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January 2017 Boards forecast contest

  • 29-12-2016 7:40am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,739 ✭✭✭✭


    No big changes in format for the 2017 Boards weather contest.

    1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value is 5.4 C. (max 25 points)

    2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during January. (max 20 points)

    3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

    6. For a BONUS question, predict the maximum temperature at Mullingar on Sunday, 8th of January. (max 10 points).

    Deadline will be as usual at 0300h on Sunday, 1st of January, but given the combined New Years and weekend factors in play, I will relax the late penalties as follows: you will lose one point if you post between 0305h and 0900h. You will lose two points for a post 0901-1500h. From there on, the late penalties will be one point every three hours to midnight (end of 1st) so at that point 5 points will be deducted; then it will be one more point for each two hours elapsed to end of second and one more point per hour after that.

    That's a bit more lenient than usual.


    Hoping to get a few new forum members to join in the fun, if you know people who don't enter the contest but are weather forum regulars, pitch the contest to them in a private message.

    Here's how the minimum progression rule will be slightly modified for use in the coming year. If no forecasts qualify for the existing minimum progression, then it will be applied as per rules already set out. If the high score does not need minimum progression to equal or exceed maximum minus 2, then whatever portion of the scores needing a boost can only get an increase of half the differential (raw score to min progression) -- that would reward the one person who foresaw an extreme situation while still keeping the scores tolerable. Here's an example, let's say the MIN in a cold month is -11.0 and there is one guess of -10.8, then -9.5, -8.0 and -7.0. The low guess would get 18 points. Minimum progression says we should then go 17, 16, 15, 14 etc (doubling up near the bottom as required by number of entries). In this case, second coldest has five points raw score. The boost to 17 would be 12 points but with the one "good" forecast this would be reduced to 6, for 11 points. Then for third and fourth, the raw scores are zero. The minimum progression scores would be 16 and 15, so these get 8 points each. Etc etc, the doubling up will begin a bit earlier as a result (everyone will still get some points in these situations).

    If the best forecast had been -10.0, we would go 18, 17, 16 etc.

    ============================================

    GOOD LUCK and best wishes for a happy new year to all. -- MTC


Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,738 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen __________ 4.4 _ 14.0_ -8.0 _ 70_ 120_ 4.2c

    Still living the dream for a cold month!

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,780 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal __________ 4.1 _ 13.0_ -7.0 _ 85_ 101_ 7.0c


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 196 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower 3_______5.0____15.0_____-6.5____88_____95____9.5


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 579 ✭✭✭dasa29


    dasa29_______4.8____12.0_____-5.5____95_____110____4.5


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,295 ✭✭✭pauldry


    pauldry_______5.7____13.9_____-5.9____84_____107____9.7


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,140 ✭✭✭John mac


    John Mac __________ 5.1 _ 14.0_ -6.0 _ 88_ 110_ 6.2


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,444 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ____________ 4.9 ___ 13.2 ___ -7.3 ___ 90 ___ 105 ___ 3.7


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    Lumi ____________ 5.4 ___ 13.8 ___ -6.5 ___ 88 ___ 92 ___ 8.5


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn_______6.7____14.3____-5.5____75_____125___8.5


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,739 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium ______ 5.9 __ 14.5 __ --7.5 __ 050 __ 150 ___ 7.7


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ______ 6.1 __ 13.8 __ --5.1 __ 100 __ 107 ___ 10.0

    Should have done this earlier!
    Happy New Year to all.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 382 ✭✭waterways


    waterways ______ 5.8 __ 13.9__ -9.5 __ 120 __ 103 ___ 9.8
    Happy New Year and thank you.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,511 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Rikand _____ 6.0 ___15.0 ___ -7.0 ____ 90 ____ 110 ____ 10.5


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 400 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner_______5.2______14.5°_____-5.6°______90_______90______4.8°


    Happy New Year to all.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 350 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 5.0 ___ 14.0 ___ -6° ___ 105 ___ 105 ___ 8.0


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,483 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    mickger844posts __________ 5.4 _ 12.0_ -6.0 _ 80_120_ 9.2c


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,845 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa_______5.2______14.8 _____-7.2 ______82_______110______8.9


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,239 ✭✭✭rameire


    Rameire _____ 5.7 ___13.7 ___ -6.8 ____ 85 ____ 105 ____ 6.5

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,604 ✭✭✭200motels


    200motels______ 5.5 _ 11.9_ -6.2 _ 83_121_ 8.2c


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public ______ 3.9 __ 13.9 __ -8.9 __ 75 __ 135 ___ 8.9


