Punchestown Day 3

Copper_pipe

Day three of the Punchestown festival gets under way today at 3:40. The opening race is a 25 runner 2 mile handicap hurdle. Le Vagabond, Bobabout and Here for the Craic all look to have good chances in this but the one I’m going for is the Tony Martin trained SWEET COMPANY 6/1 ★★★★. This is a horse I know very well. I got word that he was strongly fancied at Galway last July in a Flat race. He got up to win on the line at very generous odds of 25/1 then. This horse is a bit of a nut case as I found out that day when he nearly ran over everyone in the parade ring after winning, he does have plenty of ability though. He was 3rd on his next run at Listowel over hurdles. Might be a shade unlucky then as he tried to jump the side railing two out. He’s had two nice prep races for this on the flat recently. He was a very fast finishing 4th at Cork 12 days ago when last seen. It should have put him spot on for this race and he sneaks in off bottom weight today. This horse is very well handicapped over hurdles and fences. He does have a mind of his own but I think if he doesn’t pull Denis O'Regan's hands out early he’ll go very close to winning this handicap. I think he could run up a sequence of wins this summer en route to the Galway festival.

Race two the 4:15 is a 2 mile handicap chase with 15 runners to trouble the judge. This race has got some classy horses and some others on the upgrade. Don’t Touch It looks the class act in this race. He won the 2 mile Grade 1 novice hurdle at this festival last year beating some good horses including Petit Mouchoir and Yorkhill. He’s taken well to fences this season and his 2nd to Great Field in a graded race looks like top form. He gave weight away to all last time out on handicap debut. He only found Hurricane Ben too much for him then. He’s a lot better off at the weights with that one today and will no doubt reverse the placings. Jessica Harrington had a decent day yesterday with two winners and this one could well give her another winner. Her other horse Mr Fiftyone has been placed in this race in the past. He’d have a decent chance based on his run behind Fox Norton at Cheltenham in October. Sizing Platinum finished in front of him that day but Mr Fiftyone is better off at the weights today. Robbie Power who is in flying form chose to ride Mr Fiftyone over Sizing Platinum too. Of the Harrington duo I’d say Don’t Touch It has the best chance bot Mr Fiftyone has a place chance. The Elliott duo also have good chances. Third Opinion won well last time out at Clonmel but this could prove too much of a step up today. Potters Point is the dark horse in the field. He beat Don't Touch It by 4l in a bumper her a few seasons back. He’s been lightly raced since. Won both of his starts this season and has the potential to be better. He beat a Jessica Harrington horse called Flaviana last time out. That horse is not in the same league as Don’t Touch It over fences. I rate the Cheltenham winner Tully East the biggest danger but I really like the chances of DON'T TOUCH IT ★★★ in this race.

The 4:50 is the La Touche Cup which is a 4 mile 1f banks race. It’s always one of my favourite races of the week to watch. Risk Of Thunder won this race several times in the past for Enda Bolger and he looks to hold all the cards in this race yet again with the first two in the betting. Cantlow has taken really well to these banks and he ran a cracker when 2nd in this last year. He was well ahead of today's rival Mtada Supreme then. Ran another good race when 3rd to Cause of Causes in the Cheltenham Cross Country race in March. The winner since went on and placed in the Aintree Grand National. CANTLOW ★★★★ isn’t much of a price in this race but I cannot see anything beating him. His stablemate Love Rory who has won here 3 times over these banks could be the one to chase him home. Treo Eile who was 2nd over these banks on Tuesday may be the one to fill out the placings.

The 5:30 is the 3 mile Grade 1 Champion Stayers Hurdle. This race looks a match race between Nichols Canyon and Unowhatimeanharry. Nichols Canyon won the Cheltenham Stayers hurdle last time over over the Harry Fry trained Unowhatimeanharry who was 3rd. This form top class flat horse wasn’t expected to see out the trip then but he was strong in the finish then. Unowhatimeanharry was the odds on favourite that day having won his previous eight races over hurdles. On the day he had no excuses, he was just beaten fair and square. He’ll have to improve again to turn the form around today. Nichols Canyon is unexposed at this trip though and could well have more to offer. I think it will be a great finish between the two again but I think NICHOLS CANYON ★★★ will confirm the Cheltenham form.

