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Fraudulent Tipsters

  • 30-03-2017 3:04pm
    Registered Users Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division

    I remember there was recently a thread about some Twitter tipster who who went on a run and everyone was very impressed with him before he tanked badly. I came across a Twitter account who tries to expose fraudulent tipsters and it is currently going after the guy we were talking about which i think was footysupertips? Not sure if this twitter account has an alternative motive so as always take things with a pinch of salt;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Rocco Chilly Ozone

    There was a twatter lad that went 50 in a row, but all at very short digits e.g. 1.2. It was a (theoretical) 10-1m.

    But in essence, very similar to a 5-sided dice with some rounded edges (some applicable knowledge/skill).
    Eventually the lucky run, ran out and in a bad way for his followers and it stank ever since.
    No for him though, as the '365 commissions came in with the negative turn of luck.

    Lightly entertaining, but avoid such time-heavy concepts, whereby the risk factors can't be mitigated due to compounded roll overs.

  • Registered Users Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division

    Its a common 'scam' with twitter tipsters... keep betting and the laws of probability will give you a long enough sequence of low priced winners, everyone jumps on the bandwagon and of course he loses and gets a commission for a larger group of bettors.

    Still can't figure out how so many twitter tipsters have huge followings when they lose money overall to level stakes.

    If any of us posted one or two bets a week on Twitter and showed a good profit over the season we couldn't get the same following as someone that posts nonsense 50 times a day.

    The account this person is targeting has 340,000 followers on Twitter and lose heavily even though they falsify records to make things seem better than they are.

    I looked again at the Twitter account that exposes these tipsters but I don't think the plan is to highlight these tactics, he will probably start posting his own crap tips soon with the affiliate link of course or recommend a wonderful account that he has been tracking that is the real deal...

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Rocco Chilly Ozone

    Not all post up what can be classed as fraudulent tips (unless they're Photoshoped images or post-event comments), they're simply working on high probability at very short odds @1.2 with some basic applied knowledge.

    When you add in statistical likely-hoods, or trend factors, this increases chances from every 5 in 6 being correct to around 9 in 10. Typically their challenges are 10units to 1,000 over 10/20 cumulative stakes.

    1.2*26 = 10/12/14/17/20/24/29/35/42/51/62/74/89/106/128/154/184/221/266/319/383/460/552/662/794/953

    Sometimes Over2.5 FB markets are chosen returning 2.25+, and the initial start can be 20 instead of 10. So it may only take 10-15 rolls.

    One advantage (unlike heavily backing 'certs' like Clinton, or horses that are prone to falling) - is that initial risk/stake is generally very low.

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,876 ✭✭✭✭callaway92

    Not sure why you're calling them fraudulent. .

    They have a method of betting and they do it. If people want to follow they can....

    In regards to saying *25 bets in a row won* etc... its true, so no complaints

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,553 ✭✭✭✭Copper_pipe

    That Shaka The Bookie Smacker is pulling the wool over the eyes of a few hundred people.

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Rocco Chilly Ozone

    callaway92 wrote: »
    Not sure why you're calling them fraudulent. .
    They have a method of betting and they do it. If people want to follow they can....

    In regards to saying *25 bets in a row won* etc... its true, so no complaints

    Agree, the FFT chap had *42 in-a-row genuine wins (followed from around midway of the run).

    Sure they were all at short prices (average 1.25). Even so, to call with 75-80% certainty on 42 consecutive occasions wasn't bad going.

    Would generally advise against following these type challenges, other really just as 'observational interest'.

  • Registered Users Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division

    Talking about the guy who had the 42 winners in a row - lets break that down.

    Assume that all his bets were at odds of 1.25 and he is lucky enough to have an expected win percentage of 80% so if he bets the same amount on each bet he will break even.

    Lets assume that this guy is posting a lot of tips on social media and he has posted 1,000 tips.

    He has a 1.626% chance of winning 42 bets in a row.

    He is not a genius, he doesn't have the ability to identify a lot of good bets, he just uses variance/probability to hit a string of winners - people start posting on forums how incredible this guys run is - people click his affiliate links - he makes money and he is unlikely to ever repeat the feat.

    Thats why its a scam - its just variance, anyone here has a chance of doing the same thing.

    When that 43rd bet lost this guy made a lot of money from affiliate earnings because a lot of people lost money following his tips and strategy.

  • Registered Users Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Division

    Lets assume that he is a losing bettor and he would make a loss if he bet an equal amount on each bet as his expected win percentage drops to 79%.

    Obviously he is a terrible tipster if he can't even make a profit to level stakes.

    He still has a 1.009% chance of winning 42 bets in a row.