What will the legacy of the running boom be?

Myles Splitz

This will probably bring the trolls/professionally offended out of the woodwork but it stems from comments made in another thread and got me thinking about once the bubble bursts what will the sport be left with?

- Higher participation rates?
- Greater depths in running standards?
- Inflated prices of races? (insurance, road closures, all the bells and whistles)
- Greater prize money races? Less prize money
- Less high quality races that fell by the wayside?
- None of the above

I was thinking and trying to come up with an answer of whether or not the sport as a whole will be better off after this running boom than they were before?

RacoonQueen

Assuming you didn't mean to put this into the training logs

Myles Splitz

RacoonQueen wrote: »

Assuming you didn't mean to put this into the training logs

Ha yup spotted it and edited as it was moved my bad can delete other thread

murphyebass

Sore knees

...mine included

RayCun

I'll take the optimistic view.

The end of the running boom means fewer people starting running each year, and the people who run six months of the year will do something else to keep fit.

So there will be a higher percentage of people who are training all the time and have been around a little longer , and are less interested in gimmick races.

People will stay in clubs because of the social element, even if the number of new people joining drops off.

robinph

We'll just carry on as before, then in 20 years time during the next massive recession there will be another running boom.

endacl

A slightly healthier population?

ger664

the one good thing to come from this running boom which will last is parkrun.

annapr

ger664 wrote: »

the one good thing to come from this running boom which will last is parkrun.

I hope you're right, but that remains to be seen. parkrun is booming too, but has only been in ireland for about 4 years. It will eventually peak...

tang1

TbL!!!!!

RacoonQueen

How good has the running boom actually been for the sport? I know clubs have seen an increase in members but what have those members, in general, contributed to their clubs? How do we measure this? I know from experience, many people joining clubs are just there to take and have no interest in giving back to the sport. If they do do anything for the club, they do it begrudgingly and it falls to the same people over and over again.
A good question tunney asked someone who came on here looking for which tri club was best to join back when we were all one, has stuck with me.
"What can you offer to clubs you're thinking of joining?" (well it was something along those lines)

Participation levels went up in long distance. Did they up in track and field? I know the XC 'national champs' had bigger numbers this year, but did other XC races see much of the boom?

Higher participation rates, turned some great races into awful races for me - I for one think race quality will improve with a downturn, and in part it will have to as they'll need good quality races to attract numbers.

The goody bag discussion is currently ongoing over on the tri forum now also and like running, the boom is probably now on the decline...but race entries are going up (I'm priced out of a few races - 50% on principal and 50% actually priced out as I just can't justify those prices). Part of the reason for the rise on prices is to cover the goody bag which is used to attract participants. So the end of the boom could very well see the same thing happen in running, races trying to attract numbers so they throw more bells and whistles at it and have to put up prices to cover the cost.

Djoucer

The running boom has been great.

I don't see a huge increase in prices above inflation. There are the Mickey Mouse races such as rock n roll but there's great value out there. You can run a 5km every week for free. Unthinkable a few years ago.

Let's face it. Runners in Ireland never had it so good.

The idea that the boom is over? Just 3 months after the Dublin marathon sold out for the first time. Come on. There was actually a waiting list to pay €70 to run around Dublin.

RacoonQueen

Djoucer wrote: »

The idea that the boom is over? Just 3 months after the Dublin marathon sold out for the first time. Come on. There was actually a waiting list to pay €70 to run around Dublin.

Was that the running boom though or was there an huge increase in overseas entrants because of the move to Sunday for the race? I wonder what the stats are for number or overseas runners to number or domestic runners for 2016 compared to previous years.

rovers_runner

The increase in Dublin marathon entries was purely down to the switch to a Sunday, it was a fairly level number for the past number of years up until 2016.

The boom or fad for a more accurate reflection is over and the ones who were there before during and after will benefit from it.
The calendar will become less cluttered, the races run by people who love the sport will survive. The ones who love running won't notice a thing on a race day.

The parkrun has already peaked as can be seen by spring to autumn numbers for the last two years. <snip> inflates their numbers till mid February but that should be taken in isolation from rest of calendar.

Benefits:
Calendar back to normal with less profit driven races
Fad chasers have moved onto mini ironman etc.

