Storm Ewan - Strong winds South and South East coasts Sunday February 26th.

IMBACKLATER

Extremely windy on Sunday, especially across southern and eastern counties.
Southwest winds associated with Storm Ewan, will be fresh to strong and very gusty,
with some severe and damaging gusts along south and southeast coasts.
Becoming wet too, with widespread heavy rain and localised flooding.



STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Wexford, Cork, Kerry and Waterford
Storm Ewan: Southerly winds veering southwesterly will reach gust speeds of 110 to 120km/h
along southern and southeastern coastal counties from early tomorrow Sunday until early afternoon.

Issued:Saturday 25 February 2017 19:44
Valid:Sunday 26 February 2017 06:00 to Sunday 26 February 2017 15:00


STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Longford, Louth,
Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath, Clare, Limerick and Tipperary
Storm Ewan: South to southwesterly winds will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65km/h
with gusts of 90 to 110km/h at times from Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon.

Issued:Saturday 25 February 2017 22:00
Valid:Sunday 26 February 2017 06:00 to Sunday 26 February 2017 15:00

Mars Bar

The one time I'm going south has to be during a storm! :mad:

Gaoth Laidir

sparrowcar

This one crept in under the radar a bit with all the attention Doris received. Gusting 48kts tomorrow at Dublin airport with a crosswind between 200-240 degrees will cause some disruption. Large volume of French fans heading home so the airport is going to be jammed anyway.

Now just wait for JCX BXC to say there won't be disruption tomorrow....

screengrab

Gaoth Laidir

But no model is showing any low pressure centre forming west of Ireland tomorrow and moving northeastwards through the UK. Yes some moderately strong winds (110 kph) along the coast and Irish Sea but I can't see more than 120 kph being registered on a land station (except maybe Aberdaron, which is on a 200 m cliff on the Welsh coast).

Meteorite58

Looking at the ARPEGE 18z rolling out and I think there is a substantial upgrade on winds along southern coasts and I would think that Wexford will get the strongest winds for a time.

Gaoth Laidir

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Looking at the ARPEGE 18z rolling out and I think there is a substantial upgrade on winds along southern coasts and I would think that Wexford will get the strongest winds for a time.

Max gusts from between now and Monday morning...

JCX BXC

Go check the aviation forum Sparrowcar. That crosswind will likely come off if the forecasts occur as they are forecast

I also give my word that if winds had stayed as forecast during Doris there would have been minor disruption.

That should be the end of the matter, Gaoth Laidir was completely correct in the situation the other day and they have not mentioned it since. That can only be seen as respect, something which can be lacking on boards in general with users desperately trying to one up eachother.

/Rant.

I notice Met Eireann have added counties to both warnings, has there been some last minute upgrades to Ewan too?

M.T. Cranium

All available guidance suggests this will be a level one event, not sure how it gets level two billing, at least over land in Ireland, but the key word here is available, maybe in-house they have something different. Anyway, I won't bite until I see the isobars closer than the 18z Arpege, that looks 40G55 at worst.

sparrowcar

JCX BXC wrote: »

Go check the aviation forum Sparrowcar. That crosswind will likely come off if the forecasts occur as they are forecast

I also give my word that if winds had stayed as forecast during Doris there would have been minor disruption.

That should be the end of the matter, Gaoth Laidir was completely correct in the situation the other day and they have not mentioned it since. That can only be seen as respect, something which can be lacking on boards in general with users desperately trying to one up eachother.

/Rant.

I notice Met Eireann have added counties to both warnings, has there been some last minute upgrades to Ewan too?

Wow really? It was a joke.
It must have hit you pretty bad being so wrong about Doris. I was not one of the ones trying to "one up" you or anyone else if you look back at our interactions. I just correctly called you out on your prediction of no disruption.

/Response

Anyway with that crosswind component and expected gusts there will be disruptions tomorrow.

Green Peter

Met Eireann just cannot be taken seriously, they are all over the shop, reminds me of the boy who called wolf. Some day it will really come and we wont take them seriously!

kneemos

Green Peter wrote: »

Met Eireann just cannot be taken seriously, they are all over the shop, reminds me of the boy who called wolf. Some day it will really come and we wont take them seriously!