The 6:05 is a 3 mile handicap hurdle with 25 runners going to post. I’ve managed to narrow this down to five horses. Those being Minella Awards, No Comment, Oscar Sam, Sutton Manor and Woods Well. The U.K trained No Comment and Minella Awards finished 1st and 2nd in a bumper at this festival a year ago. No Comment won well that day and gave the runner up plenty of weight. Both have turned into decent hurdlers. I think No Comment could confirm the placings with the two again today but they both have good chances. Oscar Sam looks the best of the Jessica Harrington runners in this. This horse has to carry a lot of weight but I think he could well be better than these. He could well be a future graded winner. This horse ran a stormer of a race when giving away lumps of weight when last seen in February. He was 3rd in a qualifier for the Pertemps Final. The runner up that day Sutton Manor was getting 22lb from Oscar Sam. Today there is a major change around in the weights with Oscar Sam 14lb better off. The horse that came 4th in that race was Presenting Percy who won twice since including winning the Pertemps hurdle over Sutton Manor. Bryan Cooper has chosen to ride Woods Well over Sutton Manor today. This horse has been running solid races in novice hurdles this season. He was badly hampered on handicap debut last time out and had to pull up. I’d ignore that run. He’ll go well today given a clear run at a big price. I’m going to side with OSCAR SAM ★★★ (E.W). He is sure to have a great chance based on the form of its last run and the yard and jockey is in flying form.

The 6:40 is the Grade 1 Ryanair Novice chase due to be run over 2 miles. Great Field is by far the best horse in the race. It’s been very good over fences this season as a novice. It’s won by a wide margin on its last three starts over Mall Dini, Don’t Touch It and Hurricane Ben. The only worry with this horse though is it’s jumping. His jockey was very lucky to stay in the plate in each of its 3 wins this season. This horse’s jumping is not for the faint of heart. No doubt he has the ability to win this but his jumping is a big doubt especially around here. The fences are much stiffer. If I were to back him it would be with a faller insurance. Ordinary World has placed behind some top horses this season over fences including Min, Identity Thief and Altior last time at Cheltenham. He usually finds a few too good though. If anything did happen to Great Field he could be the one to pick up the pieces. I highly rate the chances of Ballyoisin in this race. He looked like a future champion when beating Townsend by 6l two runs back and would have won bar a 3rd last fence fall last time out from next time out winners Ball D’arc and Tully East. This horse has jumping issues like Great Field but I think this one is the safer option of the both jumping wise plus with 3 places each way BALLYOISIN ★★ looks the value bet in the race at 7/1.

I won’t go into too much detail on the last two races on the card but I do like the chances of Nicats Benefit at a huge price in the 7:15. This horse had some decent bumper form and is on the up. Won nicely at Clonmel last time out too. At 40/1 NICATS BENEFIT ★ could grab a place. The final race on the day's card the 7:45 is a 2 mile bumper. Midnight Stroll looks to have a good chance but the one to be on is the Willie Mullins trained NEXT DESTINATION ★★★ who was a solid 4th to Fayonagh in the Cheltenham bumper. The first three from that race all boosted the form next time out.

beertons

Fight

Massimo Tara

I think footpad has a huge chance here in the stayers hurdle. I feel the longer trip will suit him and 14/1 is a nice price

Francie Barrett

Lydia's Place at 10/1 in the opener at Beverley for me. Tipped this last time out where it broke well and led early, but seemed to just lose its action finishing a disappointing second. Will forgive it for that run and try again.

Brock Turnpike

Any opinions on:

Jury Duty
Oscar Sam

Both look decent odds to me.

Stheno

I've got

Fridaynightlights
Potters Point
Treo Eile
Oscar Sam
Kate Appleby Shoes
Ball Darc
Barra
Sir Carno

and then a couple of accumulators.

