Champions Cup permutations 2016/17 after Round 4

thomond2006

2.3 The five pool winners and three best-placed runners-up will qualify for the quarter-finals and will be decided as follows:
(a) The pool winner will be the club with the highest number of match points in each pool. The best-placed runners-up will be the three clubs with the highest number of match points out of the five clubs that finish second in their respective pools. For the quarter-finals, the pool winners will be ranked 1 to 5 and the best-placed runners-up ranked 6th, 7th and 8th by reference to the number of match points earned.

(b) If two clubs in the same pool are equal on match points at the end of the pool stage, their ranking will be determined by the results of the two matches played between the relevant clubs as follows:
(i) the club with the greater number of match points from the two matches; or
(ii) if equal, the club with the best aggregate points difference from the two matches; or
(iii) if equal, the club that scored the most tries in the two matches.

(c) If ranking remains unresolved and/or if clubs have not played each other previously in the pool stage, qualification/ranking will be determined as follows:
(i) the best aggregate points difference from the pool stage; or
(ii) if equal, the number of tries scored in the pool stage; or
(iii) if equal, the club with the fewest number of players suspended under Disciplinary Rules in the pool stage; or
(iv) if unresolved, by drawing lots.

KNOCKOUT STAGE
2.4 The clubs ranked 1 to 4 will have home advantage for the quarter-finals as follows:
Club 1 v Club 8 (QF1)
Club 4 v Club 5 (QF2)
Club 3 v Club 6 (QF3)
Club 2 v Club 7 (QF4)

NB The format for the semi-final matches in the Champions Cup recognises performances by clubs during the pool stages as well as the achievement of clubs winning quarter-final matches away from home.

The winner of QF1 will play the winner of QF2 in one semi-final, and the winner of QF3 will play the winner of QF4 in the other semi-final as follows:

Semi-final 1: winner QF1 v winner QF2
Semi-final 2: winner QF3 v winner QF4

http://www.epcrugby.com/europeanrugbychampionscup/rules.php

Team denotes a impossible or highly unlikely to qualify for the Heineken Cup knockouts.

(#) denotes the points difference, the rules above indicate that points difference is the first differential used to separate teams from different pools that have the same points.

Pool 1:
Glasgow 13 (+33)
Munster 11 (+57) Game in hand
Leicester 8 (-55)
Racing 0 (-35) Game in hand

Racing vs Munster

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Glasgow vs Munster
Racing vs Tigers

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Munster vs Racing
Tigers vs Glasgow

3 wins for Munster will see them top the pool. They will fancy to earn at least 9 points vs Racing. Leicester could make things difficult for Glasgow at home. Munster to gain 10 points from their 3 matches and finish ahead of Glasgow due to a superior head-to-head (5-0 in Limerick, 4-1 in Glasgow).

Pool 2:
Wasps 13 (+81)
Toulouse 13 (+67)
Connacht 13 (+34)
Zebre 0 (-182)

Connacht vs Zebre
Wasps vs Toulouse

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Toulouse vs Connacht
Zebre vs Wasps

Zebre have been a training session game for the other three sides. It would be a massive upset if Zebre do not give up 5 points away to Connacht or at home to Wasps. This leaves Toulouse in a difficult spot. Wasps are in the best position as they host Toulouse. They should earn 9 points minimum to top the pool with 22 points.

Pool 3:
Saracens 18 (+87)
Toulon 10 (+12)
Scarlets 8 (-11)
Sale 0 (-88)

Toulon vs Sale
Saracens vs Scarlets

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Saracens vs Toulon
Scarlets vs Sale

Toulon will have 15 points when they travel to Saracens in Round 6. However odds aren't in their favour to get the necessary win. Saracens to top the pool and be the only qualifier.

