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Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2016/2017 ?

  • 02-11-2016 11:44am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 Redsunset


    Hi Folks,

    Things are looking somewhat promising for a SSW event this winter, so we shall keep a watch and see can enough disruption be caused to the Polar Vortex and aid cold towards the lower latitudes, hopefully our direction.

    Firstly the trend is a negative AO to continue as warmer air gets push into the pole.

    aosprd2.gif



    Next image, keep an eye an the climb, we need this red line to keep going north, currently at about record warmth for the time of year.

    30mb9065.png

    pole30_nh.gif




    Very Good negative wind anomoly so far

    time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_OND_NH_2016.png


    More later.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 581 ✭✭✭ Captain Snow


    Any updates Redsunset.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Temperatures over the North Pole are looking like warming up significantly towards the end of January with some stratospheric warming taking place, even a good chance of sudden stratospheric warming taking place. Temperatures on 25 January over the Arctic are currently looking at -28c, -29c, -30c etc which is above the averages of -49c, -50c etc for this time of year. Not a sudden stratospheric warming quite yet on the long range outlook but still quite a bit of warming expected.

    This goes along with the models nicely that the high pressure will build over Scandinavia bringing us bitterly cold easterly winds. This could all end only so well :).

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 nagdefy


    https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/820283534439051264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

    Re. SSW

    P.s. I'm a complete novice regarding Stratospheric warming but isn't it crucial whether it's over the western or pacific hemisphere?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    nagdefy wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/820283534439051264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

    Re. SSW

    P.s. I'm a complete novice regarding Stratospheric warming but isn't it crucial whether it's over the western or pacific hemisphere?

    Most certainly nagdefy. That's like saying "Isn't it crucial whether the blocking is over the western or pacific hemisphere". It definitely is crucial or else you won't get the expected conditions.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    This chart is absolutely beautiful :).

    gfsnh-10-360.png?6

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 pedigree 6


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    This chart is absolutely beautiful :).

    Could you tell where blocking could occur in the northern hemisphere by that chart?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    pedigree 6 wrote: »
    Could you tell where blocking could occur in the northern hemisphere by that chart?

    Not a guarantee of a location but you can still estimate by where the stratospheric warming goes.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    Well, from what i've been reading this is more likely to be a displacement, rather than a split vortex, so there is the danger a lobe of the vortex will stay over Greenland. Although if that did transpire it's not much different to what we have now - a weakish vortex which still has enough oomph to inhibit blocking near Greenland. Still it does seem to be our best shot of a sustained cold outbreak in the weeks ahead. I wonder will the effects of it show up quicker in the troposphere, given there is not a very powerful vortex this winter


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Well, from what i've been reading this is more likely to be a displacement, rather than a split vortex, so there is the danger a lobe of the vortex will stay over Greenland. Although if that did transpire it's not much different to what we have now - a weakish vortex which still has enough oomph to inhibit blocking near Greenland. Still it does seem to be our best shot of a sustained cold outbreak in the weeks ahead. I wonder will the effects of it show up quicker in the troposphere, given there is not a very powerful vortex this winter

    I'd still be up to that, I love this bland weather. Winter 2005/06 was very similar and then we had the extremely good Summer of 2006! Here's hoping it will be like that.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 Redsunset


    Sorry folks, I've being living in Poland and doing alot of skiing the last while and just bring skipping in and out of here. Yes hopefully a SSW can be produced and give Ireland some much needed proper winter conditions . All depends on where polar vortex lopes end up in the event of displacement or split. I don't see a split occurring. And mild can often be the outcome if on the wrong side of things.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Yep, very disappointing today. The Stratospheric warming is still consistent on the GFS with the same warming expected BUT the AO is trending very positive :(.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Yep, very disappointing today. The Stratospheric warming is still consistent on the GFS with the same warming expected BUT the AO is trending very positive :(.

    According to Chino over on Netweather, it won't technically be a ssw. If one does occur there is usually a lag effect before the effects of it begin to show in the troposphere, so the AO could go positive before that happens

    The UK met office aren't factoring the warming into their long range forecast so far, but they do mention the possibility of us returning to a mid Atlantic high around the middle of February. I have a strong inkling we will see snow in March. Although I am not really interested in snow by then, unless it's an exceptional event.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ArKl0w



    The UK met office aren't factoring the warming into their long range forecast so far, but they do mention the possibility of us returning to a mid Atlantic high around the middle of February. I have a strong inkling we will see snow in March. Although I am not really interested in snow by then, unless it's an exceptional event.

    Yeah that's my thinking too,blooming nuisance when it comes then ,delays spring and melts by noon
    So you get icy roads night and morning

    There was a significant snowfall in Wicklow and Wexford that stayed on the ground for a week in march 1978
    I don't know the date but it was 6 or 8 inches here by the sea and over a foot on higher ground


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ArKl0w




  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    ArKl0w wrote: »

    The ECMWF shows some warming to take place on the 29th at 30 hPa i.e. the Troposphere but it's not up to the standard of the warming at 10 hPa.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    Judah Cohen @judah47

    What am I watching with the #polarvortex? If PV displaced deep into W Eurasia could setup a #cold easterly flow into #Europe for late winter.

