Grand National 2017

Copper_pipe

The weights are out following a ceremony this evening.

I've put all the details into this google sheet along with Bet365 odds. Bet365 paying 5 places ew @ 1/4 odds already.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_dZrDgbkV8ZOGvmd8-t3gJVRTveqqgU-H3WXm-XgkPY/edit#gid=0

Outlander top weight but he won't be going :rolleyes:


Odds are correct as of 22:20 on Valentines Day 2017 :cool:

Harry Angstrom

Blaklion looks nicely weighted on 10-10. Assuming Don Poli is going to run, there will only be a maximum weight rise of 3Ibs, which still puts Blaklion in with less than 11 stone. I always thought Carlingford Lough would be an interesting runner in an Aintree National although any rise in the weights wouldn't be ideal. 33/1 Blaklion worth a small bet for me at this stage.

madmoose

Maggio 50/1 nrnb and 66/1 with Coral not nrnb.

He's old but that doesn't phase me and this has been the plan since he hacked up on the card last year at a big price.

Already backed One for Arthur.

stretchaq

Gallant oscar got 10-1, he won't get in, I think Martin may have this one plotted up is he entered at the festival

HarshOstrich

Le mercury stands out to me as the classiest with very little weight.

NaiveMelodies

Nice to see Highland Lodge a likely runner. Was sure he'd go close too GN glory after his run in the Hennessey in 2013. Need to have a good luck at the more recent figures but he'll be carrying a few of my pound at 50s.

Copper_pipe

Ones I like at the moment

Rogue Angel,
Pleasant Company
Blacklion

Shutthefrontdoor down to 10-3. Down 8lbs on last year

kfallon

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Ones I like at the moment

Rogue Angel,
Pleasant Company
Blacklion

Shutthefrontdoor down to 10-3. Down 8lbs on last year

Will Shutthefrontdoor even get in?

Itziger

The sheer number of Irish and French bred on that list is something else. Can the Brits not breed horses anymore?

Itziger

Lord Windermere!!!!

Ive already taken 33-1 about Vicente since a while back. Looking there he has 10-5

What is the cut off weight for horses to get in?

longshotvalue

O'Faolins Boy is on a nice mark
Lord Scoundrel
Wounded Warrior.

Ill be waiting for NRNB but hey look decent

Shemale

Itziger wrote: »

Lord Windermere!!!!

I was looking at him and thinking with any other trainer it was a remarkable effort to get him to that rating and weight but....

razorhead

Cause of Causes is one I was told to keep an eye on.....

Shemale

razorhead wrote: »

Cause of Causes is one I was told to keep an eye on.....

Are you sure, he seems to really try every race :P

madmoose

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Nice to see Highland Lodge a likely runner. Was sure he'd go close too GN glory after his run in the Hennessey in 2013. Need to have a good luck at the more recent figures but he'll be carrying a few of my pound at 50s.

Well worth backing at that price.

wicky9

Anyone else think Cause of Causes is an attractive price at 33s. He's won the 4 miler which has been a significant trial in the past and has been having an easy time of it and a fun time this year in cross-country races. No NRNB yet but I fodder him shortening significantly when that happens. He's just entered the prime of his racing life. Completed in 2015 but significantly didn't run in 2016 and looks like he may only carry 3lbs more this year! Only caveat being it would need to be good to soft or better on the day

Copper_pipe

https://beta.racingpost.com/news/grand-national/you-re-making-it-up-as-you-go-along-o-leary-in-blast-at-handicapper/275224?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Thursday%20News&utm_content=O%27Leary%20blasts%20Smith

Francie Barrett

Copper_pipe wrote: »

https://beta.racingpost.com/news/grand-national/you-re-making-it-up-as-you-go-along-o-leary-in-blast-at-handicapper/275224?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Thursday%20News&utm_content=O%27Leary%20blasts%20Smith

Gigginstown are correct, the system is an absolute joke. When you look at the races Don Poli has run in, look at what it beat, and what beat it and the distances involved, you have to acknowledge it has always ran with genuine intentions and the Irish handicap rating is fair.

I understand the British handicapper has to take into account certain Irish outfits that have taken them for a ride in previous years, but Don Poli clearly was a wrong horse to target here.

Ridiculous and inaccurate rant from O'Leary. The man really is a joke.

"Don Poli has run three times this year, all in Grade 1s – it's not like we were running him over hurdles – and was pulled up, then beaten by a 160-rated horse at Down Royal, then beaten by a 160-rated handicapper at Leopardstown."

Jesus, he doesn't even know the season his own horse had. What an absolute clown. He was pulled up at Down Royal. Then he ran twice at Leopardstown, both in Grade 1s and placed both times, in the first finishing ahead of Djakadam (168) and plenty of other Grade 1 winners behind across the two races.