Pool 4:
Leinster 16 (+86)
Montpellier 11 (+16)
Castres 9 (+4)
Saints 4 (-106)

Leinster vs Montpellier
Saints vs Castres

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Castres vs Leinster
Montpellier vs Saints

Leinster are on course to top the pool and earn a home QF. Montpellier's attitude will determine the difficulty of the Round 5, if they did win in Dublin in Round 5 then they should qualify with the hapless Saints at home in Round 6. However Leinster should win comfortably at home. Castres in Round 6 is a winnable game to finish the pool stages.

Pool 5:
Clermont 17 (+55)
Bordeaux 9 (-3)
Ulster 9 (-26)
Exeter 6 (-26)

Bordeaux vs Clermont
Exeter vs Ulster

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Ulster vs Bordeaux
Clermont vs Exeter

Exeter are out of contention so Ulster should feel confident of a win. Bordeaux should be eliminated by Clermont in Round 5 so they will send the dirttrackers to Belfast in Round 6. Clermont to the top the pool and Ulster to qualify as a runner-up.

SEEDING PREDICTION

1. Saracens (27)
2. Clermont (26)
3. Leinster (24)
4. Wasps (22)
5. Munster (21)

---

6. Glasgow (21)
7. Connacht (19)
8. Ulster (18)

In the above case, here are the Quarter-Finals:

1 v 8: Saracens vs Ulster
2 v 7: Clermont vs Connacht
3 v 6: Leinster vs Glasgow
4 v 5: Wasps vs Munster

If anything looks incorrect, please let me know!

former total

Just posted this in the other thread; came up with the exact same ranking:

So, after round 4 I'm predicting:

1. Saracens
2. Clermont
3. Leinster
4. Wasps
5. Munster
6. Glasgow
7. Toulouse/Connacht
8. Ulster

If Montpellier lose at the RDS in round 5, and assuming Toulon can't beat Saracens in London in round 6, the bar for qualifying as runner up could be as low as 17 points.

This is good for Ulster if they can win in Exeter in round 5, but bad for Connacht as it means Toulouse will definitely be in the hunt come round 6.

But the prospect of four Irish teams and five Pro12 in the quarters is dizzying.

thomond2006

I'm assuming Connacht get a LBP at Toulouse. A toss-up really.

timaru89

4 Irish would be some return!

Tigerandahalf

I don't think Ulster will qualify. I see Exeter beating them at home. Bordeaux could also take Clermont at home (as is the French tradition), that would leave Bordeaux potentially qualifying from a trip to Belfast (Ulster could be already out). But are Bordeaux really bothered?

Going by your predictions Thomond that is a very poor return for the English and French sides - 2 and a single representative.

I'd like to see a Scottish side make it - Glasgow do play a good brand and with better ground in the spring they could surprise.

The Welsh really need to sort themselves out.

What will happen if there are only 2 English sides in the final 8? Presume another re brand will be on the cards along with stricter qualification from the pro12, a new TV deal and a new salary cap for the prem teams to ignore?

errlloyd

Excellent work Thomond.

The pro12 teams in general would bite your hand off for that sort of return. A Leinster Clermont semi final in France would be an away trip that I would go on and be happy to lose to be honest.

I think for Connacht fans a trip to the Stade Marcel Michelin would also be the best away quarter final going, not because it's winnable (it'd be very tough), but because it's probably the most amazing European experience.

stephen_n

So if that pans out Leinster are pretty much going to be playing an Irish team in the quarters.

molloyjh

One thing to note about Pool 2 is that after Round 5 you'd imagine it would be:

Connacht: 18pts
Wasps: 17pts
Toulouse: 14pts

That would leave Connacht only 4 points clear of Toulouse with a trip to France to follow. Wasps might be able to do Connacht a favour by preventing Toulouse getting a LBP, but Toulouse have it all to play for against them. The Westerners trip to France is going to be a nervy one because if Toulouse win and both end up on 18-19pts then Toulouse could easily have the upper hand based on the head to heads (Connacht only won by 2 in Galway and only scored 1 extra try). Connacht will almost certainly need a point from that one.

.ak

Okay, I'm confused...

