English 1000 Guineas 2017

diomed

I always think the 1000 Guineas goes to form more than the 2000 Guineas.
Almost always the winner has a Group race win, probably a Group 1, or has gone close.

Year Filly Odds this before RPR Group
1990 Salsabil 6/4 1 4 115 Gr 1
1991 Shadayid 4/6 1 4 124 Gr 1
1992 Hatoof 5/1 1 4 116 Gr 1 2nd btn shd
1993 Sayyedati 4/1 1 5 115 Gr 1
1994 Las Meninas 12/1 0 2 108 Gr 1 2nd btn 1/2l
1995 Harayir 5/1 1 5 113 Gr 2, Gr 1 3rd
1996 Bosra Sham 10/11 1 3 118 Gr 1
1997 Sleepytime 5/1 1 3 102 Gr 1 3rd
1998 Cape Verdi 100/30 0 4 112 Gr 2
1999 Wince 4/1 1 7 101 Gr 3
2000 Lahan 14/1 1 3 104 Gr 2
2001 Ameerat 11/1 0 3 103 Gr 3 2nd
2002 Kazzia 14/1 0 2 105 Gr 3
2003 Russian Rhythm 12/1 0 4 114 Gr 2, Gr 1 2nd
2004 Attraction 11/2 0 5 117 Gr 2
2005 Virginia Waters 12/1 1 5 98 Gr 3 3rd
2006 Speciosa 10/1 1 7 108 Gr 2
2007 Finsceal Beo 5/4 0 5 120 Gr 1
2008 Natagora 11/4 1 8 117 Gr 1
2009 Ghanaati 20/1 0 2 87 Maiden
2010 Special Duty 9/2 1 5 117 Gr 1
2011 Blue Bunting 16/1 0 3 99 Listed
2012 Homecoming Queen 25/1 2 13 104 Gr 3
2013 Sky Lantern 9/1 1 7 110 Gr 1
2014 Miss France 7/1 1 4 114 Gr 3
2015 Legatissimo 13/2 2 5 100 Listed
2016 Minding 11/10 0 5 119 Gr 1


this = number of races this year before the 1000 Guineas
before = number of races lifetime before the 1000 Guineas
RPR = the best RPR achieved as a two year old (not necessarily the year end rating)
Group = the best group race result achieved before the 1000 Guineas, usually as a 2yo but not always

The average 2yo best RPR was 110
Half of the 27 winners had Group 1 form
The average number of races before was 4.7

Gregk961

I had forgotten Blue Bunting won the guineas. Will always remember being on the line for her Irish Oaks win, dont know how she got up.

Must have been a serious gallop on for her to win a 1 mile Group 1 race.

diomed

Gregk961 wrote: »

I had forgotten Blue Bunting won the guineas. Will always remember being on the line for her Irish Oaks win, dont know how she got up.
Must have been a serious gallop on for her to win a 1 mile Group 1 race.

There was a strong headwind coming off the right that day. Frankie Dettori kept Blue Bunting out of the wind to the left of the bunch all the way and popped he out close home to win. It was a very smart ride.

diomed

I recently bought a book European Pattern Races 2017 published by The British Horseracing Authority (cost £52)
It lists the flat race programme for 2017, but it also has some interesting statistics about 2016.
Below are the European Thoroughbred Rankings 2016 Two-Year-Olds it lists.
I've only bothered to extract the fillies running in the 1000 Guineas.
Frequently the winner of the 1000 Guineas is a filly who had a high 2yo rating.

116 Rhododendron
115 Roly Poly
114 Queen Kindly
112 Dabyah
112 Intricately
111 Hydrangea
110 Fair Eva

Rhododendron is favourite, although her form is very close to that of Intricately and Hydrangea.
She beat Hydrangea twice and looks a bigger filly.
She was born on 11th Feb, Intricately born 10th March, Hydrangea born 1st April.
These three have finished 1,2,3 twice, 1,2 another time, and in different orders.
I don't like her short price, about 2/1, and that she hasn't run yet in 2017.

Roly Poly is the first I'll drop off my list is because she is by the sire War Front.
He is the sire of Air Force Blu who ran 12th of 13 runners when 4/5 fav in the 2016 2000 Guineas.

