Scotland vs Ireland, 4th Feb 2017, Murrayfield, 2:25, RTÉ 2

Losty Dublin

Scotland versus Ireland; BT Murrayfield, Kick off 2:25PM. Live TV on RTE 2 from 1:30 and BBC 1 from 2PM. HD where available. Live radio on BBC 5Live Extra, BBC Radio Ulster and RTE Radio 1.

So this is it.

12 months. 12 long months comes to an end at 2:25PM in a field in Scotland, in a field in Edinburgh that is a long way from home.

But truth be known the wait is a lot longer for some of us. It comes with more than a penalty and a life’s efforts.

Those training sessions after school; those laps of the pitch and sit ups and tackle drills; those early Saturday mornings going back into school when everybody else was lying in bed,.

Those evenings bringing red carded teammates to disciplinary meetings.

Those days at the gym; those chicken breasts, the pasta lunches, those protein shakes, those pasta boxes.

Those wet Saturdays, those wet Sunday’s, those heavy defeats, those narrow wins.

Those mornings standing watching your son instead of getting the shopping and seeing Gran or attending to your other three children.

Those days when you'd close your eyes and hear Bill McClaren, the true voice of rugby, calling the game.

Those Sunday trips to far flung provincial clubs, those referee meetings, those long drives home.

Those missed dates, those missed parties, those missed nights out for fear or not playing tomorrow.

Those mornings at your local pitch putting out cones and filling water bottles for the Mini’s and kissing better bruised egos; those lifts to blitzes, chasing parents for subs, pumping size 3 balls, those trays of buns to sell afterwards.

Those evenings in your club house; those committee meetings, those money boxes, those washed jerseys and changing rooms after training; those nights volunteering behind the club bar.

Those 2 hours before games marking out the pitch, erecting flags and wrapping the goal posts, running out with the first aid kit, taking in the posts, putting them all away.

Those club raffles, those team dinners, those trays of sandwiches you made for after the game, those debenture tickets that you hid from the wife.

Those memories. Those BOD hat tricks, those Ringland tries, those Moss Keane tackles, those wallopings in Parc de Prince, those missed tackles in 1991 after Hamilton scored; those shattered dreams.

Those away trips, those hangovers, those singalongs, those tall tales.


Those 3 months off work after yet another injury, the agony of waiting to play again; those painkillers to get you by for one more game, those tubes of Deep Heat, those ice baths; those players who end up injuring themselves to the point that they never play again.


All of us have given to the game here; some more than and some less than others. And yet for all that we’ve given so too have todays starting 15; it gives back maybe a bit more. And for what we gave to rugby the Six Nations gives back tenfold to us this Saturday.

To you .

To me.

To rugby.

To Ireland. Shoulder to shoulder.

To us.



Introduction.

Both teams are coming into this game on the back of an excellent Autumn series. In Ireland’s case the victory over New Zealand in Chicago was topped with a well deserved victory at home to Australia. In Scotland’s case, another close run defeat to Australia was a highlight of Vern Cotter’s tenure as coach. As well, both nations have clubs who are performing well, thus making for a healthier player profile as well.

So the teams…..


Analysis. Ireland’s biggest news is the non availability of out half Jonathan Sexton. While this is undoubtedly a downer it needs to be borne in mind that he has been injury prone in the last 2 years and has missed a lot of playing time. Accordingly, his absence is not as much of a shock to the Irish team as one would casually assume it to be.

A potential weakness is the Irish full back line. The presence of Zebo on the wing is a plus for Rob Kearney, who has missed a lot of game time in the last year and for the NZ test, was almost looked upon as a last resort for the 15 jersey. His match sharpness could be an issue and he is likely to be tested by fly half Finn Russell’s (below) short kicks. The hosts boast a strong back division with Greg Laidlow captaining from scrum hall, Stuart Hogg at the middle of a strong full back and Super 16 Huw Jones at outside centre. Their bench is a little less convincing though; Mark Bennett is no Tommy Bowe.

In the pack, credence needs to be given to the fact that Ian Henderson (Below) is preferred to Donnacha Ryan in the second row. This and how Sean O’Brien has been given the nod as well suggests a loose fast game around the park, one even that may push the home pack around at the breakdown. At the set piece the Grey brothers offer good ball and push while tight head Zander Ferguson will battle hard with Jack McGrath at the tight. There will be pressure on hooker Fraser Brown; any slip ups and Scotland will be punished.

