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Why does Bertie Ahern wish to return to politics?

  • 12-12-2016 9:24pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭


    From a Reddit post I made on the topic recently.

    Ever since the announcement that Bertie had been taken back into the fold in Dublin Central, the question that has been on everybody's lips is "Why?". It is not like he is in want of extra finances, or that he is struggling in his current lifestyle. He receives annual pension payments of €152,331, so it is not like he is already needing to resort to the dole in his retirement.

    This re-entry into politics is not the act of a few men in the Drumcondra Mafia either, no no. Bertie has already starting to speak out on anything and everything that turns up on the front page of the papers. Since this announcement, he has already began talking about Brexit. In an interview with Newstalk, he said: "I do think we have to take a fairly aggressive negotiating position on this."
    "I know the DUP took an anti position - they were 'outers'. But I think if we're to see a proper negotiation in this - whether it's the Norwegian model in the end, or the Swiss model, or the Turkish model - whatever it is, it's in the interest of everyone in the island that we have a good agreement out of this.

    "It's not going to be easy [...] The EU are not going to roll over very easy on this. So it's going to be difficult negotiations - and of course I support the Government's efforts to get a good deal," he added.

    Mr Ahern argued that there 'probably is nothing' since Ireland joined the EU that 'has been as big as this for the country'.
    These are not the words of a man, who wishes to stay out of the limelight, and out of Irish politics.

    So we must ask ourselves, what could Bertie Ahern possibly want out of Governmental politics that he hasn't done already. He has been Minister for Arts, Culture and the Gaeltacht, Minister for Labour, Minister for Industry and Commerce and Ministry for Finance.
    Not to mention he has been Leader of the Opposition for 4 years, and Taoiseach for over 10 years!

    Well, from what I can see there is really only 2 possibilities:
    ________________________________
    No. 1 - He wants to challenge Michael Martin for Leader of Fianna Fail again

    This is very unlikely, as any leadership challenge in the current climate would fail. It is not impossible, however, that he is delusional enough that he has a chance to be Taoiseach again, now that Fianna Fail have now returned back to strength following the crash. We only have to look at another one of his actions recently, where, in direct contrast to Michael Martin, he says that he understands Adams’s refusal to give to the Garda the name of a senior IRA official
    Mr Ahern yesterday said Mr Adams, a TD and the president of Sinn Féin, had co-operated with the Garda on numerous occasions in the past. **The former taoiseach said Mr Adams will always assist if he can.**

    “There are implications always from breaching some of the things from the past,” Mr Ahern said. “I warned about this 16 or 17 years ago when I argued that we should have a peace and truth commission. I floated that one, but the kite fell flat. There was no takers.”
    Mr Ahern said he also understands the predicament of the Stack family. One of Mr Stack’s sons, Austin, confronted Mr Adams at a Sinn Féin press conference in Dublin last week, urging him to tell the truth about the matter.

    “Putting the circumstances of today into the circumstances of 30 years ago or in the Troubles is more complex than people try to understand,” Mr Ahern said.

    Again, not the words of a man who wishes to remain idle. Here he places himself and Adams together, to make sure that everybody is reminded that they are the ones who brought peace to Northern Ireland, and thus, his diplomatic skills are obviously needed.

    Now, as I said before, I really really doubt that he has any hope of toppling Martin from power, and I really doubt he wants to get back into that style of politics anymore. In his final years in the Dail, he never turned up, and when he did, he looked like a bored child in class. Which leads me onto my second possibility.

    ________________________________________________
    No. 2 - He has his eyes set on the Áras

    This, I think, is the most likely option that he has begun his grand return into Irish politics. The Presidency would the crown to a great political legacy, and he truly see's himself lounging in the Park. We don't even have to go back all that far to see that this is his true desire. Back when the 2011 campaign was raging, he himself said that "I would have run for President and ‘done alright’"
    In an interview with Dublin City University’s radio station, DCUfm, Ahern said the party’s popularity – or lack thereof – “snookered” any possible bid.

    “Well I think if the party popularity didn’t go south, I mean I still would have done alright,” he said.
    Asked by student broadcaster Barry Linehan if he has a chance of ever landing in the Phoenix Park, Ahern said:

    I think it would have been [the perfect job for me] in the normal case of events. If there was no downturn and if it wasn’t [for] all the hassle of the tribunals and everything else, then you could have a good run at it.

    He said the party had already crunched the numbers, placing his support at about 30 per cent and the party’s at just 20 per cent.

    He is dying to get in there, and there really is no other political position that he could possibly want. Any other would be far too much effort. I would imagine that he would LOOOOVE to be the one that brought Northern Ireland back into the fold, considering he was one of the main people behind the GFA. And being fair, it isn't an unrealistic prospect. Considering that the presidential election is in 2018, and looking at the way Brexit is going, we could have a United Ireland under Bertie.

    TL:DR Bertie has some underlying motives for returning into politics, considering his actions in the last few weeks. He may want to challenge Martin for Leader, but more likely than not, he is looking at running for President in 2018, as he previously expressed he thought it would be the perfect job for him.


Comments

  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Im guessing its a mix of boredom, nostalgia and the fact that power is seductive.

    I cant see this as anything other than Bertie foisting himself on FF, with a few loyal supporters trying to genuinely believe that it was all on track until Brian Cowen came along.

    Also, in order to survive in politics one needs a considerable talent for self deception. Bertie has this in abundance.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 20,651 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    "Sure wasn't the country in fine fettle when he handed it over to Cowan. Wasnt Bertie's fault it all went to pot. Bertie could get the place back to BOOM in no time. "

    I'd say this is very close to the deluded narrative ticking away on Bertie's head.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,681 ✭✭✭ziggy


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,066 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Presidency, no other logical explanation.
    Please go away. Stick to the gardening.