Francie Barrett

Top View Ben should piss up the opener at Perth tomorrow, but An Fear Ciuin was a decent flat horse and might be worth a small bet at a big price on the exchanges tomorrow. At very least worth keeping an eye out for, maybe it'll be aimed for a handicap at some point.

gazza1

Gavin Cromwell won the opener last year and runs 2 this year. Of the 2 i think Soir de Chanentay is a cracking ew bet at 16/1. Improving with each run and a good 2nd lto to Hareth when not really fancied and hopefully will come on further for that run. Cromwell has a 27% strike rate at the track with hurdlers and these are his first runners of this year's festival.
GL

madmoose

Massimo Tara wrote: »

I think footpad has a huge chance here in the stayers hurdle. I feel the longer trip will suit him and 14/1 is a nice price

Has no chance with that joke on board.

STB.

Stayers Hurdle Clondaw Warrior 33/1

This should be as good as the SJ race yesterday and theres a few lurking at big prices. Snow Falcon ran very well at Aintree and you would wonder what price Yanworth would be if he had run here. At 16s SF is massive, but not as massive a price as CLONDAW WARRIOR as 33/1 who's race at Aintree can be forgiven as that ground simply did not suit. Theres not much between Snow Falcon, Shaneshill and Clondaw on the Gowran race in January. Clodaw ran a cracker behind VVM at Leopardstown at Christmas when Katie Walsh got within a length. He's 10 but he's got his ground and Townend up.

Others on the card that should be thereabouts.

6.05 No Comment 15/2
6:40 Ordinary World 8/1
7.45 Midnight Stroll 5/1

Brock Turnpike

Any opinions on:

Jury Duty
Oscar Sam

Both look decent odds to me.

I said

Peculiar places in the bumper in market rasen it's a long long way from Clare to there.

jj mac

Got word for cherokee bill in the bumper. Was told it has had a few problems but should outrun its odds.

beertons

Pinkie Brown@28/1
Don't Touch It@9/2
Cantlow@4/7
U no what I mean Harry@4/1
Saddlers Risk@33/1
Great Field@11/10
Asthuria@9/4

12 Euro ew super heinz.

danganabu

beertons wrote: »

Pinkie Brown@28/1
Don't Touch It@9/2
Cantlow@4/7
U no what I mean Harry@4/1
Saddlers Risk@33/1
Great Field@11/10
Asthuria@9/4

12 Euro ew super heinz.

You have almost €3,000 on this with a 4/7 shot and a 33/1 shot in the same bet?

Or is it 5c e/w?

beertons

5c. My bad.

danganabu

beertons wrote: »

5c. My bad.

Was getting worried about you there, thought Joey Barton had joined Boards

minibear

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Lydia's Place at 10/1 in the opener at Beverley for me. Tipped this last time out where it broke well and led early, but seemed to just lose its action finishing a disappointing second. Will forgive it for that run and try again.

great shout.

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Lydia's Place at 10/1 in the opener at Beverley for me. Tipped this last time out where it broke well and led early, but seemed to just lose its action finishing a disappointing second. Will forgive it for that run and try again.

Easy as you like.

WickIow Brave

Punchestown:
6:05 Sure Reef (40/1) e/w
6:40 Baily Cloud (33/1) e/w
7:15 Pravalaguna (6/1) e/w
7:45 Rathcannon (12/1) e/w

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Top View Ben should piss up the opener at Perth tomorrow, but An Fear Ciuin was a decent flat horse and might be worth a small bet at a big price on the exchanges tomorrow. At very least worth keeping an eye out for, maybe it'll be aimed for a handicap at some point.

Just backed on Betfair at 140 before the off.

WickIow Brave

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Punchestown:
6:05 Sure Reef (40/1) e/w
6:40 Baily Cloud (33/1) e/w
7:15 Pravalaguna (6/1) e/w
7:45 Rathcannon (12/1) e/w

5:30 De Plotting Shed (66/1) e/w

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Top View Ben should piss up the opener at Perth tomorrow, but An Fear Ciuin was a decent flat horse and might be worth a small bet at a big price on the exchanges tomorrow. At very least worth keeping an eye out for, maybe it'll be aimed for a handicap at some point.