Everyone knows that stamina is a strong point of the horse, so it's no surprise to see the handicapper isn't being too lenient when giving him a mark for the national.

"If he'd beaten both of those by 15 lengths would Phil Smith still be running him off his 12-month-old UK handicap mark? Of course he wouldn't."

No he wouldn't. He's looked at the races run by Don Poli this season and left his UK handicap mark unchanged at 165. Seems fair to me, unless the argument is that the Irish 3m chasing scene is so indescribably weak that being placed in the two biggest 3m chases of the season is a reason to drop a horse?

"If Phil Smith tells us what the rules are, we won't waste our time entering good horses. If Don Poli had had a reasonable handicap mark, been compressed down 4-5-6lb off his Irish mark, over four and a quarter miles you might consider it, but he is clearly going nowhere."

His Irish mark is completely irrelevant, as it is for any handicap in the UK. He is compressed (a little) off his official UK mark. How hard is this to understand?

"His justification for this is, 'I notice the bookies have him as favourite, they are usually pretty shrewd, they obviously don't think he's hard done by''. So that's how you run your handicapping system is it, based on what some ante-post spivs think? He is clearly talking utter drivel."

No, he's making the obvious point that bookies and punters appear to think 163 is a fair mark for Don Poli in the Grand National and have priced him accordingly. Again, is O'Leary too dumb to understand this? It seems totally obvious to me.

"If you're going to change the rules where you're no longer going to compress the weights for the good horses but increase them because they're Irish entries, then fine. If you don't want us to enter we won't enter the good horses."

Newsflash - if Gigginstown never entered a horse for the grand national again 95% of people who engage with the race wouldn't even notice. For a tiny number of actual fans of the sport it will be a shame not to see Don Poli take up his entry but as threats go this is laughable.

Johner

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRtdVf7VNHg

Francie Barrett

Look - the record of the national stands to itself. For a horse at top weight, or very close to it, you need a very special type of animal to win. Many Clouds was a special horse that won two very big handicap races going into the 2015 race, yet it was rated less than O'Leary's trio. I think O'Leary is perfectly entitled to have a go at Phil Smith.

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Look - the record of the national stands to itself. For a horse at top weight, or very close to it, you need a very special type of animal to win. Many Clouds was a special horse that won two very big handicap races going into the 2015 race, yet it was rated less than O'Leary's trio. I think O'Leary is perfectly entitled to have a go at Phil Smith.

Many Clouds was given a mark of 165 for last year's Grand National, Don Poli has been given a mark of 163 for this years.

Don Poli is a better horse than Many Clouds. He has won 3 Grade 1 chases, Many Clouds won zero. Would anyone seriously argue that he isn't a better horse?

I find O'Leary's bullying of a man doing his job to be pretty unpleasant, particularly as almost everything he says is not true. Note that Gordon Elliot's immediate reaction was that it was a fair weight for Don Poli and he was full steam ahead. Then O'Leary starts moaning and spouting nonsense and suddenly there's some problem with the system and all the horses are being pulled out. It's just childish.

Francie Barrett

Deleted User wrote: »

Many Clouds was given a mark of 165 for last year's Grand National, Don Poli has been given a mark of 163 for this years.

I was referring to the 2015 season when Many Clouds won the National.

Deleted User wrote: »

Don Poli is a better horse than Many Clouds. He has won 3 Grade 1 chases, Many Clouds won zero. Would anyone seriously argue that he isn't a better horse?

You can only go by recent form, Don Poli has ran in many G1 races and been well beaten, I don't think you can say it's because it's been a non trier.

Copper_pipe

Few that have Grand National Entries have entries for the Bobbyjo chase at the weekend.

Copper_pipe

Had a few quid on Pleasant Company @ 50/1 on Bet 365

Copper_pipe

Copper_pipe wrote: »

The weights are out following a ceremony this evening.

I've put all the details into this google sheet along with Bet365 odds. Bet365 paying 5 places ew @ 1/4 odds already.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_dZrDgbkV8ZOGvmd8-t3gJVRTveqqgU-H3WXm-XgkPY/edit#gid=0

Outlander top weight but he won't be going :rolleyes:


Odds are correct as of 22:20 on Valentines Day 2017 :cool:

Added a new tab to the above link, "Updated 1st March"

95 entries remain after February 28 scratchings deadline 26 Irish-trained
THE FOLLOWING 15 HORSES HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT: OUTLANDER (IRE), CHAMPAGNE WEST (IRE), EMPIRE OF DIRT (IRE), DON POLI (IRE), DEVILS BRIDE (IRE), CLARCAM (FR), TIGER ROLL (IRE), A TOI PHIL (FR), THE GAME CHANGER (IRE), TRIOLO D'ALENE (FR), VIEUX MORVAN (FR), GALLANT OSCAR (IRE), TOUR DES CHAMPS (FR), DROMNEA (IRE), OTAGO TRAIL (IRE)

Copper_pipe

Bet365 now NRNB for the Aintree Grand National.

prettyboy81

Minella Rocco has been withdrawn along with Shutthefrontdoor.

