how can there be almost no inflation in Ireland if property has gone up by so much?

armabelle

sorry if this is a stupid question but I am not an economist

Since property in Ireland costs at least 50% more than what it did a few years ago how can economists say that inflation is close to 0%?

Slydice

Here's the inflation website with all the details:
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/cpi/consumerpriceindexnovember2016/

Private rents and mortgage interest can be see down the bottom, click the + beside:
Show Table 7 COICOP Division 04 Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels - November 2016

From a quick check, it looks to me that it's probably:
- House prices aren't on it, only mortgage interest (and it's going down cos EU rate is going down)
- Rents, Cigs and Insurance are the only things jumping up
- All the other things are then bringing the overall number down (now is the time to buy pizza it seems:))

House prices are seen rising but on a separate page here:
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexoctober2016/

riffmongous

Something I was wondering recently and this seems like the best time to ask it, for food is it the price per weight or price per unit? Say like for chocolate the price of a bar might stay the same but the size of the bar gets smaller.

armabelle

Slydice wrote: »

Here's the inflation website with all the details:
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/cpi/consumerpriceindexnovember2016/

Private rents and mortgage interest can be see down the bottom, click the + beside:
Show Table 7 COICOP Division 04 Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels - November 2016

From a quick check, it looks to me that it's probably:
- House prices aren't on it, only mortgage interest (and it's going down cos EU rate is going down)
- Rents, Cigs and Insurance are the only things jumping up
- All the other things are then bringing the overall number down (now is the time to buy pizza it seems:))

House prices are seen rising but on a separate page here:
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexoctober2016/

Thanks but I wasn't really looking for info on housing inflation because it is obvious to everyone that housing has shot up. I don't know by how much but by a lot in the past few years. I am sure everyone can agree on that. What I was hoping for is to get some explanation as to why inflation is measured at almost 0% or less in Ireland when housing has shot up. Housing is the single most important and indeed biggest expense for any person/family. I am sure there must be a reasonable explanation somewhere but I can't really understand it.

Slydice

armabelle wrote: »

Thanks but I wasn't really looking for info on housing inflation because it is obvious to everyone that housing has shot up. I don't know by how much but by a lot in the past few years. I am sure everyone can agree on that. What I was hoping for is to get some explanation as to why inflation is measured at almost 0% or less in Ireland when housing has shot up. Housing is the single most important and indeed biggest expense for any person/family. I am sure there must be a reasonable explanation somewhere but I can't really understand it.

did you miss this part of my post?

Slydice wrote: »

From a quick check, it looks to me that it's probably:
- House prices aren't on it, only mortgage interest (and it's going down cos EU rate is going down)
- Rents, Cigs and Insurance are the only things jumping up
- All the other things are then bringing the overall number down (now is the time to buy pizza it seems:))

armabelle

Slydice wrote: »

did you miss this part of my post?

let me see if I understand, you are saying house prices are not included when inflation figures are calculated? How can this be acceptable? This is totally non-sensical since it is the main monthly expense people have.

Slydice

armabelle wrote: »

let me see if I understand, you are saying house prices are not included when inflation figures are calculated? How can this be acceptable? This is totally non-sensical since it is the main monthly expense people have.

looks like citizensinfo give a guess at why:
http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/consumer_affairs/consumer_protection/pricing/consumer_price_index.html

The outright purchase of a house or apartment as a private residence is not covered in the CPI as it is considered to be a form of investment rather than consumer expenditure.

the full section on housing from that page:

Housing costs

The CPI covers the full range of housing costs, namely:

• Mortgage interest costs of buying a house or apartment
• Rents of privately owned dwellings
• Rents of local authority dwellings
• Waste collection
• Repairs and decorations
• Domestic energy products such as electricity, oil, gas etc.

Water supply and sewage collection were added in January 2015.