I understand that the seedings will determine who gets a home semi, but how do they work out who plays who?

If for example Thomond is right with the below, and say the bolded teams win, who plays who?

1 v 8: Saracens vs Ulster
2 v 7: Clermont vs Connacht
3 v 6: Leinster vs Glasgow
4 v 5: Wasps vs Munster


Would that mean Leinster travel to Clermont and Munster travel to Sarries?

former total

.ak wrote: »

Okay, I'm confused...

I understand that the seedings will determine who gets a home semi, but how do they work out who plays who?

If for example Thomond is right with the below, and say the bolded teams win, who plays who?

1 v 8: Saracens vs Ulster
2 v 7: Clermont vs Connacht
3 v 6: Leinster vs Glasgow
4 v 5: Wasps vs Munster


Would that mean Leinster travel to Clermont and Munster travel to Sarries?

Leinster would go to Clermont but Munster would have home advantage against Saracens.

errlloyd

.ak wrote: »

Okay, I'm confused...

I understand that the seedings will determine who gets a home semi, but how do they work out who plays who?

If for example Thomond is right with the below, and say the bolded teams win, who plays who?

1 v 8: Saracens vs Ulster
2 v 7: Clermont vs Connacht
3 v 6: Leinster vs Glasgow
4 v 5: Wasps vs Munster


Would that mean Leinster travel to Clermont and Munster travel to Sarries?

In that situation I believe Saracens would travel to Munster.

The home semi will go to the highest ranked team who didn't have a home quarter.

irishbucsfan

former total wrote: »

Leinster would go to Clermont but Munster would have home advantage against Saracens.

Now I'm confused. It's QF1 v QF2 and QF3 v QF4 so why would Leinster go to Clermont?

errlloyd

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Now I'm confused. It's QF1 v QF2 and QF3 v QF4 so why would Leinster go to Clermont?

Somebody mislabeled the quarter finalists.

Club 1 v Club 8 (QF1) (Saracens v Ulster)
Club 4 v Club 5 (QF2) (Wasps v Munster)

Club 3 v Club 6 (QF3) (Leinster v Glasgow)
Club 2 v Club 7 (QF4) (Clermont v Connacht)

irishbucsfan

errlloyd wrote: »

Somebody mislabeled the quarter finalists.

Club 1 v Club 8 (QF1) (Saracens v Ulster)
Club 4 v Club 5 (QF2) (Wasps v Munster)

Club 3 v Club 6 (QF3) (Leinster v Glasgow)
Club 2 v Club 7 (QF4) (Clermont v Connacht)

Ah yes, that's what I was missing. Cheers

Didn't realise they'd changed the rule on who gets a home semi. I don't really care for it tbh. But it means getting in the top two seeds is really valuable. Have Leinster any chance of the with two more wins?
Edit, probably not reading through the OP.

former total

Felipe Wide Martinet wrote: »

Didn't realise they'd changed the rule on who gets a home semi. I don't really care for it tbh. But it means getting in the top two seeds is really valuable. Have Leinster any chance of the with two more wins?
Edit, probably not reading through the OP.

Clermont have to travel to Bordeaux in round 5, we need Bordeaux to care enough to try to win. Otherwise, no hope.

irishbucsfan

Felipe Wide Martinet wrote: »

Didn't realise they'd changed the rule on who gets a home semi. I don't really care for it tbh. But it means getting in the top two seeds is really valuable. Have Leinster any chance of the with two more wins?
Edit, probably not reading through the OP.

Getting in top two seeds does nothing for you if the away team wins a QF though. The change is there partly to ensure that as many teams as possible get a home knockout game. Better than a random draw for me.

.ak

errlloyd wrote: »

In that situation I believe Saracens would travel to Munster.

The home semi will go to the highest ranked team who didn't have a home quarter.

Huh.. Why? What's the logic there?

