland's demographics are quickly shifting to urban areas. Ireland is now undergoing the urbanisation that happened all across Europe more then 50 years ago (England, France, etc. populations are now 90% urban) and there is little that can be done to stop it, it is just what happens to modern, service oriented Western countries.

FG desperately needs to re-invent itself to appeal to an increasingly urban, liberal population, sticking to their rural roots is a losing proposition IMO.

An economically centerist (for Ireland), socially liberal leader and party is exactly what the majority of younger, urban people have been waiting for IMO.

The problem is that the "urban and liberal" youth don't turn out to vote. It's all good and well appealing to them, but that doesn't really matter if they're don't bother voting.

Honestly, no matter who wins, Fine Gael is unlikely to remain popular - Coveney is more rural and lacks the charisma that Martin would, whilst Vradkar is too liberal for rural Ireland. It's all good and well saying Ireland is urbanising so the rural vote will matter less and less, but the rural vote still matters and I don't think FG are willing to lose the next 2 or 3 elections and waiting for the tide to shift in their favour.

For Forks Sake

seamus wrote: »

I'm not sure what's been going on behind the scenes, but certainly from the outside it seems like Leo has been taking part in this contest for six months, while Coveney has been sitting back and waiting for Enda to retire before making a move.

So Varadkar's early lead could just be down to him having done the legwork to get more firm supporters early on, and it doesn't mean that he's going to take two-thirds of the whole party.

Parliamentary Party counts for 65% of the total vote, Councillors 10 % and ordinary members 25%.

The way things are going, Varadkar will have 2/3 of the Parliamentary party, apparently he's been canvassing support amongst the councils the length of the country for the past 12 months.

Brussels Sprout

This race is over already.

goose2005

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Parliamentary Party counts for 65% of the total vote, Councillors 25 % and ordinary members 10%.

The way things are going, Varadkar will have 2/3 of the Parliamentary party, apparently he's been canvassing support amongst the councils the length of the country for the past 12 months.

No, it's 25% for members and 10% for councillors

For Forks Sake

goose2005 wrote: »

No, it's 25% for members and 10% for councillors

Yikes, brainfart on my part there, trying to post multiple things at the same time doesn't compute. Edited accordingly.

I think the way things have been going with the number of TD/MEP's backing him early, will influence thinking amongst those yet to vote (membership), and to a lesser extent councillors who won't want to be seen backing the losing horse.

hurler32

If Leo varadker gets in we might as well closedown Rural Ireland...Dublin , Dublin and more Dublin will be Fine Gaels mantra as if they arent bad enough towards rural Ireland.:mad:

willmunny1990

Sickening to think Varadkar will probably win, everything about him makes my skin crawl.

He's one of the most Narcissistic, egotistical, smug, arrogant nanny state pushing vomit inducing politician ive ever seen or heard of.

Itssoeasy

I'm listening to Simon coveneys opening press conference and he's not as flashy as Leo in terms of soundbits but he seems like a very honest and genuine guy. Now whether that will be a help or hinderance I don't know.

Mr.Micro

loyatemu wrote: »

who exactly?

That is the point. Neither of the two candidates are going to revive the fortunes of FG. Dull and staid. FF will be delighted.

murphaph

hurler32 wrote: »

If Leo varadker gets in we might as well closedown Rural Ireland...Dublin , Dublin and more Dublin will be Fine Gaels mantra...

Will make a pleasant change. Dublin has been starved of infrastructure since the foundation of the state. A couple of disconnected tram lines do not a thriving capital city make.

The whole country is about to pay the price for this as Brexit bankers move to Amsterdam and Luxembourg instead of Dublin but most will not even realise how we've shot ourselves in the foot by endlessly de-prioritising our only city capable of winning those lucrative jobs.

Calina

murphaph wrote: »

Will make a pleasant change. Dublin has been starved of infrastructure since the foundation of the state. A couple of disconnected tram lines do not a thriving capital city make.

The whole country is about to pay the price for this as Brexit bankers move to Amsterdam and Luxembourg instead of Dublin but most will not even realise how we've shot ourselves in the foot by endlessly de-prioritising our only city capable of winning those lucrative jobs.