The outright purchase of a house or apartment as a private residence is not covered in the CPI as it is considered to be a form of investment rather than consumer expenditure. Down payments in the case of mortgage arrangements and the capital element of mortgage repayments are also excluded from the CPI for the same reason.

armabelle

Slydice wrote: »

looks like citizensinfo give a guess at why:
http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/consumer_affairs/consumer_protection/pricing/consumer_price_index.html



the full section on housing from that page:

so a roof over your head is an investment now? Am I the only one who thinks this is completely insane?

regi3457

This may partly explain why:

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Governments don't just ignore rising costs in food and energy when they are assessing inflation figures. (They fiddle the figures in this grotesquely dishonest way because it is easier to keep the official inflation figures down - and to convince everyone that you are doing a good job - if you don't count the things that are going up most.) They also use astonishing little tricks such as including hedonic adjustments and rental-equivalent home pricing and using geometric averaging when working out inflation.
Geometric averaging means that if the basket of goodies measured to find the inflation figure contains one item which goes up 10% and another which goes down 10% the effect on the basket isn't 0% (as you might imagine) but a 1% fall. Governments produce this miracle of accounting by multiplying 110 (the figure obtained because of the 10% rise) by 90 (the figure obtained because of the 10% fall). This gives a total of 99. And, lo, a fall in inflation (and the cost of living) of 1%. Only politicians and economists can do this.
Hedonic adjustments enable politicians to take advantage of progress to keep inflation low. If you bought a computer a year ago for £1000 and you replace it with a computer which cost £1500 but is 10 times as fast then the computer is registered by the Government as costing less.
And rental-equivalent home pricing? That's a trick they use to minimise the effect of rising house prices. If your home is now worth twice as much as it was a few years ago but the rent you would have to pay has only gone up by half then the inflation figure is deemed to be a half. The real rise in the cost of the home is ignored.
All these utterly, deplorably dishonest inventions were designed to enable politicians to lie and cheat the voters. (There are more tricks, (for example when they measure gross domestic product they tend to ignore the fact that the population has grown and that the per capita GDP - the figure that really matters - is probably going in the other direction) but I'm getting weary and I suspect you are too. Unravelling the lies they tell can be tiresome work.) And they have worked very well on both sides of the Atlantic. Politicians and civil servants are concerned only with what they can get away with. If they can make something legal they will do so - and ignore the moral or ethical dimensions. [/FONT][/FONT]

armabelle

regi3457 wrote: »

This may partly explain why:

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Governments don't just ignore rising costs in food and energy when they are assessing inflation figures. (They fiddle the figures in this grotesquely dishonest way because it is easier to keep the official inflation figures down - and to convince everyone that you are doing a good job - if you don't count the things that are going up most.) They also use astonishing little tricks such as including hedonic adjustments and rental-equivalent home pricing and using geometric averaging when working out inflation.
Geometric averaging means that if the basket of goodies measured to find the inflation figure contains one item which goes up 10% and another which goes down 10% the effect on the basket isn't 0% (as you might imagine) but a 1% fall. Governments produce this miracle of accounting by multiplying 110 (the figure obtained because of the 10% rise) by 90 (the figure obtained because of the 10% fall). This gives a total of 99. And, lo, a fall in inflation (and the cost of living) of 1%. Only politicians and economists can do this.
Hedonic adjustments enable politicians to take advantage of progress to keep inflation low. If you bought a computer a year ago for £1000 and you replace it with a computer which cost £1500 but is 10 times as fast then the computer is registered by the Government as costing less.
And rental-equivalent home pricing? That's a trick they use to minimise the effect of rising house prices. If your home is now worth twice as much as it was a few years ago but the rent you would have to pay has only gone up by half then the inflation figure is deemed to be a half. The real rise in the cost of the home is ignored.
All these utterly, deplorably dishonest inventions were designed to enable politicians to lie and cheat the voters. (There are more tricks, (for example when they measure gross domestic product they tend to ignore the fact that the population has grown and that the per capita GDP - the figure that really matters - is probably going in the other direction) but I'm getting weary and I suspect you are too. Unravelling the lies they tell can be tiresome work.) And they have worked very well on both sides of the Atlantic. Politicians and civil servants are concerned only with what they can get away with. If they can make something legal they will do so - and ignore the moral or ethical dimensions. [/FONT][/FONT]

That is shocking to say the least. I guess people (the voters) have brought it on themselves by just believing foolishly that these things are being taken care of in the interest of everyone.

Maybe it is better that I didn't study economics as if I had I may all of a sudden start seeing that not including housing prices in the CPI is actually quite normal

CelticRambler

armabelle wrote: »

you are saying house prices are not included when inflation figures are calculated? How can this be acceptable? This is totally non-sensical since it is the main monthly expense people have.

It's not an expense, it's an investment. The "sense" is that you're putting your money into something from which you can get it out again in the future, same as a savings account.

Whether you believe that your home is an investment or not is irrelevant. In Ireland (like in the UK) outside forces - with the complicity of the government - have made it an investment, something to be bought and sold as long as the price keeps going up.