Verdict. Scotland have really done well since 2013. They have played some excellent ball under Cotter but the fact that they can’t/won’t hold onto him is a kiss of death to their long term future. They are also living off the Glasgow factor or perhaps Glasgow living off of the Cotter Factor: who knows for sure but they both feed off of each other. Ireland have better depth and flair to call on, especially off the bench and we all know how crucial that is in the modern game. This should be plenty to wing it for the visitors but in a hard won way. I say an Ireland win in the 28-20 region, some Zebo magic and for a lack of atmosphere that not even this guy can chase away…



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFPLk5mJ1D4

sydthebeat

Nice thread to start to this competition !
Couple of ropey spellings of some Scots but they're weird anyways.

Come on ireland!

Ireland by 10 in my eyes

razorblunt

2:25pm kick off.

2:28pm first chorus of Scottish boos as they get penalised against, claiming it's wrong that the Gray brothers were called for going off their feet, as they're on the backs on top of each other.

Boos to continure for 37 minuts until the half time sing song ensure, where the locals give it "laldy", dies down for the start of the second half.

errlloyd

Great preview to the tournament.

My only point is I think you're harsh on Mark Bennett. Olympic silver medalist in 7s, part of a good Glasgow team. It's many a year since Marcus Di Rollo and Nick De Luca were Scotland best options.

wittycynic

I worry about their lineout's ability to disrupt ours, but I think we should expect dominance in the scrum.

The real threat of this Irish team lies in our pack, which should he considered the best in the championship. If we are to beat them we will have to expect the liked of Furlong, Henderson, and our back row to carry a lot of ball. Unfortunately we've seen little from our backs to suggest they have the cutting edge to break defences down, so we'll be reliant on our forwards to win this one.

sydthebeat

wittycynic wrote: »

Unfortunately we've seen little from our backs to suggest they have the cutting edge to break defences down, so we'll be reliant on our forwards to win this one.

What a very strange statement.

Go back and look at the November internationals and see how creative and clinical our backs were.

errlloyd

sydthebeat wrote: »

What a very strange statement.

Go back and look at the November internationals and see how creative and clinical our backs were.

Like the one time AGES ago where we scored 40 points against the All Blacks for only the 5th time in history?

CMOTDibbler

wittycynic wrote: »

I worry about their lineout's ability to disrupt ours, but I think we should expect dominance in the scrum.

The real threat of this Irish team lies in our pack, which should he considered the best in the championship. If we are to beat them we will have to expect the liked of Furlong, Henderson, and our back row to carry a lot of ball. Unfortunately we've seen little from our backs to suggest they have the cutting edge to break defences down, so we'll be reliant on our forwards to win this one.

Hmmm...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zc5G2Js_c0M

kuang1

Only one more sleep...
And I'm gonna need alcohol to get any tonight I reckon.

Akrasia

kuang1 wrote: »

Only one more sleep...
And I'm gonna need alcohol to get any tonight I reckon.

Munster v Edinburgh and a few nightcaps afterwards

Former Former

We often put our failures down to injury (and with some justification), but we're only missing two definite and one probable starters, plus one bench player. Sexton is a loss but if Jackson isn't ready for this level now he never will be. Payne's absence robs us of a lot of leadership and defensive cohesion but Ringrose should give us more of a cutting edge. Trimble vs Zebo is much of a muchness.

TL:DR version - no excuses, we should win this.

thomond2006

Zander Fagerson only turned 21 last month. I'd like to think McGrath can get the upper hand!

Rightwing

Hope Joe isn't too conservative. Scots are very beatable.

But I suspect it will be Irlsh brawn, with 30+ box kicks thrown in, v Scottish flair.

irishbucsfan

thomond2006 wrote: »

Zander Fagerson only turned 21 last month. I'd like to think McGrath can get the upper hand!

Very talented guy with serious power behind him. Wouldn't give the edge either way.

thomond2006

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Very talented guy with serious power behind him. Wouldn't give the edge either way.

Yeah he's got to be good to be selected so young at this level.

Diabhal Beag

Anybody going over: where are ye watching the England-France match?

wittycynic

errlloyd wrote: »

Like the one time AGES ago where we scored 40 points against the All Blacks for only the 5th time in history?