If I was a sarries fan I'd be raging over that. How does that reward their performances at all?

errlloyd

Felipe Wide Martinet wrote: »

Didn't realise they'd changed the rule on who gets a home semi. I don't really care for it tbh. But it means getting in the top two seeds is really valuable. Have Leinster any chance of the with two more wins?
Edit, probably not reading through the OP.

I actually don't like it, because there are many scenarios when coming fifth / sixth is preferable to coming to third / fourth if you want to go on and win it. Third and Fourth are the only positions guaranteed an away semi.

For example, in the above scenario Leinster would probably end up home to Glasgow and away to Clermont - I think we'd all rather go away to Glasgow and be at home to Clermont, which is effectively what Glasgow will get by coming 6th.

irishbucsfan

errlloyd wrote: »

I actually don't like it, because there are many scenarios when coming fifth / sixth is preferable to coming to third / fourth if you want to go on and win it. Third and Fourth are the only positions guaranteed an away semi.

For example, in the above scenario Leinster would probably end up home to Glasgow and away to Clermont - I think we'd all rather go away to Glasgow and be at home to Clermont, which is effectively what Glasgow will get by coming 6th.

After a home quarter final... Do you know how many teams win away quarter finals?

Sure you can create individual scenarios where it'd be preferable but overall it's a far better system.

irishbucsfan

.ak wrote: »

Huh.. Why? What's the logic there?

If I was a sarries fan I'd be raging over that. How does that reward their performances at all?

Everyone gets a home knockout game.

It's not supposed to completely reward performances, you're missing the intention.

former total

.ak wrote: »

Huh.. Why? What's the logic there?

If I was a sarries fan I'd be raging over that. How does that reward their performances at all?

Because Saracens get their reward by having their quarter at home and, on the balance of probability, also their semi at home.

If you can win an away quarter final, given how rare it is, does that not also deserve reward?

I think it's a good system.

irishbucsfan

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Getting in top two seeds does nothing for you if the away team wins a QF though. The change is there partly to ensure that as many teams as possible get a home knockout game. Better than a random draw for me.

I didn't realise that either, just read through the link above. Away QF wins are quite rare so not sure how much impact it'll have. If there aren't away wins you're just handing already the best team yet another advantage is how I'm seeing it. Nice incentive to win your away QF though I suppose.

The draw was equally fair on everyone. I prefer that system.

irishbucsfan

Felipe Wide Martinet wrote: »

I didn't realise that either, just read through the link above. Away QF wins are quite rare so not sure how much impact it'll have. If there aren't away wins you're just handing already the best team yet another advantage is how I'm seeing it. Nice incentive to win your away QF though I suppose.

Yes if you have a situation where two teams who have had a home quarter final come up against each other in the semi final, then the higher seeded team get a home semi final. Either a nice inventive to win your away QF or a nice incentive to get in the top 2 seedings.

It all came down to a random draw before.

errlloyd

irishbucsfan wrote: »

After a home quarter final... Do you know how many teams win away quarter finals?

Sure you can create individual scenarios where it'd be preferable but overall it's a far better system.

I believe it is almost exactly 25% over the last few years. In fact it is a written in stone rule.

All I am saying is that for the purposes of winning the competition you would prefer to have your harder game at home, and easier game away. Now you could argue (and it would be reasonable and I would probably agree) that the semi final isn't quite a home match for the host team.

And for the record, the current system is much better than the previous one.

irishbucsfan

errlloyd wrote: »

I believe it is almost exactly 25% over the last few years. In fact it is a written in stone rule.

All I am saying is that for the purposes of winning the competition you would prefer to have your harder game at home, and easier game away. Now you could argue (and it would be reasonable and I would probably agree) that the semi final isn't quite a home match for the host team.

And for the record, the current system is much better than the previous one.

I am sure that for the purposes of winning the competition, teams in the knockouts would rather take the game they are guaranteed to be playing in at home and then deal with the away semi once they've actually managed to qualify for it.

errlloyd

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I am sure that for the purposes of winning the competition, teams in the knockouts would rather take the game they are guaranteed to be playing in at home and then deal with the away semi once they've actually managed to qualify for it.