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,739 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts January 2017

    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 8th

    Jpmarn ___________ 6.7 _ 14.3 _ --5.5 _ 075 _ 125 ____ 8.5
    Tae laidir __________6.1 _ 13.8 _ --5.1 _ 100 _ 107 ___ 10.0
    Rikand ____________6.0 _ 15.0 _ --7.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 10.5
    M.T. Cranium ______ 5.9 _ 14.5 _ --7.5 _ 050 _ 150 ____ 7.7
    waterways _________5.8 _ 13.9 _ --9.5 _ 120 _ 103 ____ 9.8
    pauldry ___________ 5.7 _ 13.9 _ --5.9 _ 084 _ 107 ____ 9.7
    Rameire _ (-3) _____ 5.7 _ 13.7 _ --6.8 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 6.5
    200motels__ (-5) ___ 5.5 _ 11.9 _ --6.2 _ 083 _ 121 ____ 8.2

    NormaL ___________ 5.4 _ 14.5 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 8.2

    Lumi ______________5.4 _ 13.8 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 092 ____ 8.5
    mickger844posts_(-2)_5.4 _ 12.0 _ --6.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 9.2

    Con Sensus _________5.3 _ 13.9 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 8.5

    Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 5.2 _ 14.8 _ --7.2 _ 082 _ 110 ____ 8.9
    MrSkinner __________5.2 _ 14.5 _ --5.6 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 4.8
    John Mac __________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 6.2
    Sunflower 3 ________ 5.0 _ 15.0 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 095 ____ 9.5
    Kindred Spirit _______5.0 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 8.0
    DOCARCH __________4.9 _ 13.2 _ --7.3 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 3.7
    dasa29 ____________ 4.8 _ 12.0 _ --5.5 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 4.5
    sryanbruen _________ 4.4 _ 14.0 _ --8.0 _ 070 _ 120 ____ 4.2
    Bsal _______________4.1 _ 13.0 _ --7.0 _ 085 _ 101 ____ 7.0
    Joe Public __ (-5) ____ 3.9 _ 13.9 _ --8.9 _ 075 _ 135 ____ 8.9

    ____________________________________________________
    As of 0800h Monday 2nd, penalties have reached 9 points and will increase by one
    point each 2h today.
    Con Sensus can be changed by later entries. There are now 20 entries so Con Sensus is average of 10th and 11th ranked forecasts in each category.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Gurteen at -4.0 yesterday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,739 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Moore Park was showing -5 at 0600h, so that suggests a lower MIN to come.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,295 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Moore park has had quite a few frosty nights this Winter. Is it another ice trap like Markree?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    pauldry wrote: »
    Moore park has had quite a few frosty nights this Winter. Is it another ice trap like Markree?

    Looks like it. -5.7 confirmed. Next lowest Oak Park at -3.5.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,739 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    About -8 here the past two mornings. That doesn't count though.

    Also three days of unbroken sunshine, something you don't see very often here in January.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Met Eireann forecasting max of 9 to 12 for Sunday.
    A nice bonus!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,739 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT at 5.0 which was 0.3 below average.

    PRC was 59% of normal.

    SUN was 138% of normal.

    MAX so far is 12.5

    MIN so far is --5.7


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Mullingar Max 10.6 yesterday.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,739 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Bonus points will be in order of the forecasts from high to low, two sharing each level from 10 down to 1.

    Closest were Rikand (10.5) and Tae laidir (10.0) who get the 10 points.

    Next we have waterways (9.8) and Pauldry (9.7) who will have nine points.

    Eight points go to mickger844posts and sunflower 3,

    Seven points shared by Dacogawa and Joe Public.

    Six points go to Jpmarn, Lumi and Con Sensus.

    Five points for 200motels, Kindred Spirit and NormaL.

    Four points -- MTC and Bsal.

    Three points -- Rameire and John mac.

    Two points -- MrSkinner and dasa29

    One point -- Sryanbruen and DOCARCH.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,739 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT at 5.5 with the second week 6.1, which was 0.9 above normal.

    PRC still running low, 61% after the second week almost matched the first week at 63%.

    SUN now at 127% of normal, the second week averaged 115% but was closer to 150% away from the cloudier southwest.

    MAX and MIN continue unchanged.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,739 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Now after three weeks ...

    IMT at 5.8(4) with the third week 6.6, 1.4 above average (the last two days were colder so the IMT peaked at 6.0 back on the 19th).