And which of the five tries we scored in that game do you consider to have been created by our backline attack opening up holes in the New Zealand defence? With the exception Murray's skip through, they were all created by our pack sucking in opposing players.

I presume you also forgot the second test in Dublin where, despite our forwards giving us a pretty dominant platform and lots of possession, our backline seemed incapable of actually converting that into scores.

I don't think I'm saying anything majorly controversial here. No major rugby nation is going to look at our backline with fear in their eyes. With Sexton out, Murray is the only top class operator there from 9 to 15 and I don't think there's any recent evidence to suggest that our backline is going to start carving open opposition defences.

Peregrine

Rightwing wrote: »

But I suspect it will be Irlsh brawn, with 30+ box kicks thrown in, v Scottish flair.

I don't think we'll see that many box kicks. They'd need to be very accurate and the kick chase needs to be effective or it's a recipe for disaster.

thomond2006

I don't see an issue with box kicks as we know they can be executed correctly by Ireland. It would certainly be good if Ireland put Stuart Hogg under pressure early and try to knock his confidence. The weather forecast has light rain in Edinburgh all morning in the leadup to the match.

The Scottish pundits are really selling the match as massive for Scotland. To prove they are legit they need to win etc. They haven't won their Six Nations opener for years and are therefore out of contention before the tournament really gets going.

errlloyd

thomond2006 wrote: »

I don't see an issue with box kicks as we know they can be executed correctly by Ireland.

Have you ever read your own signature?

thomond2006

errlloyd wrote: »

Have you ever read your own signature?

I have indeed. My peeve with box kicks is with teams who execute them who are incapable of doing so.

dub_skav

wittycynic wrote: »

With Sexton out, Murray is the only top class operator there from 9 to 15

MattD

dub_skav wrote: »

I'd really include Zebo in the top class operator bracket as well. He just keeps improving and adding factors to his play. He seems to have a lot of people outside of Ireland who think the same too after his performances against NZ and for Munster in the Champions Cup.

I expect him to have a very good tournament and be used a lot on the Lions tour.

willit

I think we have a very talented set of backs on the pitch. In Henshaw and Ringrose we have so much potential and already existing talent that any team will swallow hard at the prospect of facing them. Earls is a proven poacher with the best eye for the tryline a green jersey has had in years. Zebo has it all in my opinion and has improved immeasurably in the last few years, just look at some of the tries he has scored in red this year alone. Kearney is coming to the end but in fairness he has produced some sublime rugby in recent times, Chicago barring a few missed tackles for one. An argument could be made for TOH but not so compelling as to spark outrage for RK starting. Couple that with the coaching of Joe and his team and I think that's 5 guys who can truly win a game.

Now, the forwards, is it the best front 8 we've ever put out on a pitch? I would have started D Ryan if he had been fit, but in the interest of the future, Hendo is the man and certainly deserves his place on merit. My only concern is the lineout where POM will be sorely missed but his absence is really only felt there. Big chance for big Dev to pit his wits and skill set against the similarly sized Grey boys, with an eye on a certain tour in the summer. The Baal carriers available number no less than 5 who could be considered world class in that area. Best, Seanie and Heaslip are excellent at defensive ruck and poaching time. The scrum should annihilate the Scots and our forwards on the bench bring no big drop off in ability. Sorted there.

Finally, the half backs. I personally think Murray is the best 9 in the world and excels in all facets of scrum half play. His experience in the Lions 4 years ago really seemed to kick him on and he has just kept on improving since to the point where I believe he is more vital to us now than even Sexton. Paddy J is a more than capable out half and that, coupled with the 9 inside him and the 12 outside him mean he should be in for a really successful day at the office. Unfortunately for us, the backs that we have on the bench are all substantially weaker than anyone they would be replacing so any early injuries there could have a big impact.

So there you go, I'm obviously optimistic about our chances here. I'm going with Ireland to win by more than 10 points. I do think that this Scottish team is stronger than they've had in a long time and Cotter is a really good coach but if I didn't think that I would have given us a much bigger margin. Perhaps my confidence comes from cheering Munster to 3 wins from 3 against Glasgow this year and this is a different scenario entirely but what the hell. Ireland for the slam.