Nulty

Cause Of Cause
Vicente
Rogue Angel

I'm in the Vicente camp too. Have had a little ew @ 33-1

NaiveMelodies

Adding Measureofmydreams at 66s NRNB to my Highland Lodge bet.

Form from last season makes him out to be as well, if not better, handicapped than VLR and the aforementioned Vicente off 146.
The form of that 4 miler couldn't have worked out better with this years gold cup 2nd and 3rd 7 lengths ahead of my pick.
Was staying on nicely up the hill last week before being basically brought to a halt by a faller( would have made top 6/7).

JP Liz V1

Going with e/w bet on Stellar Notion at 34 to 1

Copper_pipe

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Had a few quid on Pleasant Company @ 50/1 on Bet 365

Laid the place for my stake as mentioned on another thread so basically a free bet now.

Then I saw this :(

Harry Angstrom

Virtual Grand National on ITV4 at 8pm.

Francie Barrett

Two of my darts have landed on Lord Windermere at 50/1 and Raz De Maree at 40/1. Lord Windermere undoubtedly a very proven horse, very lightly raced for its age, carrying a handy enough weight, has a decent chasing jockey onboard and will be 100% ready for this race. I like Raz De Maree as well, but not as much, has nice recent form, will relish the trip and should have no problem with good or soft ground. It's age not exactly promising.

Francie Barrett

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Virtual Grand National on ITV4 at 8pm.

What a joke - I guarantee you Stellar Notion will not be falling at the first. When has a Henry horse ever done that?!

Massimo Tara

Cause of causes will go off favourite now!

WickIow Brave

Ruby has given that an absolute shocker there!

Massimo Tara

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Ruby has given that an absolute shocker there!

Surprised he didn't fall at the last

Slattsy

I've backed 5 e/w using the Bet365 offer which is great value.

All 5 Gigginstown horses (can make strong cases for each)

sdoc13

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Two of my darts have landed on Lord Windermere at 50/1 and Raz De Maree at 40/1. Lord Windermere undoubtedly a very proven horse, very lightly raced for its age, carrying a handy enough weight, has a decent chasing jockey onboard and will be 100% ready for this race. I like Raz De Maree as well, but not as much, has nice recent form, will relish the trip and should have no problem with good or soft ground. It's age not exactly promising.

Agree on LM. Great value at 50s.
That Bet 365 offer is unreal. Great value.
Backed Bishops road, Measureofmydreams, Wounded Warrior and Stellar Notion.

4068ac1elhodqr

Faller Insurance, appears now to be available with certain books.
e.g. 4pl (if doing e/w) and slightly reduced odds, average 20% less.

kksaints

Have gone for Le Mercurey (Has some decent form with Many Clouds and Native River this season) Doctor Harper (Recent form is a bit mixed but has run some good races in the past and should stay) and Blaklion ( Has won on good before and looks laid out for this). All each way.

Copper_pipe

The Grand National at 5:15 is the one we’ve all been waiting for. Everyone loves a good punt in this race and hopefully I can find one or two that will give you a good run for your money. The trends can prove profitable to follow in this race. Every winner since 1946 has been between 8 and 12. That stat should rule out Le Mercury, Double Shuffle and Shantou Flyer who are all seven year olds. 9,10 and 11 year olds have won 9 of the last 10. It appears in recent times that 8 year olds are also too young to win this race and 12 year olds are too old. 7 of the last 8 winners were rated higher than 143. It seems as if the cream rises to the top in this race. Weight has not been much of a factor in recent years, Many Clouds won off of top weight a couple of years back. Trends also suggest you need a guaranteed jumper and a proven stayer. The Last Samuri ran a very gallant race in this last year when 2nd behind Rule the World. He is sure to be bang there yet again but he’ll find this much tougher off a mark 12lb higher than last year. The current favourite Vieux En Rouge was very impressive when winning the trial for this race earlier in the season. He comes here in top form but he was beaten a very long ways in this last year off a much lower mark.

A lot of these would have a tremendous chance if they came back to their old form. More of That, Lord Windermere and Wounded Warrior would all come under that category. More of That beat Annie Power in the Stayers Hurdle once but he just has not seemed to be the same horse over fences. He was travelling well in the Irish Gold Cup last time out but he unseated 2 out. Hard to tell if he would have gone close that day but it was a small sign of a revival. I think he’ll run a good race given a clear round but he could be found wanting at the finish. Lord Windermere won the Gold Cup a few years back but he has lost his form completely since. There’s no doubt he’ll see this trip out but it’s more of a question if he has the ability anymore. Same can be said for Wounded Warrior.