We didn't really do that. What we have is a tendency in Ireland to do as little as we can get away with doing. The Luas lines as they exist were an example of that. The single M50 bridge for years was another example of that. This is not a rural versus Dublin thing: it's a lack of imagination thing

I live in Luxembourg. They have a lot of problems in terms of transport and infrastructure at the moment But they are also being imaginative in dealing with some of them. The population of the city area is around 150K. There is a 16 km tramline going in and a major transport hub being developed at one end of it to release pressure on parts of the public transport infrastructure as exists. It will integrate three modes. At the other end, another hub is integrating trams, buses, mainline rail via a funicular. All of this is connecting to the airport as well. Like Ireland, Luxembourg recognises that one of the big problems it has is relative population dispersal. This means that they lack critical mass for making commuter rail work.

I left Dublin for a lot of reasons but key contributions to them were a) cancellation of Metro north. b) lapsing of the Dublin underground interconnector. Both of these were justified by "we'll see if we can do it cheaper" and "maybe we will have a look at the route again. The M20 likewise was shelved and will have to be restarted from scratch - this is outside Dublin.

The issues here are linked, I think, to some of the Anglo-culture we have where we look at short term gains versus long term gains.

But the people of Dublin have contributed to this too. They have a critical mass of public representatives and their councils comparatively get more money than most of the other councils. What happens to the property tax? Their councils vote to reduce it. They don't demand that something is done about their public transport. They moan at length about their buses, they moan at length about their trams. How many of them write to their local representatives demanding that things are reprioritised?

I fully agree that Dublin is very poor for infrastructure. But I don't blame rural Ireland for that. I blame Dublin for that because they have the wherewithal to campaign and demand and none of them do it. The most effort being made is coming from the cycle lobby and they are making progress. The rail users lobbies were just pathetic when I had anything to deal with with them. No one has a vision for what Dublin could be. We talk every once in a while about the airport. Metro North slashed. The spur to the DART line gets picked up because hey it will be cheap but the capacity in the city centre is not there because the interconnector got dropped for now. The ministers for transport responsible for these were both Dublin TDs. One of them was, oh wait, one of them was Leo Varadkar. Who is the leading candidate for the leadership of FG.

Nothing is going to change. It's not that Varadkar will close down rural Ireland. It's that when he had the chance to influence the future of Dublin and moving people around it, he did not exactly shine a light there either.

Leonard Hofstadter

At the end of the day, Transport and Infrastructure don't win elections - freebies and tax cuts do.

The only time we ever get stuff done on Transport is when we manage to convince the EU to give us free money to do stuff we really should be doing anyway.

Until such time that we grow up as a nation and enough people decide investing in our transport infrastructure is an election issue we will continue to have substandard roads and rail, not just in Dublin, but everywhere else as well.

Dinarius

In the U.K., they are obsessed with theory to the point of stasis. How often have you heard of the "So and So Think Tank" and the "Such and Such Think Tank". They are two a penny. Their problem is that they theorise to the point of doing nothing.

Our problem is the total opposite. We have no strategic thinking, or virtually none. Then, when the wheels come off, we think, "Oh, dear!", and apply an Elastoplast, for as little cost as possible. Or do what Brussels tells us to do to solve the problem.

D.

Dinarius

So, will the (essentially urban) Fine Gael TD elite ignore the wishes of the masses?

I wrote at the beginning of this thread that it should be Coveney's smoother front man to Varadkar's backroom fixer.

I still believe it should be.

They may yet regret their decision.

D.

HivemindXX

Dinarius wrote: »

So, will the (essentially urban) Fine Gael TD elite ignore the wishes of the masses?

I wrote at the beginning of this thread that it should be Coveney's smoother front man to Varadkar's backroom fixer.

I still believe it should be.

They may yet regret their decision.

D.

That's an interesting way of characterising a 48-44 split in a poll that has such a large margin of error that they felt compelled to mention it in the article. I believe "essentially even" would be a better description than "urban elite ignores wishes of the masses".

vimalandrew

vimalandrew2017
pending
Microsoft CEO is an Indian. Google CEO is an Indian. Now irish taoiseach is an Indian. Next US president will also be an Indian. The game of Zionism. Otherwise Americans and Europeans will have to go to India and China in 20 years for daily wage work.