    Seems like a big if to me. A tweet to get attention.
    A daughter vortex/lobe of vortex could easily be displaced to Greenland after an initial shift. It would be much better to get a split vortex but that does not seem likely to happen.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ArKl0w


    Mr Bastardi suggests the Strat event will favour North America and BOY he was right about Europe so far

    So I guess it's time to forget about cold and Snow in Ireland or northeasterly' until next winter

    https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/823235632457715714


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    ArKl0w wrote: »
    So I guess it's time to forget about cold and Snow in Ireland or northeasterly' until next winter

    Until Spring***

    :D

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    The GFS and ECMWF still show some significant stratospheric warming at the end of this week at the same strength as the past few days. Not much signs of it elongating into the Troposphere though which is very unfortunate.

    The AO is trending positive but then the trend goes towards neutral at the very end of the period (4th/5th February). I think it will stay positive at least until mid-February.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 pedigree 6


    ArKl0w wrote: »
    Mr Bastardi suggests the Strat event will favour North America and BOY he was right about Europe so far

    So I guess it's time to forget about cold and Snow in Ireland or northeasterly' until next winter

    See. We don't always get cold conditions from a SSW event in this country.;)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ArKl0w


    pedigree 6 wrote: »
    See. We don't always get cold conditions from a SSW event in this country.;)

    Well it does depend on where it is,quit trolling me,here and elsewhere,you are now on ignore :mad:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 pedigree 6


    ArKl0w wrote: »
    Well it does depend on where it is,quit trolling me,here and elsewhere,you are now on ignore :mad:

    What the hell?? Sorry.:eek:
    I didn't realise I did anything wrong.

    Say what you want then. I won't say anything again.

    I've never been called a troll before.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    pedigree 6 wrote: »
    What the hell?? Sorry.:eek:
    I didn't realise I did anything wrong.

    Say what you want then. I won't say anything again.

    I've never been called a troll before.

    Yeah, I don't see how you trolled him. Arkl0w, that was really uncalled for like what the hell?

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 nagdefy


    ArKl0w wrote: »
    Well it does depend on where it is,quit trolling me,here and elsewhere,you are now on ignore :mad:

    The way i read Pedigree's post Arkl0w is that he was agreeing with you that an SSW doesn't necessarily bring cold to Europe.

    Think ye just have wires crossed... It happens us all.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 pedigree 6


    ArKl0w wrote: »
    Well it does depend on where it is,quit trolling me,here and elsewhere,you are now on ignore :mad:

    Right to try to defend myself from being called a troll.
    Maybe I should show the bigger picture.
    Arklow posted this in the farming and forestry forum where I naturally post too.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057665075&page=26
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=102311014&postcount=376

    You can also see my reply.
    I then sent Arklow a pm of a YouTube clip from Gavin Partridge explaining SSW and the possible implications and that we could just as easily end up with a southwesterly air flow off the atlantic.

    Sorry mods delete this post if you want but I thought I should post something to get the full picture.
    I was being a bit cheeky in posting the "See. We don't always get cold air here from a SSW.;)".
    But I meant no malice in it and I thought it would be taken up as such.

    This is an open forum about weather and like any forum posters will have differing viewpoints and everyone should be welcome without having to resort to blocking posters.

    Anyway that's all.

    I will continue posting here and elsewhere and I hope you will too Arklow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    Well, this might be scraping the barrel- but the cfs model has been consistently showing a blocked March - they did the same in March 2013.

    Joe Bastardi might be right, but he has often being wrong in the past. Also in a SSW event most of the time( 75 per cent of the time) it leads to a cold solution.

    Although given our luck- or rather lack of luck this winter - blocking will probably end up in the wrong place leading to mild air over us.


    I would sooner listen to the experts over on the netweather forum to see what their views are before giving up. Before any effects show up, we will probably have to deal with a resurgent Atlantic as a response before any blocking high shows up.

    What ever happens i bet we will see pointless snow showers in March.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    I think it's most certainly safe to say that it's definitely not a SUDDEN stratospheric warming but it is a very significant stratospheric warming.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    ?page=35

    "Again we don't know how things will exactly work out tropospherically, but in my experience once we have that wave 2 upwell modelled across the board at day 10 then we know that the trop output will all have slightly different paths in the modelling but we end up with the same result. Best chance of deep cold this winter coming up"

    As Sryan' says a significant warming has taken place
    Will we be lucky with the forecasted split of the Vortex? There is a danger we get stuck on the mild side of any cold break, as has been spoken about before.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    So according to the experts over on netweather a technical SSW has occurred.

    Hopefully this leads to a sustained cold spell, rather than something brief as M.T. seems to think so.
    He seems to be siding with the GFS view of things. Although that model in the past has been known to be too progressive in shunting away blocking highs in the past.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    So according to the experts over on netweather a technical SSW has occurred.

    Hopefully this leads to a sustained cold spell, rather than something brief as M.T. seems to think so.
    He seems to be siding with the GFS view of things. Although that model in the past has been known to be too progressive in shunting away blocking highs in the past.

    A technical BUT an extremely weak SSW. The zonal winds at 10hPa are -0.1 m/s which is very weak and could potentially be the weakest SSW on record unless they go more negative over the next few days but I don't expect any further drops, I expect the zonal winds to go back into positive territory.

    Meanwhile, the AO is trending very negative up to 16 February. Very interesting but unfortunately, the NAO is still trending rather positive and for a better chance of a sustained cold spell, you need the NAO to go negative. :(

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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