Browsing through the BHA book I noticed that there were 47 2yos rated 110+.
These were the sires with the greatest number of 110+ rated European 2yos:
Galileo 9; War Front 5; Fastnet Rock 2; Frankel 2; Scat Daddy 2; Shamardal 2

Then I looked at the 2016 top-rated 3yos and found 33 3yo rated 115+.
These sires had the greatest number of 3yo rated 115+
Galileo 8; Dubawi 3; Cape Cross 2

There are no War Front 3yos rated 115+.
I don't have time to investigate this.
Did he have no 3yo in 2016, or is there some other reason?
Some say War Front 2yos do not train on to be good 3yos.

I've decided to ignore colts and fillies in the 2000 Guineas and 1000 Guineas by War Front until he has an English Classic winner.
Ma Biche by Key To The Kingdom in 1983, Ravinella by Mr Prospector in 1988, Blue Bunting by Dynaformer in 2011 are about the only Guineas winners by USA sires other than by Northern Dancer.

Queen Kindly at 38s might surprise with a change of jockey.
Gerald Mosse rides. Jamie Spencer rode he in her six races to date.
She won two 5f races as a 2yo which suggests to me that 8f might a stretch.

Dabyah is very unlikely to run in the 1000 Guineas as she looks like running in the French Guineas instead.

Intricately ran in the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial, finishing 4th.
This imo was better than her being pushed too hard.
It was a trial, not the target. She is very interesting at 18s.
She beat Hydrangea and Rhododendron in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes.

Hydrangea is my bet at 13.3.
In his stable tour Aidan O'Brien on attheraces.com 14th April "She’s a solid filly that is being trained for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket".
She has a good attitude, although she may lack size.
Unfortunately she won the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial narrowly after a strong ride by her lesser known jockey.
He was probably thinking more about the percentage and the glory than the filly.

Fair Eva by Frankel at 8s is a threat.
After winning her maiden she ran well in three Group races, all four races on good/firm, but has not yet raced in 2017.
He dam African Rose won a Group 1 6f race and was placed a few times at 8f.

Daban at 6/1 hasn't the form of those mentioned above. She won the Group 3 Nell Gwyn recently but the field was not top class.

Winter by Galileo was 2nd in the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial.
The bookies have slashed her price from 33/1 to as low as 8/1.
She didn't win the trial race, she was second. People love potential.
And her form before the race was average. She had three previous runs in maiden before winning at Dundalk.
I'd prefer to stick with proven horses instead of following the odds and rumours.

Prediction
1 Hydrangea
1 Fair Eva
3 Rhododendron
4 Intricately
5 Daban
6 Queen Kindly
7 Poet's Vanity
8 Unforgetable Filly

Harry Angstrom

Spencer was awful on Queen Kindly in the Fred Darling. Not surprised he's been jocked off.

madmoose

Is Sea of Grace running? Caught the eye for a long way lto and should come on for this even if she does need further.

diomed

madmoose wrote: »

Is Sea of Grace running? Caught the eye for a long way lto and should come on for this even if she does need further.

"Declare by 10 a.m. May 5th"
We will know the field shortly after that time.

Aurora1966

Moat memorable in each decade for me were Bosra Sham 96, Attraction 04 and Minding 16.
There were many other good ones but rarely hit the exceptional heights, as Minding has come along this decade its unlikely we see a special one this year.

kfallon

madmoose wrote: »

Is Sea of Grace running? Caught the eye for a long way lto and should come on for this even if she does need further.

Pretty sure they were seriously considering going to France with her!

sting60

diomed wrote: »

I recently bought a book European Pattern Races 2017 published by The British Horseracing Authority (cost £52)
It lists the flat race programme for 2017, but it also has some interesting statistics about 2016.
Below are the European Thoroughbred Rankings 2016 Two-Year-Olds it lists.
I've only bothered to extract the fillies running in the 1000 Guineas.
Frequently the winner of the 1000 Guineas is a filly who had a high 2yo rating.

116 Rhododendron
115 Roly Poly
114 Queen Kindly
112 Dabyah
112 Intricately
111 Hydrangea
110 Fair Eva

Rhododendron is favourite, although her form is very close to that of Intricately and Hydrangea.
She beat Hydrangea twice and looks a bigger filly.
She was born on 11th Feb, Intricately born 10th March, Hydrangea born 1st April.
These three have finished 1,2,3 twice, 1,2 another time, and in different orders.
I don't like her short price, about 2/1, and that she hasn't run yet in 2017.

