UFC/MMA Log 2017

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Here I go again to try and make amends for last years losing log which was -66 after 126 bets


Bet 1

rodriguez/ansaroff double @ 2.14 (1.28+1.66)
24 (returns 51.42)
Betway

I think the 1.28 on rodriguez is free money and hopefully this time penn will stay retired
Ansaroff should have a lot of improvement in her esp with nunes on top position on a daily basis, lybarger isn't very good either

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

Here I go again to try and make amends for last years losing log which was -66 after 126 bets


Bet 1

rodriguez/ansaroff double @ 2.14 (1.28+1.66)
24 (returns 51.42)
Betway

I think the 1.28 on rodriguez is free money and hopefully this time penn will stay retired
Ansaroff should have a lot of improvement in her esp with nunes on top position on a daily basis, lybarger isn't very good either

Won
staked 24
ret 51.42
+27.42

I probably won't get a bet up any easier than this all year and hopefully
it won't be the only time this log is in profit
mc gee pts at 5/2 was the only other bet in my head so a bullet dodged, did think he would get the verdict though

Division

Looking forward to reading your thread over the year. I'm still probably 2 years away from betting MMA if at all but will be interested to read your take on certain matchups.

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BET 2

22 Jan 2017 - Chael Sonnen v Tito Ortiz - Method of Result

Chael Sonnen By Decision @ 7/4

Stake : €10.00
Hills

Bit of a farce of a match up tbh but tito is so far past it that I find it hard
to make a case for him to win by any method...sonnen is hardly in his prime either for that matter but he wouldn't knock out the cat and I doubt he subs tito either so I'll chance sonnen by pts
I don't think I'll sit through this one or rather go out of my way to look for it in the morning...it should be a classic though

22 Jan 2017 - Chael Sonnen v Tito Ortiz - Method of Result
Chael Sonnen By Decision @ 7/4
Stake : €10.00

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mailburner wrote: »

BET 2

22 Jan 2017 - Chael Sonnen v Tito Ortiz - Method of Result

Chael Sonnen By Decision @ 7/4

Stake : €10.00
Hills

Bit of a farce of a match up tbh but tito is so far past it that I find it hard
to make a case for him to win by any method...sonnen is hardly in his prime either for that matter but he wouldn't knock out the cat and I doubt he subs tito either so I'll chance sonnen by pts
I don't think I'll sit through this one or rather go out of my way to look for it in the morning...it should be a classic though

22 Jan 2017 - Chael Sonnen v Tito Ortiz - Method of Result
Chael Sonnen By Decision @ 7/4
Stake : €10.00

Lost
-10
am sorry I bothered with that one

total staked 34/ret 51.42/+17.42

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BET 3

cerrone v masvidal

Cerrone to win on pts 2/1
20

cerrone by sub 13/2
4
skybet


My thinking on this is mainly how tough masvidal is to finish, can't remember ever seeing him in any trouble and he's fought the best

It's 8 years since he was finished and has only 3 finishes in his last 19 fights but 2 of those ko's were again ferreira (no chin) and ellenberger which looked the most likely outcome given the way jake fights
I doubt cowboy finishes masvidal unless possibly by sub...of course masvidal winning this on pts a strong possibility also, just have a feeling cerrones will do that little bit more and win on pts
I think this has 3 rounds written all over it tbh and the fight going the distance was something i had originally planned on doing in a double with ngannou but it's his first big test and the price is dire

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 3

cerrone v masvidal

Cerrone to win on pts 2/1
20

cerrone by sub 13/2
4
skybet


My thinking on this is mainly how tough masvidal is to finish, can't remember ever seeing him in any trouble and he's fought the best

It's 8 years since he was finished and has only 3 finishes in his last 19 fights but 2 of those ko's were again ferreira (no chin) and ellenberger which looked the most likely outcome given the way jake fights
I doubt cowboy finishes masvidal unless possibly by sub...of course masvidal winning this on pts a strong possibility also, just have a feeling cerrones will do that little bit more and win on pts
I think this has 3 rounds written all over it tbh and the fight going the distance was something i had originally planned on doing in a double with ngannou but it's his first big test and the price is dire

couldn't have been more wrong, a very aggressive masvidal made all
the difference
-24

total staked 58/ret 51.42/-6.58

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BET 4

Grasso, Alex @ 4/11
Andrade, Jessica @ 1/4
Stake: €50.00
Est. Returns: €85.23
stan james

herrig has only one chance of winning this and that's by sub, grasso only needs to keep it standing imo
andrade a better fighter than hill as far as I can see

