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Sunday/Monday (26/27-2) - Snow along west coast

  • 24-02-2017 7:19pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,423 V_Moth


    GFS is going with snow for a broad area of the west coast on Sunday night and Monday morning. The main counties affected look like Donegal, Mayo, Galway, Kerry and west Cork. The model shows snowfall possible into west Leinster.

    Accumulations of 1-2cm in places. It looks like there is a band of rain following behind this so probably won't last.


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Looks like a cold night Sun into Monday, Temps going below zero in places inland away from coasts according to the GFS but not the ARPEGE atm, breezy on the coasts, dew points look good according to the GFS, 850hpa temp looks reasonable , precipitation on the coastal counties early and moving inland. Certainly interesting but in my amateur opinion I would be leaning more to snow on mountains and perhaps rain/sleet lower down with perhaps some wet snow on higher ground. Interesting to see which model has the more accurate temperatures, GFS is normally quite good. Certainly pulling down cold polar airs, but over too long a fetch coming in from the W ? Will be keeping an eye on it.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Having a closer look at this and it would seem that indeed there could be a fine coating of snow ( even if it is coming in from the W ), mainly hills and mountains but possible lower down too early Mon morning along Atlantic coastal counties .Mon looking very cold by the GFS and easy to see why when you see the advection of cold air down from Greenland courtesy of that very deep low off Greenland that dropped to 940hPa. Dam looks good .

    https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/835243314790207489

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  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Interesting; expect heavy traffic on the forum today!

    And thanks for the warning... ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Clare isn't a county I assume Op?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Plenty of precipitation Sun night/ Monday of one sort or another from showers and that trough mainly on the Western side of the country. Could be an interesting day with even the chance of thunder.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭ Iancar29


    528 dam line passes over the country tomorrow night.

    12z Sunday
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    00z Monday
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    Usual suspects should see some snow, Mountainy man - Sligo , the NW, above 150m. Further south , id say 250m and then further east, if anything substantial makes it across then snowline probably around 350m.

    Nice to have a few days of interesting weather close together.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Big difference between the models on 850 hPa temperatures for midnight tomorrow night. On one extreme the Hirlam has -6 °C while the Arpege has only -2 °C. As this level is 200-300 m lower than standard (only ~1200 m amsl) the difference is probably down to how each model handles modification over the long sea fetch. No doubt the warmer Arpege solution will win out...:rolleyes:

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Knock Airport TAF has snow showers in the forecast from 9pm tonight, Shannon Airport TAF has sleet showers in the forecast from midnight tonight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Knock forecasting light showers of snow from 9pm tonight to 12pm tomorrow (as far as the TAF goes), and possible moderate snow showers from 4am in the morning.

    Shannon Airport forecasting light showers of sleet from 1am tonight to 12pm tomorrow, and possible light showers of snow from 9am-12pm tomorrow.

    Cork airport forecasting possible light showers of sleet from 2am tonight.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    It still looks like a very watered down affair with not really a direct feed from Greenland. Looks like the warmer Arpege solution will win out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    Yes, unfortunately, even though the bbc precipitation radar shows a lot of snow showers pushing into the west tonight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Eurocontrol's daily assessment has those showers as rain at midnight tonight, with some snow over land, most likely on high ground. Taken from here

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  • Registered Users Posts: 33,549 ✭✭✭✭ RobertKK


    UK Met office on the BBC giving fairly widespread sleet and snow showers over Ireland tonight, and more in western areas tomorrow with some making it east.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Shower cloudtops out to our west are around -30 °C so most likely hail-embedded.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    Yes, unfortunately, even though the bbc precipitation radar shows a lot of snow showers pushing into the west tonight.

    All looks pretty underwhelming rubbish but don't be surprised if some wet snow does fall from some of the heavier showers later tonight into tomorrow morning.

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    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    On that last image there is a big snow shower right over this cottage!


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    A loud, long intense and heavy hail shower here. Whitened the garden nicely and a little has stayed.

    Wind is wailing. West Connemara, 400 ft asl.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Arpege has the warmest 850hPa, GFS something similar to the HIRLAM and the ECMWF

    Air temperatures along the coasts would seem too high for any lying snow at ground level, possible on hills and mountains.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    Zero or slightly negative Td's moving into the west overnight which still would suggest some brief wet snow episodes during heavier bursts. All pretty sloppy looking.

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    Hopefully there will some nice flickering lightning to look at later on as showery troughs approach the west coast.

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,392 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    A mix of sunny spells and passing heavy showers in castlebar with the temperature back to 4.5 degrees now


  • Registered Users Posts: 655 ✭✭✭ eastmayo


    Heavy sleet shower at the moment just east of knock airport.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    All looks pretty underwhelming rubbish but don't be surprised if some wet snow does fall from some of the heavier showers later tonight into tomorrow morning.

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    Yes, there might be snow at lower levels, but no one is expecting accumulations at lower levels. I think the days of expecting accumulations from snow are long gone:(:(:(


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    Yes, there might be snow at lower levels, but no one is expecting accumulations at lower levels. I think the days of expecting accumulations from snow are long gone:(:(:(

    Think we can blame the ever warming Arctic for that. Temps up there have been up to 30c above normal during this 'Winter'.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    Should the east coast remain snow free?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,619 ✭✭✭ Rougies


    Snowbiee21 wrote: »
    Should the east coast remain snow free?

    Yes, a dusting on mountains maybe.


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    Rougies wrote: »
    Yes, a dusting on mountains maybe.

    Wet snow lower levels ?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,619 ✭✭✭ Rougies


    Snowbiee21 wrote: »
    Wet snow lower levels ?

    Possibly, we may get a suprise or two. Last year in a similar setup, a rogue heavy shower made it to South Dublin which gave a covering for about an hour. That's about the best the east can hope for away from high ground.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 978 ✭✭✭ mountainy man


    At 5pm we had a shower of sleet which briefly turned to wet snow, nothing since, se Sligo.


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