Roly Poly is the first I'll drop off my list is because she is by the sire War Front.
He is the sire of Air Force Blu who ran 12th of 13 runners when 4/5 fav in the 2016 2000 Guineas.

Browsing through the BHA book I noticed that there were 47 2yos rated 110+.
These were the sires with the greatest number of 110+ rated European 2yos:
Galileo 9; War Front 5; Fastnet Rock 2; Frankel 2; Scat Daddy 2; Shamardal 2

Then I looked at the 2016 top-rated 3yos and found 33 3yo rated 115+.
These sires had the greatest number of 3yo rated 115+
Galileo 8; Dubawi 3; Cape Cross 2

There are no War Front 3yos rated 115+.
I don't have time to investigate this.
Did he have no 3yo in 2016, or is there some other reason?
Some say War Front 2yos do not train on to be good 3yos.

I've decided to ignore colts and fillies in the 2000 Guineas and 1000 Guineas by War Front until he has an English Classic winner.
Ma Biche by Key To The Kingdom in 1983, Ravinella by Mr Prospector in 1988, Blue Bunting by Dynaformer in 2011 are about the only Guineas winners by USA sires other than by Northern Dancer.

Queen Kindly at 38s might surprise with a change of jockey.
Gerald Mosse rides. Jamie Spencer rode he in her six races to date.
She won two 5f races as a 2yo which suggests to me that 8f might a stretch.

Dabyah is very unlikely to run in the 1000 Guineas as she looks like running in the French Guineas instead.

Intricately ran in the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial, finishing 4th.
This imo was better than her being pushed too hard.
It was a trial, not the target. She is very interesting at 18s.
She beat Hydrangea and Rhododendron in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes.

Hydrangea is my bet at 13.3.
In his stable tour Aidan O'Brien on attheraces.com 14th April "She’s a solid filly that is being trained for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket".
She has a good attitude, although she may lack size.
Unfortunately she won the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial narrowly after a strong ride by her lesser known jockey.
He was probably thinking more about the percentage and the glory than the filly.

Fair Eva by Frankel at 8s is a threat.
After winning her maiden she ran well in three Group races, all four races on good/firm, but has not yet raced in 2017.
He dam African Rose won a Group 1 6f race and was placed a few times at 8f.

Daban at 6/1 hasn't the form of those mentioned above. She won the Group 3 Nell Gwyn recently but the field was not top class.

Winter by Galileo was 2nd in the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial.
The bookies have slashed her price from 33/1 to as low as 8/1.
She didn't win the trial race, she was second. People love potential.
And her form before the race was average. She had three previous runs in maiden before winning at Dundalk.
I'd prefer to stick with proven horses instead of following the odds and rumours.

Prediction
1 Hydrangea
1 Fair Eva
3 Rhododendron
4 Intricately
5 Daban
6 Queen Kindly
7 Poet's Vanity
8 Unforgetable Filly

We'll put together but Rhododendron is a stayer and I've invested big time in the Oaks.To contemplate a Frankel as good enough seriously undermines a very very good post but that's my very strong opinion of Frankel progeny.The media are now been payed massive money to hype this seriously overrated underwhelming stallion in my very serious opinion.He is now in the very last chance saloon based on mares attained.

tryfix

Firm ground is the key to Rhododendron, she was awesome on it last year and with the super hardy dam of her's she's likely to keep improving as a 3yo. I'm expecting her to be another Minding like machine of a horse this year.

Mgoraf

tryfix wrote: »

Firm ground is the key to Rhododendron, she was awesome on it last year and with the super hardy dam of her's she's likely to keep improving as a 3yo. I'm expecting her to be another Minding like machine of a horse this year.

I could be very very wrong here but I think the 2/1 could turn out to be serious value for this horse.

tryfix

Mgoraf wrote: »

I could be very very wrong here but I think the 2/1 could turn out to be serious value for this horse.

Maybe we're expecting lightning to strike twice, she's not as straightforward as Minding. I thought she was still a bit green when winning the fillies mile, but with Halfway To Heaven as her dam she should keep improving.

Harry Angstrom

Rhododendron shortening after Churchill did the business for Ballydoyle today.

Mgoraf

Alex Hammond has tipped rhododendron

sting60

Ballydoyle have a very interesting runner at Leopardstown called Ensign 16/1.He is a lovely moving horse that has run on ground that was totally against his action on ever run he's had and has his ground for the very first time tomorrow.His breeding suggests he will be a different player on quick ground so I'm expecting a huge run.

