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Original Question: Heatwave week of 03-04-17 ? Replies and guessed highest Temps.

  • 31-03-2017 3:12pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 555 ✭✭✭ slimboyfat


    According to the Donegal Weather Channel, there is going to be a heatwave next week with 'TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY HITTING 20C'. :eek:


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,412 ✭✭✭ vandriver


    20°c is a heatwave in Donegal.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,319 ✭✭✭ derekeire


    Surely this should be in After Hours!

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  • Registered Users Posts: 555 ✭✭✭ slimboyfat


    vandriver wrote: »
    20°c is a heatwave in Donegal.

    15°c is a heatwave in Donegal! lol


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,020 ✭✭✭ Simon Gruber Says


    vandriver wrote: »
    20°c is a heatwave in Donegal.

    You'd not be long getting sunburnt


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,023 Donal55


    Thats summer fcuked so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,306 ✭✭✭✭ jimmycrackcorm


    slimboyfat wrote:
    15°c is a heatwave in Donegal! lol


    Rathmullen be packed one it goes above 10°


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Donal55 wrote: »
    Thats summer fcuked so.

    Summers fcuked anyways coz Sea Ice on Fram next to Greenland is pooling cool air down on us every Summer when the Anticyclone goes home to Spain or every time theres a West or Northwest wind. Wait until Easter and it will be 10c again not 20 or 21c like next week.

    Still everyone now knows Ireland statistically gets its best weather in April May and early June. Summer is the name of a season where its sunny and hot but we have to call it Summer here too even though Spring is our Summer. Our seasons are
    Summer
    Not Summer
    Autumn
    Late Autumn


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    From Met Eireann

    Outlook

    Monday: Rain in western counties will extend everywhere during the morning and will then turn more to showers during the afternoon and evening. A clearance will develop during the evening and night. Highest temperatures of 13 or 14 degrees.

    Tuesday: Apart from an isolated shower, most of the day will be dry but rather cloudy overall, or with only brief periods of sunshine. Quiet a fresh day with highs of 9 to 11 degrees in westerly breezes.

    Midweek: Except for an occasional shower it will continue to remain dry but rather cloudy. Temperatures will remain in the range 10 to 12 degrees in westerly breeze




    Hyperthermia wont pose too much of a problem :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Massive difference between MT and ME, although MT seems to be dropping expectations a little today.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,271 ✭✭✭ Elemonator


    How can this be? Wasn't that sunny day we had 3 weeks ago our summer for this year?


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,467 ✭✭✭✭ drunkmonkey


    Anyone know what the water temperature on the west coast will be, wouldn't mind an auld dip.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    next week looks to be struggling in low double figures, a million miles from a heatwave.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,279 ✭✭✭ snowstreams


    Anyone know what the water temperature on the west coast will be, wouldn't mind an auld dip.

    The temperature at salt hill in Galway is just around the 10c mark. So pretty cold. It's actually warmer in early December than early April.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Because Met Eireann dont pass much heed on GFS -they use HIRLAM, the temperatures they see are less on the other models.

    Id expect a late change if other models follow GFS which is showing at least 17c from Wed to Fri.

    Still as long as its dry who gives a shy?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,092 ✭✭✭✭ joujoujou


    pauldry wrote: »
    [...] Our seasons are
    Summer
    Not Summer
    Autumn
    Late Autumn

    With all due respect Sir, I have to disagree.

    Our seasons are:

    - cold Autumn,
    - warm Autumn.

    ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    A heatwave then a chilly outbreak if the GFS is correct in the run up to Easter


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 Clonmel1000


    A heatwave then a chilly outbreak if the GFS is correct in the run up to Easter

    How is a temp range forecasted of 9-13 degrees a heatwave? We get that in December.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    I think some (including me) suspect that the GFS, if correct, would also be underestimating the highs, this high drifting in after the weak cold front on Monday has thickness values that can support temps as high as 18 C and if there's not a general overcast it's hard to see why temps won't respond to the April sunshine even if 850 mb temps are not "heat wave" conducive. Also I factor in the usual recent caveat that everything turns out warmer than one might otherwise expect. The ground is fairly warm after the weather in late March, seas are not unusually cold. I'm going by what I read yesterday from met E since most of this discussion took place based on yesterday's thinking, and weren't they saying only 11-14 C all week? With respect (and I have plenty for them) it seems more likely to reach higher ranges than that away from the sea breeze zones where that would be reasonable. Here again, I'm not sure whether people took that to mean all week or just Tuesday-Wednesday. I see a greater chance of warmth each day going forward, if there's one day where a lot of cloud and not much sunshine might keep temps down it might be Tuesday but that front looks weak to me (away from Ulster at any rate) so I am expecting 4-6 hours of sunshine in Munster and south Leinster, hard to see why temps would remain 11-13 if that happens.

    I think we should have a mini-contest in this thread and see what the readership actually thinks will happen. The contest would be to predict the warmest max anywhere in Ireland from Tuesday to Friday (and name a location if you like).

    I will say it will hit the big 20 at Shannon by Thursday and/or Friday.

    In a way, it's too bad the Donegal news site picked up on this "heat wave" concept because I'm not as optimistic for them, mind you if any sort of weak southeast wind develops then they're going to warm past 15 too, may be more of a Mayo south heat wave though. A little more delicate for the east coast, once the wind gradient weakens to near zero there's nothing to hold back the inland penetration of a 10-15 knot sea breeze which would keep Dublin rather cool. However, I suspect there may be times with very weak sea breezes and a thermal gradient just a short distance inland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    ha hah! ok Newport 21c (ill be wrong as prob only 16c but who cares)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    Met Error constantly underplay the good weather and overplay bad weather. I'd ignore their words on this HP period.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 MidMan25


    Thanks for such a detailed explanation MT!


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    How is a temp range forecasted of 9-13 degrees a heatwave? We get that in December.

    Well the GFS was showing warmer temperatures than the ECM, but using the word heatwave was over doing it a bit.

    As for how warm it might get, i will go with 17c in Claremorris on Friday


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,193 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    With all due respect I wouldn't be going to the Donegal page for sensible commentary.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Maximum Temp. Moorepark Thurs 17C


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Yeah, I'm sure that three days in the 18-20 C range (which is probably the best this could produce) is not really an official heat wave but you know the general public will use heat wave for any reasonable stretch of warm weather, or at least not reject the term. I would use warm spell for anything much below 25 C and reserve heat wave for 25+ and I think the official definition might be higher still, I know that in parts of Canada you have to have three days above 30 to justify the term.

    We have not yet broken 14 C where I live, rather unusual for here, and the spring vegetation cycle here is very much behind the usual pace by almost a full month. Last year the cherry blossom peaked in late March and early April (which is fairly normal) and this year it is barely showing any signs of life yet.

    We'll see who blinks first in this big standoff of David and Goliath weather forecasters.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    For me a heatwave is when its 12c at night in December and 30c for one hour in Summer


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    That spell in March 2012 comes to mind as a possible analogue. I will study it more carefully before taking the next step down this road. But I promise I will call it as I see it and not hang on to the previous ideas just to be stubborn. If I have a good reason to call for a cooler outcome then I will. Anyway my forecast does indicate some places that won't perhaps enjoy as much warmth. It won't be everybody every day.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ARPEGE showing higher temperatures then earlier runs with Fri looking to be the warmer day at this stage. GFS still staying quite low showing max of 13C Thurs, Fri, Sat and 14C Sun . Interesting to see how the week pans out.

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 Clonmel1000


    It's nippy today lads


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