TL/DR Ireland are great and to win by 10+

PTH2009

Play like we did in Chicago and Dublin last november and we will win 2morrow but It's not going to be easy, Scotland will give it there all

Wins for England and Wales dis weekend too

Losty Dublin

Akrasia wrote: »

Munster v Edinburgh and a few nightcaps afterwards

The women's game is on at half Six and the 20's at half 8. Both on RTE2. Loads of rugby!

errlloyd

MattD wrote: »

I'd really include Zebo in the top class operator bracket as well. He just keeps improving and adding factors to his play. He seems to have a lot of people outside of Ireland who think the same too after his performances against NZ and for Munster in the Champions Cup.

I expect him to have a very good tournament and be used a lot on the Lions tour.

And perhaps Garry Ringrose.

Mahatma Geansai

errlloyd wrote: »

And perhaps Garry Ringrose.

Ringrose isn't in the top class bracket. He has the ability to get there, but he's not there yet.

Digifriendly

Mahatma Geansai wrote: »

Ringrose isn't in the top class bracket. He has the ability to get there, but he's not there yet.

IMHO if Simon Zebo is in the top class bracket so is Gary Ringrose and Ireland are very fortunate to have both on the team tomorrow. Both could make the BI Lions if they perform to their best in next 6 weeks.

aloooof

Digifriendly wrote: »

IMHO if Simon Zebo is in the top class bracket so is Gary Ringrose and Ireland are very fortunate to have both on the team tomorrow. Both could make the BI Lions if they perform to their best in next 6 weeks.

Strongly disagree. Zebo has done it over a far more sustained period than Ringrose. Ringrose definitely has the ability to get there, but lets not forget 2moro is his first 6 Nations start.

wittycynic

MattD wrote: »

I'd really include Zebo in the top class operator bracket as well. He just keeps improving and adding factors to his play. He seems to have a lot of people outside of Ireland who think the same too after his performances against NZ and for Munster in the Champions Cup.

I expect him to have a very good tournament and be used a lot on the Lions tour.

When I use the term "top class operator" I use it to mean someone who is arguably the best in their position in the world. I don't think we coud reasonably say that Jackson, Henshaw, Ringrose, Zebo, Earls, or Kearney would be realistically considered amongst the very best in the world in their positions. Of those, Zebo probably comes the closest, but I neverthless wouldn't consider him to be one of the top three or four wingers in the world, even if he is excellent.

That's not to say I think there are much better options out there than the ones we've picked, but we are a far cry from the attacking potency of the backline we had in 2009. ROG, Dorce, BOD, Fitzgerald, Bowe, and Kearney in his prime. That was a unit that could open teams up. I just think we should be a little more modest about our attacking ability from 10 outwards because it is not world beating by any stretch of the imagination. Our present strength lies in our pack.

Rightwing

Peregrine wrote: »

I don't think we'll see that many box kicks. They'd need to be very accurate and the kick chase needs to be effective or it's a recipe for disaster.

I don't think Scots are up to much, a defeat in region of 1-10 points would be a moral victory for them. Far more important for us to get a win, not to fall at the first GS hurdle.

Buer

wittycynic wrote: »

That's not to say I think there are much better options out there than the ones we've picked, but we are a far cry from the attacking potency of the backline we had in 2009. ROG, Dorce, BOD, Fitzgerald, Bowe, and Kearney in his prime. That was a unit that could open teams up. I just think we should be a little more modest about our attacking ability from 10 outwards because it is not world beating by any stretch of the imagination. Our present strength lies in our pack.

Whatever about the talent in the backline in 2009, they most certainly did not open teams up. 12 tries, 5 of which came against Italy including two intercept tries.

We lived off the pack and a wonderful set piece. They won us that title.

sweetthing

PTH2009 wrote: »

Play like we did in Chicago and Dublin last november and we will win 2morrow but It's not going to be easy, Scotland will give it there all

Wins for England and Wales dis weekend too

We won't Play as well as we did against The all Blacks, that Was a once-in-a-generation Styles performance,but we won't need to. Scotland are of course several rungs below The NZ. Our beast of a pack should be able to control The game. Scotland have a few very dangerous Runners, but if we Boss them around upfront we should win handily enough

Clegg

wittycynic wrote: »

When I use the term "top class operator" I use it to mean someone who is arguably the best in their position in the world. I don't think we coud reasonably say that Jackson, Henshaw, Ringrose, Zebo, Earls, or Kearney would be realistically considered amongst the very best in the world in their positions. Of those, Zebo probably comes the closest, but I neverthless wouldn't consider him to be one of the top three or four wingers in the world, even if he is excellent.