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BET 5

grasso
bermudez
andrade
osp
torres by dec
5 returns 23.69

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mailburner wrote: »

BET 4

Grasso, Alex @ 4/11
Andrade, Jessica @ 1/4
Stake: €50.00
Est. Returns: €85.23
stan james

herrig has only one chance of winning this and that's by sub, grasso only needs to keep it standing imo
andrade a better fighter than hill as far as I can see

mailburner wrote: »

BET 5

grasso
bermudez
andrade
osp
torres by dec
5 returns 23.69

never had any worries with andrade...herrig improved a lot but maybe I thought grasso was a lot better than that

-55

total staked 113/ret 51.42/-61.58

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BET 6

UFC Matches Ronaldo Souza v Tim Boetsch
12-02-2017 04:00
Method of Victory
Ronaldo Souza by Submission @ 10/11
UFC Matches Glover Teixeira v Jared Cannonier
12-02-2017 03:30
Match Betting
Glover Teixeira @ 4/9

Double
1 line at €20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €20.00
Potential returns: €55.15
paddy

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mailburner wrote: »

BET 6

UFC Matches Ronaldo Souza v Tim Boetsch
12-02-2017 04:00
Method of Victory
Ronaldo Souza by Submission @ 10/11
UFC Matches Glover Teixeira v Jared Cannonier
12-02-2017 03:30
Match Betting
Glover Teixeira @ 4/9

Double
1 line at €20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €20.00
Potential returns: €55.15
paddy

comfortable enough

staked 20/ret 55.15/+35.15

Total staked 133/ret 106.57/-26.43

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BET 7

Mitrione
Kongo
13@1.6/1
Skybet


Cheick Kongo, Fight Outright, Cheick Kongo v Oli Thompson
Matt Mitrione, Fight Outright, Fedor Emelianenko v Matt Mitrione
Josh Koscheck, Fight Outright, Josh Koscheck v Mauricio Alonso
Derrick Lewis, Fight Outright, Derrick Lewis v Travis Browne
Sara McMann, Fight Outright, Gina Mazany v Sara McMann
Yes, Will The Fight Go The Distance?, Carla Esparza v Randa Markos

Stake €4.00

Potential Returns €40.90

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BET 8

plenty of risks attached here with browne possibly having to win to avoid
being cut imo so one of these two are surely going to sleep

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 7

Mitrione
Kongo
13@1.6/1
Skybet


Cheick Kongo, Fight Outright, Cheick Kongo v Oli Thompson
Matt Mitrione, Fight Outright, Fedor Emelianenko v Matt Mitrione
Josh Koscheck, Fight Outright, Josh Koscheck v Mauricio Alonso
Derrick Lewis, Fight Outright, Derrick Lewis v Travis Browne
Sara McMann, Fight Outright, Gina Mazany v Sara McMann
Yes, Will The Fight Go The Distance?, Carla Esparza v Randa Markos

Stake €4.00

Potential Returns €40.90

single on kongo is all
staked 17
ret 17.73
+73c

mailburner wrote: »

BET 8

plenty of risks attached here with browne possibly having to win to avoid
being cut imo so one of these two are surely going to sleep

might be an idea to knock these accums on the head
could have gone either way but lewis gets it done despite badly needing a poo poo

staked 30
ret 49.64
+19.64

staked 47/ret 67.37/+20.37

total staked 180/ret 173.94/-6.06

Division

Do you have an opinion on how Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson will play out?

Can Ferguson deal with Khabib on the ground?

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Division wrote: »

Do you have an opinion on how Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson will play out?

Can Ferguson deal with Khabib on the ground?

I don't know how it will play out tbh but I believe we will get to see everything in what I think will be a crazy fight
The more is stays standing the more I fancy tony

I think ferguson might the only fighter to be able to deal with khabib on the ground and given how good he is off his back and I'd be surprised if he doesnt do a lot of damage himself there also.
It really is an awful hard fight to weigh up in my opinion but I just love the way tony fights and think he's just an awful match up for most...same applies to khabib though

it's been in my head to back tony for this since it was confirmed

PopePalpatine

Khabib's been ruled out due to complications while cutting weight.