Fair enough, we disagree so. :pac:

durkadurka

Can you check saracens fixtures? Surely not both at home?

corny

durkadurka wrote: »

Can you check saracens fixtures? Surely not both at home?

Yeah Sarries are away to the Scalets in round 5.

awec

I couldn't take being knocked out by Saracens again. I'd rather get knocked out on the pool than play them.

thomond2006

awec wrote: »

I couldn't take being knocked out by Saracens again. I'd rather get knocked out on the pool than play them.

I'm surprised I'm still not banned for predicting that.

NiallBoo

I asked this in another thread before spotting this one, oops:

Quick question:

Anywhere I've looked has the Pool 2 rankings as...
|Team|Diff|TF|Pts
1|Wasps | +81 |20 |13
2|Toulouse| +67|17 |13
3|Connacht| +34 |15 |13


Is this correct?

The rules say...

Where teams have played each other:

• The club with the greater number of competition points from only matches involving tied teams.
• If equal, the club with the best aggregate points difference from those matches.
• If equal, the club that scored the most tries in those matches.

That would put Connacht ahead of Toulouse (for now) (ie. 1. wasps, 2. Conn, 3. tou)

Am I mixing things up? Do those criteria only apply to tie-breakers for overall seeding, and not seeding within the pool?

(ps. I know it's a pointless question when there's still matches to be played. I'm just curious, am I reading the wrong rules or are the people that update the EPCR website not aware of their own rules)

DGRulz

NiallBoo wrote: »

I asked this in another thread before spotting this one, oops:

Quick question:

Anywhere I've looked has the Pool 2 rankings as...
|Team|Diff|TF|Pts
1|Wasps | +81 |20 |13
2|Toulouse| +67|17 |13
3|Connacht| +34 |15 |13


Is this correct?

The rules say...


That would put Connacht ahead of Toulouse (for now) (ie. 1. wasps, 2. Conn, 3. tou)

Am I mixing things up? Do those criteria only apply to tie-breakers for overall seeding, and not seeding within the pool?

(ps. I know it's a pointless question when there's still matches to be played. I'm just curious, am I reading the wrong rules or are the people that update the EPCR website not aware of their own rules)

Ultimate Rugby lists it as
| TEAM
1|Connacht|
2|Wasps |
3|Toulouse|

former total

NiallBoo wrote: »

Am I mixing things up? Do those criteria only apply to tie-breakers for overall seeding, and not seeding within the pool?

(ps. I know it's a pointless question when there's still matches to be played. I'm just curious, am I reading the wrong rules or are the people that update the EPCR website not aware of their own rules)

In the final shake-up, if Toulouse and Connacht are level on points, then it will go on match points earned head-to-head. So Toulouse's losing BP in Galway might yet be crucial.

NiallBoo

former total wrote: »

In the final shake-up, if Toulouse and Connacht are level on points, then it will go on match points earned head-to-head. So Toulouse's losing BP in Galway might yet be crucial.

Yup, it's likely that Connacht will have to beat toulouse (or unlikely stuff like losing by exactly one point)

molloyjh

NiallBoo wrote: »

Yup, it's likely that Connacht will have to beat toulouse (or unlikely stuff like losing by exactly one point)

Not necessarily. A lot will depend on the Wasps-Toulouse game. Connacht may not need anything from that game to get through.

If Wasps can deny Toulouse the LBP (and assuming Connacht get the TBP vs Zebre) then Toulouse need to get a TBP win over Connacht. Deny them that and Connacht are through OR get a LBP and Connacht are through.

If Toulouse get the LBP in Coventry then Connacht need to prevent Toulouse getting the TBP in the last game AND they need to get a LBP themselves (a draw or a win for Connacht would do equally of course).