Don't know why they don't just cog off the BBC,they'd be way more accurate.

pauldry

Doris was like a burglar

She took a tree from us

A day later I noticed she took a gate

This Ewan will get 60knots in Wexford

Came out of nowhere

Thats why weather is the best thing in life

cyclops999

Flying into Dublin after 22:00hrs this evening will Ewan have blown through at that stage TIA

Graces7

No mention of Galway.... again.. ah well, we will as the old adage goes, hope for the best and prepare for the worst... worked great for Doris.

Glad to have expertise here; thank you!

M.T. Cranium

Still a very lethargic performance by models in terms of showing any real gradient here, whereas with Doris there were some models with accurate depictions of a very strong gradient at least 24 hours in advance.

The only minor indication I could find was that K2 buoy southwest of Valentia reported 32 knots.

The upper flow is very strong but what seems to be lacking is any particular energy centre to deepen the surface gradient. I'm going to mention the potential for this in the forecast but I wouldn't be greatly surprised if there was no level two wind event.

However, if I see something that changes my mind before 10:30 then I'll report back on that.

Gaoth Laidir

Waterford airport is right on the coast, just behind Tramore beach. Its TAF has max winds of 30 gusting 50 knots. Winds of 65 knots at 2000 ft.

TAF EIWF 260500Z 2606/2615 21023G35KT 9999 BKN015 BECMG 2606/2609 20028G42KT -RA BKN010 BECMG 2610/2612 20035G50KT TEMPO 2610/2613 4000 RA BKN005 BECMG 2614/2615 25022G36KT 9999 SCT018 BKN020=

Gaoth Laidir

Casement TAF going for 52-kt gusts this afternoon. Dublin still 48 knots.

mickger844posts

Winds picking up a bit here now with gusts to 45 km/h

Two live streaming cams from Waterford on my website here

www.waterfordcityweather.com/wxstream.php

JCX BXC

Extremely heavy rain here in West Clare, 17mm since 7am with flash floods, the rain was so heavy there was even hail in it. Very unexpected, but quite dangerous, especially for drivers.

Graces7

Heavy hard deluges up here this last while and still falling without a pause. Mountains are shrouded.

Stream is buoyant and full bodied.

West Connemara; 400 ft asl

JCX BXC

Another heavy deluge here in West Clare, rain rate 31.2mm/h, setting off more alarms on weather station (got up to 101mm/h for a short time earlier setting off plenty of alarms).

Rain is so heavy currently visibility is reduced to fog like and there is alot of water around

Edit: And again, more hail and extremely heavy rain.

Darwin

On the met.ie short range hourly forecast, there is a visible small low of 986Hpa forming around 11am and centered over Clare. It moves off in a north east direction deepening all the while, perhaps that explains the weather warnings? You can also view the wind profile on a separate tab, and it looks pretty strong too, at least to the same level as Doris for my part of the world (Laois), which gave 54 knots or so.

RoisinD

JCX BXC wrote: »

Another heavy deluge here in West Clare, rain rate 31.2mm/h, setting off more alarms on weather station (got up to 101mm/h for a short time earlier setting off plenty of alarms).

Rain is so heavy currently visibility is reduced to fog like and there is alot of water around

Edit: And again, more hail and extremely heavy rain.

Agree, whatever about a wind event it is certainly a rain event in Clare. The rain has been relentless for the past few hours with extremely long and heavy bursts. Road flooding and field flooding already with more to come, looking at radar.
NWClare

JCX BXC

Looks like a bit of a squall line developing on a line from Tralee through Ennis to Ballinasloe.

Yet another deluge of monsoon rain here in West Clare, rainfall so far today already accounts for 30% of my monthly total and looks like there is alot more to come!

mickger844posts

Sun has actually come out here in Waterford. Max gust thus far 56km/ h

www.waterfordcityweather.com

JCX BXC

mickger844posts wrote: »

Sun has actually come out here in Waterford. Max gust thus far 56km/ h

www.waterfordcityweather.com

Just as you post it increases to 67km/h!

Great to have the live webcam (as opposed to webcams that update say every minute), I can see the streetlight shaking!

Graces7

RoisinD wrote: »

Agree, whatever about a wind event it is certainly a rain event in Clare. The rain has been relentless for the past few hours with extremely long and heavy bursts. Road flooding and field flooding already with more to come, looking at radar.
NWClare

Here too in West Connemara. No idea what conditions are down on the roads but deluge still not let up at all... Been hours now. The track down to the main road will be awash as the mountain streams traverse it.

