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January 2017 Boards forecast contest

  • 29-12-2016 8:40am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    No big changes in format for the 2017 Boards weather contest.

    1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value is 5.4 C. (max 25 points)

    2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during January. (max 20 points)

    3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

    6. For a BONUS question, predict the maximum temperature at Mullingar on Sunday, 8th of January. (max 10 points).

    Deadline will be as usual at 0300h on Sunday, 1st of January, but given the combined New Years and weekend factors in play, I will relax the late penalties as follows: you will lose one point if you post between 0305h and 0900h. You will lose two points for a post 0901-1500h. From there on, the late penalties will be one point every three hours to midnight (end of 1st) so at that point 5 points will be deducted; then it will be one more point for each two hours elapsed to end of second and one more point per hour after that.

    That's a bit more lenient than usual.


    Hoping to get a few new forum members to join in the fun, if you know people who don't enter the contest but are weather forum regulars, pitch the contest to them in a private message.

    Here's how the minimum progression rule will be slightly modified for use in the coming year. If no forecasts qualify for the existing minimum progression, then it will be applied as per rules already set out. If the high score does not need minimum progression to equal or exceed maximum minus 2, then whatever portion of the scores needing a boost can only get an increase of half the differential (raw score to min progression) -- that would reward the one person who foresaw an extreme situation while still keeping the scores tolerable. Here's an example, let's say the MIN in a cold month is -11.0 and there is one guess of -10.8, then -9.5, -8.0 and -7.0. The low guess would get 18 points. Minimum progression says we should then go 17, 16, 15, 14 etc (doubling up near the bottom as required by number of entries). In this case, second coldest has five points raw score. The boost to 17 would be 12 points but with the one "good" forecast this would be reduced to 6, for 11 points. Then for third and fourth, the raw scores are zero. The minimum progression scores would be 16 and 15, so these get 8 points each. Etc etc, the doubling up will begin a bit earlier as a result (everyone will still get some points in these situations).

    If the best forecast had been -10.0, we would go 18, 17, 16 etc.

    ============================================

    GOOD LUCK and best wishes for a happy new year to all. -- MTC


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen __________ 4.4 _ 14.0_ -8.0 _ 70_ 120_ 4.2c

    Still living the dream for a cold month!

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal __________ 4.1 _ 13.0_ -7.0 _ 85_ 101_ 7.0c


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower 3_______5.0____15.0_____-6.5____88_____95____9.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    dasa29_______4.8____12.0_____-5.5____95_____110____4.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    pauldry_______5.7____13.9_____-5.9____84_____107____9.7


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    John Mac __________ 5.1 _ 14.0_ -6.0 _ 88_ 110_ 6.2


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,101 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ____________ 4.9 ___ 13.2 ___ -7.3 ___ 90 ___ 105 ___ 3.7


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi ____________ 5.4 ___ 13.8 ___ -6.5 ___ 88 ___ 92 ___ 8.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn_______6.7____14.3____-5.5____75_____125___8.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium ______ 5.9 __ 14.5 __ --7.5 __ 050 __ 150 ___ 7.7


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  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ______ 6.1 __ 13.8 __ --5.1 __ 100 __ 107 ___ 10.0

    Should have done this earlier!
    Happy New Year to all.


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ______ 5.8 __ 13.9__ -9.5 __ 120 __ 103 ___ 9.8
    Happy New Year and thank you.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand _____ 6.0 ___15.0 ___ -7.0 ____ 90 ____ 110 ____ 10.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner_______5.2______14.5°_____-5.6°______90_______90______4.8°


    Happy New Year to all.