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PopePalpatine wrote: »

Khabib's been ruled out due to complications while cutting weight.

unfortunately yes
came out at around 6pm on friday

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BET 9

05 Mar 2017 - Tyron Woodley v Stephen Thompson - Bout Betting

Tyron Woodley @ 13/10

Stake : €35.00
hills

woodley by ko 5/1
5
skybet

I lumped on wonderboy for the first fight and was fortunate enough to get my money back on that
I think wonderboy has only one gameplan and just think woodley has more ways to win this and think he could possibly stop wonderboy
I think he has a point to prove and will win more decisively on this occasion

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BET 10

evans 1/2
overeem 8/11
16 double (ret 41.45)
skybet

If overeem can stay out of hunts range I think he wins this, it probably won't
be exciting to watch
rashad should surely have to much class for kelly, can't believe he has declined that much and unless he gets into a brawl I think he wins this comfortably

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BET 11

Overeem pts 9/2
4

overeem pts 9/2
rashad pts 13/8
woodley ko 9/2
1.50 trixie
skybet

I think this will be the day I get one of these up :P
I think overeem will be very cautious coming from being knocked out and maybe just maybe that price is value

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 9

05 Mar 2017 - Tyron Woodley v Stephen Thompson - Bout Betting

Tyron Woodley @ 13/10

Stake : €35.00
hills

woodley by ko 5/1
5
skybet

I lumped on wonderboy for the first fight and was fortunate enough to get my money back on that
I think wonderboy has only one gameplan and just think woodley has more ways to win this and think he could possibly stop wonderboy
I think he has a point to prove and will win more decisively on this occasion

I suppose he did win it more decisively than the first fight going by the scores :P
woodley wins by the skin of his teeth and this was losing going into the last, so near to a ko also
staked 40
ret 80.50
+40.50

mailburner wrote: »

BET 10

evans 1/2
overeem 8/11
16 double (ret 41.45)
skybet

If overeem can stay out of hunts range I think he wins this, it probably won't
be exciting to watch
rashad should surely have to much class for kelly, can't believe he has declined that much and unless he gets into a brawl I think he wins this comfortably

-16
couldn't call the evans fight after three rounds but sadly he loses by split
I thought he was a near cert

mailburner wrote: »

BET 11

Overeem pts 9/2
4

overeem pts 9/2
rashad pts 13/8
woodley ko 9/2
1.50 trixie
skybet

I think this will be the day I get one of these up :P
I think overeem will be very cautious coming from being knocked out and maybe just maybe that price is value

-10
These all came close to coming off and maybe someday I'll click with
one of these, no regrets taking the overeem bet which was a few minutes
away from obliging

staked 66/ret 80.50/+14.50

Total staked 246/ret 254.44/+8.44

This log is back in profit after three profitable events...this probably means a losing streak is due

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Bet 12

UFC Matches Gareth McLellan v Paulo Borrachinha
12-03-2017 00:00
Method & Round Combo
Paulo Borrachinha KO & Round 1 @ 9/4
Your Bets
Win
Single: Paulo Borrachinha KO & Round 1 @ 9/4
1 line at €20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €20.00
Potential returns: €65.00

saver on ko and round 2 at 9/1
2euro

first ufc fight and in brazil, think he'll come out swinging and get it
done early, 8 fights all round one finishes 7 by ko but mostly inferior opponents possibly

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BET 13

barbosa
moraes ramos over 2.5 rnds
17 double @ 2.59


accum


3 returns 81.57

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BET 14

vitor round one 10/1
2
vitor round two 20/1
1
gast round two 4/1
2
gast round three 12/1
2

hard to imagine anything other than a vitor win early surely if he does do it
gast round two seems about right, just hoping vitor gets into the third
of course its in brazil so vitor might get his powers back :P

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

Bet 12

UFC Matches Gareth McLellan v Paulo Borrachinha
12-03-2017 00:00
Method & Round Combo
Paulo Borrachinha KO & Round 1 @ 9/4
Your Bets
Win
Single: Paulo Borrachinha KO & Round 1 @ 9/4
1 line at €20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €20.00
Potential returns: €65.00

saver on ko and round 2 at 9/1
2euro

first ufc fight and in brazil, think he'll come out swinging and get it
done early, 8 fights all round one finishes 7 by ko but mostly inferior opponents possibly

this was ending in the first whatever the outcome, this guy could be anything
staked 22
ret 65
+43

mailburner wrote: »