PM me nudes

Appleby's hossss in the first very well fancied

Price is all but gone now, currently 5/1

Harry Angstrom

Mgoraf wrote: »

Alex Hammond has tipped rhododendron

A stopped clock is right twice a day

I said

Kit Marlowe in the 410

PM me nudes

PM me nudes wrote: »

Appleby's hossss in the first very well fancied

Price is all but gone now, currently 5/1

Charlie's FWIW

PM me nudes

PM me nudes wrote: »

Appleby's hossss in the first very well fancied

Price is all but gone now, currently 5/1

Easy as you like

diomed

Ground good/firm but I'm guessing it is firm.
Wind 12 knots (about 14 mph) from the north should be helping a little on the mile.

diomed

Does anyone know why Leopardstown have two 1000 Guineas trials, one won by Hydrangea a few weeks ago and another today at 14:45?

WickIow Brave

O'Brien family 1-2-3-4.

WickIow Brave

diomed wrote: »

Does anyone know why Leopardstown have two 1000 Guineas trials, one won by Hydrangea a few weeks ago and another today at 14:45?

One for Newmarket and one for the Curragh.

diomed

It is a long way down to the 1m1f start.
The horses will be tired before they get in the stalls.
I've a small bet on Somehow at 2.64.

diomed

Somehow won in a canter.

BumperD

Intricately's form reads very well so I'll give her my few quid at the prices

diomed

diomed wrote: »

Wind 12 knots (about 14 mph) from the north should be helping a little on the mile.

I must have misread the charts on windfinder.com as they are saying at the course it is a headwind.

diomed

Just to have an interest I've put €5 at 12.5 on Intisaab in the 14:55 Newmarket.

BumperD

Gunmetal for me here.

HarshOstrich

Easy street revue

jimjamcos

Seamie Heffernan having some mare of a day over at Leopardstown.

diomed

Wayne's World

diomed

Aidan is delighted .... not

Copper_pipe

Gamble landed...

Harry Angstrom

Best horse finished second.

Mgoraf

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Best horse finished second.

I think she'll hack up in the oaks

Auroras_encore

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Best horse finished second.

And how do you work that one out ?

Harry Angstrom

Auroras_encore wrote: »

And how do you work that one out ?

Winner had the run of the race. Rhododendron didn't.

diomed

Looking at the replay Winter wouldn't have wanted another furlong.

Auroras_encore

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Winner had the run of the race. Rhododendron didn't.

Didn't think there was that much trouble for her , will have to rewatch

dk6dk6

Auroras_encore wrote: »

And how do you work that one out ?

i don't think it's that hard to work out

tryfix

It's very hard to say what would have happened if Rhododendron had a clear run, she was making up a lot of ground but there was 2L in it at the finish.

The fact is that Winter was ridden up with the pace giving her the best chance of showing her best while Rhododendron would have to have been a superstar to get out of the mess Ryan left her in.

diomed

Althought Aidan O'Brien has done the 2000 Guineas and 1000 Guineas double it feels like he didn't.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

Althought Aidan O'Brien has done the 2000 Guineas and 1000 Guineas double it feels like he didn't.

He'll get over it, and Coolmore will be very happy with another new individual Group 1 for Galileo and that Frankel the heir apparent to Galileo could manage no better than a 5th place out of 4 runners in the two Guineas.

Gamebred

O'Brien would be declared a genius if the fav had won, he hasnt a notion what horse is better at home throws enough darts and one hits the bulls eye, his interview after it was hilarious he cannot string a coherent sentence together.

BumperD

Kevin Blake put winter up at 50/1 a week or so ago

diomed

My bet was Hydrangea. I was disappointed when I saw the jockey selected for her. She was used in the race as a pacemaker for Winter and Rhododendron.

Talaayeb crossed Rhododendron just as she was about to make her move from behind Hydrangea and that may have cost the favourite the race.
She might have beaten Winter with a clear run but she also had ground to make up.

Gamebred

Fav will turn form in the oaks and win by a street.

Itziger

Gamebred wrote: »

O'Brien would be declared a genius if the fav had won, he hasnt a notion what horse is better at home throws enough darts and one hits the bulls eye, his interview after it was hilarious he cannot string a coherent sentence together.

Wins 8 2,000 Guineas* (+a few 1,000, Derby, Oaks. and so on....) Not a genius.

Posts on Boards. A genius.



*English.