    PRC has fallen to a very low 42% after an almost dry week (5% of normal).

    SUN is at 124% with this past week 118% (despite the two Dublin area stations only recording 49% each).

    MAX and MIN were unmoved by the experience.

    This coming week looks somewhat milder again, with near normal rain and perhaps not that much sunshine, so by end of week four we may be looking at 6.0, 55-60 per cent PRC and closer to 110% sunshine? Max could be nudged up a bit too.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    I clicked "thanks" even though I don't like it :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,738 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Joe Public wrote: »
    I clicked "thanks" even though I don't like it :)

    You clicked because you appreciate MT's hard work and so do I.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,739 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I've done some hard work in my time, and this doesn't qualify, in fact it barely makes the criterion of easy work.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,739 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Could be that I will do some hard time for my work though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,738 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Could be that I will do some hard time for my work though.

    Hey any work you do on this forum is very appreciable and you do an amazing job.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,739 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    A new MAX of 12.9 was recorded at Shannon on the 24th. It remained intact through the 25th.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,739 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    So after four weeks and me almost forgetting to update ...

    IMT at 5.9(4) with the fourth week 6.2, which is 1.0 above the normal. Can't see much change but figure on 6.0 since anything much higher than that will round up to at least 5.96.

    PRC remains low, 45% for the month and 53% for the past week. This will come up a bit probably finishing in the 50s.

    SUN is at 123% after another rather sunny week (119.5% on average). This could leak a few points, not sure if there's much sunshine to be had today or next two days. Normal is only about 1.5 hours a day so it can't drop much.

    MAX now 12.9, MIN same as before.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,739 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Final numbers confirmed:

    IMT 6.0 (right on the button)

    PRC 54% (only Cork at 83% and Valentia 96% much above that, some locations were under 40%)

    and these were just confirmed at 1100h Thursday with MS available on met-ie website:

    MAX 12.9

    MIN --5.7

    SUN 120% (adjusted slightly from 118%, a few scores will change by 1 pt)

    So here's a look at now final scoring.


    Final scoring for January 2017


    FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___ Bonus _____ TOTALS

    pauldry ___________ 22 _ 10 _ 18 _ 08*_ 07 ____ 9 _______ 74
    mickger844posts(-2)_ 19 _ 11 _ 17 _ 11*_ 10 ____ 8 __ 76-2=74
    Jpmarn ___________ 18 _ 06 _ 18 _ 13*_ 09 ____ 6 _______ 70
    Tae laidir __________24 _ 11 _ 14 _ 02*_ 07 ___ 10 _______ 68
    200motels__ (-5) ___ 20 _ 10 _ 15 _ 09*_ 10 ____ 5 __ 69-5=64

    Con Sensus ________ 18 _ 10 _ 12 _ 05*_ 08 ____ 6 _______ 59

    John Mac __________16 _ 09 _ 17 _ 05*_ 08 ____ 3 _______ 58
    Lumi _____________ 19 _ 11 _ 12 _ 05*_ 04 ____ 6 _______ 57
    Rameire _ (-3) _____ 22 _ 12 _ 09 _ 07*_ 07 ____ 3 __ 60-3=57
    dasa29 ___________ 13 _ 11 _ 18 _ 03*_ 08 ____ 2 _______ 55
    Rikand ____________25 _ 00 _ 07 _ 04*_ 08 ___ 10 _______ 54
    Kindred Spirit ______ 15 _ 09 _ 17 _ 01*_ 07 ____ 5 _______ 54
    M.T. Cranium ______ 24 _ 04 _ 02 _ 15*_ 04 ____ 4 _______ 53
    MrSkinner _________ 17 _ 04 _ 19 _ 04*_ 04 ____ 2 _______ 50
    waterways _________23 _ 10 _ 00 _ 00*_ 07 ____ 9 _______ 49
    Bsal ______________ 06 _ 19 _ 07 _ 07*_ 06 ____ 4 _______ 49
    DOCARCH __________14 _ 17 _ 04 _ 04*_ 07 ____ 1 _______ 47
    Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 17 _ 01 _ 05 _ 10*_ 08 ____ 7 __ 48-2=46
    Sunflower 3 ________ 15 _ 00 _ 12 _ 05*_ 05 ____ 8 _______ 45
    sryanbruen _________09 _ 09 _ 00 _ 14*_ 10 ____ 1 _______ 43

    NormaL ___________ 19 _ 04 _ 07 _ 02*_ 06 ____ 5 _______ 43

    Joe Public __ (-5) ____ 04 _ 10 _ 00 _ 13*_ 07 ____ 7 __ 41-5=36
    __________________________

    * slight adjustments upward on all scores, not enough accuracy on high score to invoke the limited mercy rule (and it would have been just 1-2 pts different for the entire field anyway)

    In general, a fairly good month for scoring and not a big range of scores really, would imagine our lower scorers might be dropping this one out eventually, so on that basis, very close. Congrats to Pauldry and mickger844posts who tied for high score at 74, JPmarn in third at 70.