Vicente, Definitely Red and One For Arthur are all up and coming 8 year olds. All are guaranteed stayers and have a live chance. Vicente won the Scottish National last year and has a nice weight today. The trends suggest that they may come up a bit short though based on their age. Raz De Maree and Blacklion ran nice races in the Welsh National earlier in the season. Raz De Maree will stay the trip no doubt but I just question if he has what it takes to win this at the age of 12. Blacklion was a very talented novice chaser last year and he won the Grade 1 RSA at the Cheltenham festival. He’s run some nice races this year in trials for this race. His jockey said he wouldn’t swap this one for any other horse. His trainer has won this race multiple times in the past and he thinks this one is right up there with the best of his winners. Trends suggest he might be on the young side to win this at age 8 but I can see him making the frame.

Cause of Causes was 8th in this race 2 years ago off a 4lb higher mark. He’s won at the Cheltenham festival for the past 3 years. He won the Cross Country Chase at this years festival. He has never followed up those wins with good runs though. He is sure to give Jamie Codd a great 1st ride in this race but I think he’ll come up short. There are classier types in this race.

The three horses I like for this race are Pleasant Company, Rogue Angel and Ucello Conti. Rogue Angel won the Irish Grand National last year in some style. He battled all the way to the line and never gave in. He lost his way since but his last two runs have been much better including a 5th in the Thyestes Chase which can be a good trial for this. He’s only a few pound higher than his Irish National win and his trainer won this race last year. Word is his trainer thinks this one has a great chance also. Ucello Conti was a fancy of mine for the race last year and he ran a belter in 6th position. I felt he was a year too young last year for the race and his trainer reckons that he’ll be much better on his 2nd try now as a 9 year old which I believe is the ideal age for a horse in this. He’s run very well in his trials this season including over these fences in the Becher Chase. He’s on the same mark as last year when 6th but I believe he’s a better horse this year. Gordon Elliott won this race in the past and I think this one gives him a really strong chance to win another.

Pleasant Company is the one I’m all over for this race though. I’ve always thought this horse would be a National Contender. I’m on at very long odds from back at the start of the season. He won a really good chase at the Punchestown festival at the backend of last season when trying 3 mile for the first time. He ran a great race when 4th in the Thyestes which is a good trial for this. There wasn’t much between he and Rogue Angel that day. Pleasant Company was given a really nice racing weight for this race back in January and he came out and won really nicely in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse so he’s a few pounds well in today. That race is another great trial for this and this horse was given the ride of the year by Ruby Walsh that day. He played the waiting tactics to a tee that day and he won cozily from Thunder and Roses who is also in the field today. This horse has been Willie Mullins main hope for this race for some time and didn’t bother enter anything else. Ruby is a multiple winner of this race and I think he has the right horse for the race. Looked like this trip will really suit based on his last run. I think Willie Mullins has kept this horse’s mark low on purpose for years with this race in mind. He’s the perfect age at 9 and I think Ruby will ride a perfectly patient race on this one. Given a clear round I can see this one swinging off the bridle as they turn for him. I’ve not been as sweet on a horse for the national since Numbersixvalverde won this race.

Most firms pay 6 places, PLEASANT COMPANY is my main bet for this race but I also like the chances of ROGUE ANGEL and UCELLO CONTI all each way.

Lucy8080

"More Of That".

This horse has a handicap of 157 going into the National. It's highest handicap rating was 172.

IT has had a wind operation which the owners /stable feel has sorted out it's problems.

Best price on offer right now-14/1.

finglashoop

Perfect candidate 50s

Thunder and roses 33s for me

uxiant

In the Grand National I might as well have a few with 365 considering they give you half your stake back. Generally looking for a horse that attacks their fences and looks to relish jumping as they're the ones who are likely to take to the test. Rogue Angel fits the bill and stays so that's one. Highland Lodge also looks a good bet for the same reasons. The other two I like are not definite stayers but Double Shuffle is a fine jumper and has improved with increasing tests of stamina this season. If anything he looks like he could do with further after staying last time at Kempton after blundering 3 out. Stellar Notion is a lovely big horse that should relish the fences and the good ground should help him like Double Shuffle with the trip and both of those look sure to give you a run for your money at least.

Massimo Tara

Vicente 20/1
Thunder and roses 33/1
Pleasant company- you've convinced me with this one copper.

Good luck lads I just hope one of mine is thereabouts till the end so I can enjoy the rush

byronbay2

14/1 the field now! Make sure to get your bets on in the next couple of hours or prepare to be shafted this afternoon! I predict lots of "huge gambles" (but no "big drifters") from 3pm.

Mad_Dave

Couple of small bets just for the interest

Blaklion - win
Saint Are, Vicente, Ucello Conti - e/w

Hopefully one will be there or there abouts come the end.