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 5.0 ___ 14.0 ___ -6° ___ 105 ___ 105 ___ 8.0


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts __________ 5.4 _ 12.0_ -6.0 _ 80_120_ 9.2c


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa_______5.2______14.8 _____-7.2 ______82_______110______8.9


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,755 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire _____ 5.7 ___13.7 ___ -6.8 ____ 85 ____ 105 ____ 6.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels______ 5.5 _ 11.9_ -6.2 _ 83_121_ 8.2c


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ______ 3.9 __ 13.9 __ -8.9 __ 75 __ 135 ___ 8.9


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts January 2017

    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 8th

    Jpmarn ___________ 6.7 _ 14.3 _ --5.5 _ 075 _ 125 ____ 8.5
    Tae laidir __________6.1 _ 13.8 _ --5.1 _ 100 _ 107 ___ 10.0
    Rikand ____________6.0 _ 15.0 _ --7.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 10.5
    M.T. Cranium ______ 5.9 _ 14.5 _ --7.5 _ 050 _ 150 ____ 7.7
    waterways _________5.8 _ 13.9 _ --9.5 _ 120 _ 103 ____ 9.8
    pauldry ___________ 5.7 _ 13.9 _ --5.9 _ 084 _ 107 ____ 9.7
    Rameire _ (-3) _____ 5.7 _ 13.7 _ --6.8 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 6.5
    200motels__ (-5) ___ 5.5 _ 11.9 _ --6.2 _ 083 _ 121 ____ 8.2

    NormaL ___________ 5.4 _ 14.5 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 8.2

    Lumi ______________5.4 _ 13.8 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 092 ____ 8.5
    mickger844posts_(-2)_5.4 _ 12.0 _ --6.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 9.2

    Con Sensus _________5.3 _ 13.9 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 8.5

    Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 5.2 _ 14.8 _ --7.2 _ 082 _ 110 ____ 8.9
    MrSkinner __________5.2 _ 14.5 _ --5.6 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 4.8
    John Mac __________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 6.2
    Sunflower 3 ________ 5.0 _ 15.0 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 095 ____ 9.5
    Kindred Spirit _______5.0 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 8.0
    DOCARCH __________4.9 _ 13.2 _ --7.3 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 3.7
    dasa29 ____________ 4.8 _ 12.0 _ --5.5 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 4.5
    sryanbruen _________ 4.4 _ 14.0 _ --8.0 _ 070 _ 120 ____ 4.2
    Bsal _______________4.1 _ 13.0 _ --7.0 _ 085 _ 101 ____ 7.0
    Joe Public __ (-5) ____ 3.9 _ 13.9 _ --8.9 _ 075 _ 135 ____ 8.9

    ____________________________________________________
    As of 0800h Monday 2nd, penalties have reached 9 points and will increase by one
    point each 2h today.
    Con Sensus can be changed by later entries. There are now 20 entries so Con Sensus is average of 10th and 11th ranked forecasts in each category.


  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Gurteen at -4.0 yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Moore Park was showing -5 at 0600h, so that suggests a lower MIN to come.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Moore park has had quite a few frosty nights this Winter. Is it another ice trap like Markree?


  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    pauldry wrote: »
    Moore park has had quite a few frosty nights this Winter. Is it another ice trap like Markree?

    Looks like it. -5.7 confirmed. Next lowest Oak Park at -3.5.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    About -8 here the past two mornings. That doesn't count though.

    Also three days of unbroken sunshine, something you don't see very often here in January.


  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Met Eireann forecasting max of 9 to 12 for Sunday.
    A nice bonus!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT at 5.0 which was 0.3 below average.

    PRC was 59% of normal.

    SUN was 138% of normal.

    MAX so far is 12.5

    MIN so far is --5.7


  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Mullingar Max 10.6 yesterday.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Bonus points will be in order of the forecasts from high to low, two sharing each level from 10 down to 1.

    Closest were Rikand (10.5) and Tae laidir (10.0) who get the 10 points.

    Next we have waterways (9.8) and Pauldry (9.7) who will have nine points.

    Eight points go to mickger844posts and sunflower 3,

    Seven points shared by Dacogawa and Joe Public.

    Six points go to Jpmarn, Lumi and Con Sensus.

    Five points for 200motels, Kindred Spirit and NormaL.

    Four points -- MTC and Bsal.

    Three points -- Rameire and John mac.

    Two points -- MrSkinner and dasa29

    One point -- Sryanbruen and DOCARCH.


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