    (for later confirmation, forecasts ...)

    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 8th

    Jpmarn ___________ 6.7 _ 14.3 _ --5.5 _ 075 _ 125 ____ 8.5
    Tae laidir __________6.1 _ 13.8 _ --5.1 _ 100 _ 107 ___ 10.0
    Rikand ____________6.0 _ 15.0 _ --7.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 10.5
    M.T. Cranium ______ 5.9 _ 14.5 _ --7.5 _ 050 _ 150 ____ 7.7
    waterways _________5.8 _ 13.9 _ --9.5 _ 120 _ 103 ____ 9.8
    pauldry ___________ 5.7 _ 13.9 _ --5.9 _ 084 _ 107 ____ 9.7
    Rameire _ (-3) _____ 5.7 _ 13.7 _ --6.8 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 6.5
    200motels__ (-5) ___ 5.5 _ 11.9 _ --6.2 _ 083 _ 121 ____ 8.2

    NormaL ___________ 5.4 _ 14.5 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 8.2

    Lumi ______________5.4 _ 13.8 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 092 ____ 8.5
    mickger844posts_(-2)_5.4 _ 12.0 _ --6.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 9.2

    Con Sensus _________5.3 _ 13.9 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 8.5

    Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 5.2 _ 14.8 _ --7.2 _ 082 _ 110 ____ 8.9
    MrSkinner __________5.2 _ 14.5 _ --5.6 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 4.8
    John Mac __________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 6.2
    Sunflower 3 ________ 5.0 _ 15.0 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 095 ____ 9.5
    Kindred Spirit _______5.0 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 8.0
    DOCARCH __________4.9 _ 13.2 _ --7.3 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 3.7
    dasa29 ____________ 4.8 _ 12.0 _ --5.5 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 4.5
    sryanbruen _________ 4.4 _ 14.0 _ --8.0 _ 070 _ 120 ____ 4.2
    Bsal _______________4.1 _ 13.0 _ --7.0 _ 085 _ 101 ____ 7.0
    Joe Public __ (-5) ____ 3.9 _ 13.9 _ --8.9 _ 075 _ 135 ____ 8.9


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,738 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Final numbers confirmed:

    IMT 6.0 (right on the button)

    PRC 54% (only Cork at 83% and Valentia 96% much above that, some locations were under 40%)

    and these await confirmation:

    MAX 12.9

    MIN --5.7

    SUN 118%

    So here's a look at provisional scoring that will be adjusted where necessary after I can check the unconfirmed estimates in the Monthly Summary (tomorrow).


    Provisional scoring for January 2017


    FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___ Bonus _____ TOTALS

    pauldry ___________ 22 _ 10 _ 18 _ 08*_ 08 ____ 9 _______ 75
    mickger844posts(-2)_ 19 _ 11 _ 17 _ 11*_ 10 ____ 8 __ 76-2=74
    Jpmarn ___________ 18 _ 06 _ 18 _ 13*_ 09 ____ 6 _______ 70
    Tae laidir __________24 _ 11 _ 14 _ 02*_ 08 ___ 10 _______ 69
    200motels__ (-5) ___ 20 _ 10 _ 15 _ 09*_ 09 ____ 5 __ 68-5=63