Royal Legend

get the impression that the media are pushing for Coveney, I suppose its not as if they have to be impartial like in an normal election, take RTE news last night on the hustings, mostly about what Coveney said then one sentence at the end for Varadker. Well I suppose Money talks

Beechwoodspark

It's clear the media want their man Varadkar to win. They have been pushing for him for the last 12 months if not longer.

Water John

Leo landing a double whammy, sucker punch. 'walking in over water meters to tell a family that the ill young person has their medical card taken off them'.
Leo says not happening on his watch.

Ties Coveney to the water debacle and mocks Coveney's social justice caring link.

With the Parlaimentary Party about 2:1, that gives Leo 40%, game over.

oscarBravo

Royal Legend wrote: »

get the impression that the media are pushing for Coveney...

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

It's clear the media want their man Varadkar to win.

I've always said that the best measure of objectivity is pissing everyone off equally.

Sosurface

I abhor FG and their followers but hopefully they go with Coveney and at least leave us keep an Irishman as Taoiseach.

johnnyskeleton

Sosurface wrote: »

I abhor FG and their followers but hopefully they go with Coveney and at least leave us keep an Irishman as Taoiseach.

Mod note:

This forum is for serious discussion. The above is just trolling.

seamus

I'd like to see Varadkar win just to see the reaction of the one guy on my facebook feed who's been freaking out that a "gay foreigner" might become Taoiseach.

Though the bigot/racist undercurrent could come out in the FG membership voting, I wouldn't write that off.

I've definitely cooled a lot on Leo over the few weeks, he's a good more right than I would have expected, though Coveney still a bit too wishy-washy IMHO.

My main concern about Leo winning is actually the "gay foreigner" angle. In that he might feel the need to be deliberately more conservative and nationalist than he actually is, to dispel any notions that he's playing favourites with gay people or immigrants. And that any missteps he makes would have some quarters thinking, "Ah well, that's what happens when you elect a gay man".

To paraphrase a friend on FB; I expect Varadkar will be about as good for gay rights as Thatcher and May have been for women's rights.

Plus, we're in a weird period of geopolitics where having someone who's very prescriptive and inflexible on policy may not be the best thing.

Dinarius

It's looking like Coveney may win the popular vote, while Varadkar wins the "Electoral College", so to speak.

If so, a case of the insider elite ignoring the wishes of the great unwashed, methinks.

Despite the TDs having the final say, the vote of the rest is, in effect, a poll on who the FG voters at large would like to see as leader.

The TDs may yet regret not heeding them.

D.

Water John

Kenny never had the members either, from those that I know.
The reverse, having the members but not the Parliamentarians is just untenable.
FG possibly got the Electoral College about right. If the public reps were evenly divided, the members would sway the vote. Otherwise, they only are getting a nominal nod, of influence.

Harry Angstrom

Dinarius wrote: »

It's looking like Coveney may win the popular vote, while Varadkar wins the "Electoral College", so to speak.

If so, a case of the insider elite ignoring the wishes of the great unwashed, methinks.

Despite the TDs having the final say, the vote of the rest is, in effect, a poll on who the FG voters at large would like to see as leader.

The TDs may yet regret not heeding them.

D.

It's hilarious how Fine Gael are lauding the leadership contest as some kind of great exercise in democracy yet the excessive weighting of votes in favour of parliamentary party members makes a mockery of the whole thing.

Sam Russell

Dinarius wrote: »

It's looking like Coveney may win the popular vote, while Varadkar wins the "Electoral College", so to speak.

If so, a case of the insider elite ignoring the wishes of the great unwashed, methinks.

Despite the TDs having the final say, the vote of the rest is, in effect, a poll on who the FG voters at large would like to see as leader.

The TDs may yet regret not heeding them.

D.

I think the FG members would be horrified to consider themselves part of the 'great unwashed'.

FG voters might be another case, but I would think otherwise.

If the vote of FG members is within 40/60, I think it will not matter but Coveney will have done well to win any of the votes. Leo has outsmarted him, and Simon's voice has gone up an octave in the debates.