BET 13

barbosa
moraes ramos over 2.5 rnds
17 double @ 2.59


accum


3 returns 81.57

Barbosa lands a ko, very close fight up to that, means fight goes a few seconds over the 1.5 so finally a bit of luck, accum lands in the main event and to be fair if that fight had somehow gone over 3.5 I think I would have given up betting
staked 20
ret 128.23
+108.23

mailburner wrote: »

BET 14

vitor round one 10/1
2
vitor round two 20/1
1
gast round two 4/1
2
gast round three 12/1
2

hard to imagine anything other than a vitor win early surely if he does do it
gast round two seems about right, just hoping vitor gets into the third
of course its in brazil so vitor might get his powers back :P

gave vitor too much credit thinking he might last a round :pac:
-7


staked 49/ret 193.23/+144.23

Total staked 295/ret 447.67/+152.67

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BET 15

18 Mar 2017 - Alan Jouban v Gunnar Nelson - Bout Betting

Gunnar Nelson @ 4/11

18 Mar 2017 - Corey Anderson v Jimi Manuwa - Bout Betting

Jimi Manuwa @ 8/13

Stake : €30.00
Estimated Returns : €66.08
Hills

really fancy manuwa as long as this stays standing, don't see anderson being able to survive long if he can't get this to the mat
gunni is on a different level to jouban imo

Division

Great returns. Keep it going.

mailburner

Bet 16

Manuwa ko
Guni sub
5/1
5
Bv

Posted on site, like that price

Division

Great picking, was going to tail you on the win double but read an article that put some doubt in my mind about Manuwa.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 15

18 Mar 2017 - Alan Jouban v Gunnar Nelson - Bout Betting

Gunnar Nelson @ 4/11

18 Mar 2017 - Corey Anderson v Jimi Manuwa - Bout Betting

Jimi Manuwa @ 8/13

Stake : €30.00
Estimated Returns : €66.08
Hills

really fancy manuwa as long as this stays standing, don't see anderson being able to survive long if he can't get this to the mat
gunni is on a different level to jouban imo

went according to plan
staked 30
ret 66.08
+36.08

mailburner wrote: »

Bet 16

Manuwa ko
Guni sub
5/1
5
Bv

Posted on site, like that price

hard to imagine I'll ever get a method of victory double up as easy
as this one
staked 5
ret 30
+25

staked 35/ret 96.08/+61.08

Total staked 330/ret 543.75/+213.75

mailburner

BET 17


Mousasi 1.87
40
888


This is probably one that could go pear shaped if weidman decides to go to ground and that is a worry.
I think if it stays standing mousasi will have the edge, weidman is very tough to finish so I'd be possibly thinking pts if he does get it done.
I did expect weidman to be a narrow favourite here so there's no value in that price but the price has been tumbling in the past week so I've taken the best price available.

I would love to bet on rumble but that's heart over head, on the other hand if cormier stands with rumble like he said he will then I'd be all over rumble.
I don't think I'll take cormier's word for it however :P

mailburner

I thought mousasi was fighting this weekend :o:o

Division

You don't rate Weidman too highly?

I couldn't pick a winner but have a feeling this will be done and dusted before the end of the second round.

Fight not to go the distance is 2.2 with Bet victor. What do you think of that?

Division

Also interested to hear your opinion on Cormier v Johnson over 2.5 rounds at 2.2

mailburner

Division wrote: »

You don't rate Weidman too highly?

I couldn't pick a winner but have a feeling this will be done and dusted before the end of the second round.

Fight not to go the distance is 2.2 with Bet victor. What do you think of that?

Never have tbh, I'd have him roughly on par with romero but well behind rockhold and souza
I think it could possibly go the distance as I don't see weidman finishing mousasi and not sure mousasi has the power to put away weidman.


I think maybe I jumped in on mousasi before really thinking about how the fight might pan out, weidman came close to taking romero down time and time again yet failed so you would have to think he would have a lot more success with mousasi and I'm pretty sure he will try the same tactics

whether he sits on mousasi for three is another thing, maybe a sub is a possibility?

Division wrote: »

Also interested to hear your opinion on Cormier v Johnson over 2.5 rounds at 2.2

I really like that price, I think once cormier feels johnson hands he'll go straight back to wrestling but on this occasion I do think rumble will have worked more on this aspect of his game than any other so I think he will hang in there a lot longer and hopefully neutralise cormier's wrestling and possibly come away as champ
I think there's many possible outcomes for this one, I just don't know which one it will be but my gut says that price is value

mailburner

Division wrote: »

Fight not to go the distance is 2.2 with Bet victor. What do you think of that?