Drawbacks:
Less volunteers drawn to sport to eventually help youth as same old people will have to cover workload.
Less young people may become involved if parents move back towards more popular sports.

Djoucer

Nonsense re record numbers was "purely" down to switch to Sunday. The people calling for an increase in numbers after it sold out were all Irish.

Did Raheny not have record numbers just last weekend? Even XC is getting big numbers.

Fact is, there is v little evidence to support that the boom is over.

On what basis are we saying the boom is over? Doesn't appear to be any evidence?

And it certainly can't be called a fad. It's hardly a short lived craze.

rovers_runner

Djoucer wrote: »

Nonsense re record numbers was "purely" down to switch to Sunday. The people calling for an increase in numbers after it sold out were all Irish.

You've answered your own question there, the race sold out due to people who wouldn't have normally entered booking their spot early as they book flights/hotels etc. It's what people who travel to races do.

Did Raheny not have record numbers just last weekend? Even XC is getting big numbers.

Raheny is the most established race in Dublin outside the marathon, and the fall in pop up races means it dominates the early year calendar, a good thing.

Fact is, there is v little evidence to support that the boom is over.
On what basis are we saying the boom is over? Doesn't appear to be any evidence?
And it certainly can't be called a fad. It's hardly a short lived craze.

The fad I refer to is how the recession or healthkick runner treats the sport, once they are gone they are not missed. I for one am glad the "running boom" is on the slide.

Would Wiggle/Elverys etc be firing off spam emails each morning into Feb if sales were high?

nhunter100

Djoucer wrote:

Nonsense re record numbers was "purely" down to switch to Sunday. The people calling for an increase in numbers after it sold out were all Irish.

The fact that the following day was a bank holiday is also a major factor.

Tramore Tilly

Wouldn't it depend on the effect the running boom is currently having on the sport? Who isn't a running boomer who could accurately comment on what the sport was like before the boom?

I'm a running boomer, though I only took it up as a keep fit /Weight loss exercise so I wasn't aware I was joining a cult as such. I can't see what effect my plodding can have on those who are proper athletes in the sport. I wouldn't say my race has any effect on the person coming first, unless I plonk myself right at the start line (or anywhere other than the back of the field) from the beginning.

I'm not sure what a gimmicky race is, though reading another thread I see something about virtual runs which is probably a massive gimmick. The only other thing I can imagine is a fun run vs a club run? I can't see what effect a fun run can have on a more serious race. Isn't it like asking what effect does the sack race on school sports day have on running as a sport? I would imagine the more serious athletes and clubs will still organise their competitions (like every other recreational sport/hobby) ?

Is racing within clubs or the more serious races on the running calendar being effected by a larger interest in the past time? If they are can't they impose cut off times to keep it more pure, if that's what the members are after?

Djoucer

Lol.

So record numbers in marathon, Raheny and park runs across the entire country but the boom is over based on a few spam emails by wiggle.

nhunter100

Djoucer wrote:

So record numbers in marathon, Raheny and park runs across the entire country but the boom is over based on a few spam emails by wiggle.

So you don't believe moving the marathon to a Sunday and the following day being a bank holiday had any effect on numbers? Just a coincidence?

Djoucer

nhunter100 wrote: »

So you don't believe moving the marathon to a Sunday and the following day being a bank holiday had any effect on numbers? Just a coincidence?

Of course. It had a huge impact. But marathon was pulling in record numbers year after year before the move. I'm just trying to see where the evidence that the boom is over? No-one has offed any yet other than a few spam emails.

Raheny or Park run didn't change their dates.

rovers_runner

Djoucer wrote: »

Lol.

So record numbers in marathon, Raheny and park runs across the entire country but the boom is over based on a few spam emails by wiggle.

So you still are unable to put 2+2 together regarding the overseas entries to the marathon. Ask Jim Aughney why don't you, I don't think he has anything to hide, plus it's why he's decided to stick with the Sunday.

This new event will start in October in the UK which mean numbers will be slightly down on 2016 for Dublin this year.
http://www.greatrun.org/birmingham-international-marathon



Parkruns <snip> this time of year, the normal weekly figures for Ireland are between 4500 and 5000 year round which has peaked.
<snip> rose that to 11000 two weeks back but it returned to normal immediately last weekend with 4800.