That's not to say I think there are much better options out there than the ones we've picked, but we are a far cry from the attacking potency of the backline we had in 2009. ROG, Dorce, BOD, Fitzgerald, Bowe, and Kearney in his prime. That was a unit that could open teams up. I just think we should be a little more modest about our attacking ability from 10 outwards because it is not world beating by any stretch of the imagination. Our present strength lies in our pack.

I think it's very reasonable to say Henshaw is one of the best 12's in world rugby. His performances over the last 18 months have been excellent.

Stheno

Can someone remind me what we need to get bonus points in the 6N?

TIA

Pudsy33

Stheno wrote: »

Can someone remind me what we need to get bonus points in the 6N?

TIA

4 tries or lose by less than 7 points.

CMOTDibbler

Pudsy33 wrote: »

4 tries or lose by less than 7 points.

Is it not losing by seven points or less? As in losing by seven points gets you a losing bonus point.

awec

That's correct.

CMOTDibbler

Clegg wrote: »

I think it's very reasonable to say Henshaw is one of the best 12's in world rugby. His performances over the last 18 months have been excellent.

I know it's not a world class endorsement, but Henshaw's been on pretty much every potential Lions team I've seen.

awec

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

I know it's not a world class endorsement, but Henshaw's been on pretty much every potential Lions team I've seen.

Henshaw is probably the most likely of our outside backs to go on the tour. I think he's close to being a certainty whereas the rest are mere hopefuls.

Utopia Parkway

Kenny Logan is confident anyway.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2017/02/03/scotland-have-best-team-since-1999-will-beat-ireland-saturday/

kuang1

Utopia Parkway wrote: »

Kenny Logan is confident anyway.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2017/02/03/scotland-have-best-team-since-1999-will-beat-ireland-saturday/

There'll be an article like this every year. As sure as PTH2009 gets worried by Italy.

Kenny Logan is betraying a little ignorance of the Irish set up though if he considers POM a loss to our current set up as worthy of a headline.
Headline should read "One of Ireland's possible number 20s out for Scottish game".

CMOTDibbler

Utopia Parkway wrote: »

Kenny Logan is confident anyway.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2017/02/03/scotland-have-best-team-since-1999-will-beat-ireland-saturday/

#Ireland #UnderDogs

dub_skav

Utopia Parkway wrote: »

Kenny Logan is confident anyway.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2017/02/03/scotland-have-best-team-since-1999-will-beat-ireland-saturday/

I think this is a more fitting input from Logan.

Rightwing

kuang1 wrote: »

There'll be an article like this every year. As sure as PTH2009 gets worried by Italy.

Kenny Logan is betraying a little ignorance of the Irish set up though if he considers POM a loss to our current set up as worthy of a headline.
Headline should read "One of Ireland's possible number 20s out for Scottish game".

I can see where he is coming from, as Munster smashed Glasgow (they provide the bulk of Scottish players) in Europe for 9 points, with Glasgow somehow getting a lucky losing bonus point. But our pack still looks like it has the winning of this game.

pickarooney

kuang1 wrote: »

There'll be an article like this every year. As sure as PTH2009 gets worried by Italy.

Kenny Logan is betraying a little ignorance of the Irish set up though if he considers POM a loss to our current set up as worthy of a headline.
Headline should read "One of Ireland's possible number 20s out for Scottish game".

He's being a little footloose with the truth.

swiwi_

Pudsy33 wrote: »

4 tries or lose by less than 7 points.

Or to be pedantic you can also score 4 tries and lose by 7 points or less. Then 2 BP if I'm not mistaken.

Teferi

Every year for the past 10+ years from pundits - "big year for Scotland, dark horses etc.". Eventually they'll be right because they say the same thing every year.

wittycynic

Teferi wrote: »

Every year for the past 10+ years from pundits - "big year for Scotland, dark horses etc.". Eventually they'll be right because they say the same thing every year.

Well I doubt this will be their big year, as they've to go to England and France, places where they've managed just two and four wins respectively in the last 50 years.

Peregrine

Every year is Scotland's year.

Until it's not.