  • Registered Users Posts: 43,274 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    He's addicted to politics, probably a bit bit lost outside the Dail.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,371 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    I'm not sure even Bertie is deluded enough to think he has much of a chance at the Áras - and I don't think he'd be willing to risk the humiliation of running and failing.

    It seems more likely (to me at least), that Bertie dreams of being seen in the way Garrett Fitz was revered within FG over the past decade - the revered elder statesman who will occasionally be turned to for some sage advice. It's probably how Bertie imagines himself, he's just waiting for the country to get over the hurt of the recession and come around to loving him again!


    I think Bertie believes himself to be Ireland's greatest ever statesman (and TBH, if he'd stepped down sometime circa 2004-2005 he might have gotten away with that legacy as well :eek:)

    Remember how he was seen as the great negotiator/diplomat at one stage? Good Friday Agreement, EU Constitution, Social Partnership - all things that were successfully spun as being results of how Bertie was so, so good at getting people to compromise and reach agreement.
    Whilst we've now seen how the EU Constitution fared, and the disasterous consequences of much of what he signed up to in the Social Partnership agreements, if he had stepped away whilst all of those still looked rosy, he might be viewed very differently. Hell, he might even have managed to avoid much of the scrutiny of his financial "situation."
    Imagine how differently we might view Bertie if he'd stepped aside 2/3 years earlier - how much of the flack might he have managed to dodge?


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,066 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The present boy, EK, might want to take the hint. Do they ever?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,295 ✭✭✭Lt Dan


    Because he is great .

    He wants to be President. Maybe even a role in Europe


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    ziggy wrote: »
    This post has been deleted.
    ... although in fairness, we were going to crash no matter who was in power as a result of the US economic collapse. IIRC, it was Cowen who made the mistake of believing we were insulated and failed to react properly to the crisis brewing in the US.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Irish reaction to the US economic crash was a major factor in how bad the Irish crash was; but there was nothing we could have done to insulate ourselves from it.
    Conversely, there is nothing to suggest that the Irish crash was imminent without the analogous issues popping up in the US and other countries.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,286 ✭✭✭✭Collie D


    I'd love to see him run for President just to see the hiding he'd get at the polls. I'd say there is not a hope in hell FF want him anywhere near them bar the usual sycophants in Drumcondra.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,371 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    ... although in fairness, we were going to crash no matter who was in power as a result of the US economic collapse. IIRC, it was Cowen who made the mistake of believing we were insulated and failed to react properly to the crisis brewing in the US.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Irish reaction to the US economic crash was a major factor in how bad the Irish crash was; but there was nothing we could have done to insulate ourselves from it.
    Conversely, there is nothing to suggest that the Irish crash was imminent without the analogous issues popping up in the US and other countries.

    Whilst it's true to say that we were always going to be impacted to the US economic collapse, it wasn't just our reaction that caused things to be so bad in Ireland.

    The preceding years of giveaway budgets caused more of our issues than the response did. Bertie's governance lead to the structural deficit where massive levels of current expenditure were being financed by capital and property-fueled taxes. More prudence from Bertie and his government would have had us in a much stronger starting position when the US began to weaken.

    Of course, the counter-argument that could be made is that if Bertie/FF had implemented more prudent policies, then the electorate would have turfed them out earlier in favour of someone else promising the spending.
    Noonan was overwhelmingly rejected by the electorate when he tried to push a more restrained economic approach (although how much of that was down to his economic policies, and how much was down to his personal unpopularity is debateable), so it's hard to know how well a more conservative approach would have been taken by voters. It's quite possible that Bertie's popularity came down to his propensity for telling people what they wanted to hear - and not always what they needed to hear.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    blackwhite wrote: »
    Whilst it's true to say that we were always going to be impacted to the US economic collapse, it wasn't just our reaction that caused things to be so bad in Ireland.

    The preceding years of giveaway budgets caused more of our issues than the response did. Bertie's governance lead to the structural deficit where massive levels of current expenditure were being financed by capital and property-fueled taxes. More prudence from Bertie and his government would have had us in a much stronger starting position when the US began to weaken.

    Of course, the counter-argument that could be made is that if Bertie/FF had implemented more prudent policies, then the electorate would have turfed them out earlier in favour of someone else promising the spending.
    Noonan was overwhelmingly rejected by the electorate when he tried to push a more restrained economic approach (although how much of that was down to his economic policies, and how much was down to his personal unpopularity is debateable), so it's hard to know how well a more conservative approach would have been taken by voters. It's quite possible that Bertie's popularity came down to his propensity for telling people what they wanted to hear - and not always what they needed to hear.
    In theory I do not disagree with you, but I'm not sure how more prudent spending would have done anything to change the situation - we would simply have been able to spend all the money we saved instead of borrowing it. It's not exactly a huge difference in the grand scheme of things.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,371 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    In theory I do not disagree with you, but I'm not sure how more prudent spending would have done anything to change the situation - we would simply have been able to spend all the money we saved instead of borrowing it. It's not exactly a huge difference in the grand scheme of things.

    More prudent spending would have meant that we didn't have a gap of over €20bn between current expenditures and incomes that needed to be plugged in addition to the banking fallout.
    If was simply a case of taking on the bailout debt without also needing an additional €20bn PA just to keep the country running then the GOvt would have had a hell of a lot more options open to them in 2008-2013.


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