If Toulouse get more than 1 point in Coventry (i.e. get a LBP and TBP OR draw) then Connacht are in trouble. If Toulouse win then they need to better the Wasps result against Toulouse.

Simples.

connemara man

molloyjh wrote: »

Not necessarily. A lot will depend on the Wasps-Toulouse game. Connacht may not need anything from that game to get through.

If Wasps can deny Toulouse the LBP (and assuming Connacht get the TBP vs Zebre) then Toulouse need to get a TBP win over Connacht. Deny them that and Connacht are through OR get a LBP and Connacht are through.

If Toulouse get the LBP in Coventry then Connacht need to prevent Toulouse getting the TBP in the last game AND they need to get a LBP themselves (a draw or a win for Connacht would do equally of course).

If Toulouse get more than 1 point in Coventry (i.e. get a LBP and TBP OR draw) then Connacht are in trouble. If Toulouse win then they need to better the Wasps result against Toulouse.

Simples.

That hurt my head!

molloyjh

connemara man wrote: »

That hurt my head!

Basically cheer your ass off for Wasps to win by 8 or more. Then stop Toulouse getting 4 tries. Job done.

wp_rathead

Suddenly letting Toulouse get a LBP is coming back to haunt us

Lancey Howard

Any idea when dates and times will be announced for rounds 5&6?

LostArt

It's usually this week

thomond2006

Can I change my prediction that Ulster will qualify?

Digifriendly

thomond2006 wrote: »

Can I change my prediction that Ulster will qualify?

I'm an Ulster fan and I don't think they will win at Exeter who are a much better side now than when Ulster edged them at home. I can see Bordeaux beating Clermont but losing away to Ulster so IMHO only Clermont will qualify from this pool.

So Leinster are qualified and now have a massive points difference advantage over basically everyone. I don't think it's unreasonable to think a BP is possible next weekend with Castres likely to be out of the competition.

If that transpires, we desperately need Clermont to not get two BP wins, because if they don't Leinster could end up in a coveted top 2 seed spot which could well mean a home QF and if that were won a home SF.

corny

Felipe Wide Martinet wrote: »

So Leinster are qualified and now have a massive points difference advantage over basically everyone. I don't think it's unreasonable to think a BP is possible next weekend with Castres likely to be out of the competition.

If that transpires, we desperately need Clermont to not get two BP wins, because if they don't Leinster could end up in a coveted top 2 seed spot which could well mean a home QF and if that were won a home SF.

Doesn't have to be Clermont. I'm not sure Saracens are the same side they were last year. Take out the Vunipolas too..... Scarlets have a chance.

Bridge93

Yeah if my maths is right if Leinster get 5 next week and clermont only pick up one more bonus point Leinster could come second on points difference

Bridge93

corny wrote: »

Doesn't have to be Clermont. I'm not sure Saracens are the same side they were last year. Take out the Vunipolas too..... Scarlets have a chance.

I've money on the Scarlets with the 9 point handicap

gamma001

corny wrote: »

Doesn't have to be Clermont. I'm not sure Saracens are the same side they were last year. Take out the Vunipolas too..... Scarlets have a chance.

Would be even nicer if Leinster and Muster get two BP wins, while both Sarries and Clermont drop points. That could potentially mean we finish first and second seeds

But maybe that is a bit too optimistic. Still possible, however.

corny

corny wrote: »

Doesn't have to be Clermont. I'm not sure Saracens are the same side they were last year. Take out the Vunipolas too..... Scarlets have a chance.

Yeah fair enough, they're on 18 though so need Scarlets to win that one. Saracens are a machine so just can't really see it. Was thinking Clermont not picking up a BP away might be a better bet.

Having said that, it's a strong Scarlets team and they've been very good at home recently.

vienne86

Bridge93 wrote: »

Yeah if my maths is right if Leinster get 5 next week and clermont only pick up one more bonus point Leinster could come second on points difference

Could be difficult for Leinster - Castres are certainly up for t in the gardens. 21-21 right now.