In the grand scheme of things, you can opt to not buy a house and rent instead, or you can buy somewhere cheaper. In many cases that would be the financially sensible thing to do, but that's not how most people think and few ever really do the sums.

armabelle

CelticRambler wrote: »

It's not an expense, it's an investment. The "sense" is that you're putting your money into something from which you can get it out again in the future, same as a savings account.

Whether you believe that your home is an investment or not is irrelevant. In Ireland (like in the UK) outside forces - with the complicity of the government - have made it an investment, something to be bought and sold as long as the price keeps going up.

In the grand scheme of things, you can opt to not buy a house and rent instead, or you can buy somewhere cheaper. In many cases that would be the financially sensible thing to do, but that's not how most people think and few ever really do the sums.

Ok so let's take rent then which is an expense. I will rephrase the question in the OP: How can there be almost no inflation in Ireland if rent has gone up by so much?

CelticRambler

armabelle wrote: »

Ok so let's take rent then which is an expense. I will rephrase the question in the OP: How can there be almost no inflation in Ireland if rent has gone up by so much?

Because they haven't gone up by much overall and any increases in rent are offset by savings in other expenses.

Just because rents are "unaffordable" in places like Dublin doesn't mean anything for the country as a whole. No-one is obliged to live in Dublin!

AlmightyCushion

armabelle wrote: »

Ok so let's take rent then which is an expense. I will rephrase the question in the OP: How can there be almost no inflation in Ireland if rent has gone up by so much?

Did you look at the link SlyDice posted? Plenty of other things have dropped in price offsetting the increases in rent. Plus, you have to remember that the inflation figures are for the whole country so whilst some places have gone up, other areas of the country haven't increased at all or potentially decreased.

armabelle

CelticRambler wrote: »

Because they haven't gone up by much overall and any increases in rent are offset by savings in other expenses.

Just because rents are "unaffordable" in places like Dublin doesn't mean anything for the country as a whole. No-one is obliged to live in Dublin!

ehm, not really

https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-2016q1-rental

nationwide increase by 9.3% in a year

CelticRambler

armabelle wrote: »

ehm, not really

https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-2016q1-rental

nationwide increase by 9.3% in a year

Yeah, but the year before it was 8.2%, so only 1.1% of that increase needs to be taken into account when reporting a change in the rate of inflation. That's a relatively small increase compared to the drop in the value of sterling and the billions of euros spent (or saved :pac: ) by Irish home-owners and renters on UK imports in the second half of 2016.

armabelle

CelticRambler wrote: »

Yeah, but the year before it was 8.2%, so only 1.1% of that increase needs to be taken into account when reporting a change in the rate of inflation. That's a relatively small increase compared to the drop in the value of sterling and the billions of euros spent (or saved :pac: ) by Irish home-owners and renters on UK imports in the second half of 2016.

Why do you say only 1.1% needs to be taken into account. CPI figures don't show the change of inflation, they show inflation. If something costs 100 euro in 2015 and there was 8% inflation, the following year it will be 108 euro and if in 2016 there is 10% inflation then in 2017 it will be 118.80. 18.80 euro in 2 years is not 1.1% difference. Please tell me if my common sense eludes me.

CelticRambler

Because the prices of everything in the mix are going up or going down steadily over a longer period of time than a one-quarter snapshot. If rents have been going up steadily by say 6%, then 8% then 10%, then renters have already factored the 6% and the 8% into their disposable income, putting downward pressure on the prices of other purchases.

You've also got the situation that home ownership in Ireland is around 80%, so even if you take that whole 10% into account, the increase in the cost of renting isn't particularly important nationally, even if you're paying 90% of your wages to a landlord.

Add in to the mix a load of wage freezes and unavoidable taxes and other people simply don't have the money to buy "stuff" either, meaning businesses are competing with each other for customers, cutting prices to stay in the game.

armabelle

CelticRambler wrote: »

Because the prices of everything in the mix are going up or going down steadily over a longer period of time than a one-quarter snapshot. If rents have been going up steadily by say 6%, then 8% then 10%, then renters have already factored the 6% and the 8% into their disposable income, putting downward pressure on the prices of other purchases.

You've also got the situation that home ownership in Ireland is around 80%, so even if you take that whole 10% into account, the increase in the cost of renting isn't particularly important nationally, even if you're paying 90% of your wages to a landlord.

Add in to the mix a load of wage freezes and unavoidable taxes and other people simply don't have the money to buy "stuff" either, meaning businesses are competing with each other for customers, cutting prices to stay in the game.