Meteorite58

Winds which weren't that strong have died off atm in Tralee. 7mm rainfall so far

Don't have access to A computer atm , on the phone, but having reviewed the previous model runs and the latest it would appear that yes this looks more like level 1 type wind event as others have pointed out. Strong winds on S and SE coasts with winds coming inland a bit in Waterford and especially Wexford about mid day. Fast moving, strongest wins should be moved on from about 15.00 - 16.00.

JCX BXC

And all of a sudden, the rain has stopped and the sun has peaked out! West Clare.

26mm today so far.

mickger844posts

JCX BXC wrote: »

Just as you post it increases to 67km/h!

Great to have the live webcam (as opposed to webcams that update say every minute), I can see the streetlight shaking!

Glad you like it, yes on the right of the image you can see the street lights shaking. Should be an interesting few hours ahead.

www.waterfordcityweather.com/wxstream.php

Edit: For those watching, the YouTube stream is facing East so wind blowing from the right of the screen. Other stream is facing SW.

Iancar29

JCX BXC wrote: »

Just as you post it increases to 67km/h!

Great to have the live webcam (as opposed to webcams that update say every minute), I can see the streetlight shaking!

TRAMPOLINE TRAMPOLINE!! :pac: :pac:

Harry Palmr

Blowy but nothing that might threaten a greenhouse.

philstar

a sudden squall just hit east-clare, wheelie bins blown over and torrential rain...came out of nowhere!

spookwoman

71.1km gust registered on the waterfordcity weather page

JCX BXC

Gusting to 49kts at Dublin Airport now.

squonk

Showing signs of brightening here in North Clare. The rain has stopped however in the last 30 minutes the wind has started to pick up. It seems to be picking up relatively quickly. It looks like we might get further squalls.

RobertKK

74km/h at 9.58am is my highest gust so far here north east of Kilkenny City.
http://www.kilkennymet.com/weatherconsole.php

RobertKK

A strong looking squall line crossing the country.

Graces7

.... and here comes the wind, gusts that are shaking the roof all over again.. No respite in the rain.. horizontal now.

Was briefly out and the streams are a sight to behold, racing and rushing...

West Connemara 400ft asl

Graces7

RobertKK wrote: »

A strong looking squall line crossing the country.

I think it arrived here in West Connemara!

EletricMan

Lovely morning now in Tralee.

Graces7

the header changed back to Level one but met.ie is still orange?

nagdefy

What a curse it is to have a first name Walter, i'll never have a storm called after me:mad::D

yllw.ldbttr

Bucketing down now in Cork, wind picking up too.

M.T. Cranium

We can't rule out an isolated damaging wind gust with the squall line but I think the system has failed to develop enough mixing down to bring the very strong winds to the surface (at least the lower elevation surface, up top of some hills it will likely gust to level 2 but that's not unusual).

It looks powerful on satellite but there's no low pressure centre, just the slight troughing associated with the squall line. If a low forms (or had formed) then I could see the mixing and the wind gusts increasing. As things stand, Wexford could still see gusts above 110 km/hr and I think they will show up in the usual places in Wales in about 2 hours.

Squall line would be more dangerous for wind if there was clearing and wind shear but it's embedded in a larger area of rain and cloud, probably a few gusts to near 50 knots in it.

This is a really close call, I think the original level 2 forecast was justified even if it doesn't necessarily verify. Better to go that way than to say it would remain steady-state and have it explode at the last moment.

pedigree 6

This is worse than Doris for here (North west Wexford).
Not much rain but Very Strong Winds.
Wish I had a weather station to record it.:(

Wasn't expecting this at all.

I may start watching the weather forecasts and on here again!

My mother just informed me she heard thunder as well?

JCX BXC

Lashing again in West Clare! Not as heavy as earlier though.

Some serious flooding around the West Clare area, seeing some pictures on Facebook now.

squonk

Seems to be a second squall line starting up out to the west. It's just hit us here in north Clare. Heavy rain passing through for five-ten minutes and the wind has risen very quickly on the back end. More rain out west so I think this might develop as a second line?

M.T. Cranium

The 06z GFS showing potential for level 2 winds on Wed 1st of March in Connacht and south Ulster, something to monitor on more reliable 12z model runs.

Oscar Bravo

Some really intense rain just east of Enniskillen now