    Con Sensus ________ 18 _ 10 _ 12 _ 05*_ 08 ____ 6 _______ 59

    Lumi _____________ 19 _ 11 _ 12 _ 05*_ 05 ____ 6 _______ 58
    John Mac __________16 _ 09 _ 17 _ 05*_ 08 ____ 3 _______ 58
    Rameire _ (-3) _____ 22 _ 12 _ 09 _ 07*_ 07 ____ 3 __ 60-3=57
    dasa29 ___________ 13 _ 11 _ 18 _ 03*_ 08 ____ 2 _______ 55
    Rikand ____________25 _ 00 _ 07 _ 04*_ 08 ___ 10 _______ 54
    Kindred Spirit ______ 15 _ 09 _ 17 _ 01*_ 07 ____ 5 _______ 54
    M.T. Cranium ______ 24 _ 04 _ 02 _ 15*_ 04 ____ 4 _______ 53
    MrSkinner _________ 17 _ 04 _ 19 _ 04*_ 04 ____ 2 _______ 50
    waterways _________23 _ 10 _ 00 _ 00*_ 07 ____ 9 _______ 49
    Bsal ______________ 06 _ 19 _ 07 _ 07*_ 06 ____ 4 _______ 49
    DOCARCH __________14 _ 17 _ 04 _ 04*_ 07 ____ 1 _______ 47
    Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 17 _ 01 _ 05 _ 10*_ 08 ____ 7 __ 48-2=46
    Sunflower 3 ________ 15 _ 00 _ 12 _ 05*_ 05 ____ 8 _______ 45
    sryanbruen _________09 _ 09 _ 00 _ 14*_ 10 ____ 1 _______ 43

    NormaL ___________ 19 _ 04 _ 07 _ 02*_ 06 ____ 5 _______ 43

    Joe Public __ (-5) ____ 04 _ 10 _ 00 _ 13*_ 07 ____ 7 __ 41-5=36
    __________________________

    * slight adjustments upward on all scores, not enough accuracy on high score to invoke the limited mercy rule (and it would have been just 1-2 pts different for the entire field anyway)

    In general, a fairly good month for scoring and not a big range of scores really, would imagine our lower scorers might be dropping this one out eventually, so on that basis, very close. Watch for the updated table to appear tomorrow. I hope the changes will be very minor. Congrats to Pauldry and mickger844posts at the moment.


    (for later confirmation, forecasts ...)

    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 8th

    Jpmarn ___________ 6.7 _ 14.3 _ --5.5 _ 075 _ 125 ____ 8.5
    Tae laidir __________6.1 _ 13.8 _ --5.1 _ 100 _ 107 ___ 10.0
    Rikand ____________6.0 _ 15.0 _ --7.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 10.5
    M.T. Cranium ______ 5.9 _ 14.5 _ --7.5 _ 050 _ 150 ____ 7.7
    waterways _________5.8 _ 13.9 _ --9.5 _ 120 _ 103 ____ 9.8
    pauldry ___________ 5.7 _ 13.9 _ --5.9 _ 084 _ 107 ____ 9.7
    Rameire _ (-3) _____ 5.7 _ 13.7 _ --6.8 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 6.5
    200motels__ (-5) ___ 5.5 _ 11.9 _ --6.2 _ 083 _ 121 ____ 8.2

    NormaL ___________ 5.4 _ 14.5 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 8.2

    Lumi ______________5.4 _ 13.8 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 092 ____ 8.5
    mickger844posts_(-2)_5.4 _ 12.0 _ --6.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 9.2

    Con Sensus _________5.3 _ 13.9 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 8.5

    Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 5.2 _ 14.8 _ --7.2 _ 082 _ 110 ____ 8.9
    MrSkinner __________5.2 _ 14.5 _ --5.6 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 4.8
    John Mac __________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 6.2
    Sunflower 3 ________ 5.0 _ 15.0 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 095 ____ 9.5
    Kindred Spirit _______5.0 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 8.0
    DOCARCH __________4.9 _ 13.2 _ --7.3 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 3.7
    dasa29 ____________ 4.8 _ 12.0 _ --5.5 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 4.5
    sryanbruen _________ 4.4 _ 14.0 _ --8.0 _ 070 _ 120 ____ 4.2
    Bsal _______________4.1 _ 13.0 _ --7.0 _ 085 _ 101 ____ 7.0
    Joe Public __ (-5) ____ 3.9 _ 13.9 _ --8.9 _ 075 _ 135 ____ 8.9

    Of course, how coincidental is that, two Januaries straight I have forecasted very poorly :P, though I'm still much better than I did in 2016 so I'm proud of myself for that :P:P.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,511 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    I thought I'd do better after nailing the imt and the bonus. Ah well


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,739 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Rikand wrote: »
    I thought I'd do better after nailing the imt and the bonus. Ah well

    We had the same basic problem, a reasonable MAX for a mild January but the month never drew in that sort of air mass.

    So in general folks, I have finalized the scoring table above, the only very minor change was that sunshine calculated out at 120% rather than my estimate of 118% and this changed a few scores by one point up or down, not very many (most people go with multiples of 5 and those wouldn't change in this case). And I carefully checked the scoring on MAX and MIN, and added them all up one more time.

    February table is posted, onwards and upwards.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    It was not a NormaL month!


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