Can name a number large established events in Dublin which had large drops from a peak 5 years ago in 2016.
-Great Ireland Run
-Irish runner 5 mile
-Frank Duffy 10
-Aware Christmas run
-Terenure 5

Sacksian

rovers_runner wrote: »

Parkruns <snip> this time of year, the normal weekly figures for Ireland are between 4500 and 5000 year round which has peaked.
<snip> rose that to 11000 two weeks back but it returned to normal immediately last weekend with 4800.

Classy. For a forum dedicated to running, some posters here have the weirdest attitudes to people looking to participate.

Aren’t most people on this forum products of the running boom? I certainly am. Given that Ireland has been in recession since 2008, presumably everyone who took up running since then is a “recession runner”?

As far as I can see, the running boom has been good for clubs, for Irish athletics and good for society. Clubs are struggling to meet the demand for juvenile memberships. The running boom graduates in our club (i.e. adults who joined the club ‘later in life’ without a background in the sport) are responsible for a very large proportion of our club’s championship medals in the last few years. Thanks to the running boom, we’ve a thriving Fit4Life section and we’ve some great juveniles whose parents have also taken up the sport and represented the club. There’s fresh blood in the club, and on the club committees, and a lot more volunteer coaches.

Not sure what the downsides to any running boom are. I honestly think the idea of a “goody bag brigade” is a bit of a moral panic - if it wasn’t for people giving out about them on boards, I wouldn’t even be aware that they existed. I don’t see what impact they could have if all the good races are filling up and selling out? Surely, the best races will survive and thrive, regardless of running booms, and if they don’t survive, it’s unlikely to be because a few people complained about too many/not enough goodies.

The legacy of the running boom for competitive athletics depends entirely on how successful AI are in converting the growing participation (and standards) at juvenile level into the senior ranks. Clubs are struggling to meet the demand at juvenile level and are also increasing the numbers of masters involved, but that bit in between is still problematic (having a gang of friends in a training group seems to be a huge factor to this).

RayCun

On phone so can't link, but there's a graph of participants on the parkrun ie site. October 2015 weekly numbers were about 4000, a year later the average was almost 6000
(Picked October to exclude the OT bump)

robinph

RayCun wrote: »

On phone so can't link, but there's a graph of participants on the parkrun ie site. October 2015 weekly numbers were about 4000, a year later the average was almost 6000
(Picked October to exclude the OT bump)

Here is the Irish parkrun chart, which shows a massive spike in numbers for January due to the Operation Transformation events:
http://www.parkrun.ie/results/historicalchart/

The chart still fits with the same kind of growth as seen in the UK chart here though and shows no signs of slowing:
http://www.parkrun.org.uk/results/historicalchart/

RayCun

On the question of contribution to clubs
When I joined the club, it was mostly a juvenile club, and the committee was all coaches and parents. Now it is mostly adult runners (some also parents ) which means more time for coaches to coach. There is a whole new crop of coaches, all parents, but many parents who started as adult runners and got their kids involved because of that.

Cross country doesn't benefit as much from the boom because it clashes with the marathon, and so many running boomers are marathon runners.

Numbers in track and field are up. I dug out stats on numbers at nationals a while ago, and they have gone up significantly in the last ten years. So has attendance at the Dublin graded meets. Not as much as membership has increased though. Again, boomers are more often distance runners.

Gimmick races
I mean races where the selling points are medals, bands on route, a celebrity connection, etc. The more you race, the less you care about things like that

ultrapercy

There are pros and cons to everything but overwhelmingly the "boom" has been a good thinges. It might take a generation for the legacy to benifits the actual sport of athletics but for the running scene it has brought vibrancy and choice. I began racing in 1996 and where I'm based, in Mayo, there were 4 races in the year, now every Saturday there are 5 parkrun. It's not an oddity to be a runner now, our locker room at work is littered with running shoes and gear. Every lunchtime a large gang go for a run this is replicated in work places across the country. Children see their parents run and it influences them even in a subtle way that their health is important some of them will come through to compete. There are downsides of course and things I don't quite understand like goody bags and bling but each generation struggles with the culture of the one after it and progress is progress. There are downsides to social media and the smart phone culture too but does anybody suggest sidewinders in phone boxes were better. The boom may be leveling off a bit but it will not go into recession like an economic model, running is part of the fabric of life in modern society.