I'll tell you what I think makes no sense at all

https://www.oddschecker.com/ufc-mma/chris-weidman-v-gegard-mousasi/method-of-victory


mousasi being two points shorter in some lists to win by sub
I think the chances of mousasi subbing chris are pretty slim, the 8/1 on weidman by sub is good value at 8s in comparison

PopePalpatine

mailburner wrote: »

I'll tell you what I think makes no sense at all

https://www.oddschecker.com/ufc-mma/chris-weidman-v-gegard-mousasi/method-of-victory


mousasi being two points shorter in some lists to win by sub
I think the chances of mousasi subbing chris are pretty slim, the 8/1 on weidman by sub is good value at 8s in comparison

It makes sense if you're a bookie trying to profit out of a punter's loyalty to your brand.

Division

I have been thinking a bit more about both bets I mentioned to you.

I'll just stick with the over 2.5 rounds.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 17


Mousasi 1.87
40
888

I figured this probably isn't worth the risk, more I think about it the more
I feel weidman will get mousasi down and keep him there for long periods.
I might chance the mousasi pts instead with a saver on the weidman sub

mailburner

BET 18

UFC Matches Ronaldo Souza v Robert Whittaker
16-04-2017 01:00
Match Betting
Ronaldo Souza @ 4/6
Your Bets
Win
Single: Ronaldo Souza @ 4/6
1 line at €60.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €60.00
Potential returns: €100.00
pp


I'm taking this now as this price is way too generous, next best is 2/5
they somehow have whittaker at 6/5 when 2s is available elsewhere so time will tell if this is a mistake
I don't think whittaker is even close to being on the same level as souza and expect this to land in the first or second round

mailburner

BET 19

nad narimani 9/5
12
888

just minutes away, don't know a lot about narimani but I'm just eager to
take on pimblett

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 19

nad narimani 9/5
12
888

just minutes away, don't know a lot about narimani but I'm just eager to
take on pimblett

Won
staked 12
ret 33.60
+21.60

That was total domination by narimani who's no great shakes himself, never rated pimblett whose opponent (erosa) was robbed last time out.
I missed a trick there not doing some research on narimani and maybe having a bigger bet on


Total staked 342/ret 577.35/+235.35

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BET 20

€10.00 Single
Oliveira, Charles @ 9/4
Stake: €10.00Est. Returns: €32.50
stan james

Think this fight will be a lot closer than the odds suggest, not been impressed by brooks thus far and oliveira has been in there with the very best fighters like pettis, holloway, cerrone and edgar to name a few
under 2s now in a lot of places, was as big as 11/4 a few weeks back

mailburner

BET 21

cormier by sub 5/2
10
888

I have to let my head rule my heart on this one, price is over double the rumble ko and it'll be one or the other surely
I do hope I'm wrong though

mailburner

BET 22

cote
jury
30 double at 2.11
888


I think jury should have far too much for de la torre
I can't remember the last time I was impressed with alves, really poor v miller and even though back at ww I just think cote has more ways to win this

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BET 23

mousasi on pts 5/2
10

weidman by sub 8/1
5
skybet

I think if mousasi wins this it'll probably be on pts unless that ko weidman suffered against romero changes things
If weidman wins this I would imagine it'll either be pts or sub, the sub for me is attractively priced at 8/1 so went with that one
I feel this is a fight weidman has to win and he'll try and keep this on the mat for 15 and just maybe there'll be a sub in there at some stage

mailburner

BET 24

The mugbet to finish for me unless something jumps out at me later


2 returns 87.26 (888)

cormier sub
usman dec
jury ko
over 2.5 alves cote
over 2.5 brooks oliveira

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BET 25


cormier by sub 5/2
10
888

same again, just want to top on on this at these odds which I like a lot
I'm just not convinced rumble will be able to go the distance should he have to, cormier will break him at some stage if rumble doesn't do it in the first two imo

mailburner

BET 26


UFC 210 Bet Boosts
Daniel Cormier to win by Round 4 or 5 Submission (£10 max) - DC v Rumble
(UFC 210 - Match)
Odds: 10/1
Stake: 3.00
Possible Return: 33.00

Daniel Cormier v Anthony Johnson
Rear Naked Choke
(Submission Outcome - Match)
Odds: 4/1
Stake: 4.00
Possible Return: 20.00
betv

nice odds on the round 4/5 sub imo, at this rate I probably should be rooting
for dc but sadly I'm not