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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2017

  • 01-03-2017 4:41pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 9,392 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Lightning just north of clonmel


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Strikes earlier east of Cork City,
    A number of recent strikes near Cashel, and one recent strike between Lismore and Fermoy.

    When thunder is not in the forecast we get it!


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,109 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    A new thread for a new season.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,459 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Big convection going on all right, some nice Cb's moving inland, charts showing some potential for sferics going into the night.

    STdpkne.png?1

    BPqquzr.gif

    Pic : Taken here near Tralee short time ago.

    6cQKSM5.jpg?1


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 Clonmel1000


    Saw 2 flashes and heard one loud clap of thunder.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,459 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Sferic showing up already this morning


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,459 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Wonder will we see a squall line cross southern counties in the early morning during the frontal passage, plenty of wind with it and some instability and wind sheer. The SW has potential for thunderstorms tomorrow, mostly offshore if they happen I would think.



    snYvjFC.png?1

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    ItHE5QW.png?1


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,720 ✭✭✭ Hal1


    VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 05 Mar 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 06 Mar 2017
    An area of low pressure will cross central Britain through Sunday and unstable air to the south of low could help to trigger some heavy showers and a few thunderstorms, especially across southwest and south central England. There will be decreasing DLS in the wake of the low pressure passing by, however LLS along with coastal convergence could help generate a few funnels or weak tornadoes, especially along the south-central coast of England during the mid to late afternoon.

    Source: http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-03-05


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,459 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Forecast for wintry showers Mon evening, possibly thundery as well along Western coasts.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,459 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    eoMd1rN.png

    Day 1 Convective Outlook
    VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 20 Mar 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 21 Mar 2017

    ISSUED 22:31 UTC Sun 19 Mar 2017

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    ... ENGLAND ...

    Strong DLS across the double-structured cold front will likely result in some notable line convection developing as it tracks gradually eastwards, especially from the Midlands / W Country across to E Anglia / SE England. There is a non-zero chance of some embedded lightning with this activity, although the main risks will be a brief spell of very heavy rain and strong gusts of winds. Slight chance of a tornado too.

    ... WALES, SCOTLAND, REPUBLIC OF IRELAND, NORTHERN IRELAND, N + SW ENGLAND ...
    The post-frontal environment will be characterised by ever-steepening lapse rates as cold air aloft overspreads relatively warm SSTs. Showers will become frequent across Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland on Monday, becoming more widespread into England and Wales on Monday night. A broad LOW has been issued to cater for rather sporadic lightning activity possible with these showers, accompanied by some small hail (and sleet/snow on high ground in particular, but not exclusively so).


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,459 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Potential for lightning activity in some Northern areas this evening perhaps .

    64Q2OLE.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,392 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Recent lightning near Achill island


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,459 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Just off Wexford also, big showers across the country. Not much activity yet, maybe as the evening goes on.

    BkAstZv.gif


    Dew Points

    klFixlx.png?1


  • Registered Users Posts: 890 ✭✭✭ downwiththatsor


    Saw some lightning near Farranfore ten mins ago.


  • Registered Users Posts: 31 missfarmer


    Lightning here in North West Cork


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,392 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Plenty of lightning West of Achill now


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    We had thunder and lightning in Galway in a very heavy hail shower.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,392 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Plenty of strikes between Enniskillen and Cavan at the moment


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,459 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Looks like a chance of lightning tomorrow afternoon / evening .

    largethumb.php?date=2017-03-28

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 28 Mar 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 29 Mar 2017

    ISSUED 18:09 UTC Mon 27 Mar 2017

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    A shortwave trough will migrate NE from Biscay and across the British Isles on Tuesday, accompanied by cool mid-levels and hence steeper lapse rates. Assuming this phases favourably with diurnal heating, several hundred Jkg-1 CAPE will allow scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop. However, there is a chance that the upper trough may move through slightly too early for peak heating.

    Nonetheless, a SLGT has been introduced where there is some reasonable confidence for an overlap of instability and upper-level support for at least a few scattered thunderstorms to develop, especially during the afternoon/early evening. It is plausible another SLGT may be needed for portions of E Wales and the Midlands into southern parts of N England, but forecast profiles look drier farther east with hints of capping - so while a few showers and/or thunderstorms are also possible here, they are likely to be more isolated / well-scattered in nature, and hence coverage perhaps not high enough to upgrade to SLGT at this stage.

    Given instability and dry air aloft, hail up to 1.5cm in diameter is possible in the strongest cells.


    27-109UK.GIF?27-12

    nmm_uk1-1-28-4.png?27-18


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    ME have it mentioned in their forecast also.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,392 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Recent lightning near Castlerea


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  • Registered Users Posts: 31,665 ✭✭✭✭ Mars Bar


    Recent lightning near Castlerea

    The skies were pure black when I left Fairymount so that's not a surprise!


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,392 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Plenty of lightning just east of Enniskillen now. Intense showers also near athlone


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    Torrential shower in Galway huge raindrops


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Lots of convection going on around me here in West Clare


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,459 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    A few sferics the last couple of days and marginal possibility for a few tomorrow as well but I wonder will Fri see a lot more activity post frontal rain in the afternoon / early evening ?

    20170329.1718.PPVI89.png

    48-109UK.GIF?29-12

    51-109UK.GIF?29-12

    arpegeuk-28-51-0.png?29-18

    arpegeuk-1-50-0.png?29-18


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,621 ✭✭✭ sparrowcar


    Any upgrade IYO for today/tomorrow Meteorite58?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭ Iancar29


    06z shows a risk for the NW this evening. Initiating over land then quickly moving out over water. Could still put on a light show for people near the coast.
    413167.png

    413168.png
    Decent shear for storms to organise. Could be some nice hail in places before it moves over water.
    413169.png

    One worry though would be the cloud moving up from the south which may limit initiation. http://en.sat24.com/HD/en/eu/visual


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,392 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Lightning just north of Sligo town just now


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,109 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    Sferics running up the Irish Sea atm: http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,459 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Well called Iancar29 , can see the thunderstorm starting over land on the coast of Donegal and moving off shore.

    rnRii1r.png?1


This discussion has been closed.
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