BeepBeep67

RayCun wrote: »

On phone so can't link, but there's a graph of participants on the parkrun ie site. October 2015 weekly numbers were about 4000, a year later the average was almost 6000
(Picked October to exclude the OT bump)

Looks like a direct correlation to the number of events 35 v 52.
To pick the 2 more established parkruns in Dublin Malahide and Marlay, they show a decline of 11% from the 1st four Sats in Oct Y/Y, 2775 v 2470.
Some of that could be cannibalization from other parkruns (not sure if other Dublin one's launched in that timeframe)

But great to see overall participation increase.

Singer

BeepBeep67 wrote: »

Looks like a direct correlation to the number of events 35 v 52.
To pick the 2 more established parkruns in Dublin Malahide and Marlay, they show a decline of 11% from the 1st four Sats in Oct Y/Y, 2775 v 2470.
Some of that could be cannibalization from other parkruns (not sure if other Dublin one's launched in that timeframe)

Both Donabate (10/10/2015) and Rivervalley (23/07/2016) are near Malahide and would have taken some regulars with them.

Murph_D

rovers_runner wrote: »

So you still are unable to put 2+2 together regarding the overseas entries to the marathon. Ask Jim Aughney why don't you, I don't think he has anything to hide, plus it's why he's decided to stick with the Sunday.

Of the 17,500 total entries in 2016, 13,849 were Irish, an increase over 2015, according to this article.

So yes, international entries were up, but so were Irish entries (although all the signs were that these were levelling off over the past few years).

According to AAI national marathon results, club runner numbers in 2016 were up to 3,809 from 2,647 in 2015, suggesting that club membership is doing quite well out of the running boom, even as it levels off.

TFBubendorfer

ultrapercy wrote: »

It's not an oddity to be a runner now

As someone who started running well before the recession/running boom I can certainly agree to that.

For years I never saw anyone else running, and for races I had to drive a couple of hours into Cork because they used to be as rare as hen's teeth in Kerry. Nowadays I could partake in a local race or parkrun every week (for a while I even used to feel guilty for not attending every single nearby race).

Of course there are drawbacks. Some "charity" races have clearly taken the mick and you're not even allowed to criticise them because it's for charity, and I really could do without those Garmin post-run snaps saturating my facebook feed but that's just whining on a high level.

The running boom might have peaked in some ways but it's still a very, very long way from returning to pre-boom state of affairs and that's a very good thing indeed.

adrian522

rovers_runner wrote: »

So you still are unable to put 2+2 together regarding the overseas entries to the marathon. Ask Jim Aughney why don't you, I don't think he has anything to hide, plus it's why he's decided to stick with the Sunday.

This new event will start in October in the UK which mean numbers will be slightly down on 2016 for Dublin this year.
http://www.greatrun.org/birmingham-international-marathon



Parkruns <snip> this time of year, the normal weekly figures for Ireland are between 4500 and 5000 year round which has peaked.
<snip> rose that to 11000 two weeks back but it returned to normal immediately last weekend with 4800.

Can name a number large established events in Dublin which had large drops from a peak 5 years ago in 2016.
-Great Ireland Run
-Irish runner 5 mile
-Frank Duffy 10
-Aware Christmas run
-Terenure 5

Terenure 5 sold out in 2016 and stopped accepting entries well before the day. Not sure where you are getting your info from?

Murph_D

adrian522 wrote: »

Terenure 5 sold out in 2016 and stopped accepting entries well before the day. Not sure where you are getting your info from?

Kellyanne Conway? :pac:

Lazare

I know you don't mean it, or maybe even realise it but there's a fair whiff of snobbery off this thread.

Kinda like those early Kings of Leon fans who resented the fact that 'their' band were playing to stadia full of bandwagoners.

ger664

tang1 wrote: »

TbL!!!!!

We cant blame the current running boom for this. He was a product of the 80's boom:P

Murph_D

ger664 wrote: »

We cant blame the current running boom for this. He was a product of the 80's boom:P

Maybe even the 70s.