Nice run which the horse will come on from the run and a 3rd place finish.

Earendil

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Lydia's Place at 10/1 in the opener at Beverley for me. Tipped this last time out where it broke well and led early, but seemed to just lose its action finishing a disappointing second. Will forgive it for that run and try again.

Giddyup Francie!

gazza1

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Lydia's Place at 10/1 in the opener at Beverley for me. Tipped this last time out where it broke well and led early, but seemed to just lose its action finishing a disappointing second. Will forgive it for that run and try again.

Top stuff francie. Well done

beertons

danganabu wrote: »

Was getting worried about you there, thought Joey Barton had joined Boards

You lost me.

Shemale

beertons wrote: »

5c. My bad.

Which bookie is letting you do 5c a line?

beertons

Shemale wrote: »

Which bookie is letting you do 5c a line?

pp

Francie Barrett

That Treo Eile could easily have been backed.

jasushaw

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Easy as you like.

Any more lads?

Be very surprised if Barry Cash doesnt pick up a few days for his energetic encouragement there.

beertons

There's 2 threads here, can they be merged?

Outlaw Pete

Fancy Townend to come late with Clondaw Warrior and get into at least the first four home... 3/1 on Betfair.

GavRedKing

Threads merged

Harry Angstrom

Nichols unbeaten on right-handed tracks over jumps. 3 from 3 at Punchestown.

irish_major

Francie Barrett wrote: »

That Treo Eile could easily have been backed.

Backed him during the week and stayed away today as I thought he'd had a hard enough race. :rolleyes:

DDC1990

Some epic finishes this week.

2 great ones in a row now.

Uknowhatimeanharry stayed on well to hold off NC.

Auroras_encore

DDC1990 wrote: »

Some epic finishes this week.

2 great ones in a row now.

Uknowhatimeanharry stayed on well to hold off NC.

Best horse lost there

Ben Gadot

Ruby found himself in a battle he wasn't expecting there I think. He'll be kicking himself.

Massimo Tara

Auroras_encore wrote: »

DDC1990 wrote: »

Some epic finishes this week.

2 great ones in a row now.

Uknowhatimeanharry stayed on well to hold off NC.

Best horse lost there

You obviously weren't watching the mighty footpad there

Massimo Tara

Auroras_encore wrote: »

DDC1990 wrote: »

Some epic finishes this week.

2 great ones in a row now.

Uknowhatimeanharry stayed on well to hold off NC.

Best horse lost there

You obviously weren't watching the mighty footpad there

FatRat

What's the story with Ruby? He can't win a race, even with the best horses.

WickIow Brave

Footpad didn't see it out but he'll be a bet in the JLT next year. Hope Sutton Place was just a precautionary PU.

posturingpat

Footpad given the perfect ride. Don't let your dislike of Jacob make bad rides out of good ones lads.

WickIow Brave

posturingpat wrote: »

Footpad given the perfect ride. Don't let your dislike of Jacob make bad rides out of good ones lads.

Second most profitable jockey to back in the UK this year I read this morning.

Outlaw Pete

The form of Ball D'Arc's 2nd to Ballycasey is better than anything most of these have shown... on him @ 3/1 w/o the fav.

Having a nightmare of a festival so far mind.

Rumpy Pumpy

Great Field is a serious horse.

Johner

Rumpy Pumpy wrote: »

Great Field is a serious horse.

Serious engine, I'm amazed he has completed in his 4 starts over fences though. He would be a great sight around Sandown, would love to see him in the Tingle Creek next season.

hawkhead

The green lady ran a nice last week at fairy house, travelling well to three out before staying on under a kind enough ride. Going to take a chance on it in the next

beertons

That'll do me.4 wins, 2 placed and a non runner.

Heroditas

beertons wrote: »

That'll do me.4 wins, 2 placed and a non runner.

What return did you get on that?