What are those "other" things you speak of in the mix? I am thinking of my own personal monthly expenses here which are probably the norm so, has food, heating and electricity gone down over the last 3 years to such an extent that it has ironed out the 30% rental increase over 3 years to 0% according to CPI?

And, when you say "home ownership". You mean 80% of people own their homes or 80% of people live in homes owned by banks?

armabelle

I found a very good response to my original OP. Highly unlikely but should ever anyone have the same question, I will post it here

The CPI stands for a Consumer Price Index. As in the price of things that are consumed (at a particular moment in time). Real estate prices are not the price of something consumed because they contain the value of current housing consumption but also the capitalized value of future housing consumption. As such, including house prices would make the CPI a mixture of consumption at different times, and therefore unsuitable for comparing the price of consumption bundles at distinct times. Instead, they use a purer measure of the price of housing consumption: rents.

Rents reflect the price of consuming a flow of real estate services at a moment in time. Of course, many homes are owned by the occupants and not rented. Therefore, the calculators of national accounts generate something called "owner occupied rents", which is an attempt to calculate what the rents would be on homes that are occupied by their owners. This measure has problems, but for many purposes is quite adequate (Crone, Nakamura, Voith (2004)).

listermint

Because Economics is no more than guess work mostly informed guess work none the less and they do alot of juking the stats regular game of yearly optics they set the rules to bring an outcome.

Geuze

armabelle wrote: »

let me see if I understand, you are saying house prices are not included when inflation figures are calculated? How can this be acceptable? This is totally non-sensical since it is the main monthly expense people have.

The CPI tracks the prices of goods and services, not assets.

So house prices are not included in any CPI, anywhere.

What is included in the CPI is housing costs, e.g.:

• rents
• mortgage interest
• house insurance

Geuze

armabelle wrote: »

Since property in Ireland costs at least 50% more than what it did a few years ago how can economists say that inflation is close to 0%?

Outside the cities, house prices have not increased by anything like 50%.

Geuze

armabelle wrote: »

so a roof over your head is an investment now? Am I the only one who thinks this is completely insane?

It is an asset.

Geuze

armabelle wrote: »

Ok so let's take rent then which is an expense. I will rephrase the question in the OP: How can there be almost no inflation in Ireland if rent has gone up by so much?

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/cpi/consumerpriceindexnovember2016/

See table 7.

Rents make up 6% weight of the CPI.

Private rents are up 45% between Dec 2011 and Nov 2016, over nearly five years.

Note that mortgage interest has fallen, so that overall rental/mortgage housing costs are actually down slightly.

Geuze

armabelle wrote: »

And, when you say "home ownership". You mean 80% of people own their homes or 80% of people live in homes owned by banks?

Banks don't own houses, or they own extremely few houses.

armabelle

Geuze wrote: »

The CPI tracks the prices of goods and services, not assets.

So house prices are not included in any CPI, anywhere.

What is included in the CPI is housing costs, e.g.:

• rents
• mortgage interest
• house insurance

Then why aren't rents included? Anyone in Ireland knows there is a problem with rising rents over the past years yet inflation supposedly remains @ 0 or 1%? what good is the CPI then?

armabelle

Geuze wrote: »

Banks don't own houses, or they own extremely few houses.

Are there reliable statistics that show how much of Irelands population actually owns their own home? I am pretty sure it is not 80%.

Nowadays when you speak to people, the ones who don't rent like to call themselves home owners when very few of these people actually own a home.

AlmightyCushion

armabelle wrote: »

Then why aren't rents included? Anyone in Ireland knows there is a problem with rising rents over the past years yet inflation supposedly remains @ 0 or 1%? what good is the CPI then?

Rents are included, he says as much in his post

armabelle

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Rents are included, he says as much in his post

Yes I know they "are" but are they really? if the rents have gone up by so much why hasn't it made the inflation figures higher. I can't see what other monthly expenses have gone down so much as to compensate for this keeping inflation @ 0%

maninasia

CelticRambler wrote: »

armabelle wrote: »

Ok so let's take rent then which is an expense. I will rephrase the question in the OP: How can there be almost no inflation in Ireland if rent has gone up by so much?

Because they haven't gone up by much overall and any increases in rent are offset by savings in other expenses.

Just because rents are "unaffordable" in places like Dublin doesn't mean anything for the country as a whole. No-one is obliged to live in Dublin!

Rents have gone up all over the country and in the major urban areas where most live they have gone up the most!